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QB/Defense

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FinzCrazy

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It seems clear to me that the primary draft debate from this site is whether the Phins should go QB or Defense in round 1... with a few OL sprinkled in here and there.

The most common arguement against a QB is that 1st round QBs rarely pan out... with this, I agree. However, in this years draft, we are potentially looking at 4 solid college QBs (assuming all declare) in Leinart, Quinn, Culter, and Young. I think it's doubtful that all four will be gone by the time we draft. With that being said, I say it's time for us to take chance on a 1st round QB and see if we can't mold him into a franchise QB.

Oh, for those who believe we should go Defense... how many 1st round draft picks do we have on our D right now? Not many, if any.

Another thing... I'll say again that in general, 1st round QBs don't pan out for most teams. BUT, in the history of the Miami Dolphins, we have selected 2 QBs in the first round: Bob Griese and Dan Marino... I'd say that 1st round QBs tend to do fairly well in South Florida.
 
I like the way people cite stats about QB busts but offer no data.

Here's a great article written by ckparrothead that addresses that myth
 
The question or argument isn't that a first round QB won't lead you to the promise land, it's the percentage or first round busts versus first round SB QBs which CK's article fails to evaluate. Thus 'no data' is presented detailing busts versus successes with first round QB.

Until I'm presented with facts that conclude otherwise, I still will assume there are more QB busts then MVPs in the first round. That's why it's safer to go with a later round QB and groom him.
 
Here's another source that discusses top 10 picks:

http://www.drafthistory.com/articles/article53.html

Overall: a top ten QB pick is a relatively safe choice, since the superstars tend to be high first round picks, and while there are definitely some busts, they're not as common as you'd think. Yes, you can find good QBs later in the draft, but I think the odds are weighted heavily against you. For every Brady there's going to be ten or more guys you've never heard of that didn't make it through camp.
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Summary

It's pretty clear from this sampling that the safest position for a top ten pick is offensive tackle. You get the highest percentage of superstars from that position, and the lowest number of busts. The most dangerous position, by far, is that of wide receiver, where there are a large number of busts and where the best players are also often drafted in later rounds. Quarterback is kind of a middle ground -- some busts, but also some of the best players come from top ten picks. Running back is probably the second safest pick in the top ten, since most of the notable runners of our time were top ten picks
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The winner is:

Offensive Tackles

Offensive tackles are like the anti-receivers. Nearly every major superstar offensive tackle was a top ten pick -- Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli, Jonathan Ogden, Willie Anderson, Chris Samuels and Kyle Turley were all top ten picks. How many busts? Very few -- Leonard Davis ended up playing as a guard which is a bit of a waste, Mike Williams is still kind of iffy but Bryant McKinnie looks like the real deal. Oh, and Jordan Gross was a starter on a Super Bowl team his rookie year, so there's that too.

Offensive tackle is, without a doubt, the safest position to pick in the top ten
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Celtkin said:
I like the way people cite stats about QB busts but offer no data.

Here's a great article written by ckparrothead that addresses that myth
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This whole argument should be on good vs. crappy scouts and who puts who where on the draft day war room. You cab blow a high pick on a defensive player just as much as a QB. It's all about the evaluation of talent...not the position. This whole discussion says the Fins should not draft a QB because there is a chance of a bust...NO KIDDING!
 
CK's article is good but oversimplifies the matter. There are far too many intangibles to consider when you look at Super Bowl teams and their quarterbacks.

A Super Bowl is won by a TEAM, not a quarterback. Teams generally have their dominant facets - with the Patriots, they had an excellent defense and a good offense. With the Buccaneers and Ravens, they had an unbelievable defense and their offense may as well have been a bunch of guys wearing old-time helmets and walking on their hands. With the Rams, they had a fantastic offense and a very good defense.

You cannot simply transplant Kurt Warner or Tom Brady to another team and expect the same results. You cannot take a QB who does not factor in to this scenario such as Peyton Manning and blame it on him. It is not his fault that his defense has been porous up until this year. He has had bad games in the playoffs. Last year, I wouldn't say it was his fault.

A quarterback is often a piece. Dan Marino went to one Super Bowl. It is not his fault that he never had a real running game or defense until his twilight years. The real factor here is TALENT. You need a talented quarterback. Fitting in with the team and the system is important, but a talented quarterback is what you need. It really doesn't matter where the quarterback was drafted or by what team. Unfortunately, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy, since any quarterback that succeeds is going to be considered talented.

Steve Young, by the way, would NEVER have been to the postseason with Tampa.
 
Not only are first round pick QBs not guaranteed to succeed, the odds are strongly against it. Even if you limit it to top 10 first round picks, the success rate is pretty horrible. Since 1980, 22 QBs have been taken in the top 10. Six have been good: Manning, McNair, Bledsoe, McNabb, Palmer and Vick. Three could be considered mediocre at best: KCollins, Jeff George, Carr and BLeftwich. EManning looks like he'll be good, but the jury is still out on Rivers. The other nine were horrific failures: Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Andre Ware, Trent Dilfer (well, maybe just sub-mediocre), Tim Couch and Joey Harrington. Alex Smith didn't do much this year, but it's too early to tell.

