Random thoughts about tomorrow

[thepoolboy]

Although the top of the draft is viewed as being weak, IMO it appears as if Alex Smith and Braylon Edwards are carrying grades that would make them top picks in almost any draft. That being said, the top two picks are far more valuable than the third as Smith and Edwards appear to be the only two players teams will trade up to obtain.

I still think the 49ers will take Smith at one. I'm aware they cannot come to an agreement on a contract but they are close enough that they can iron out the issues before training camp. The only other possibility is Edwards. He may still go to 49ers for their own keeping or for a trade up scenario. Rightly or wrongly, I do not think Rodgers is in the picture anymore.

At two, I think it again will be which either of the two falls or a trade down. If Edwards goes at one, I'm pretty sure we'll take Smith. I do not think the Bucs will provide enough in a trade for it make sense to move to five. But if Smith goes at one, we'll either take Edwards or trade down. If Smith goes at one, our best chance at an excellent trade will be with Edwards. Washington seems the most likely but Minnesota may come back into the picture. I do not think Cleveland will pull a Winslow from last year and I do not think San Diego will use their ammo to move to two. If we trade down, I feel it will be for one of the top cornerbacks. With Surtain gone, Madison aging and Howard possibly being asked to take a pay cut, there may be a void in our defensive backfield.

In a nutshell...Smith if available or a tradedown with Edwards going at two.

 

[DeeAy3000]

Random thoughts it is, how can a QB come out of the season being ranked as the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft and work his way up to number one by doing nothing more than completing a few passes at the combine?

 

[HysterikiLL]

When I look at the value chart, I think the top two picks should be a lot more than 2600...I think the top two picks in this draft should be at about 3000 whilst picks 10-25 should be substantially lower than the draft board states and 2nd, 3rd round picks have more value.

This is a value draft from 2nd round to 5th round

 

[Agent51]

Random thoughts it is, how can a QB come out of the season being ranked as the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft and work his way up to number one by doing nothing more than completing a few passes at the combine?

LOL, exactly, and that goes for ANY player. How can Ronnie Brown come out being the 2nd or 3rd ranked back (behind Benson and on some boards Caddy) and then shoot to #1 after running a fast 40 at the combine? The combine is stupid. It's good to check out their skill sin drill sand things, but it in no way measures the player and how he plays ON THE FIELD IN GAMES. It should be a factor in graded, but not THE factor.

 

[rafael]

Random thoughts it is, how can a QB come out of the season being ranked as the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft and work his way up to number one by doing nothing more than completing a few passes at the combine?

B/c they are unknown by the media who do the early projections. After the combines and pro days the media has a better idea who the pros think highly of, not the specifics, but general ideas. So in reality players like Smith and Brown aren't moving up the team's draft boards. They are just moving up the public draft boards.

 

[KB21]

I disagree. When I look at this draft, I see 6 players that are all so closely rated together that there is no clear distinction on who is the best. IMO, it's a matter of preference. You've got three running backs, one receiver, one quarterback, and one cornerback that are separated by a tenth of a point in their respective grades.

Braylon Edwards and Alex Smith aren't so far ahead of everyone else that there is a drastic dropoff between them and the rest. It's much closer than that.

The top six picks in this draft will come down to preference and need, because there isn't enough separation to say so and so is the best available player.

 

[KB21]

LOL, exactly, and that goes for ANY player. How can Ronnie Brown come out being the 2nd or 3rd ranked back (behind Benson and on some boards Caddy) and then shoot to #1 after running a fast 40 at the combine? The combine is stupid. It's good to check out their skill sin drill sand things, but it in no way measures the player and how he plays ON THE FIELD IN GAMES. It should be a factor in graded, but not THE factor.

Actually, I've stated that Ronnie was the best running back all along. This is a post of mine that I made back in November.

http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showpost.php?p=770632&postcount=6

I stated then that if the scouts did their homework, Ronnie Brown would be the first running back drafted.

