ckparrothead
Premium Member
I suppose I could make this a really long post, but I figure I can get to the point pretty easily.
You all know about Pro Football Focus' stats by now. They track QB Pressures, QB Hits and QB Sacks.
I wanted to look at a couple of things.
Getting Pressure
I took a look at pass attempts plus sacks, divided by the number of pressures, hits and sacks combined together. The way to read this is, how many times does a guy drop back to pass against us before we get in his face one way or another. The number looks pretty good, it's 2.50 which means we've got a guy in the QB's face every 2.50 dropbacks.
As far as ranking goes though, this only ranks #10 in the league. I think the statistics confirm what we've all seen. The team has a high sack total, but doesn't apply the consistent pressure on the passer that the sack total would suggest. If you just looked at sacks, then you'd think Miami was among the top 3 or 4 pass rushing teams in the league....but, and I don't know about you guys, I have never felt like Miami was among the top 3 or 4 pass rushing units in the league this year. I think they're deadly when Cameron Wake is in the game, but they went up against a totally depleted Bills OL and couldn't get near enough pressure on Fitzpatrick, and there have been plenty of other games like that.
Preventing Pressure
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have actually been superb at preventing QB pressure. Use the same methodology and you get a number of 4.61, which means that our QBs feel pressure bearing down on them once every 4.61 dropbacks. This ranks #1 in the league, with the Vikings ranking #2 at 4.35 and the Ravens ranking #3 at 4.11.
I think this makes sense. We have a bonafied Pro Bowl franchise left tackle protecting Henne's blind side. On the right side we have one of the best right tackles in the league in Vernon Carey. We have had Jake Grove at center for most of the year and Justin Smiley at left guard. This isn't a highly paid offensive line for nothing. One big factor that helps explain this statistic is that Dan Henning knows how to protect a QB. He specializes in it. Between his protection calls with the backs and tight ends, Miami's extensive use of short passing, the little half-rolls that we execute, etc...Miami does a very good job of keeping defenders from bearing down on Chad Henne.
Managing Pressure
This is where things get a little more mixed. If Miami ranks among the best in the league in sacks, but is only #10 in pressures per pass...what does this suggest? This could suggest one of two things, I think. One would be, we've not been facing that many QBs that slip the pressure well and get rid of the football. I'm not sure I can agree with that as we've faced Peyton Manning, Tom Brady (twice), Drew Brees, this kid Josh Freeman, etc. The other suggestion would be that our pass rushers generally take down their target when they get in on him, rather than letting him escape.
I think the latter makes a lot of sense. Jason Taylor and Joey Porter are veteran sackmasters, literally two of the best that have played in the modern era. They tend to nail down their target pretty well when they get in there, and then Miami also relies on big tall, lanky and athletic defensive end/defensive tackle hybrids to get pressure. Altogether those guys (Porter, Taylor, Starks, Langford, Merling, McDaniel and Baker) get the QB down for a sack once every 3.6 times they get a pressure. I would expect that the big, lumbering square bodies at nose tackle, or generally speaking the linebackers that don't have the experience that Taylor and Porter do, or the defensive backs, would be less successful at getting the QB down when getting in for the pressure. Not as surprising then is that the rest of the team, Cameron Wake included, gets the QB down only once every 5.5 pressures.
Probably the most disturbing element of all of this is that if you look at the same phenomenon on the offensive side of the ball, the statistics are not so kind toward Chad Henne. If you look at the number of pressures taken by the QB, and compare them with the number of sacks, Chad Henne is second only to Aaron Rodgers when it comes to getting sacked per pressure. I wondered about this statistic to be honest, because it has been my perception that there are certain QBs in this league that are fantastic at really not taking the sack when pressure comes in on them. Some of the people that I would accuse of this preternatural ability to get rid of the ball and/or scramble from pressure before taking the sack, just from my own field observation and not having anything to do with statistics, would include first and foremost Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler, but also guys like Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, based on what we saw when we played them I would add Josh Freeman to that list.
What I found was the observation was generally observed in the statistic. I also found consistency in the statistic. For instance, last year with the Patriots, Matt Cassel was prone to getting sacked an inordinate number of times compared with how often he got pressured (once every 4.15 drops). Well, this year he's got virtually the same ratio (4.36). Kurt Warner is virtually the same this year (9.10) as last year (8.97). Jay Cutler is just a little worse this year (10.18) than last year (12.93) but still #3 in the league in this statistic. Kerry Collins is really good at managing pressure (8.50 in 2008, 10.5 in 2009), and Vince Young is even better (14.75 so far this year), so no surprise that the Titans are #2 in the league this year. Peyton Manning is as good (13.70) as you would expect this year, and was even better (15.40) a year ago. Jason Campbell was not that great at avoiding sacks a year ago (4.75) and likewise isn't that great at it this year (4.63). Kyle Orton was very decent (7.16) at avoiding sacks with the Bears, and now he's pretty decent at it (6.15) with the Broncos. Joe Flacco was not that great at avoiding sacks (4.83) as a rookie and he's not that great (4.77) at it as a sophomore. Brett Favre was really bad at avoiding sacks (4.30) a year ago, and he's really not that much better at it (5.05) with the Vikings despite being protected well. Ben Roethlisberger took a lot of sacks compared with his dropbacks (4.40) a year ago, and he's taking a lot compared with his dropbacks (5.00) this year.
