QB Ratings

[VManis]

Whether its Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper I often see people pointing to the QBR when trying to make a case of whether a QB played well in a game. The problem is, any one game is too small of a sampling to effectively calculate a QBR.

Case in point. Yesterday Joey had 19 competitions on 35 attempts for 201 yards, no TDs no Ints. This equates to a very pedestrian QBR of 71.25. But had Chambers managed to stay in bounds on the flea flicker and score rather then going out at the 1 then Joey's QB rating would have jumped to 80.89. Still not a knock your socks off rating but a huge swing based on 1 yard that Joey had little influence over. Over the course of a season those kinds of plays seem to have a way of balancing themselves out with spectacular catches and the like but within the context of a single game they can have an enormous impact on a QB's rating.

 

[dolphin_safe]

Could you share the formula for determining QBR. You make a good point. Drops should be factored in as well as teams W/L.

 

[adamprez2003]

Whether its Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper I often see people pointing to the QBR when trying to make a case of whether a QB played well in a game. The problem is, any one game is too small of a sampling to effectively calculate a QBR.

Case in point. Yesterday Joey had 19 competitions on 35 attempts for 201 yards, no TDs no Ints. This equates to a very pedestrian QBR of 71.25. But had Chambers managed to stay in bounds on the flea flicker and score rather then going out at the 1 then Joey's QB rating would have jumped to 80.89. Still not a knock your socks off rating but a huge swing based on 1 yard that Joey had little influence over. Over the course of a season those kinds of plays seem to have a way of balancing themselves out with spectacular catches and the like but within the context of a single game they can have an enormous impact on a QB's rating.

great point. there are two criteria that are overweighted by qb rating IMO - TDs and Ints. Not that they shouldnt be factored in but the weight given them is huge, more than they deserve. Its a simplistic formula that needs to be tweaked

 

[Pocoloco]

Joey Harrington has a QB rating of 65.7, which is about the same as his career rating of 67.9. Here are his ratings for the weeks he played, which I feel represent a large enough sample (213 pass attempts) to be representative of what he is

Week 5= 58.2 (@ NE, loss)
Week 6= 68.6 (@ NYJ, loss)
Week 7= 64.9 (GB, loss)
Week 8= bye
Week 9= 66.8 (@ Chi, win)
Week 10= 71.3 (KC, win)

source: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889


Now Harrington seems to be coming around slightly, but the overwhelming impression I have is that he is backup material. He's younger than Frerotte, has more arm strength than Fielder, and makes good reads at the line, but is still not our future. We can blame Chambers and McMichael all we want for specific plays, but his rating has been remarkably consistent through his starts, and his career.

It would be a mistake to credit Harrington with our last two wins. An improved o-line (especially the right side) has given Ronnie Brown the opportunity he deserves, and our improved secondary has played better than they are.

 

[IluvJuMiami]

Joey Harrington has a QB rating of 65.7, which is about the same as his career rating of 67.9. Here are his ratings for the weeks he played, which I feel represent a large enough sample (213 pass attempts) to be representative of what he is

Week 5= 58.2 (@ NE, loss)
Week 6= 68.6 (@ NYJ, loss)
Week 7= 64.9 (GB, loss)
Week 8= bye
Week 9= 66.8 (@ Chi, win)
Week 10= 71.3 (KC, win)

source: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889


Now Harrington seems to be coming around slightly, but the overwhelming impression I have is that he is backup material. He's younger than Frerotte, has more arm strength than Fielder, and makes good reads at the line, but is still not our future. We can blame Chambers and McMichael all we want for specific plays, but his rating has been remarkably consistent through his starts, and his career.

It would be a mistake to credit Harrington with our last two wins. An improved o-line (especially the right side) has given Ronnie Brown the opportunity he deserves, and our improved secondary has played better than they are.

I agree. And for some reason it was more evident to me yesterday than any other Sunday that Harrington is not the future though he threw no interceptions and managed the game well. I like Harrington. He's young, he seems at times that all he lacks is the coaching that evaded him in Detroit, looks to have the raw talent, players(atleast on this team) seem to respond to him, but yesterday he had a significant amount of time in the backfield to sit and make the throws, and the guy couldn't do it on a consistant basis. He's still an upgrade over the Daunte that started our first 4 games but he's not our future QB IMO.

