QB? Should the Miami Dolphins draft a QB and avoid a potential Ryan Tannehill repeat? | Page 11 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

QB? Should the Miami Dolphins draft a QB and avoid a potential Ryan Tannehill repeat?

Good reply
Correct on quite a few points

BUT

When the team isn’t playing well and it happens, once in a while you need your QB to carry the team. You gotta put the team on your back. It’s not gonna happen every time but we really haven’t seen Tua do it once
It makes you wonder
Up to this point he’s not that guy, he’s good but really not upper echelon no matter what the numbers look like
People get fooled by stats
Guys like Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers had awesome fantasy stats but they ****ing sucked in fourth quarters when down. Never saw so many fourth quarter picks in my life, those guys were so overrated
I guess the jury is still out on Tua
Please don't think I'm nitpicking you.

It was 35-14 at the start of the 4th quarter against the Ravens. Miami scored 28 pts in that 4th quarter. All 4 scores were TD passes by Tua. Didn't he put the team on his back in that 4th quarter?
 
I posted this in the other Tua thread but I'll copy/paste it here and would love some feedback. I've been pondering this for the last couple months. We all like Tua but we also all seem to think that 90% of QBs are either disappointing or overpaid these days. We all want a franchise QB but we also want money to spend on the team, too. It's tough to predict where we'll be in 2025.


This is actually an interesting topic believe it or not...and it has very little, if anything, to do with Tua himself.

I think we all appreciate that Tua is productive but your feelings on this should tie to how much he's going to cost and whether or not it's good for the Miami Dolphins to sink that into him long-term.

Look at all the QBs who made the Super Bowl from the last 20 or so years who were on rookie deals:

Hurts
Burrow
Mahomes
Goff
Wentz
Wilson
Kaepernick
Eli Manning
Roethlisberger
Grossman
Brady

Now look at the QBs who made it on 2nd/3rd deals but who were generally viewed as averaged / replaceable:

Stafford
Garoppolo
Newton
Ryan
Flacco
Hasselbeck
McNabb
Gannon
Dilfer
Warner

The point here is that it doesn't take an all-time great or HoF QB to reach the Super Bowl and moreover, having such a QB doesn't guarantee you'll get more than 1 or maybe 2 shots at it. Peyton dominated with the Colts but only made it twice (until reaching two more with Denver). Brees dominated with the Saints and only made it once. Philip Rivers famously never got there at all despite some incredible seasons in San Diego.


If you remove some of the repeat offenders that skew the data (guys like Brady, Peyton, Mahomes who were all-time greats who got there repeatedly) you can actually make a case that the best (or at least most common) way to get to the Super Bowl is with a good team that features a rookie-contract QB (or an equally-cheap one).

It makes sense...you have to find a hack somewhere. If you have a great team, it's probably an expensive one. Those roster spots won't all be rookie-contract players. Finding a cheap QB is a HUGE bonus that offers incredible advantage over the rest of the field.

Believe it or not, this is kind of the meta game that's happening in the NFL.

Roughly 50% of QBs in the Super Bowl these days are rookie-contract players and the majority are relatively cheap QBs with many of the other guys being slightly above-average veterans like Matt Hasselbeck, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco who happen to be on the right team at the right time with the right players and coaching supporting them. Without the Brady's and Mahomes' there to skew the data in favor of the narrative that "only elite QBs get there" we see something very different among the various year-to-year Super Bowl match-ups.

The relatively low-cost of the QB plays a huge role and is often their biggest feature. From the random guys like Rex Grossman and Colin Kaepernick to the long-term starters like Roethlisberger, Mahomes and Wilson who simply joined great teams and won the Lombardi in year #2...the list is actually shockingly long and the argument that a 2nd/3rd contract is a huge part of what actually shuts the window is somewhat compelling.

