Real effect of Trent Green on Chris Chambers, some nice numbers

[Ohio Fanatic]

No, I can not post a link, it's a pay per view site, so I posted half the article. and yes, it's a fantasy football site, but it has relevant breakdown to the potential for Chris Chambers to get back to a higher level. It's a debate that has been discussed before in VIP, these are just some further numbers that I thought were interesting, especially the last third of the post. My apologies for the one table not formatting correctly


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<H4>Posted 7/27 by Jeff Haseley(Footballguys.com)
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Chris Chambers has 451 targets over the last 3 years. Only Torry Holt (470) and Chad Johnson (467) have more targets over that same span. Chambers in those 3 years, has only 211 receptions compared to Holt's 289 receptions and Johnson's 279 receptions.
Reception % for those three players (2004-2006)

• 61.4% Holt
• 59.7% C. Johnson
• 46.7% Chambers

Who's to blame for Chambers low reception percentage? Is it Chambers himself or is it the four different subpar QBs that he's had over the last four years?

• Chambers 2006: 59 rec on 154 targets = 38%.
  The primary Miami QB was Joey Harrington, who had a 59% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 27th among fantasy QBs.
• Chambers 2005: 82 rec on 166 targets = 49%.
  The primary Miami QB was Gus Frerotte, who had a 52% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 17th among fantasy QBs.
• Chambers 2004: 69 rec on 132 targets = 52%.
  The primary Miami QB was AJ Feeley, who had a 53% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 30th among fantasy QBs.
• Chambers 2003: 64 rec, 130 targets = 49%.
  The primary Miami QB was Jay Fiedler, who had a 57% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 24th among fantasy QBs.

Average Miami QB completion % over the last 4 years = 55.25%
Average QB fantasy ranking over the last 4 years (using Footballguys standard scoring format) = 24.5
Looking ahead to 2007, the Dolphins will now have Trent Green under center. How have his receivers fared in Kansas City over the last four years? What was Trent Green's completion percentage over that same span? What were his fantasy rankings each of those years?
Trent Green completion % each of the last 4 years (end of season QB fantasy rankings in parenthesis)

• 2006: 61% (36) keep in mind, Green only played in about 7.5 games in 2006 due to injury
• 2005: 62% (8)
• 2004: 66% (4)
• 2003: 63% (3)

Kansas City top receivers each of the last 4 years

Year
Tony Gonzalez
Eddie Kennison
Rec
Targets
%
Rec
Targets
%
2006
73
103
70%
53
101
52%
2005
78
116
67%
68
108
63%
2004
102
143
71%
62
102
60%
2003
71
106
67%
56
99
56%​

Excluding Tony Gonzalez, due to his TE position, focusing only on WR Eddie Kennison's numbers, they compare to Chambers as follows...
Avg reception %

• Kennison (with T. Green): 57.75%
• Chambers (with 4 diff subpar QBs): 47.00%

That's over a 10% difference. To me that's enough to say that Trent Green's presence in the Miami offense will more than likely improve Chambers numbers in 2007 - at least that's what the numbers suggest on paper. Also worth note, Chambers will not have Wes Welker or Randy McMichael to steal away targets this year. That's 196 targets that will either go to Chambers or a combination of other players. Who are those other people? Miami's depth chart includes...

• WR1 Chris Chambers (154 targets in 2006
• WR2 Marty Booker (90 targets in 2006)
• WR3 Derek Hagan (37 targets in 2006)
• WR4 Ted Ginn/Az-Zahir Hakim (27 targets in 2006 - with DET)
• TE David Martin (36 targets in 2006 - with GB)

It's evidenced that Trent Green can definitely latch on to one particular receiver. If you have a doubt, ask Tony Gonzalez or for a WR, ask Eddie Kennison. Kennison led all WRs on the Chiefs in receptions for each of the last 5 years. Coincidentally, each season was with Trent Green at QB.

 

[RUDEbyallMEANS]

Nice find. It has been a while since Miami had a reliable Qb that makes smart decisions. We'll see what happens this year.

 

[finsforce]

Nice post. What I think is of note is that Green will have a better receiving corps in Miami than he had in Kansas City. With players like Chambers, Booker, Martin, Hakim, Ginn, and Booker, it would be no surprise if their numbers, particularly the veterans, increased this year opposed to the last season or two. I think Chambers has an opportunity to return to his 2005 Pro Bowl form this year. Of course, a lot of this potential success is reliant on the performance of the O-line.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

In the voice of the dude from the TJ Houshmanzadeh pronunciation commercial:

Chirs Chambers 1000 yards, lock it up!

 

[Vertical Limit]

We'll see. If Chambers doesn't have a 1000+ yard season, I think we trade him. We have so much depth at WR currently, Hagan so far has been our best receiving on the practices we have had, David Sutton is too showing us a lot of good things [could turn out to be another Vince Jackson]. And of course, we just drafted Ted Ginn Jr.

Chambers is no franchise player on any team. If we can get a high 2nd for him, I think we would take it. Not to mention that historically, Cameran's offense barely gives yards to receivers [see: Eric Parker; San Diego's leading WR in yards: 659 yards].

 

[Ohio Fanatic]

We'll see. If Chambers doesn't have a 1000+ yard season, I think we trade him. We have so much depth at WR currently, Hagan so far has been our best receiving on the practices we have had, David Sutton is too showing us a lot of good things [could turn out to be another Vince Jackson]. And of course, we just drafted Ted Ginn Jr.

Chambers is no franchise player on any team. If we can get a high 2nd for him, I think we would take it. Not to mention that historically, Cameran's offense barely gives yards to receivers [see: Eric Parker; San Diego's leading WR in yards: 659 yards].

I can agree only somewhat. Another perspective is that Cam didn't have a good WR in San Diego, so he funneled all his passes to his two best athletes, Antonio and Ladanian. His offense is based on Norv's offense, which is based on Coryell's offense, both of those offenses utilized WR's quite well (anD TEs). Really I think it's a matter of utilizing your weapons rather than making your weapons fit into your system. Given that we don't have a stud TE, I can see him making good use of CHambers, booker, GInn and Hagan.

 

[Geforce]

We'll see. If Chambers doesn't have a 1000+ yard season, I think we trade him. We have so much depth at WR currently, Hagan so far has been our best receiving on the practices we have had, David Sutton is too showing us a lot of good things [could turn out to be another Vince Jackson]. And of course, we just drafted Ted Ginn Jr.

Chambers is no franchise player on any team. If we can get a high 2nd for him, I think we would take it. Not to mention that historically, Cameran's offense barely gives yards to receivers [see: Eric Parker; San Diego's leading WR in yards: 659 yards].

I don't know if this is totally true because in 2005 McCardell did have over 900 yards receiving on 70 catches. Keenan played hurt last season and San Diego had to go to a receiver by committee approach,