Realistic team assessments........anyone, anyone?

[Canuck]

I'm neither optimistic nor pesimistic........so I'd characterize myself as realistic. And realistically, we will not fill all of our needs (and we have plenty) to make this team a true Super Bowl contender this year. We simply have too many to fill and at critical positions.

Firstly, the lack of a new CBA will thwart any of our efforts to be bold in free agency. We will not simply sign C-Bentley, QB-Brees, OLB-Peterson and CB-Law because we want them......and even if they want us......because we don't have the cap space to do so. Now should a new CBA be ratified by Mar 3rd, then I still don't see us making too big a splash in free agency THIS year. Maybe 1 (or 2) of the above but that's it. Saban is here for the long term and as such will be looking for long term solutions....not quick fixes.

So realistically, I see the Phins addressing QB, CB, LT and C in the draft and free agency (in that order) and focusing on getting younger on defense. Just don't expect each of those positions to be filled with pro bowlers right away. I can see a CB-Jimmy Williams or a LT-Winston Justice being selected at 16 leaving either a stop gap QB again for next year (Frerotte again?) with a up-n-comer (Whitehurst in round 2?) with an outside chance of landing a gimpy Brees or Culpepper in FA (assuming Culpepper is released).

Does that make us a Super Bowl contender? Perhaps......but realistically it sets us up for a "push" in 07' more than anything and as such I am happy with that.........

 

[GoonBoss]

I'm assumeing the NFL and NFLPA will get real and, realize that a CBA
is in everyone's best interests.

So......

I'm not going to count on the draft, becasue our position will probably dicate what Saban will do. My bet is he drafts the BPA.

The QB situation will be what dictates our success. We won't make the playoffs if Gus is running the show. We'll be close...Probably about 9-7 again. I wouldn't be disappointed in that. Many times teams regress after a year like ours, before springboarding up. Everyone loves Brees to death, but, I have real reservations about ANY QB who suffers a throwing shoulder injury like he did. I really think Brees, if we get him, will be more of a factor in '07 than next year.

The RB situation is a wildcard, too. I love Ronnie, and, love that we drafted him, but, he's gotta step up and, carry the load. I'm assumeing RW is out for the year. IF Ronnie goes down for more than 3 games, we're cooked.

The WR situation seems to have gotten better....If CC continues to finally show his potential, we'll have a big threat there. All Booker will have to do is hang in there and give us 2-3 plays a game. WW will continue to be our #3, and, Campbell will be #4. Now, if we just had a QB to get them the ball. I do not believe TO is coming here. I beleive the talk of him coming here is a-Wishfull thinking on TO's part. b-Saban smoke screening.

The D should be ok. I hope Poole can play well. The addition of Safety help is critical.

OL is a big concern. I'm hopeing for either Hutchinson or Bentley. Houck Should have them ready to play.

My best guess is 9-7 again. We may or may not make the playoffs with that record. It will depend on the rest of the AFC east which is looking pretty weak. My belief is that we will have to win the division outright to make the post season.

 

[Calvin Clean]

It is too early for any real team assessments. I think we can improve but there are too many "ifs." We can improve:

1. If Ricky and Ronnie both play - There is a chance Ricky is not guilty of the charges.
2. If we sign a quality starting QB - Gus is too inaccurate with his throws
3. If we fill some important needs at the OL - LT/G or C
4. If we pick up a quality CB in the draft/FA
5. If the Pats drop slightly in talent - allows Miami to win Division

 

[LarryFinFan]

Saban knows he has holes to fill. He won't count on the draft to fill all of them. He has to go after a QB in FA. He won't leave it to chance that we get the QB we need in the draft, but if he can't get a clear cut guy to take Gus' place (Brees, Culpepper, Brooks, McCown, Kitna) he'll go after a QB at least on day one of the draft. If he doesn't get Brees or Culpepper, then he may still go after a day one guy, otherwise he'll address it on day two.

CB/S: This is our second biggest need. If Schulters and Bell are re-signed (I am assuming Jones won't be back. He played well just prior to his injury but will never see that $6.8M here). Then the first pick could be a CB. There are several guys that project to be available when we pick that are worthy of the #16 pick. If he re-structures SMs contract, then he could go after a S or a CB. It would be fantastic if Huff is available to us...but there are a few other guys that could fill the need and not be a reach. If Bell, Schulters and SM are locked up, he could fill in depth with FA and go OL in the first. Poole and Mitchell are questions, but could come thru and solidify the CB spot whether or not SM re-signs.

I think the key is two fold: It reallly depends on what the status of SM, Lance and Bell are after March 3rd (or when FA begins)....and who he is able to get in FA pending the CBA ratification. We'll be hampered tremendously if the CBA isn't resolved. We could be in good shape if it is resolved with some cuts and restructures. If the CBA is resolve, other than QB, don't look to see big name FA signings. Look for several 'under the radar' signings like last year. Holliday, Carter, Schulters, Jones...all were not the top candidates at their positions, but became big parts of our resurgence.