If that's truly the new modus operandi of the NFL then maybe the Dolphins should be planning to replace Tua regardless of how he plays? We can safely say he's not a physical freak like Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson and is thus unlikely to provide the "unstoppable" offenses they've had at their peak (blame this on a lack of mobility) and thus he's almost assured to become too expensive for his own good as a purely pocket passer should he earn a big extension (and that's not saying a thing about his being injured 5 of his 6 seasons as a starter at both Bama & Miami).

The Rams have made the Super Bowl twice in recent memory...each time with a different QB (Goff & Stafford). So have the Eagles (Wentz, Foles & Hurts). If the 49ers get there this year, they'll have done the same (Garoppolo & Purdy). Reaching the Super Bowl has so much to do with the team being good that maybe having turnover at QB isn't as bad as commonly thought. If the team is good, the QB is far more likely to have success anyway, right? Maybe you don't "have to" resign a QB just because he plays well?

I think we all understand the impulse to resign Mahomes, Jackson and maybe Allen to the high-priced contracts they've secured but the problem seems to be securing the "other" guys at reasonable prices. Too often we see a Tannehill at $30M or we're talking about some reasonably solid guy like Prescott, Wilson, Herbert, etc. at $40M. I think that's where teams go wrong. None of those QBs are bad...until you factor in the prices.


It's outside-the-box thinking compared with the conventional "you must secure your franchise QB" thinking which dominates internet forums but nonetheless, it's hard to ignore that Tua's biggest feature this year has been the fact that he only cost the Dolphins $10M. No other QB has produced like Tua on a per-dollar basis. The unfortunate reality is that a high-priced extension negates Tua's biggest strength.

It's pretty easy to like your QB when the team's roster is strong and the QB is still on his cheap rookie deal. The real question is whether it's better to retain Tua and buy him a bigger house with a $40M/yr salary or look at the possibility of spending that money on reinforcing the team itself. After all, it's not hard to imagine a young QB coming in and being successful on this team with an offensive-minded HC to hold his hand and with weapons like Mostert, Achane, Hill, Waddle, etc.

Another interesting feature of the "build the team" strategy is that drafting a QB who's a bust (e.g. Trey Lance) doesn't seem to upend the progress the team makes. The 49ers moved right along finding Purdy in the later rounds as did the Eagles with Hurts when his predecessor(s) failed.

So we get to the million dollar question....do we honestly think the Dolphins would consider passing up on Tua?

Eh, the pressure to re-sign and to validate Tua's selection seems high so I think Grier would err on the side of re-signing Tua. However, if the team fails to win a Play-off game this year that'll sting. And if Tua struggles with more injury next year it feels like all bets would be off.
I feel like this is the underappreciated post of the thread, and maybe it got a lot more love in the other Tua thread but I loved every line of it. I feel like I've spent the later years of my Dolphins fandom pining for a top-5 elite QB who was going to carry the team and basically be a plug-n-play offensive system like Peyton and Brady. That may be who Tua becomes, but it's not who he is today. I also really don't believe that Peyton or Brady ever walked onto a shitty team and carried them into a Superbowl -- those teams they joined were already world class on one side of the ball or the other. It would be hard to justify adding either onto a team that had no prospects of being great, and wherever they went they were surrounded by good talent. They manipulated their salaries to go big for a couple of years, and now look where those teams are.

As a Braves fan, I initially had a really hard time with how the Liberty-owned Braves under Alex Anthopolous were choosing to do business. They really never had any interest in Bryce Harper or any big name free agents. They've stuck to an interesting process of pushing their rookie contracts into extended and controlled contracts while continually trading for bad deals that teams want rid of and are willing to lose money to jettison. Atlanta plays an interesting game that appears to bring in a quantity of potentially talented players. What does this mean in football? I think it means you find ways to maximize what you get for your dollar even when that means you're going to lose your ace starter even at QB -- possibly. If drafting a young prospect QB with obvious talent and intangibles that will McDaniel's offense is the bridge we need to avoid a $40M QB, I'm not opposed to it if it means we're going to maximize the talent elsewhere too.