Unlike some of you, I don't trash the other two backs the way you guys attempt to trash Ronnie Brown. All three are better than any back drafted since LT was drafted in 2001.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Each team has its own ratings which we aren't privy to. You would have to assume this:

* Most teams have Smith above Rodgers at QB
* Most teams have Edwards above Williams and Williamson at WR
* More teams have Brown ahead of Caddy or Benson at RB (although that might be a plurality, not majority)

I think it's blanketed in the top 6 or 7, enough to make trading down a significant underdog without surrendering value.

 

[Agent51]

Actually, I've stated that Ronnie was the best running back all along. This is a post of mine that I made back in November.

http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showpost.php?p=770632&postcount=6

I stated then that if the scouts did their homework, Ronnie Brown would be the first running back drafted.

Unlike some of you, I don't trash the other two backs the way you guys attempt to trash Ronnie Brown. All three are better than any back drafted since LT was drafted in 2001.

first off, YOU stated. Who are you? You are a fan just like the rest of us, so "you stating" he was better all along means nothing, just like me stating Benson was the best or someone else saying Caddy is the best means nothing. The arguement was Benson was top rated based on play and all that right at the end of the eason, until the combine, then he dropped to 3rd (he didn't even workout).

second, if you are implying me, I don't BASH Brown, I praise his talents just like the other two, and would be more than happy with him as a Dolphin, I just would much prefer the OTHER two before him. I just don't think there is as much talent. Because I think Benson and Caddy are better than Brown doesn't mean I "trash him", it means I have an honest opinion that someone is better than someone else, if that means I am trashing him, then so be it, but that means you would be trashing Benson too. I look at Brown's highlights and I saw a few of his games and I wasn't impressed, or "WOWed" as some might say. His running (FROM WHAT I SAW anyway) had some good plays, a few great ones, but for the most part was your average NCAA rushing, nothing special, IN MY OPINION, wheras Caddy and Benson's videos and the games I caught with Caddy (saw all of Benson's) had a lot more big plays an WOW factor to them. It's an OPINION and nobody is TRASHING brown, in fact, I am pretty much in the minority in favoring Benson over Brown, and even favoring Caddy over Brown. MOST people here who want a RB want Brown as their 1st choice I have noticed.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

LOL, exactly, and that goes for ANY player. How can Ronnie Brown come out being the 2nd or 3rd ranked back (behind Benson and on some boards Caddy) and then shoot to #1 after running a fast 40 at the combine? The combine is stupid. It's good to check out their skill sin drill sand things, but it in no way measures the player and how he plays ON THE FIELD IN GAMES. It should be a factor in graded, but not THE factor.

Ronnie Brown is a size/speed/physique wonder. That type invariably soars in the underwear months. Throw in the pass catching ability and it was a given.

I set my VCR to tape games on Saturdays while I'm watching as many games as possible in the sportsbooks. Then I try to save a representative number of tapes for major teams with numerous pro prospects. Reviewing them in February thru April helps me cut thru the combine trash and avoid tedious baseball, which I despise.

My prize theory is defaulting to early evaluation whenever relevant. It seldom lets me down. A year ago Caddy was better than Ronnie Brown and Mike Williams a superstar on the co-national champion. Now people want to pretend neither of those were real. Tally ho.