But we also need more depth at several positions: A #3 WR, although Campbell may fill that hole is needed. WW is a nice player, but the position needs to be upgraded or a more solid #2, but I don't see him spending that kind of money on a WR. We need depth at LB, after the starters we are weak. Traylor is a question; Can Wright and Vickerson step up? I'd love to see us go after Grady Jackson to fill Traylors spot. But that'll depend on whether Saban sees Wright or Vickerson as at least part time starters to keep Traylor healthy and rested. OL we need at least one more starter from either hte draft or FA. My guess is that he'll fill this via FA...I don't see Big Mac back at his cap number so LT is a big hole to fill for whoever the QB is. Houck did some nice things in the OL this year. Is Alabi ready to step up ?? Can Smith play RG or at least backup Hadnot at C ??

The first step is getting room under the cap. Who is cut/restructures goes a long way towards what we'll need to do in FA and the draft. An extension of or no extension of the CBA is the next big step. Then a QB...

 

[Mr772]

OL is a big concern. I'm hopeing for either Hutchinson or Bentley. Houck Should have them ready to play.

Hey Boss if you hadn't seen, Hutchinson got tagged by the Hawks and I don't see us trading any picks or players for him so you can scratch him off your list.

 

[westernnyphinfa]

After reading the finheaven lead artick regarding Salary Cap, I think we (miami fans) are getting way out of control with who and what we think we can land via free agency.

Even After releasing a bunch of guys were still barely below the cap. If that is in fact the case, and unless someone on this site is a capologist that knows something that the author of that article doesn't how can we realistically afford to sign a Drew Bree's or Culpepper, or even a Mcnair, and still afford to fill other position needs? Aren't each of these guys around the 8 to 10 million a year mark??????????

I agree with the 1st post we still have 2 many needs and not enough of them can be filled in this off season, unfortunately we are still cap/strapped from the Wanny/Spielman regime, now im not saying we can't make a run at the playoffs im just saying , next year at this time we "should" be in much better shape.

 

[rafael]

Almsot everybody assumes they're realistic.

As for filling all our needs, I would guess you'd be hard pressed to find any coach in the history of the NFL who feels they filled all the teams needs.

I expect we'll address QB, (OL, LB, CB one of each none big money) in FA.

Then we'll fill in BPA in the draft.

 

[FinzFan]

After reading the finheaven lead artick regarding Salary Cap, I think we (miami fans) are getting way out of control with who and what we think we can land via free agency.

Even After releasing a bunch of guys were still barely below the cap. If that is in fact the case, and unless someone on this site is a capologist that knows something that the author of that article doesn't how can we realistically afford to sign a Drew Bree's or Culpepper, or even a Mcnair, and still afford to fill other position needs? Aren't each of these guys around the 8 to 10 million a year mark??????????

I agree with the 1st post we still have 2 many needs and not enough of them can be filled in this off season, unfortunately we are still cap/strapped from the Wanny/Spielman regime, now im not saying we can't make a run at the playoffs im just saying , next year at this time we "should" be in much better shape.

I thought these were the dollars against the cap if we release the player (includes salary and incentives - which count this year if no CBA):

CB - Sam Madison ($6.3 million)
S- Tebucky Jones ($6.8 million)
QB - Gus Frerotte ($4.68 million)
LT - Damion McIntosh ($4.48 million)
CB - Reggie Howard ($4 million)
LB - Junior Seau ($2.92 million)

That's $29.18 million available purely on releases, adn there are others to consider, and if we can get Zack and JT to restructure (combined they are due $18.6 million) - the even better. So, we should be able to get some (1, 2 or 3) decent players for that kind of scratch, yes?

***Note to Admin - my apologies for putting this in here as it seems it might be better suited in the Draft/FA boards. I was just trying to provide a few figures to clarify the quoted post***

 

[westernnyphinfa]

I thought these were the dollars against the cap if we release the player (includes salary and incentives - which count this year if no CBA):

CB - Sam Madison ($6.3 million)
S- Tebucky Jones ($6.8 million)
QB - Gus Frerotte ($4.68 million)
LT - Damion McIntosh ($4.48 million)
CB - Reggie Howard ($4 million)
LB - Junior Seau ($2.92 million)

That's $29.18 million available purely on releases, adn there are others to consider, and if we can get Zack and JT to restructure (combined they are due $18.6 million) - the even better. So, we should be able to get some (1, 2 or 3) decent players for that kind of scratch, yes?