But the other rule of AA's game with the Braves is absolutely avoiding bad long term contracts. They want controllable salaries under extended deals, but they don't want long term contracts on players at bad market value that they can't easily get rid of.
 
Please don't think I'm nitpicking you.

It was 35-14 at the start of the 4th quarter against the Ravens. Miami scored 28 pts in that 4th quarter. All 4 scores were TD passes by Tua. Didn't he put the team on his back in that 4th quarter?
That was early Last year and Ravens had a hand in their own demise that day also
Watch that game again, they thought it was in the bag and looked lazy on the field in that fourth quarter
But Tua played great but hasnt had a comeback like that since. Now, that’s not gonna happen every day and don’t expect Tua to pull off that kind of magic all the time and I don’t expect others either
But there have been games this year that we needed him to do a little extra and he fell short
IMO I think he’s been talking to Marino too much because you can see that attitude when he’s on the field. He needs to reel it in a bit and work to his strengths and not Danny boys. He doesn’t have that kind of arm
Tua needs to realize that Wilson, Berrios and Craycraft can get you yards underneath and not to always go for the home run to Hill. But that also falls on McD
 
Lets just get Tua to sign a cheap contract and leave him bags of cash behind orchids of asia. Kraft and Brady did this for years. Tell me I'm wrong.
 
I posted this in the other Tua thread but I'll copy/paste it here and would love some feedback. I've been pondering this for the last couple months. We all like Tua but we also all seem to think that 90% of QBs are either disappointing or overpaid these days. We all want a franchise QB but we also want money to spend on the team, too. It's tough to predict where we'll be in 2025.


This is actually an interesting topic believe it or not...and it has very little, if anything, to do with Tua himself.

I think we all appreciate that Tua is productive but your feelings on this should tie to how much he's going to cost and whether or not it's good for the Miami Dolphins to sink that into him long-term.

Look at all the QBs who made the Super Bowl from the last 20 or so years who were on rookie deals:

Hurts
Burrow
Mahomes
Goff
Wentz
Wilson
Kaepernick
Eli Manning
Roethlisberger
Grossman
Brady

Now look at the QBs who made it on 2nd/3rd deals but who were generally viewed as averaged / replaceable:

Stafford
Garoppolo
Newton
Ryan
Flacco
Hasselbeck
McNabb
Gannon
Dilfer
Warner

The point here is that it doesn't take an all-time great or HoF QB to reach the Super Bowl and moreover, having such a QB doesn't guarantee you'll get more than 1 or maybe 2 shots at it. Peyton dominated with the Colts but only made it twice (until reaching two more with Denver). Brees dominated with the Saints and only made it once. Philip Rivers famously never got there at all despite some incredible seasons in San Diego.


If you remove some of the repeat offenders that skew the data (guys like Brady, Peyton, Mahomes who were all-time greats who got there repeatedly) you can actually make a case that the best (or at least most common) way to get to the Super Bowl is with a good team that features a rookie-contract QB (or an equally-cheap one).

It makes sense...you have to find a hack somewhere. If you have a great team, it's probably an expensive one. Those roster spots won't all be rookie-contract players. Finding a cheap QB is a HUGE bonus that offers incredible advantage over the rest of the field.

Believe it or not, this is kind of the meta game that's happening in the NFL.

Roughly 50% of QBs in the Super Bowl these days are rookie-contract players and the majority are relatively cheap QBs with many of the other guys being slightly above-average veterans like Matt Hasselbeck, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco who happen to be on the right team at the right time with the right players and coaching supporting them. Without the Brady's and Mahomes' there to skew the data in favor of the narrative that "only elite QBs get there" we see something very different among the various year-to-year Super Bowl match-ups.

The relatively low-cost of the QB plays a huge role and is often their biggest feature. From the random guys like Rex Grossman and Colin Kaepernick to the long-term starters like Roethlisberger, Mahomes and Wilson who simply joined great teams and won the Lombardi in year #2...the list is actually shockingly long and the argument that a 2nd/3rd contract is a huge part of what actually shuts the window is somewhat compelling.