In other words, the "success" rate is about 25-30%, with a 20-25% chance of a mediocre Jay Fiedler/AJ Feeley quality QB, and about a 50% chance of a complete abortion. And again, that's looking at top 10 picks. If you go further down, you start to include the Jim Druckenmillers, Dan McGwires, Cade McNowns, Kyle Bollers, etc.

It's not surprising that many teams that have gone to Super Bowls had QBs that were drafted in the 1st round. Many of the starting QBs in the NFL were first round picks. Balanced against the 1st round QBs that went to Super Bowls, you have to consider the number of QBs taken after the 2nd round that have done it. In the past 11 Super Bowls, roughly since free agency, 12 of the 22 starting QBs were drafted after the 2nd round: Brady (3), Warner (2), Gannon, BJohnson, Delhomme, O'Donnell, Humphries, Rypien, and Hostetler.
 
bigmiamifan said:
The question or argument isn't that a first round QB won't lead you to the promise land, it's the percentage or first round busts versus first round SB QBs which CK's article fails to evaluate. Thus 'no data' is presented detailing busts versus successes with first round QB.

Until I'm presented with facts that conclude otherwise, I still will assume there are more QB busts then MVPs in the first round. That's why it's safer to go with a later round QB and groom him.
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You could make that same comment about ANY position, so what makes a late round QB a better risk than a late round anything else?
 
Phinadict said:
You could make that same comment about ANY position, so what makes a late round QB a better risk than a late round anything else?
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A late round QB is not a better risk than a late round anything else. But a 1st round QB is a bigger risk than a 1st round almost anything else. Not only because of the success/failure rate, but because if you get one of the duds, you generally have to commit at least 2-3 years and a huge amount of cash/cap money to them before you can declare them a dud and move on. When that happens, it usually takes that team at least 5 years to even get over .500.
 
This whole issue is a little premature....since we don't know the draft order, all the juniors that have entered the draft, or how players preformed at Senior Bowls & combines.

That being said, our recent history of high draft picks has been brutal. JJ & Wanny have really put this franchise in a hole with high round busts such as: JJ Johnson, John Avery, Yatil Green, Jamar Fletcher, Eddie Moore, & trading away several 1st & 2nd rounders. These are a few big reasons that Miami has been competitive but hasn't gotten over the hump in quite a few years.

These players represent "reaches" for positions that needed to be filled...with the exception of Green who had horrible luck with injuries. Now, I'd love to grab a stud QB if one is available...and there may be one. But I do not want Saban to reach too high just to fill a need...I think that drafting the best player available is the way to go if Miami picks lower than 15 or 16.

The lower rounds are much better for reaches. That way if you miss, it won't wreck your salary cap the way a 1st or 2nd round flop would. Just my opinion. I was extremely excited about the Dolphin draft last season and have full confidence that NS will do what is best for the lon-term health of this franchise.
 
DreamWeaver said:
This whole issue is a little premature....since we don't know the draft order, all the juniors that have entered the draft, or how players preformed at Senior Bowls & combines.

That being said, our recent history of high draft picks has been brutal. JJ & Wanny have really put this franchise in a hole with high round busts such as: JJ Johnson, John Avery, Yatil Green, Jamar Fletcher, Eddie Moore, & trading away several 1st & 2nd rounders. These are a few big reasons that Miami has been competitive but hasn't gotten over the hump in quite a few years.

These players represent "reaches" for positions that needed to be filled...with the exception of Green who had horrible luck with injuries. Now, I'd love to grab a stud QB if one is available...and there may be one. But I do not want Saban to reach too high just to fill a need...I think that drafting the best player available is the way to go if Miami picks lower than 15 or 16.

The lower rounds are much better for reaches. That way if you miss, it won't wreck your salary cap the way a 1st or 2nd round flop would. Just my opinion. I was extremely excited about the Dolphin draft last season and have full confidence that NS will do what is best for the lon-term health of this franchise.
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Completely agree with you. We must have 1st round picks that play and start games for five years in a row. If we can have our picks playing meaningful minutes in games then this will lead us to having much better success.
 
PhinFan0202 said:
Laron Landry in the 1st and Jay Cutler in the 2nd.
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Unless he really stinks it up in the senior bowl and workouts there will be no chance of him in the second unless we trade up. I doubt he even gets to the second round, but to our pick in the second round is very improbable.
 
The problem I have with this

When people say that a first round QB isnt/cant be successful

Thats saying a guy that has been great every level he has played in cant succeed but a guy who was average can
 
The problem is Qbs tend to get overrated because that position is the most important. The thing is you have to gamble sometimes. If you don't take big risks it is usually hard to get a big rewards unless you just get lucky. The Patriots weren't geniuses for taking Tom Brady. They had him as a low-round prospect just like the rest of the league. They just happened to pick about where he was slated to go. But the Dolphins really didn't need a QB in '83, but they took a risk on a QB that's stock had fallen a bit, but they liked and it payed divedends. And if our pick comes and the FO really likes Jay Cutler they need to take him.
 
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