 

[PhinsRock]

I like Joey alot, and hope he turns it around, but I just don't see enough accuracy in his throws and see him only as a good backup. Can't wait to see what Daunte does when he plays healthy behind a decent OL. Till then I'll stay a Joey supporter and wish him well.

 

[2413fanphins]

I like this thread. people who know WTF they are talking about.

the thread I just off of, something about joey and his quick decisions I got flamed something fierce for pointing out facts and coveting joey as the future franchise quarterback.

I also look to qb rating as a baromter for a qb's success cuz that what the rest of the world looks at. at this point in the year daunte still has a better rating than joey. obviously were going joey for awhile and thats fine but noone will convince me he beat the bears with his three tds or beat the chiefs yesterday. one guy went so far as to try and tell me joey has turned our losing season around.


again your point on his having days in the backfield to make decisons. I pointed out that the first half dozen times he threw to chambers was airmailed and on tv you could see the frustration in chambers facial expression. but to the joey homers, they were overthrows to avoid bad decisions that lead to sacks and turnovers. so hurray joey again.

you both make very good points and I most def agree with them.
go phins

 

[Pocoloco]

Could you share the formula for determining QBR. You make a good point. Drops should be factored in as well as teams W/L.

http://www.supernfl.com/QBRating.html

this site explains the rating formula is down-to-earth terms that I can understand. Basically, only four things really count for this rating; completion %, avg. yards per attempt, TDs and Ints.

Although I think the rating formula is a fairly reliable indicator of how well a quaterback is playing, I agree that it's simplicity does downplay other aspects of a Qbs performance, which are arguably as important. I've heard several people on this board generally comment on three different things with regard to Joey's QB rating:
1) receiver drops
2) Ints that bounce off receivers
3) balls thrown away to avoid mistakes

Some people say this happens to every Qb anyway, so it's a common denominator. I'm not entirely convinced by that argument. It should be relatively simple to adjust the formula and demonstrate that 'fact' (well, if box scores recorded these sorts of stats it would be). Somethings drops and bounces are partially the QBs fault (maybe he threw them off-target, or too hard), so maybe a drop could count for half a completion, or a bounce as half an Int, or something like that. Balls thrown away might count only slightly, or perhaps even positively.

But there are other things that would be harder (but not impossible) to fit in the formula.
1) rushing yards
2) avg. yards after QB audible
3) sacks taken (maybe part of rushing? Daunte would go way down)

I'm sure there are alternate rating calculations out there somewhere. I just don't know them. The point is, if these things were included, Joey's rating would go up. That should show everyone that he is a better quarterback than his ratings show. Personally, I just don't think he is that much better. In his case, the present rating system seems to pretty much get it right.

 

[VManis]

Could you share the formula for determining QBR. You make a good point. Drops should be factored in as well as teams W/L.

Even better. Use the calculator on this site which will figure out a QBR based on either the NFL or NCAA formula or even the Arena League if that interests you.

http://www.primecomputing.com/

 

[VManis]

Joey Harrington has a QB rating of 65.7, which is about the same as his career rating of 67.9. Here are his ratings for the weeks he played, which I feel represent a large enough sample (213 pass attempts) to be representative of what he is

Week 5= 58.2 (@ NE, loss)
Week 6= 68.6 (@ NYJ, loss)
Week 7= 64.9 (GB, loss)
Week 8= bye
Week 9= 66.8 (@ Chi, win)
Week 10= 71.3 (KC, win)

source: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889


Now Harrington seems to be coming around slightly, but the overwhelming impression I have is that he is backup material. He's younger than Frerotte, has more arm strength than Fielder, and makes good reads at the line, but is still not our future. We can blame Chambers and McMichael all we want for specific plays, but his rating has been remarkably consistent through his starts, and his career.