If that's truly the new modus operandi of the NFL then maybe the Dolphins should be planning to replace Tua regardless of how he plays? We can safely say he's not a physical freak like Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson and is thus unlikely to provide the "unstoppable" offenses they've had at their peak (blame this on a lack of mobility) and thus he's almost assured to become too expensive for his own good as a purely pocket passer should he earn a big extension (and that's not saying a thing about his being injured 5 of his 6 seasons as a starter at both Bama & Miami).

The Rams have made the Super Bowl twice in recent memory...each time with a different QB (Goff & Stafford). So have the Eagles (Wentz, Foles & Hurts). If the 49ers get there this year, they'll have done the same (Garoppolo & Purdy). Reaching the Super Bowl has so much to do with the team being good that maybe having turnover at QB isn't as bad as commonly thought. If the team is good, the QB is far more likely to have success anyway, right? Maybe you don't "have to" resign a QB just because he plays well?

I think we all understand the impulse to resign Mahomes, Jackson and maybe Allen to the high-priced contracts they've secured but the problem seems to be securing the "other" guys at reasonable prices. Too often we see a Tannehill at $30M or we're talking about some reasonably solid guy like Prescott, Wilson, Herbert, etc. at $40M. I think that's where teams go wrong. None of those QBs are bad...until you factor in the prices.


It's outside-the-box thinking compared with the conventional "you must secure your franchise QB" thinking which dominates internet forums but nonetheless, it's hard to ignore that Tua's biggest feature this year has been the fact that he only cost the Dolphins $10M. No other QB has produced like Tua on a per-dollar basis. The unfortunate reality is that a high-priced extension negates Tua's biggest strength.

It's pretty easy to like your QB when the team's roster is strong and the QB is still on his cheap rookie deal. The real question is whether it's better to retain Tua and buy him a bigger house with a $40M/yr salary or look at the possibility of spending that money on reinforcing the team itself. After all, it's not hard to imagine a young QB coming in and being successful on this team with an offensive-minded HC to hold his hand and with weapons like Mostert, Achane, Hill, Waddle, etc.

Another interesting feature of the "build the team" strategy is that drafting a QB who's a bust (e.g. Trey Lance) doesn't seem to upend the progress the team makes. The 49ers moved right along finding Purdy in the later rounds as did the Eagles with Hurts when his predecessor(s) failed.

So we get to the million dollar question....do we honestly think the Dolphins would consider passing up on Tua?

Eh, the pressure to re-sign and to validate Tua's selection seems high so I think Grier would err on the side of re-signing Tua. However, if the team fails to win a Play-off game this year that'll sting. And if Tua struggles with more injury next year it feels like all bets would be off.
Well said and written!

Just one point, I think losing to Buffalo in this particular game, (specially if it is an easy win for Buffalo) will (should) sting a lot more than losing a playoff game!

The entire team has to go out there and show that they belong! If They don’t do that, it’s the beginning of an end!
Just my two cents.
 
I dont see Grier letting Tua go to another team. He will ride with Tua until end. It job security. even if we do not win SB.
 

The Miami Dolphins are in the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row but should QB be a focus in the NFL Draft given Tua Tagovailoa's future?

Ryan Tannehill was selected 8th overall in the 2012 NFL draft. The highest draft selection ever made by the Miami Dolphins on a quarterback. This was a player who was deemed a prospect that would allow the Dolphins to stop the quarterback carousel they have had since Dan Marino retired. The hype was justified. His former collegiate head coach, was also the Miami Dolphins new Offensive Coordinator. The way Tannehill played justified his 8th overall selection during his time at Texas A&M, thereby leading to hope. Hope for the Miami Dolphins fans.

Tannehill's tenure with the Dolphins was met with a lot of ups and downs. He played well enough to earn a second contract, where the Dolphins in 2015 re-signed him to a 6 year, 96 Million dollar contract. Which at that time was substantial. A large commitment to a player with a large history of injury concerns.