What I'm trying to demonstrate is that these numbers don't appear to be random or meaningless. The numbers have seemed to hover around the same area for the same QBs from 2008 to 2009 whether he is on the same team or even if he switches teams. This number is therefore a defensible proxy for how good your QB is at scrambling and/or getting rid of the ball instead of taking a sack. Like any proxy, it's not perfect, and it carries exceptions, blips in the data that don't make particular sense, etc...but I found it to be pretty consistent.
The concerning part here is that if there was one criticism of Chad Henne coming out of Michigan (screw that, there were many) it was that he took sacks trying to stand tall in the pocket and deliver, and that he seemed very immobile.
Prognosis
This ties in with comments I had been making about how I really hope Chad Henne decides to take to his own athleticism, quickness, footwork and even diet with a blow torch and some duct tape this off season...because doing so helped Drew Brees take his game to a new level in San Diego, and I believe that it would help Henne take his game to a new level by giving him better springs to work with in the backfield, letting in a little more air for him to operate.
The other part is, we have to realize, and I think Tony Sparano does, that we're not as good a pressure team on defense as the sack statistics would lead us to believe. We're doing a good job of getting the sacks when we do get in there but we need to get in there more often and pressure the QB more if we want to go on this stretch run. This ties in with what some have been saying about Cam Wake's upside and how it will be key to get him going more if we want to get into the playoffs and ESPECIALLY if we want to do some damage in the playoffs.
The good news is that this week we play a team that can neither protect their QB from pressure (ranked #29 in the league), nor can they get pressure on defense (ranked #32). Since both of these are strengths for Miami, this seems a favorable matchup, especially now that we seem willing to use the extra pass protection to get our shoddy WRs open. But, we've been here before. The Bills were not good at protecting the passer (#30) or getting pressure (#29). One mistake we made there IMO was letting Wake get lost on the bench again (9 total snaps, 1 of them a coverage assignment), after he had absolutely DESTROYED them in the first matchup.
It burns me that Tony Sparano still tries to play the game of oh we can't control how often he gets on the field, we can't force the other team to show us the right package, etc. YES YOU CAN. You can put him in on more packages. You can modify the game plans to make him more viable in more packages. You, not the other team, always decide who goes in and how often.
Ok, I got sidetracked and this ended up longer than I intended. Oh well.
Peace out!
You all know about Pro Football Focus' stats by now. They track QB Pressures, QB Hits and QB Sacks.
I wanted to look at a couple of things.
Getting Pressure
I took a look at pass attempts plus sacks, divided by the number of pressures, hits and sacks combined together. The way to read this is, how many times does a guy drop back to pass against us before we get in his face one way or another. The number looks pretty good, it's 2.50 which means we've got a guy in the QB's face every 2.50 dropbacks.
As far as ranking goes though, this only ranks #10 in the league. I think the statistics confirm what we've all seen. The team has a high sack total, but doesn't apply the consistent pressure on the passer that the sack total would suggest. If you just looked at sacks, then you'd think Miami was among the top 3 or 4 pass rushing teams in the league....but, and I don't know about you guys, I have never felt like Miami was among the top 3 or 4 pass rushing units in the league this year. I think they're deadly when Cameron Wake is in the game, but they went up against a totally depleted Bills OL and couldn't get near enough pressure on Fitzpatrick, and there have been plenty of other games like that.
Preventing Pressure
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have actually been superb at preventing QB pressure. Use the same methodology and you get a number of 4.61, which means that our QBs feel pressure bearing down on them once every 4.61 dropbacks. This ranks #1 in the league, with the Vikings ranking #2 at 4.35 and the Ravens ranking #3 at 4.11.
I think this makes sense. We have a bonafied Pro Bowl franchise left tackle protecting Henne's blind side. On the right side we have one of the best right tackles in the league in Vernon Carey. We have had Jake Grove at center for most of the year and Justin Smiley at left guard. This isn't a highly paid offensive line for nothing. One big factor that helps explain this statistic is that Dan Henning knows how to protect a QB. He specializes in it. Between his protection calls with the backs and tight ends, Miami's extensive use of short passing, the little half-rolls that we execute, etc...Miami does a very good job of keeping defenders from bearing down on Chad Henne.
Managing Pressure
This is where things get a little more mixed. If Miami ranks among the best in the league in sacks, but is only #10 in pressures per pass...what does this suggest? This could suggest one of two things, I think. One would be, we've not been facing that many QBs that slip the pressure well and get rid of the football. I'm not sure I can agree with that as we've faced Peyton Manning, Tom Brady (twice), Drew Brees, this kid Josh Freeman, etc. The other suggestion would be that our pass rushers generally take down their target when they get in on him, rather than letting him escape.