 

[KB21]

first off, YOU stated. Who are you? You are a fan just like the rest of us, so "you stating" he was better all along means nothing, just like me stating Benson was the best or someone else saying Caddy is the best means nothing. The arguement was Benson was top rated based on play and all that right at the end of the eason, until the combine, then he dropped to 3rd (he didn't even workout).

second, if you are implying me, I don't BASH Brown, I praise his talents just like the other two, and would be more than happy with him as a Dolphin, I just would much prefer the OTHER two before him. I just don't think there is as much talent. Because I think Benson and Caddy are better than Brown doesn't mean I "trash him", it means I have an honest opinion that someone is better than someone else, if that means I am trashing him, then so be it, but that means you would be trashing Benson too. I look at Brown's highlights and I saw a few of his games and I wasn't impressed, or "WOWed" as some might say. His running (FROM WHAT I SAW anyway) had some good plays, a few great ones, but for the most part was your average NCAA rushing, nothing special, IN MY OPINION, wheras Caddy and Benson's videos and the games I caught with Caddy (saw all of Benson's) had a lot more big plays an WOW factor to them. It's an OPINION and nobody is TRASHING brown, in fact, I am pretty much in the minority in favoring Benson over Brown, and even favoring Caddy over Brown. MOST people here who want a RB want Brown as their 1st choice I have noticed.

Oh, I'm more than a fan, but if you want to put me down on your level, go ahead. I've evaluated players for various sources for about 10 years now. Both Boomer and I used to scout for the same service. The difference between you and the due of Boomer and I is that our information was sought out. We didn't ask to cover the draft or evaluate players. We were asked to do it.

I've watched Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson for all four years they were in college. I knew about Benson when he came out of Midland HS. I followed Ronnie Brown when he was the top running back recruit coming out of Georgia. I followed Cadillac Williams when he came out of high school in Alabama.

I've got more than just highlights to look at.

 

[KB21]

Ronnie Brown is a size/speed/physique wonder. That type invariably soars in the underwear months. Throw in the pass catching ability and it was a given.

I set my VCR to tape games on Saturdays while I'm watching as many games as possible in the sportsbooks. Then I try to save a representative number of tapes for major teams with numerous pro prospects. Reviewing them in February thru April helps me cut thru the combine trash and avoid tedious baseball, which I despise.

My prize theory is defaulting to early evaluation whenever relevant. It seldom lets me down. A year ago Caddy was better than Ronnie Brown and Mike Williams a superstar on the co-national champion. Now people want to pretend neither of those were real. Tally ho.

Actually, a year ago, Mike Williams had the same lack of speed questions that he has now. He was squarely behind Roy Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, and Reggie Williams on every draft board, and he was behind Michael Clayton on some draft boards. He would have been drafted in the 15-20 area last year. The highest he would have been drafted was Tampa Bay with the 15th pick. So, things are not much different.

Cadillac had questions about his durability, since he missed significant time in his first two seasons. People forget that it was Ronnie Brown that ran for 1,000 yards in 2002 while starting the 6 games Cadillac missed.

Cedric Benson, whether it is right or not, has had questions about his desire in the past.

 

[Agent51]

Oh, I'm more than a fan, but if you want to put me down on your level, go ahead. I've evaluated players for various sources for about 10 years now. Both Boomer and I used to scout for the same service. The difference between you and the due of Boomer and I is that our information was sought out. We didn't ask to cover the draft or evaluate players. We were asked to do it.

I've watched Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson for all four years they were in college. I knew about Benson when he came out of Midland HS. I followed Ronnie Brown when he was the top running back recruit coming out of Georgia. I followed Cadillac Williams when he came out of high school in Alabama.

I've got more than just highlights to look at.

You know, in that case, I do take back my previous statement (about "Who are you?", not that I still like Benson better) and apologize, I did not know you were a scout and all that, I figured you were just like everyone else here that just pretends they know better than everyone else, so for questioning who you are, I apologize (although I don't appreciate you talking down to me, and the rest of us fans by saying "if you want to put me down on your level" like you are BETTER than us because you analyze players and sh*t). Moving on to the Benson/Brown debate (and even in my own defense a little), NOBODY knows who we are taking, or even interested in for that matter, except Saban, so to spend all this time actually arguing amongst ourselves is getting ridiculous. We all have our favorites and some, like myself, are very passionate about them. I however do not down or trash Brown or others, and in my posts I do try and post accurate stats to back up my opinions. I still think it is extremely odd that Benson was pretty much the unanimous top back out of college, then the combine rolls around and now he drops to 2 ro 3 cuz the other 2 had a good workout. I have never liked the combine and how it wieghs so much on a players stock, and THAT was the point of my original statement, I wasn't trying to take away from Ronnie's skills. I think you can see through all my posts that I am not one of the "that guy sucks because he just does and because I don't like him guys", I post WHY I think one player is better than another, and try to back it up with stats and facts when I can, if not, I don't post. I think all of us who are pulling for a RB in round 1, no matter who we want, will be happy with either of the three because they are all great. We can argue all day and night who is better, and in the end neither of us will budge, wether one is right or wrong, so it just seems pointless.

