Ravens have tiebreaker but Dolphins statistically favored | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Ravens have tiebreaker but Dolphins statistically favored

The main thing that Miami has going for them is the conference record, but that only plays a major factor if we can get a team like San Diego in the mix. In a logjam at 8-8, Miami would have a great chance to win that tiebreaker . . . don't think any of the 5-7 teams win out, although Pittsburgh has the best shot at it which is why this week's game is extremely important for Miami.

Either way, Baltimore has to atleast lose one game or none of this matters . . . although Cincy falling down the stretch could play a factor as they get both Bmore and Pittsburgh. If they lose both of those games, then Bmore could win the division while we own the tiebreak over them for the WC.

Still early
 
Worry about what the Dolphins control...win out and see how the chips fall....
 
This Sunday is our playoff game number one in my mind. Can you guys at the Met Life takeover make a road trip? Win Sunday and I will feel good about our playoff chances.
 
ConvenientTruth said:
I do dream and actually think the Dolphins can win out....
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I think they could win out also. But I think with the way they have played this year, they could go the other way and lose most of them. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much, just stay level headed, if they win they win if they lose they lose.
Nothing I can do either way.
 
I am worried that,if the bengals have the division locked up in week 16, they will rest some players versus the ravens in the final game. Bengals and colts may be battling for the 3rd seed hopefully.
 
The most damaging, and unfortunately the most likely, scenario is that Cincinnati is locked into a 3 or 4 seed and will be resting players in their final game against Baltimore. It sounds as though the Dolphins will need to win out and for the Patriots to beat the Ravens in Baltimore or for the Ravens to lose at Detroit. I just can't see the statistical advantage belonging to Miami. And I don't think the Dolphins will get in with a 9-7 record.

And my gut feeling is that the game @Buffalo is the toughest of the four remaining games. If the computers are just factoring in Buffalo's 4-8 record, that is shortsighted.


Kdawg954 said:
The main thing that Miami has going for them is the conference record, but that only plays a major factor if we can get a team like San Diego in the mix. In a logjam at 8-8, Miami would have a great chance to win that tiebreaker . . . don't think any of the 5-7 teams win out, although Pittsburgh has the best shot at it which is why this week's game is extremely important for Miami.

Either way, Baltimore has to atleast lose one game or none of this matters . . . although Cincy falling down the stretch could play a factor as they get both Bmore and Pittsburgh. If they lose both of those games, then Bmore could win the division while we own the tiebreak over them for the WC.

Still early
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The site also has some nice scenarios, On the what if page this weeks game determines whether we have 59% chance of making playoffs (win) or 23% chance with loss.

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/dolphinswhatif.html

It jumps all the way up to 76% if the following happens

Best Case Scenario
Vikings beats Ravens
Dolphins beats Steelers
Raiders beats Jets
 
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So according to this if we win 3 of 4 remaining games we have a 78% chance of making the playoffs as the sixth seed with a 9-7 record ?
 
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gafin said:
So according to this if we win 3 of 4 remaining games we have a 78% chance of making the playoffs as the sixth seed with a 9-7 record ?
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that makes sense because baltimore's last 3 games are against current division leaders, 2 of them on the road, so odds are theyll lose 2 of those games. so if we get to 9-7 that should get us in, barring a current 5-7 team running the table.
 
I think we want one of the 5-7 teams to run the table (not PIT clearly) because that takes us out of a scenario where our game vs Balt is the tie breaker. We hold head to head tie breaker vs SD and conf rec tie breaker over SD, TEN, BAL. Losing to CAR and getting embarrassed by NO and TB might pay off. This is obviously assuming we lose only one more game.

Bottom line is if we take care of business (3-1) we have a legit shot at the postseason. We MUST beat ****tsburgh on Sunday. Sherman better pull out all the stops. If the game's played in the elements, which the forecast is suggesting, big advantage to the Steelers.
 
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