Random Thoughts

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Busts
Talking draft on sports radio it was mentioned that the rate of success for a first rounder is about 50 percent. I'm not sure exactly how success was defined, but that is a low percentage. No wonder the draft is considered such a crap shoot.

Yet some teams have consistently had a higher rate of success. Why is that? My guess is that a major part of the equation is coaching. Even looking at someone like Dion Jordan I think he was miscast as a defensive end in Miami. Always thought he should be a linebacker. Not saying he would have been a success somewhere else, but you never know. I guess it's hard to be successful when you're on injured reserve for years and years.

Tom Brady lands in Cleveland instead of New England and is he the next Tim Couch? Couch in New England under Bellichick might have had success.

Anyway, food for thought I guess. It is interesting how some young players in Miami started to develop with Adam Gase here. Not sure that happens with Joe Philibin.

Draft
With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, my gut keeps going back to Jabrill Peppers. I know there's a lot of mixed feelings about his game. I just have this sneaky feeling that he is high on Miami's list if he makes it to #22.

I just hope Miami hits it big and can find 2-3 starters in this draft.

Free Agency
While it was disappointing to get nothing out of Jordan, freeing up about $3.2 million could help Miami sign another free agent (Zach Brown maybe) or make a long-term commitment to Jarvis Landry. Speaking of Landry, to me that's the type of players Miami needs to continue to find. Players who give that consistent effort and keep fighting on offense and defense.

That's what I think defines a Dolphins player in the Adam Gase era.

 

[Travis34]

I hope we can find 2-3 starters, but hoops made a good point the other day, it seems like it might be hard for any rookie to get significant snaps barring an injury of course

Say we go-
DE- log jam already, but maybe a pass rush specialist could see time?
LB- seems like the starting 3 are set, even though I'd prefer someone else out there besides Misi
safety- I think a true FS could overtake Allen (or McDonald's?) role.. would have to be a pretty early pick / talented player though
corner- slot cb is the only option really, which we arent taking in round 1 or 2
guard- now this seems like the most likely surefire day 1 starter
dt- would be rotational

 

[maralieus]

Peppers is gonna be a great player I believe. He needs to land with a good coach though that can utilize him with some creativity. Hes got athletism, tenacity, total love of the game and maybe most of all, leadership. He was the heart and soul of the entire Michigan wolverines team and it was obvious. I would love to pick him up, and this is coming from a diehard buckeye fan.

 

[PSU Cane]

Busts
Talking draft on sports radio it was mentioned that the rate of success for a first rounder is about 50 percent. I'm not sure exactly how success was defined, but that is a low percentage. No wonder the draft is considered such a crap shoot.

Yet some teams have consistently had a higher rate of success. Why is that? My guess is that a major part of the equation is coaching. Even looking at someone like Dion Jordan I think he was miscast as a defensive end in Miami. Always thought he should be a linebacker. Not saying he would have been a success somewhere else, but you never know. I guess it's hard to be successful when you're on injured reserve for years and years.

Tom Brady lands in Cleveland instead of New England and is he the next Tim Couch? Couch in New England under Bellichick might have had success.

Anyway, food for thought I guess. It is interesting how some young players in Miami started to develop with Adam Gase here. Not sure that happens with Joe Philibin.

Draft
With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, my gut keeps going back to Jabrill Peppers. I know there's a lot of mixed feelings about his game. I just have this sneaky feeling that he is high on Miami's list if he makes it to #22.

I just hope Miami hits it big and can find 2-3 starters in this draft.

Free Agency
While it was disappointing to get nothing out of Jordan, freeing up about $3.2 million could help Miami sign another free agent (Zach Brown maybe) or make a long-term commitment to Jarvis Landry. Speaking of Landry, to me that's the type of players Miami needs to continue to find. Players who give that consistent effort and keep fighting on offense and defense.

That's what I think defines a Dolphins player in the Adam Gase era.

In regards to busts, it is a more complicated conversation than some want to make it. To your point, who's to say if a guy would have succeeded on another team, in another system, with other plays/coaches, in another city? Some guy could fail being thrown into the fire too early on bad teams. Other guys may not fit the system....like throwing a press CB into off-man or zone, a 4-3 base end into a 3-4 OLB, or a 1 gap DT into a 2 gap system. Some may need strong a strong veteran presence to learn from and mature.....or coaches who are more structured and firm. The are so many variables that can play a role.

 

[mwestberry]

Rounds 1 and 2....Guard or Linebacker....the right pick at those two positions should be starters...
Round 3....DE or Safety....need a replacement to groom for Wake in the future and need rotational depth
IMO those 3 positions in the first 3 rounds and given the players that should be available for us we should be able to identify the best player at those positions through round 3....

I am all in for trading down this draft and hope the right circumstances are there when we pick to move down and maybe even out of the first round....not sure of the table of compensation for a first round number 22 pick but in my fantasy I would like two #2's (ours and theirs) and another 3 or 4

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

In regards to busts, it is a more complicated conversation than some want to make it. To your point, who's to say if a guy would have succeeded on another team, in another system, with other plays/coaches, in another city? Some guy could fail being thrown into the fire too early on bad teams. Other guys may not fit the system....like throwing a press CB into off-man or zone, a 4-3 base end into a 3-4 OLB, or a 1 gap DT into a 2 gap system. Some may need strong a strong veteran presence to learn from and mature.....or coaches who are more structured and firm. The are so many variables that can play a role.

Good point. I think there are bust categories like:

Injury --- Most probably fit here (John Bosa, Yatil Green as Miami examples)
System Fit ---
Character --- I'd put Dion Jordan here, although also could fit into the system fit
Lack of NFL talent --- Billy Milner probably fits in here.

---------- Post added at 11:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 AM ----------

Peppers is gonna be a great player I believe. He needs to land with a good coach though that can utilize him with some creativity. Hes got athletism, tenacity, total love of the game and maybe most of all, leadership. He was the heart and soul of the entire Michigan wolverines team and it was obvious. I would love to pick him up, and this is coming from a diehard buckeye fan.

I really like Peppers as well. Agree, though, that it's got to be a good coaching staff. He has a ways to go, but has the talent and desire.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I hope we can find 2-3 starters, but hoops made a good point the other day, it seems like it might be hard for any rookie to get significant snaps barring an injury of course

Say we go-
DE- log jam already, but maybe a pass rush specialist could see time?
LB- seems like the starting 3 are set, even though I'd prefer someone else out there besides Misi
safety- I think a true FS could overtake Allen (or McDonald's?) role.. would have to be a pretty early pick / talented player though
corner- slot cb is the only option really, which we arent taking in round 1 or 2
guard- now this seems like the most likely surefire day 1 starter
dt- would be rotational

Kind of agree with that. In a way, that speaks to a successful free agency for Miami.

Obviously, one of the top safeties could likely come in and start right away over Allen. A top guard would have a good chance to start immediately. A defensive end would likely be a rotational guy. Willis, if he was drafted, might beat out Branch but initially that could be harder than fans might expect.

 

[Travis34]

Kind of agree with that. In a way, that speaks to a successful free agency for Miami.

Obviously, one of the top safeties could likely come in and start right away over Allen. A top guard would have a good chance to start immediately. A defensive end would likely be a rotational guy. Willis, if he was drafted, might beat out Branch but initially that could be harder than fans might expect.

Right. Obviously we were trying to band aid as much as possible to go BPA as best we can within reason I think

I hope we hit guard, linebacker, de, and fs within the first 2 days. Tannenbaum likes his trades so its feasible.

Not sure who/where/how things will fall before pick 22, but I know I'd like a linebacker within the first 2 rounds. Then I think of the other positions and say the same thing to myself.... so who the hell knows

 

[DKphin]

The reason so many 1st rounders fail to live up to there draft status is because(and I sincerely believe this), the scouting departments of alot of teams is made up of over payed ex-players that do not have a clue as to what they are doing. They have gotten the jobs because of who they know and not what they know. Most are very rigid in evaluations, too caught up in metrics and lean on too much bias in their assessments.

 

[jlfin]

In the 1970s (before FA) poor Archie Manning had to scramble for his life playing for a God awful Saints team. Meanwhile, Terry Bradshaw got to play for a 70s dynasty (Steelers).
Had Manning played for the Steelers and had Bradshaw stayed home in Louisiana, I believe Manning would be in the HOF and not Bradshaw.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

The reason so many 1st rounders fail to live up to there draft status is because(and I sincerely believe this), the scouting departments of alot of teams is made up of over payed ex-players that do not have a clue as to what they are doing. They have gotten the jobs because of who they know and not what they know. Most are very rigid in evaluations, too caught up in metrics and lean on too much bias in their assessments.

I'll agree, but add one. FAR too many fans think R1 draft picks means perennial All-Pro. Thus, a R1 pick who becomes a solid starter was a bad pick. (We all know the hindsight crowd - "we chose A but COULD HAVE HAD B). When unrealistic expectations aren't fulfilled, it's impossible to "live up to their draft status."

 

[VBCheeseGrater]

Good point about positions already being filled. I would not mind a guard in round 1 if hes a sure thing like Tunsil as tackle. Just as the OP mentions its a crap shoot, even in the early rounds, so if a guard is sitting there we know will start day 1 and improve the oline, then heck yes use that pick, kiper type talking head grumblings be damned.

 

[royalshank]

Busts
Talking draft on sports radio it was mentioned that the rate of success for a first rounder is about 50 percent. I'm not sure exactly how success was defined, but that is a low percentage. No wonder the draft is considered such a crap shoot.

Yet some teams have consistently had a higher rate of success. Why is that? My guess is that a major part of the equation is coaching. Even looking at someone like Dion Jordan I think he was miscast as a defensive end in Miami. Always thought he should be a linebacker. Not saying he would have been a success somewhere else, but you never know. I guess it's hard to be successful when you're on injured reserve for years and years.

Tom Brady lands in Cleveland instead of New England and is he the next Tim Couch? Couch in New England under Bellichick might have had success.

Anyway, food for thought I guess. It is interesting how some young players in Miami started to develop with Adam Gase here. Not sure that happens with Joe Philibin.

Draft
With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, my gut keeps going back to Jabrill Peppers. I know there's a lot of mixed feelings about his game. I just have this sneaky feeling that he is high on Miami's list if he makes it to #22.

I just hope Miami hits it big and can find 2-3 starters in this draft.

Free Agency
While it was disappointing to get nothing out of Jordan, freeing up about $3.2 million could help Miami sign another free agent (Zach Brown maybe) or make a long-term commitment to Jarvis Landry. Speaking of Landry, to me that's the type of players Miami needs to continue to find. Players who give that consistent effort and keep fighting on offense and defense.

That's what I think defines a Dolphins player in the Adam Gase era.

agree that so much is fit and coaching. Having said that, had anyone else been stupid enough to spend a draft pick on Caleb Sturgis he likely would have stunk there too.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

In the 1970s (before FA) poor Archie Manning had to scramble for his life playing for a God awful Saints team. Meanwhile, Terry Bradshaw got to play for a 70s dynasty (Steelers).
Had Manning played for the Steelers and had Bradshaw stayed home in Louisiana, I believe Manning would be in the HOF and not Bradshaw.

I agree 100 percent. Steve Young is another example. He was generally regarded as a bust before being traded to San Francisco. Amazing what talent around a quarterback can do.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Right. Obviously we were trying to band aid as much as possible to go BPA as best we can within reason I think

I hope we hit guard, linebacker, de, and fs within the first 2 days. Tannenbaum likes his trades so its feasible.

Not sure who/where/how things will fall before pick 22, but I know I'd like a linebacker within the first 2 rounds. Then I think of the other positions and say the same thing to myself.... so who the hell knows

Yeah, I think a linebacker early rounds could start over Misi. Not sure Miami values that position as much as other teams. Plus, your usually going to have two on the field anyway. That's kind of why I think Peppers is high on the Dolphins wish list as he gives you that hybrid guy.

Another position that could challenge to start right away is tight end if Howard or Njoku is there at #22.

The thing is, like you said, free agency was a temporary band aid. Need long term answers at a lot of positions including MLB and defensive end.