 

[KB21]

You know, in that case, I do take back my previous statement (about "Who are you?", not that I still like Benson better) and apologize, I did not know you were a scout and all that, I figured you were just like everyone else here that just pretends they know better than everyone else, so for questioning who you are, I apologize. Moving on to the Benson/Brown debate (and even in my own defense a little), NOBODY knows who we are taking, or even interested in for that matter, except Saban, so to spend all this time actually arguing amongst ourselves is getting ridiculous. We all have our favorites and some, like myself, are very passionate about them. I however do not down or trash Brown or others, and in my posts I do try and post accurate stats to back up my opinions. I still think it is extremely odd that Benson was pretty much the unanimous top back out of college, then the combine rolls around and now he drops to 2 ro 3 cuz the other 2 had a good workout. I have never liked the combine and how it wieghs so much on a players stock, and THAT was the point of my original statement, I wasn't trying to take away from Ronnie's skills. I think you can see through all my posts that I am not one of the "that guy sucks because he just does and because I don't like him guys", I post WHY I think one player is better than another, and try to back it up with stats and facts when I can, if not, I don't post. I think all of us who are pulling for a RB in round 1, no matter who we want, will be happy with either of the three because they are all great. We can argue all day and night who is better, and in the end neither of us will budge, wether one is right or wrong, so it just seems pointless.

That's true. No one knows who we are taking. I've stated on more than one occasion that I believe the pick will be Ronnie Brown because he makes the most sense. I want one of the three because I believe the dropoff between those three and the next back is very large.

Boomer and I aren't scouts though. We have simply evaluated talent for various sites in the past, and we have developed quite an eye for doing it. I'm a medical student that does this on the side now.

 

[Agent51]

That's true. No one knows who we are taking. I've stated on more than one occasion that I believe the pick will be Ronnie Brown because he makes the most sense. I want one of the three because I believe the dropoff between those three and the next back is very large.

Boomer and I aren't scouts though. We have simply evaluated talent for various sites in the past, and we have developed quite an eye for doing it. I'm a medical student that does this on the side now.

Ah, well, haha, we should just agree to disagree so it goes back to being considered a "friendly" debate instead of going downhill like it was, lol. We are both Dolphins fans and therefore shouldn't be fighting amongst ourselves, ESPECIALLY on something we have ZERO controll over. You brought up good points on Brown, and I don't think you can say that I DIDN'T have good points on Benson, but in the end, we are on the same playing field in that we have to wait until at least 12:15 tomorrow to see who we actually take. But given your in-depth knowledge of the prospects, I have a few questions:
1: Do you think we are taking Smith, or even Rodgers, if we are stuck at 2 and they are there? (please say no, and mean it, lol), and do you think they are deserving of going SO high? I know Rodgers is predicted to drop WAY down if he doesn't go to SF, but Smith seems to have more negatives on him than Rodgers.
2: Do you think we will go Edwards or Williams (mike) if stuck at #2, or RB?
3: I have come up with a theory that the bears MAY not be as high on Benson as they seem to be and they might only be talking about him so much because they assume we are taking Brown, and if Brown drops to them they will take him instead of Benson, how accurate do you think I could be?