Ronnie - Interesting read

[jbond]

First, I didn't compile this, someone else did responding to an article at http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_football_dolphins/2006/10/ronnie_brown_fi.html but it's got some good statistics and makes you wonder how much better Ronnie COULD be if behind a better line and given more carries.

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Posted by: Ronnie is a BUST | October 26, 2006 at 02:20 PM

Hmmmm .... I wonder what Phil Simms is basing his comments about Ronnie on ... his personal opinion perhaps? Not the facts apparently.

It looks to me like Ronnie is well on his way to being a very good if not great back. Last year, Ronnie was splitting carries with Ricky Williams and he missed the last 2 games due to a minor knee sprain and he ended up with 907 yards rushing 4.4 yards per carry and 232 yards and 7.3 yards per reception. Ronnie's ypc is THE SAME as Ricky's 4.4 yards per carry.

Let's compare him to this year's top running back, Tiki Barber. Guess how long it took him to put up better numbers than Ronnie? Tiki didn't have better rushing numbers than Ronnie until his FOURTH YEAR in the NFL ... 1,006 yards rushing and 4.7 yards per carry. They must have been calling Tiki a bust in those first 3 years in New York.

Last year, Tiki put up good numbers but he also got 357 carries or around 23 carries per game. Tiki has had above average offensive lines too. Ronnie got 207 carries or around 13 carries per game. Those 10 extra carries per game could add up to a bunch of long runs and plenty of those 10-20 yarders that Ronnie does on a regular basis.

Let's compare Ronnie's first 6 games in the NFL to Lawrence Maroney's. In Ronnie's first 6 games as a rookie, he had 438 yards and 5.2 yards per carry. In Maroney's first 6 games as a rookie behind a MUCH better offensive line that protects Tom Brady, he had 361 yards and 4.2 yards per carry.

Let's compare Ronnie's first 6 games in the NFL to THIS year's #2 overall draft pick, Reggie Bush. In Ronnie's first 6 games as a rookie, he had 438 yards and 5.2 yards per carry. In Reggie Bush's first 6 games as a rookie behind a MUCH better offensive line, he had 196 yards and 3.0 yards per carry.

LaDainian Tomlinson only got 3.6 yards per carry as a rookie. He also had 339 carries that year or around 21-22 carries per game.

Ronnie got 4.4 yards per carry as a rookie. He had 207 carries or around 13-14 carries per game.

Imagine what Ronnie could do with a decent offensive line and 339 carries per season (21-22 carries per game). The math shows that Ronnie might have had 1,492 yards in his rookie year. (339 x 4.4). At Ronnie's current ypc, which will probably improve to 4.4+, he could have 1,288 yards IF he got 339 carries this year. (3.8 x 339).

Let's compare Ronnie's career numbers to Cadillac Williams' numbers since they were both rookies last year. Cadillac has run the ball 394 times for 1,572 yards which comes to a 4.0 yards per carry average. Ronnie has run the ball 329 times for 1,372 yards which comes to a 4.2 yards per carry average. Cadillac has receiving yards of 157 yards for a 4.5 yards per reception average. Ronnie has receiving yards of 448 yards for a 7.9 yards per reception average. Cadillac has 1,729 all purpose yards so far in his career. Ronnie has 1,819 all purpose yards so far in his career.

Ronnie has 216 yards receiving so far this year ... he'll likely have more than the 232 yards he got last year after the upcoming Bears game on 11/4. Ronnie is projected to have 494 yards receiving this year. With his rushing projection as of today (3.8 ypc .. which will probably go back up to 4.4) he should get anywhere from 1,080 yards to 1,227 yards. That adds up to all purpose yards for 2006 of 1,574 - 1,722 yards. Not too bad at all.

Bottom line ... Ronnie Brown is performing as well as most NFL stars do in their rookie year, if not BETTER. His yards per carry numbers are pretty good ... especially for a rookie last year. Ronnie is not getting enough carries to put up the big 1,300+ Pro Bowl type rushing numbers. Ronnie doesn't have any control over this. That's up to Saban and Mularkey.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=8417

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/133448/gamelogs/2005

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=1218

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=9607

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=9588

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=2553

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=8420

 

[GT Dolfan]

good read...thanks for posting this. I feel Ronnie Brown is getting too much criticism for the position he has been put in.

 

[RoninFin4]

good read...thanks for posting this. I feel Ronnie Brown is getting too much criticism for the position he has been put in.

Exactly, if we give this guy some form of a decent O-line, watch out!

 

[Dolphan5876]

Not to mention he will have Ricky helping out next year. CAN'T WAIT!!!!!

 

[SouthJerseyFin]

i think dominizzo needs to read this

 

[Coral Reefer]

Not to mention he will have Ricky helping out next year. CAN'T WAIT!!!!!

Possibly.

I certainly don't want us making any plans based on the wild card that is Ricky Williams. That would be extremely foolish. If he comes back fine but I certainly would'nt put any money on it happening.

As for R. Brown, it was a good read.
I'm in the camp that he'll be fine.
I'm dissapointed in his lack of open field burst and a little more concerned about his vision than I was before but I still believe he's going to be a very solid back.

 

[PerfectFinz72]

Very good read. I've been high on Ronnie since day 1 and among the Ronnie defenders so its nice to see some good stuff to back it up.

 

[Namor]

Ronnie needs more carries a game even with this line.
He really needs more touches in the 4th qtr.

 

[sports24/7]

Great read.

 

[Phinz4Life]

Ronnie Brown doesn't make him say "my gosh"?

Someone get him various clips from last year.

The one handed catch, the AMAZING TD run against the Chiefs, that epic run for a 1st down against the Browns where he was stopped twice in the backfield, along with so many more.

Did he not see Ronnie Brown LEAP over a defender en route to a TD during the comeback win over the Bills?

Phil Simms can kiss my a**.

 

[PhinsPhan]

That my gosh comment by Phil Simms was rediculous. I have always bashed Phil Simms and understand why Parcells didn't think that highly of him. He is an idiot.

I remember in 2004 he would just go on and on and on about how if he was to start a team with one single player it woudl be Daunte Culpepper. Not just this but his analysis of the game is rarely on point and his analysis of players is almost never on point. He has Patriots love and just wouldn't be able to live without Tom Brady around.

Anyways, the my gosh comment was typical. He flip flops all the time. Did he see a Browns run when we had already lost the game and he broke 5 tackles. Brown does things like this almost regularly that make me say my gosh.


Btw, nice post.

 

[csabe]

Good read, imagine if we actually committed to a running game. Not only would Brown's stats be better, we would most likely be 4-3 or 3-4 at least. Imagine our QB's not having to pass 50-60 times a game? Never mind, won't happen with Mularkey and why Saban hasn't made him run the ball is beyond me.