I think the latter makes a lot of sense. Jason Taylor and Joey Porter are veteran sackmasters, literally two of the best that have played in the modern era. They tend to nail down their target pretty well when they get in there, and then Miami also relies on big tall, lanky and athletic defensive end/defensive tackle hybrids to get pressure. Altogether those guys (Porter, Taylor, Starks, Langford, Merling, McDaniel and Baker) get the QB down for a sack once every 3.6 times they get a pressure. I would expect that the big, lumbering square bodies at nose tackle, or generally speaking the linebackers that don't have the experience that Taylor and Porter do, or the defensive backs, would be less successful at getting the QB down when getting in for the pressure. Not as surprising then is that the rest of the team, Cameron Wake included, gets the QB down only once every 5.5 pressures.
Probably the most disturbing element of all of this is that if you look at the same phenomenon on the offensive side of the ball, the statistics are not so kind toward Chad Henne. If you look at the number of pressures taken by the QB, and compare them with the number of sacks, Chad Henne is second only to Aaron Rodgers when it comes to getting sacked per pressure. I wondered about this statistic to be honest, because it has been my perception that there are certain QBs in this league that are fantastic at really not taking the sack when pressure comes in on them. Some of the people that I would accuse of this preternatural ability to get rid of the ball and/or scramble from pressure before taking the sack, just from my own field observation and not having anything to do with statistics, would include first and foremost Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler, but also guys like Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, based on what we saw when we played them I would add Josh Freeman to that list.
What I found was the observation was generally observed in the statistic. I also found consistency in the statistic. For instance, last year with the Patriots, Matt Cassel was prone to getting sacked an inordinate number of times compared with how often he got pressured (once every 4.15 drops). Well, this year he's got virtually the same ratio (4.36). Kurt Warner is virtually the same this year (9.10) as last year (8.97). Jay Cutler is just a little worse this year (10.18) than last year (12.93) but still #3 in the league in this statistic. Kerry Collins is really good at managing pressure (8.50 in 2008, 10.5 in 2009), and Vince Young is even better (14.75 so far this year), so no surprise that the Titans are #2 in the league this year. Peyton Manning is as good (13.70) as you would expect this year, and was even better (15.40) a year ago. Jason Campbell was not that great at avoiding sacks a year ago (4.75) and likewise isn't that great at it this year (4.63). Kyle Orton was very decent (7.16) at avoiding sacks with the Bears, and now he's pretty decent at it (6.15) with the Broncos. Joe Flacco was not that great at avoiding sacks (4.83) as a rookie and he's not that great (4.77) at it as a sophomore. Brett Favre was really bad at avoiding sacks (4.30) a year ago, and he's really not that much better at it (5.05) with the Vikings despite being protected well. Ben Roethlisberger took a lot of sacks compared with his dropbacks (4.40) a year ago, and he's taking a lot compared with his dropbacks (5.00) this year.
What I'm trying to demonstrate is that these numbers don't appear to be random or meaningless. The numbers have seemed to hover around the same area for the same QBs from 2008 to 2009 whether he is on the same team or even if he switches teams. This number is therefore a defensible proxy for how good your QB is at scrambling and/or getting rid of the ball instead of taking a sack. Like any proxy, it's not perfect, and it carries exceptions, blips in the data that don't make particular sense, etc...but I found it to be pretty consistent.
The concerning part here is that if there was one criticism of Chad Henne coming out of Michigan (screw that, there were many) it was that he took sacks trying to stand tall in the pocket and deliver, and that he seemed very immobile.
Prognosis
This ties in with comments I had been making about how I really hope Chad Henne decides to take to his own athleticism, quickness, footwork and even diet with a blow torch and some duct tape this off season...because doing so helped Drew Brees take his game to a new level in San Diego, and I believe that it would help Henne take his game to a new level by giving him better springs to work with in the backfield, letting in a little more air for him to operate.
The other part is, we have to realize, and I think Tony Sparano does, that we're not as good a pressure team on defense as the sack statistics would lead us to believe. We're doing a good job of getting the sacks when we do get in there but we need to get in there more often and pressure the QB more if we want to go on this stretch run. This ties in with what some have been saying about Cam Wake's upside and how it will be key to get him going more if we want to get into the playoffs and ESPECIALLY if we want to do some damage in the playoffs.
The good news is that this week we play a team that can neither protect their QB from pressure (ranked #29 in the league), nor can they get pressure on defense (ranked #32). Since both of these are strengths for Miami, this seems a favorable matchup, especially now that we seem willing to use the extra pass protection to get our shoddy WRs open. But, we've been here before. The Bills were not good at protecting the passer (#30) or getting pressure (#29). One mistake we made there IMO was letting Wake get lost on the bench again (9 total snaps, 1 of them a coverage assignment), after he had absolutely DESTROYED them in the first matchup.
It burns me that Tony Sparano still tries to play the game of oh we can't control how often he gets on the field, we can't force the other team to show us the right package, etc. YES YOU CAN. You can put him in on more packages. You can modify the game plans to make him more viable in more packages. You, not the other team, always decide who goes in and how often.
Ok, I got sidetracked and this ended up longer than I intended. Oh well.
Peace out!