***Note to Admin - my apologies for putting this in here as it seems it might be better suited in the Draft/FA boards. I was just trying to provide a few figures to clarify the quoted post***

If you can find some of the posts on different threads on this site regarding salary cap, you will see for example that yes a reggie howard gets paid 4 million but releasing him now only saves Miami 1 million, and that goes on pretty much for most of the players you named with a couple exceptions, TBuck and Junior.

And again im baseing what I stated on the article that appears on the front page of the finheaven site.

 

[realist]

here's realist's assessment

The QB is the single most important position which will make us a contender.

I look at last seasons losses and victories. Many of the losses were close to being a win, but our QB was not quite up to that level. ( or our OC called dumb-a__ plays). Our wins were earned. I wouldn't say we 'lucked out' in any of them. I don't recall phantom calls going our way.

We ended the season winning six straight with Gus Frerotte tossing 50% completions.

We don't need to have a Peyton Manning at QB to win the SB( it didn't help the Colts or the Dolphins of the 80's and 90's- to have the best QB in the league) Although it would be nice.

we need to keep Saban's philosophy and systems in place and upgrade QB.

insant contender!

realistically.

 

[PHINANALYST]

Here is a quick 'pre-draft / FA' assessment ...

Defense:

With the additions of Vickerson and Wright ... our DL will automatically be a bit better. [Just need to ensure that we have a Trayloresque plug]

We still need another Saban LB ... won't get a 'big name' but either FA or Draft so SPRAGAN can be our primary off the bench.

For CB -- we are improved with POOLE [even if he only plays nickel] ... still don't see MADISON going anywhere unless it is a trade [CAP] ... HOWARD is more likely to get cut ... but believe he will be traded as well - if at all possible.

S is where we need the most help !!!! This is where most of our available CAP space after cuts and signing BREES will go !!!

OFFENSE:

QB nees to be upgraded, but if we can't get BREES [$$], and if SABAN doesn't want RAMSEY for cheap ... then it's likely a draftee ... AND THAT MEANS GUS FOR ANOTHER YEAR ! GUS CAN get us to the playoffs ... IF we IMPROVE the DEFENSE !

RB we are good enough - with or without RICKY [clearly much better WITH him - but we don't have to do cartwheels if he's gone]

WR we are average ... we don't scare anyone .. but good enough to get to the playoffs ... we need improvements after Welker !! CC, BOOKER & WELKER can be solid.

OL: We need to replace MCINTOSH ... no way he stays at 4 MIL ... and maybe JAMES restructures to give us some flexibility to sign 1 OL ... preferebly a C -- because we can DRAFT a T if ALIBI isn't deemed ready yet. The line can't get much better than last year without new players.

We don't need a LOT of improvements to make us a solid PLAYOFF caliber team .... and the season will come down to improvements on the DEFENSE -- not necessarily on the OFFENSE ... side of the ball !

Our FA $$ NEEDS to be spent on a S and BREES ... [as much as I would love to see BENTLEY -- I just don't see us having the CAP for it] ...

Draft BPA ... with emphasis on T, S, LB ... but will take DL & CB if value is too overwhelming.

This would leave just 1 glaring deficiency ... C ... I don't think that HADNOT is the answer [if we could only sign MAWAE for a cheap 2 year contract] ...

 

[GoonBoss]

Hey Boss if you hadn't seen, Hutchinson got tagged by the Hawks and I don't see us trading any picks or players for him so you can scratch him off your list.

Yeah, I just saw that.

I'm not the rabid follower I used to be.

Oh well...Bentley it is.:D

 

[PhinGeneral]

If we were to keep the team the same, we should improve just by players having a year in this system under their belt, and expected improvement by last year's rookies and young guys with upside like Bell and Hadnot.

Since we obviously will not keep the team the same, if Saban and his staff have the same type of success with the draft and free agency that they had last year we do stand the chance of being measurably improved.

If things break right, it's not inconceivable to make the Super Bowl. You also don't need to fix every hole to get there.

If we can stay relatively injury free, I would think we should at least be a solid playoff team.

 

[motioncityhifi]

Hey Boss if you hadn't seen, Hutchinson got tagged by the Hawks and I don't see us trading any picks or players for him so you can scratch him off your list.

Hutchinson only got a transition tag. We dont have to trade picks for him. Seattle simply just retained the right to match any offer that he signs. If they dont match it, he walks and Seattle gets nothing.

 

[Mr Dolfan]

All I know is that Saban will use each step (restructuring contracts, FA, Draft,ect.) to the fullest that he can. At our first pre-season game, I fully expect to see a team that is staffed with a healty mix of veterans and rookies, An offense that moves the ball and a defense that can get off the field for a change after 3rd down. This team will have serious playoff contention and hopes for even more.

Has there been a time in the last decade that there was so much hope for Miami?:dolphins: