QB comparisons over first 3 years

[roy_miami]

Looking at DYAR stats for a lot of known or elite QBs through the years, I like DYAR or DVOA to compare QBs over different eras because as we know the game has changed a lot and some of the numbers don't compare well back to even 5 years ago. These are for their first 3 seasons playing significant time, so Rodgers begins in his 4th year in the league. And a few QBs like Stafford missed most of one of their first 3 years so I skipped a year. The interesting one for me was Beldsoe, because I find Tannehill and Bledsoe have a lot of similarities.

You will note that most "elite" or franchise QBs have gotten into the top 10 in DYAR within their first 3 years and I believe all of them have made it to the playoffs in that time. Flacco is the only one to not make it to the top 10 in DYAR within his first 3 years, he actually just achieved that for the first time this year. Again, besides Flacco, all Super Bowl winners in recent times have been in the top 10 in DYAR and they displayed that ability very early. Do we have an anomaly on our hands like Mr. Flacco? We'll see, but its a big year upcoming for Mr. Tannehill.

PS: Statistically its looking like we're in a hell of a drought as far as elite QBs go. You've got Luck, Wilson, Foles, Kaepernick and Melt Ryan as possibilities, but none are obvious locks like a Warner or Manning. Wilson aligns well with Brady though.

tannehill 25 26 12 luck 19 14 10 wilson 8 9 14 kaepernick 13 8 28 dalton 12 20 16 newton 15 14 17 flacco 19 14 11 ryan 7 13 5 Roethlisberger 11 7 10 E. Manning 9 13 40 Rivers 6 16 3 brees 21 40 7 brady 13 9 9 warner 1 7 1 p. manning 12 2 1 rodgers 12 9 4 romo 8 4 11 palmer 17 2 3 cutler 33 8 4 stafford 45 5 6 sanchez 38 20 31 bledsoe 28 9 25 favre 12 27 4 mcnabb 15 18 24 vick 16 41 28

 

[SkapePhin]

While these metrics are interesting and could be used directionally, it also assumes that we look at these QBs in a vacuum not accounting for the team around them in those years. It's not surprising that guys like Wilson, Warner, M. Ryan and Brees had good metrics early on when you consider they all had strong running games and substantial weapons around them. Tannehill has not had this luxury. I know many chalk that up as an excuse, but it's reality....

In Year 1, he had a completely bare WR corps and a modest running game. In Year 2, the protection was historically bad. In Year 3, many of the pieces around him improved, but there is still room for improvement. It's not like he was gifted with a pro bowl RB, HOF TE, beast WRs and solid OL like M. Ryan from the get-go.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

Only thing I'd add is that you really should compare players by their first three pro years. Not their first three years as a starter. A number of these guys had 1+ year of time on the bench to learn and tweak with pro coaching.

No question that the 2 players who have had far and away the most impressive rookie + sophomore years since Danny are Big Ben and Russ. Not even close.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

The interesting one for me was Beldsoe, because I find Tannehill and Bledsoe have a lot of similarities.

I agree with this. Bledsoe was one of the first comparisons I thought of when Tannehill came out of college. Best I could come up with was a combination of Bledsoe and Danny White, who was much more athletic than Bledsoe and more of a run threat.

Interestingly, Tannehill's release point has continued to drop slightly, just like Bledsoe's did as his career progressed.

I'll wait for the adjustments to pan out. Not that we have much choice. Tannehill is obviously going to be here, just like our stadium. As always, my warning is that the likelihood is not what the optimists want it to be. I know probability. From my early days in Las Vegas, and continuing once the internet exploded, my greatest shock is how poorly true odds are estimated by the vast majority of the population. The major fault is relying on exceptions as opposed to the bulk. Find one sample that fits our purpose, or a handful, and we're good to go. Disregard that the overwhelming numbers point sharply in the other direction, or toward more of the same.

I will say I saw an absolutely priceless comment on a rival site last night. One poster claimed that Tannehill and Russell Wilson, "are essentially interchangeable players."

Larry King decades ago on WIOD had an annual Wacko Night. It was intentional.

 

[BlueFin]

Only thing I'd add is that you really should compare players by their first three pro years. Not their first three years as a starter. A number of these guys had 1+ year of time on the bench to learn and tweak with pro coaching.

