6. Miami Dolphins (6-4)
Playoff odds: 29.4 percent
Out of nowhere, the Dolphins have sprinted into the AFC playoff picture. After a 1-4 start capped by an embarrassing performance against the Bengals on national television, Adam Gase finally settled on a running back in Jay Ajayi and managed to right the ship. Ajayi's emergence as a workhorse back has shut off the turnover spigot for the Dolphins, who had 11 giveaways in four contests before their game against the Steelers on Oct. 16. Since then, Ryan Tannehill's offense has given up the ball twice in five games while the defense has forced nine takeaways.
The downside: Their five-game winning streak doesn't hold up well under scrutiny. They beat the Steelers 30-15 in a game where Ben Roethlisberger was injured and mostly useless in the second half. Miami beat the Bills by three in a game where they were really up by more until a meaningless late Buffalo touchdown, but their next three games have basically been coin flips: They won on a late kick-return touchdown over the Jets, a pick-six with 1:13 left over the Chargers as San Diego was approaching field goal range, and needed two late touchdown drives to prevail over a mostly-useless Jared Goff in his first NFL start on Sunday. They've benefited from wildly important-but-unsustainable plays in key moments and an ugly slate of opposing quarterbacks.
A ground game is there, and the defense has woken up, and they may have locked up enough wins at 6-4 to sneak in as an average football team because the remaining schedule isn't tough: They still have the 49ers, Ravens, Cardinals, Jets and Bills to play before a Week 17 tilt against the Patriots, who might not have anything to play for and would presumably sit the likes of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. FPI may very well be underestimating their chances at this point.
5. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
Playoff odds: 30.2 percent
The unlucky Bills finally caught a break: After going 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season, they did enough on offense and took advantage of the injuries to Green and Bernard to beat the Bengals 16-12. (It didn't help the Bills, to be fair, when they lost Shady McCoy to a thumb injury, although Mike Gillislee was effective in McCoy's absence.) It wasn't pretty, but the Bills did enough to win in Cincy.
The Bills also will be favored this upcoming week, when they face the Jaguars at home in Buffalo, but it's tough to see that turning into a winning streak, as they travel to Oakland in Week 13. The good news: four of their final six games are at home, including tilts against the Jags and Browns, and the other road trip is to face the lowly Jets in Week 17. The problem is they don't hold up well in tiebreakers. The Bills already have lost to wild-card contenders such as the Ravens and Dolphins, and they're 2-4 in AFC contests so far this year. The Raiders, Steelers and Dolphins tilts will be critical as the Bills try to sneak in with a 9-7 or 10-6 record.