Realistic Sack Total for Dion Jordan Next Year?

[Fins1971]

Should be a valuable lesson. Take under every time and you'll grind an advantage. For some reason the public is fascinated by over.

But you bet the over on team wins. Must have been hard to go against the odds. LOL Glad you won.

It should be noted that Jordan did cause 2 Interceptions due to qb pressures. Like somebody said earlier sacks are over rated.
I'll take a forced interception over a sack any day. It seems we get sacks on 1st down and then give up the 3rd down play.
When that happens the sack is wasted IMO. When a sack comes on 3rd or 4th down then it is a big play.
So Jordan had 2 sacks and 2 forced Interceptions in limited playing time.

 

[dlockz]

Should be a valuable lesson. Take under every time and you'll grind an advantage. For some reason the public is fascinated by over.

Not to mention on a fan website the over is almost always taken. I mean how many people were acting like 1500 yards was actually a possibility for Lamar Miller or some outrageous numbers by Tannehill. Nothing in watching games of Jordan in college suggested to me that he would have double digit sacks as a rookie, I figured 4 or less. Even with team record it seems every year we get plenty of 11-5's . I predicted 8-8 and much to my chagrin I was wrong. I try to never bet with my team involved though, I don't like betting on us to lose.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

But you bet the over on team wins. Must have been hard to go against the odds. LOL Glad you won.

It was very hard. Worse than you know. I hesitated initially and lost 15 cents from 6.5 over -120 to 6.5 over -135 only because it was an over. If it were a 1.5 game mistake on an under I would have pounced immediately.

I have a bias in favor of unders and it doesn't always help me. My system can tolerate unders but with overs I get antsy if things go wrong early. When I was a regular on Las Vegas radio handicapping programs in the late '80s through mid '90s a guy eventually approached me after the program ended and showed me a chart. He had tracked all the regular handicappers on the Stardust Line program every Saturday and Sunday night and broken it down by category. My record was one of the best but it was mostly due to totals. My winning percentage was higher on totals than sides, and best on overs. I doubletaked at the chart and realized I had to lose my distaste for overs.

The two guys I was working with at that point had been trying to increase our focus on totals. We shifted and it worked out great for several years. My friend Dave made the totals on college basketball regular board games and I did the added games, i.e. the smaller schools. I'd give my numbers to Jeff, the guy who ran the phone operation. We'd play if our number varied from at least 3 points from the actual betting line. So if I made the total 144 and it was 147 or higher, we'd have a bet on the under. The greater the difference, the more we'd bet, often popping it 3 or 4 times. We had a nice edge until the sportsbooks adjusted and started making sharper numbers on totals. Jeff was very low key and professional but Dave had no finesse. It was hilarious at times. I remember once I made a total on a Southern Conference game and was much lower than the posted total, maybe 15 points. Dave asked if I were sure, and I checked again and stood by my number. We popped it 5 or 6 times. Well, my number was too low and the game went over comfortably. It was two very high scoring teams and I hadn't adjusted upward sufficiently. Dave was annoyed and kept mumbling for 2 or 3 days. Jeff just laughed it off and backed me, because otherwise we had been on a hot streak, "What a joke. One bad number and he goes berserk."

 

[utahphinsfan]

Like George Constanza's kid... I went with Seven.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

BTW, speaking of those season win over/unders, ckparrothead had two nice wins on the ones he touted -- Cardinals over and Lions under. Arizona was never in doubt but he looked like a certain loser on Detriot under 8 for the majority of the season. That 61 yard field goal by Tucker gave him a chance and then the Lions fully cooperated by blowing a small lead and losing the finale at Minnesota to finish 7-9.

He's not posting here right now so I thought I'd tout it for him. Imagine all the bettors who had Detroit over and thought they had it locked up. I think 7.5 was available at some spots.