I like Dave Hyde. He writes nice enjoyable articles and seems like a nice guy. Unfortunately, when it comes to analyzing football, I tend to have a different opinion than he has. But Hyde recognizes good analysis, and has supported our friends Simon and CK in the past, and they both have exceptional football analysis. Regardless, I rank the openings differently than Hyde does. IMHO, each potential head coach is going to rank them differently, because each candidate is looking for slightly different things or emphasizes slightly different things. Some jobs are just better than others, no doubt, but all 8 of these are in that mid-range I think. Here's how I see it.
1. Cleveland
Hyde explained this one beautifully, so nothing more to explain, we agree. But, it is still Cleveland, which is not a destination for FA's, not a market that gets a lot of extra money from endorsements etc., and it's hard to recruit FA's to a smaller market midwestern town that plays outdoors in the cold. The owner is not a big spender, so in essence, these things mean you are working with a lower salary cap number each year, because you either have to overpay (e.g. Jarvis Landry) or just realize you cannot get most FA's. That is a drawback. You also play in a division with two very strong franchises, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. Tough sledding in the Black and Blue division.
2. New York
Yeah, hate to say it, but they're a team with defensive talent, a good young QB …. and I mean YOUNG, he was the youngest of last year's rookies and he looks like he is progressing nicely. Destination city that attracts FA's by itself, huge media exposure so if you get good you become a legend, and a history of poor performance so the pressure is relatively low. Easy to attract coordinators, and has some solid building blocks on defense. It is in a division that has the Buffalo and Miami, two extreme weather locations but also teams that have not been special in the last decade or so. The marquee team is New England, but they have a 40 something QB and a 67 year old coach ... how much longer will they really compete? This is a location that is ripe for a turnaround … unfortunately.
3. Denver
Those defensive stalwarts that Hyde mentioned are big positives. But it gets better. The offense is a clean slate, so any new coach comes in and can basically start from scratch knowing nobody is safe and everyone needs to toe the line. The Defense has resources and is extremely hungry to get back to the Super Bowl, so recruiting a DC should be easy. The weather in Denver is surprisingly comfortable year round, with not much rain and lots of clear open lifestyle choices that are attractive to raising kids and getting outdoors. This is a good job.
4. Miami
Potentially as good as any of the teams ahead of it actually. With Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Bobby McCain we have the makings of a good young secondary. Everyone else on the defense is dealer's choice, take 'em or leave 'em, so the coach can pick and choose and no one will judge him when the reaper's scythe culls the defense or changes the scheme. On offense you have a talented receiving corps and a very talented but yet to explode TE in Mike Gesicki (yes, I am still a firm believer) to help your new QB of choice. We have a top LT and mix-and-match pieces no matter what blocking scheme you want to run, you keep half, jettison half, and add who you like, then you can phase out who you like in year 2. We have a RB that can pass protect, receive, run and make explosive plays. If you can solve the riddle of the OL, this offense is tailor made to grow your new QB. You get to (and must) select a new QB, which every coach wants to do. The owner is patient and willing to spend money while letting you handle the football side. Perfect. Fantastic environment to live and work year round. No state taxes. Maybe not a destination city for FA's like NYC or LA, but it's got a lot of advantages for potential FA's so it's probably 2nd only to NY as a destination city looking for a coach. Wives and kids will love it. Lots to like.
5. Tampa Bay
Lots to be wary of, starting with the QB with whom you will be joined at the hip. Not great, sometimes controversial, and has had injury issues. Not what I'd call dependable or safe. If you want to win the turnover battle … this might not be your guy. If you need someone to manage the game, this isn't your guy. If you need someone to depend on every game … not your guy. I see a lot of coaches--offensive minded and defensive minded--that will shy away from Tampa because of the QB situation. Everything Hyde mentioned is correct too … meaning there's a lot of warning signs. I'd definitely put Tampa Bay behind Miami on the coaches preference ranking.
6. Green Bay
As Admiral Achbar said, "It's a TRAP!" So you will be given 2 years to succeed not 3, because Rodgers is in win-now mode. You have no talent except Rodgers, and you need to adapt your offense to service Rodgers. Don't get me wrong, he's the best QB in the game when healthy. But he's also a strong willed leader who will challenge the coaching staff. The cupboard is bare as far as talent, so really it's all about can you leverage Rodgers' health and ability immediately to outscore opponents? Not a great scenario for a coach wanting to rebuild.
7. Cincinnati
Lewis did a great job with minimal resources. The Bengals are another team that doesn't always spend up to the cap ceiling, and sometimes barely exceeds the cap FLOOR … yeah, it has a floor, and owners that can't afford to bleed money like Multi-Billionaires can are forced sometimes to balance the books. Not a destination. Black and Blue Division. Lesser funds. Smaller effective salary cap. Expectations that are high. Yeah, this is setting someone up to fail.
8. Arizona
Disarray and tied to a QB who has issues. I think this might be the one spot that a lot of coaches simply aren't interested in tackling.
Each candidate will have a completely different ranking, but in general, I'd say it looks more like this than Hyde's list. Just my $0.02 on the vacancies.