The Dolphins, after signing Tannehill to that contract, never saw him play a full season nor play in a playoff game. This eventually led to him being traded to the Titans for a bag of footballs. Basically, a salary clearing trade that was best for both teams.

Where am I going with all of this - history tends to repeat itself with the Miami Dolphins. Fast forward to the present and the Dolphins have a decision to make about Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, the Dolphins picked up Tua's 5th-year option, which will ensure that he will start the 2024, and 2025 seasons, but should they look to re-sign him to a lucrative deal, knowing the injury concerns assigned to Tua?

You need to also take into consideration the Miami Dolphins cap situation. Remember, this offseason, Connor Williams, Chris Wilkins, Robert Hunt and Andrew Van Ginkel are all unrestricted free agents.

Then, Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips, and Jevon Holland are all looking for contract extensions, with the latter being an unrestricted free agent.

Lastly, it’s not like the Miami Dolphins have a plethora of cap space, they are actually forecasted to be 41MM over the cap. This means a lot of restructures, cuts, trades, and potentially deferring to future years, which doesn’t fix the cap, just punts it to another year.

Do the Dolphins really want to add a 40 to 50 million cap hit on a starting quarterback with injury concerns? Or should they look to foster a team that is built to win.

The Dolphins can achieve this by drafting a quarterback with their 1st round pick in this year's upcoming draft. If Tua leads the Dolphins to an AFC championship game or even the Super Bowl, then yes, this becomes a moot point. But what happens if it is a one and done playoff experience?

Getting a young QB prospect that is cap friendly for the next four to five seasons, and a team that is built to win is a strategy that has paid off. Having Tua around next year to mentor, groom, and teach a prospect is another advantage for the development of the prospect.

Who can they look to target - Caleb Williams is the cream of the crop and a player with a laser arm, and no injury concerns, but let’s be realistic. He’s going top 3. The Dolphins potentially look to create a trade-up scenario similar to how the Bills got Josh Allen, or how the Chiefs obtained Patrick Mahomes.

The opportunity will present itself, the Dolphins would be wise to consider a move of this magnitude. Or, they can look to repeat history. Resign Tua, just like they did Tannehill and hope they don’t trade him 5 years from now.

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No, it's not. It's implied that the Bills team as a collective is better than the Dolphins as a collective. That's not at all what you said, and not what is implied.
collectively, is essentially saying the same thing as I said. All around better or collective gives the edge to them.
 
I posted this in the other Tua thread but I'll copy/paste it here and would love some feedback. I've been pondering this for the last couple months. We all like Tua but we also all seem to think that 90% of QBs are either disappointing or overpaid these days. We all want a franchise QB but we also want money to spend on the team, too. It's tough to predict where we'll be in 2025.


This is actually an interesting topic believe it or not...and it has very little, if anything, to do with Tua himself.

I think we all appreciate that Tua is productive but your feelings on this should tie to how much he's going to cost and whether or not it's good for the Miami Dolphins to sink that into him long-term.

Look at all the QBs who made the Super Bowl from the last 20 or so years who were on rookie deals:

Hurts
Burrow
Mahomes
Goff
Wentz
Wilson
Kaepernick
Eli Manning
Roethlisberger
Grossman
Brady

Now look at the QBs who made it on 2nd/3rd deals but who were generally viewed as averaged / replaceable:

Stafford
Garoppolo
Newton
Ryan
Flacco
Hasselbeck
McNabb
Gannon
Dilfer
Warner

The point here is that it doesn't take an all-time great or HoF QB to reach the Super Bowl and moreover, having such a QB doesn't guarantee you'll get more than 1 or maybe 2 shots at it. Peyton dominated with the Colts but only made it twice (until reaching two more with Denver). Brees dominated with the Saints and only made it once. Philip Rivers famously never got there at all despite some incredible seasons in San Diego.


If you remove some of the repeat offenders that skew the data (guys like Brady, Peyton, Mahomes who were all-time greats who got there repeatedly) you can actually make a case that the best (or at least most common) way to get to the Super Bowl is with a good team that features a rookie-contract QB (or an equally-cheap one).