It would be a mistake to credit Harrington with our last two wins. An improved o-line (especially the right side) has given Ronnie Brown the opportunity he deserves, and our improved secondary has played better than they are.

I didn't start the thread to discuss Joey. God knows there are enough of those threads on this board. I was merely using his performance yesterday as an example of how the QBR is not a good indicator of how a QB played in a individual game.

 

[rafael]

Joey Harrington has a QB rating of 65.7, which is about the same as his career rating of 67.9. Here are his ratings for the weeks he played, which I feel represent a large enough sample (213 pass attempts) to be representative of what he is

Week 5= 58.2 (@ NE, loss)
Week 6= 68.6 (@ NYJ, loss)
Week 7= 64.9 (GB, loss)
Week 8= bye
Week 9= 66.8 (@ Chi, win)
Week 10= 71.3 (KC, win)

source: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889


Now Harrington seems to be coming around slightly, but the overwhelming impression I have is that he is backup material. He's younger than Frerotte, has more arm strength than Fielder, and makes good reads at the line, but is still not our future. We can blame Chambers and McMichael all we want for specific plays, but his rating has been remarkably consistent through his starts, and his career.

It would be a mistake to credit Harrington with our last two wins. An improved o-line (especially the right side) has given Ronnie Brown the opportunity he deserves, and our improved secondary has played better than they are.

I've been trying to point out the same thing for a while now. JH is what he has always been. People try to point to drops and bad bounces, but unless the receiving corps for the Dolphins, Lions and Ducks are all in on some big conspiracy, JH is an inaccurate QB.

I also agree that our improved OL and secondary play is the reason for our mini win streak. I don't necessarily agree that our secondary is playing better than they are. There's talent back there. Our early breakdowns were mental not physical.

 

[nuttie_buddie]

it also looks like as the season is progressing he is getting better.....and he has not turn this season aroung just yet....we have at least three games to win right now....joey is a good back-up and if does turn this season around should have a chance to start.....we dont want to be like the bear....but over all joey hopefully keeps us winning that means not throwing the game....Culpepper a speedy recovering and hopefully next year we will have these two QB again Daunte r starter and Joey are backup:dolphins:

 

[zonk4ever]

as the saying goes: "chicks dig the longball" and until joey can add that pass to his arsenal, he's a nice backup. watching brees throw deep you can't help but notice the accuracy even though his arm strength is average same goes for pennington and even brady to some effect. Some guys have it. Some guys don't. I don't know if you can "improve" that particular aspect of throwing.

 

[DolfanDonny]

Whether its Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper I often see people pointing to the QBR when trying to make a case of whether a QB played well in a game. The problem is, any one game is too small of a sampling to effectively calculate a QBR.

Case in point. Yesterday Joey had 19 competitions on 35 attempts for 201 yards, no TDs no Ints. This equates to a very pedestrian QBR of 71.25. But had Chambers managed to stay in bounds on the flea flicker and score rather then going out at the 1 then Joey's QB rating would have jumped to 80.89. Still not a knock your socks off rating but a huge swing based on 1 yard that Joey had little influence over. Over the course of a season those kinds of plays seem to have a way of balancing themselves out with spectacular catches and the like but within the context of a single game they can have an enormous impact on a QB's rating.

QBR has NOTHING to do with ANYTHING. There are no awards given, and your team does not benefit for aspiring to or actually achieving some mythical "number." What matters is: wins and losses.

What possible difference would it make where a QB is "ranked." You play to win the game. If you as a QB can't win the game, you should be replaced by someone who can.

 

[Rebar71]

Case in point. Yesterday Joey had 19 competitions on 35 attempts for 201 yards, no TDs no Ints. This equates to a very pedestrian QBR of 71.25. But had Chambers managed to stay in bounds on the flea flicker and score rather then going out at the 1 then Joey's QB rating would have jumped to 80.89. Still not a knock your socks off rating but a huge swing based on 1 yard that Joey had little influence over.

Umm - actually, Joey has a lot of influence on the 1 yard difference. If his throw isn't so close to the sideline when it doesn't need to be, then Chambers doesn't have to do the tip-toe dance trying to stay in bounds.