Realistic payoff of trading back

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

I used this chart from Walterfootball.com as a baseline.

I'll use Pittsburgh as a trade-down partner for this instance.

Miami's pick No. 14 would be listed at 1,100 points, while Pittsburgh's No. 22 pick is at 780.

Based on this chart, Miami would be able to get Pittsburgh's second-round pick (56) and fourth-round pick (121) in the process, just by switching 8 spots in the first round. That'd more than make up for the compensation lost in the Kenny Stills trade, and it'd also give Miami a lot more options with 7 picks in the first five rounds.

I know there was a thread about Miami being rumored to trade up, and while it'd be cool to get a blue-chip player like Cooper, it could be beneficial to drop back and get several immediate starters from the first two rounds.

While I'm here, I'll go ahead and do a quick mock based on the trade-down scenario just for the hell of it.

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php#BgGR0wIIY7ERwUSF.99

 

[Atila]

Do the Steelers have a reason to trade up with us? Or just wishful thinking?

 

[Travis34]

I'm okay with the scenario, so long as we still get good players. Having 2 seconds and fourths would be nice. Maybe even use a 4th (and something late, or a future pick) to get into the third..

But on the other hand, getting Cooper/White would be amazing, I just don't want to give up a ton to get there.. Especially our 2nd or 4th this year, which means we would have to trade future picks imo. I guess it depends with who/where we try to trade to...

Either way, as long as we get good players I'll be happy (I hope)

God the draft can't get here soon enough

 

[normaldude]

If we sign WR Greg Jennings and OG Evan Mathis before the draft, then it would make a lot of sense to trade back.

 

[Travis34]

Do the Steelers have a reason to trade up with us? Or just wishful thinking?

Think JC just used them as an example

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

Think JC just used them as an example

Yeah it was just an example.

 

[Bumpus]

I think it all depends on who is available at pick 14. If the guy we want is there, don't get cute & hope he'll still be there a few spots later - just take him.

However, if there are multiple good options left ... & someone we don't need but is coveted by other team(s) then it might make sense to gamble.

I realize that sounds kinda flip-floppy, but until I see how the draft shakes out up to #14 - I can't say what I'd do. :idk:

 

[ChambersWI]

trading back is easy, finding someone to trade up is the hard part

 

[broccoli rob]

Lets not forget that getting a few more picks doesn't equal immediate starters. When have we ever got several immediate starters in the first few rounds? Sure hasn't worked that way in the past

2014
second :Jarvis Landry <--- best 2nd round pick
third : Billy Turner

2013
second : Jamar Taylor
third : Dallas Thomas

2012
second : Jonathan Martin
third : Olivier Vernon < --- best third round pick

2011
second : Daniel Thomas
third : Clyde Gates

2010
second : Koa Misi
third : John Jerry

2009
second: Pat White
third: Sean Smith

In 6 years of drafting, I see one really good second rounder and one really good third rounder. Maybe if we were trading the 14th pick for the entire AFC North's second and fourth rounders, maybe we'd add several immediate starters.

 

[ITS!MATEO]

Lets not forget that getting a few more picks doesn't equal immediate starters. When have we ever got several immediate starters in the first few rounds? Sure hasn't worked that way in the past

2014
second :Jarvis Landry <--- best 2nd round pick
third : Billy Turner

2013
second : Jamar Taylor
third : Dallas Thomas

2012
second : Jonathan Martin
third : Olivier Vernon < --- best third round pick

2011
second : Daniel Thomas
third : Clyde Gates

2010
second : Koa Misi
third : John Jerry

2009
second: Pat White
third: Sean Smith

In 6 years of drafting, I see one really good second rounder and one really good third rounder. Maybe if we were trading the 14th pick for the entire AFC North's second and fourth rounders, maybe we'd add several immediate starters.

Yes, but you have to look at who was drafting in those years... Hickey has a very solid draft record. Plus, look at last years draft as to what you should expect this draft, as opposed to what happened when we had another GM. I'm 100% behind giving Hickey more ammo to load up.

@Daniel Thomas, Pat White and Clyde Gates in the 2nd round...

 

[ITS!MATEO]

Btw, I doubt we get a 2nd AND a 4th just moving down 8 spots. I know that's what the chart may say, but when was the last time someone got that much in trade for moving down just 5-10 spots?

I think a 2nd alone would be great. I was thinking a 3rd would be all we would get, honestly.

 

[Aqua and Orange]

Lets not forget that getting a few more picks doesn't equal immediate starters. When have we ever got several immediate starters in the first few rounds? Sure hasn't worked that way in the past

2014
second :Jarvis Landry <--- best 2nd round pick
third : Billy Turner

2013
second : Jamar Taylor
third : Dallas Thomas

2012
second : Jonathan Martin
third : Olivier Vernon < --- best third round pick

2011
second : Daniel Thomas
third : Clyde Gates

2010
second : Koa Misi
third : John Jerry

2009
second: Pat White
third: Sean Smith

In 6 years of drafting, I see one really good second rounder and one really good third rounder. Maybe if we were trading the 14th pick for the entire AFC North's second and fourth rounders, maybe we'd add several immediate starters.

Ah Jeff Ireland memories. Brings a tear to my eye...

 

[NBP81]

Yes, but you have to look at who was drafting in those years... Hickey has a very solid draft record. Plus, look at last years draft as to what you should expect this draft, as opposed to what happened when we had another GM. I'm 100% behind giving Hickey more ammo to load up.

@Daniel Thomas, Pat White and Clyde Gates in the 2nd round...

No matter who`s drafting, immediate quality starters after the secondd round is a long shot, especially if you draft for need...

 

[Hc90]

I think it all depends on who is available at pick 14. If the guy we want is there, don't get cute & hope he'll still be there a few spots later - just take him.

However, if there are multiple good options left ... & someone we don't need but is coveted by other team(s) then it might make sense to gamble.

I realize that sounds kinda flip-floppy, but until I see how the draft shakes out up to #14 - I can't say what I'd do. :idk:

This .......

Trade needs to be make on draft day . You never know what guy can fall on your lap or if everyone you wanted is gone and you'd like to trade back . All of this happens draft day

 

[Hc90]

Oh lord I just remembered about Clyde gates aka fast for nothing .

Think he went to the jets after