It makes sense...you have to find a hack somewhere. If you have a great team, it's probably an expensive one. Those roster spots won't all be rookie-contract players. Finding a cheap QB is a HUGE bonus that offers incredible advantage over the rest of the field.

Believe it or not, this is kind of the meta game that's happening in the NFL.

Roughly 50% of QBs in the Super Bowl these days are rookie-contract players and the majority are relatively cheap QBs with many of the other guys being slightly above-average veterans like Matt Hasselbeck, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco who happen to be on the right team at the right time with the right players and coaching supporting them. Without the Brady's and Mahomes' there to skew the data in favor of the narrative that "only elite QBs get there" we see something very different among the various year-to-year Super Bowl match-ups.

The relatively low-cost of the QB plays a huge role and is often their biggest feature. From the random guys like Rex Grossman and Colin Kaepernick to the long-term starters like Roethlisberger, Mahomes and Wilson who simply joined great teams and won the Lombardi in year #2...the list is actually shockingly long and the argument that a 2nd/3rd contract is a huge part of what actually shuts the window is somewhat compelling.

If that's truly the new modus operandi of the NFL then maybe the Dolphins should be planning to replace Tua regardless of how he plays? We can safely say he's not a physical freak like Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson and is thus unlikely to provide the "unstoppable" offenses they've had at their peak (blame this on a lack of mobility) and thus he's almost assured to become too expensive for his own good as a purely pocket passer should he earn a big extension (and that's not saying a thing about his being injured 5 of his 6 seasons as a starter at both Bama & Miami).

The Rams have made the Super Bowl twice in recent memory...each time with a different QB (Goff & Stafford). So have the Eagles (Wentz, Foles & Hurts). If the 49ers get there this year, they'll have done the same (Garoppolo & Purdy). Reaching the Super Bowl has so much to do with the team being good that maybe having turnover at QB isn't as bad as commonly thought. If the team is good, the QB is far more likely to have success anyway, right? Maybe you don't "have to" resign a QB just because he plays well?

I think we all understand the impulse to resign Mahomes, Jackson and maybe Allen to the high-priced contracts they've secured but the problem seems to be securing the "other" guys at reasonable prices. Too often we see a Tannehill at $30M or we're talking about some reasonably solid guy like Prescott, Wilson, Herbert, etc. at $40M. I think that's where teams go wrong. None of those QBs are bad...until you factor in the prices.


It's outside-the-box thinking compared with the conventional "you must secure your franchise QB" thinking which dominates internet forums but nonetheless, it's hard to ignore that Tua's biggest feature this year has been the fact that he only cost the Dolphins $10M. No other QB has produced like Tua on a per-dollar basis. The unfortunate reality is that a high-priced extension negates Tua's biggest strength.

It's pretty easy to like your QB when the team's roster is strong and the QB is still on his cheap rookie deal. The real question is whether it's better to retain Tua and buy him a bigger house with a $40M/yr salary or look at the possibility of spending that money on reinforcing the team itself. After all, it's not hard to imagine a young QB coming in and being successful on this team with an offensive-minded HC to hold his hand and with weapons like Mostert, Achane, Hill, Waddle, etc.

Another interesting feature of the "build the team" strategy is that drafting a QB who's a bust (e.g. Trey Lance) doesn't seem to upend the progress the team makes. The 49ers moved right along finding Purdy in the later rounds as did the Eagles with Hurts when his predecessor(s) failed.

So we get to the million dollar question....do we honestly think the Dolphins would consider passing up on Tua?