No question that the 2 players who have had far and away the most impressive rookie + sophomore years since Danny are Big Ben and Russ. Not even close.

This....Rodgers had the benefit of sitting and learning....Tannehill was thrown to the wolves with a bad supporting cast.....apples and oranges.

 

[Krateness]

I posted in another thread. After 3 years of sitting on the bench, behind Favre nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers produced this in his 3rd year of starting...

28 TDs - 11 INTs - 3,392 YDs - 101.2 RATE

Pretty close to someone isn't it?

 

[Fins1971]

I will say I saw an absolutely priceless comment on a rival site last night. One poster claimed that Tannehill and Russell Wilson, "are essentially interchangeable"

The big difference between RT and RW is escapability. Wilson seems to be able to sense it better. This is probably due to doing it so many more times than RT in college.
Over those 3 years Wilson has been sacked almost as much as RT. Only 20 sacks less and most of those are Wilson escaping and throwing the ball away. Something RT has been getting better at but has not yet perfected. Again just a matter or more reps. Hopefully next year is the year RT puts it all together.
But for this year I plan to bet some money on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in the playoffs.

 

[Fins1971]

I posted in another thread. After 3 years of sitting on the bench, behind Favre nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers produced this in his 3rd year of starting...

28 TDs - 11 INTs - 3,392 YDs - 101.2 RATE

Pretty close to someone isn't it?

Hopefully this is a premonition.
Arod followed that season up with 30-7 season and took packers to playoffs with 11-5 record

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

The big difference between RT and RW is escapability. Wilson seems to be able to sense it better. This is probably due to doing it so many more times than RT in college.
Over those 3 years Wilson has been sacked almost as much as RT. Only 20 sacks less and most of those are Wilson escaping and throwing the ball away. Something RT has been getting better at but has not yet perfected. Again just a matter or more reps. Hopefully next year is the year RT puts it all together.
But for this year I plan to bet some money on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in the playoffs.

Wilson looks to escape earlier. Tannehill attempts to stand in the pocket and throw. While the sack quantity is similar, how and when they are sacked couldn't be more different.

Wilson and Tannehill are completely different QBs in completely different systems with radically different supporting casts.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

I agree with this. Bledsoe was one of the first comparisons I thought of when Tannehill came out of college.

WTF? Tannehill and Bledsoe are completely different players. Way to show that your football "knowledge" is based on numbers on paper and not actually watching football.

 

[Shabam88]

Wtf are dyar and dvoa....stopped reading after those

 

[Spiff]

The big difference between RT and RW is escapability. Wilson seems to be able to sense it better. This is probably due to doing it so many more times than RT in college. Over those 3 years Wilson has been sacked almost as much as RT. Only 20 sacks less and most of those are Wilson escaping and throwing the ball away. Something RT has been getting better at but has not yet perfected. Again just a matter or more reps. Hopefully next year is the year RT puts it all together. But for this year I plan to bet some money on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in the playoffs.

The big difference is that Wilson has an Oline that can protect him. He's been sacked only 20 times fewer than Tannehill with this Oline? Wow. Didn't expect that. To me this seems Wilson and Tannehill are on par when it comes to escaping the pass rush.

 

[Fins1971]

The big difference is that Wilson has an Oline that can protect him. He's been sacked only 20 times fewer than Tannehill with this Oline? Wow. Didn't expect that. To me this seems Wilson and Tannehill are on par when it comes to escaping the pass rush.

No, Wilson has escaped those 20 sacks and made plays where RT has held the ball too long and caused at least 20 sacks over his 3 years he could have avoided. RT has been getting better at it this year. Just needs more reps and keep improving

 

[Vaark]

It's too bad we can't quantify how many games HC's have lost their teams by calling il-advised time outs, starting the likes of OL turnstyles like Dallas Thomas, refusing to play rookies until necessary like Billy Turner, refusing to replace OC dinosaurs unless their own jobs are in jeopardy if they don't, losing the confidence and respect of even some of their more level-headed players, etc. Wonder how deep into the red some would net out.

 

[Nawledge]

WTF? Tannehill and Bledsoe are completely different players. Way to show that your football "knowledge" is based on numbers on paper and not actually watching football.

All the guy talks about is gambling odds and happy adjustments and whatever other meaningless crap he says.