Eh, the pressure to re-sign and to validate Tua's selection seems high so I think Grier would err on the side of re-signing Tua. However, if the team fails to win a Play-off game this year that'll sting. And if Tua struggles with more injury next year it feels like all bets would be off.
This, and your next post, are really good and well reasoned. I agree with most of it, and the few things I don't are kinda peripheral or maybe semantic. You open yourself up to criticisms from both sides of the debate, as do posters agreeing with you, but that's OK. My similiar thinking, in brief: Tua's performance, especially the last 2 years under McD, is deserving of top of the market range 2nd contract. As much as the majority of QB's that got, or will get in that range, although obviously not as much as the "SB, obvious HOF, early" few. To add to the stats and winning percentages, already quoted -Tua is 2nd in the league DVOA this year, 3rd last year, 3rd net EPA+CPOE this year. I don't like that there's a downward trend both years, but I think that's a lot a team function.

BUT... It seems 50-70% of top market range QB contracts turn out to be bad ideas/ net negatives for the teams, even if the QB is completely deserving of them. Do we shoot to be in the good 30% or whatever it is? I think we do, cuz it's hard to even get to where you have the choice, but it's worth questioning.
 
Yeah I don't understand posts that have Penix and falling within the same sentence. This league turned Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson into very high first round picks. Neither one of them had a fraction of Penix's accuracy or awareness.

The only way Penix falls is if the postseason medicals are troubling regarding all the surgeries he's had.
Curious to your thoughts following Championship game.


Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 213 pounds
2023 stats: 4,648 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

Is Penix a first-rounder?

I asked 10 NFL scouts and received replies all over the map. Penix joins McCarthy as the most debated quarterbacks in terms of draft stock in this class.

"I would put him in the same range as [Daniels]," an AFC scout who covers the Pacific Northwest said. "I think he's in that pick six to 13 range."

But a different AFC scout who is tasked with cross-checking the quarterbacks has a completely different opinion: "I think he's a Round 3 guy on grade but might go earlier because of the position."

Various other evaluators chimed in with a wide spectrum of takes. Of the 10 scouts and general managers polled, three said Penix would be a first-round pick, five saw him as a second-round selection and two said the third round was more likely. I personally have him at No. 40 overall and QB5, but there's a lot of time for things to change. With the pre-draft process just getting started, Penix has opportunities to win over doubters -- notably if he accepts an invitation to participate in the Senior Bowl this month.

Why are scouts still skeptical of his pro ceiling?

We can start with the injuries. Though Penix -- who will be 24 years old as an NFL rookie -- has made it through two seasons at Washington without missing action, his four prior seasons at Indiana ended early due to health. An NFC West scout who has covered Penix in person says those medical concerns and a one-read Huskies offense will bring Penix's stock down to Earth after the season ends.

"He's had four seasons in college end in injury -- two knees and two shoulders. That's pretty vital to the position," he said.

Teams must weigh it, and much is unknown now, before a full medical evaluation is done at the combine in late February. "I haven't even dug into the injury stuff yet," an AFC general manager said, "but I know it exists and it's real, and we'll see how it looks when we get [to the combine]."

On the field, one AFC North scout pointed out ball placement to the intermediate levels of the field -- even after Penix threw for 430 yards and completed 76% of his passes against Texas. The numbers do back that, as Penix is 87th in the country in off-target percentage on throws 10 to 20 yards downfield this season (18.4%).

"Even against Texas, I thought there were too many throws when his receivers bailed him out," he said.

What is Penix's best trait?

Is it too simple to say "throwing the football" here? Penix is a master at laying the ball up for his wide receivers and understanding the type of pass needed for each moment. If Rome Odunze is blanketed in man coverage, Penix trusts him to bring down a 50-50 ball. If Jalen McMillan is streaking down the field, Penix leads him into space, trusting McMillan's body control and acceleration.

Penix's 95.5 QBR on deep routes is outstanding and points to how successful he is on vertical passes. He has great arm strength and the ability to loft the ball over defenders from multiple arm angles and multiple platforms. No other quarterback in college football has more completions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield this season than Penix (45).

What's his best NFL team fit?

Penix has a world-class arm with fantastic ability to loft the football deep over the heads of defensive backs, but he needs a scheme at the next level where he's protected by a good offensive line and can get the ball out quickly. Finding a trio of wide receivers like he has had at Washington might be tough in the NFL, too.

But I keep going back to the Atlanta Falcons, who need a reset at quarterback and have invested three straight top-10 draft picks in offensive skill players.
 
I saw very limited mobility by Penix to extend plays running, flustered by pass rush, missed WIDE OPEN receivers, dump off passes and screens accounted for the majority of his yardage tonight. Basically he didn’t have 5 seconds to get set and throw the ball this evening.
Played mostly against soft defenses in Pac 12, tonight it showed.
We already have these traits at the QB position.

(And yes I realize he had no running game support, and being a little banged up)
Personally I’d pass.
 

The Miami Dolphins are in the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row but should QB be a focus in the NFL Draft given Tua Tagovailoa's future?

Ryan Tannehill was selected 8th overall in the 2012 NFL draft. The highest draft selection ever made by the Miami Dolphins on a quarterback. This was a player who was deemed a prospect that would allow the Dolphins to stop the quarterback carousel they have had since Dan Marino retired. The hype was justified. His former collegiate head coach, was also the Miami Dolphins new Offensive Coordinator. The way Tannehill played justified his 8th overall selection during his time at Texas A&M, thereby leading to hope. Hope for the Miami Dolphins fans.

Tannehill's tenure with the Dolphins was met with a lot of ups and downs. He played well enough to earn a second contract, where the Dolphins in 2015 re-signed him to a 6 year, 96 Million dollar contract. Which at that time was substantial. A large commitment to a player with a large history of injury concerns.

The Dolphins, after signing Tannehill to that contract, never saw him play a full season nor play in a playoff game. This eventually led to him being traded to the Titans for a bag of footballs. Basically, a salary clearing trade that was best for both teams.

Where am I going with all of this - history tends to repeat itself with the Miami Dolphins. Fast forward to the present and the Dolphins have a decision to make about Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, the Dolphins picked up Tua's 5th-year option, which will ensure that he will start the 2024, and 2025 seasons, but should they look to re-sign him to a lucrative deal, knowing the injury concerns assigned to Tua?

You need to also take into consideration the Miami Dolphins cap situation. Remember, this offseason, Connor Williams, Chris Wilkins, Robert Hunt and Andrew Van Ginkel are all unrestricted free agents.

Then, Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips, and Jevon Holland are all looking for contract extensions, with the latter being an unrestricted free agent.

Lastly, it’s not like the Miami Dolphins have a plethora of cap space, they are actually forecasted to be 41MM over the cap. This means a lot of restructures, cuts, trades, and potentially deferring to future years, which doesn’t fix the cap, just punts it to another year.

Do the Dolphins really want to add a 40 to 50 million cap hit on a starting quarterback with injury concerns? Or should they look to foster a team that is built to win.

The Dolphins can achieve this by drafting a quarterback with their 1st round pick in this year's upcoming draft. If Tua leads the Dolphins to an AFC championship game or even the Super Bowl, then yes, this becomes a moot point. But what happens if it is a one and done playoff experience?

Getting a young QB prospect that is cap friendly for the next four to five seasons, and a team that is built to win is a strategy that has paid off. Having Tua around next year to mentor, groom, and teach a prospect is another advantage for the development of the prospect.

Who can they look to target - Caleb Williams is the cream of the crop and a player with a laser arm, and no injury concerns, but let’s be realistic. He’s going top 3. The Dolphins potentially look to create a trade-up scenario similar to how the Bills got Josh Allen, or how the Chiefs obtained Patrick Mahomes.

The opportunity will present itself, the Dolphins would be wise to consider a move of this magnitude. Or, they can look to repeat history. Resign Tua, just like they did Tannehill and hope they don’t trade him 5 years from now.
This is the dumb **** I can’t stand seeing on here. Why do I have to be a fan of a team with so many highlight reel fans who don’t know Richard about football.
 
I would for sure draft a QB in the 5th round and develop him. Tua definitely deserves to be our QB years to come.
 
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