And a few others, too.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=60&articleid=29927
Discuss.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=60&articleid=29927
Rotoworld.com said:[SIZE=+1]1. Brian Brohm, Louisville[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/224
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.79
Comparison: Carson Palmer
2007 Statistics: 308-of-473 (65.1%), 4,024 Yds, 30 Tds, 12 Ints, 3 Rush Tds
Positives: An all-state high school point guard who was drafted by the Rockies in 2004, Brohm is a natural athlete. He started three and a half years at Louisville and never completed under 63.6% of his passes. Brohm's release, touch, and all-around mechanics are outstanding. His preparation and passion for the game is comparable to Peyton Manning's. Brohm is adept at reading coverages and was effective in new coach Steve Kragthorpe's more pro-style offense after Bobby Petrino left for the Falcons in early 2007.
Negatives: Brohm tore his ACL ten games into the 2005 season and missed three games in 2006 following thumb surgery. Brohm also had surgery on his throwing shoulder in January of 2007, although he didn't appear to lose any arm strength, averaging 8.51 yards per attempt with more passes thrown and yards than ever.
Lewin on Brian Brohm: There is very little not to like about Brohm. People were turned off by Louisville's struggles in 2007, but Brohm stayed exceptionally accurate. He hardly ever threw interceptions in college. In terms of execution, Brohm compares to Tom Brady. He is as close to a surefire franchise quarterback as there is in this year's draft.
Verdict: Brohm's arm isn't on Andre Woodson's level, but his combination of accuracy, smarts, and work ethic is the best in the draft. Durability is a concern, but his specific injuries haven't been recurring. Brohm is unlikely to be the top QB taken because of all the hype surrounding Matt Ryan, but he has the best chance to be a Pro Bowl caliber player. Brohm is still likely to go in the middle of the first round, and could creep into the top ten.
[SIZE=+1]2. Andre Woodson, Kentucky[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'4/234
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.80
Comparison: Jason Campbell
2007 Statistics: 327-of-518 (63.1%), 3,709 Yds, 40 Tds, 11 Ints, 3 Rush Tds
Positives: Woodson took over after Shane Boyd's departure in 2005 and started the next three years, improving markedly in each. Woodson was never injured during his college career. He has ideal arm strength, and has been known to throw the ball 70-80 yards downfield. He also isn't afraid to tuck and run. Woodson is from a military background, has a disciplined personality, and showed excellent decision making skills against elite college competition.
Negatives: Woodson has a somewhat deliberate throwing motion. He can get happy feet in the pocket and pat the ball too much. Woodson took at least 30 sacks in each of his three years as a starter, although his protection was inconsistent and SEC opponents hardly had to worry about the Kentucky running game. Woodson will not be a scrambler in the NFL.
Lewin on Andre Woodson: Woodson's accuracy is not spectacular, but he projects as an above average to good starting NFL quarterback. Brett Favre got away with a windup, and Woodson's isn't in Byron Leftwich's league. The only way Woodson should fail is if NFL coaches tinker with his delivery. Teams can be very confident using a late first-round pick on Andre Woodson.
Verdict: Woodson threw for 358 yards and four TDs against a highly talented Florida State secondary in the Music City Bowl. He entered the offseason a potential top-15 pick. His stock now appears to be falling after a shaky Senior Bowl showing. It is amazing that three seasons of superb production in the SEC could be erased by one pre-draft event. Considering who coached him (QB-breaking 49ers coordinator Mike Martz) and that every quarterback on the South squad (also Colt Brennan, Erik Ainge) struggled in those practices, it is no surprise that Woodson, whose skill set is the exact opposite of a Martz QB, did as well. Woodson has a minor mechanical flaw, but it will be a crime if he falls well into the second round.
[SIZE=+1]3. Matt Ryan, Boston College[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'5/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.82
Comparison: pre-Super Bowl XLII Eli Manning
2007 Statistics: 388-of-654 (59.3%), 4,507 Yds, 31 Tds, 19 Ints, 2 rush Tds
Positives: Ryan redshirted as a freshman and took over for injured Quinton Porter as a third-year sophomore. He showed toughness playing through a foot injury as a junior. Ryan had a weak supporting cast at BC, but still found ways to win. He has ideal intangibles and is a proven leader. He doesn't have a cannon, but possesses good arm strength and can make most of the NFL-required throws. Ryan's best attributes are his picturesque delivery and consistency in the clutch.
Negatives: Ryan only started for two and a half seasons. His completion rates dropped each year. Ryan missed a game as a fourth-year junior with a high ankle sprain and underwent offseason foot surgery. He will force throws into coverage and threw too many picks as a senior. Ryan's upside is limited because of his only above average combination of athleticism and arm strength.
Lewin on Matt Ryan: Ryan's number of pass attempts as a senior is staggering and may have contributed to his modest completion rate. Ryan is like Carson Palmer in going through his progressions and his mechanics are flawless. But his production just wasn't that great in college and his inconsistent decision making sends up a red flag. People fall in love with guys like Matt Ryan, but he certainly isn't worth the No. 1 pick overall. Ryan would be a better fit in the second round.
Verdict: Ryan's completion percentage to college starts ratio is not nearly as impressive as Woodson or Brian Brohm's. He wasn't surrounded by great weapons, but did have an elite offensive line. Because he can look so special on film, Ryan will be a first-round pick and projects as a solid NFL starter. But his tendency to force things is a flaw that can be uncorrectable. Ryan's decision to withdraw from pre-draft events also will not help him on April 26.
[SIZE=+1]4. Chad Henne, Michigan[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/228
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.79
Comparison: Jake Plummer
2007 Statistics: 162-of-278 (58.3%), 1,938 Yds, 17 Tds, 9 Ints, 0 Rush Tds
Positives: Henne has rare experience as a four-year starter. He gets another leg up because of his time under center in Michigan's pro-style offense. Henne has close to an ideal arm and can make all the necessary throws. He is especially accurate in the vertical game. Henne is mechanically sound and puts good touch on underneath passes. He can be a game manager and is effective on play fakes.
Negatives: Considering his weapons (Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington, Mike Hart), Henne should have put up better numbers across the board in college. He doesn't always know when to throw the ball away and can be streaky. Henne will not be a running threat in the NFL. His senior year was his worst, as Henne struggled while playing through a separated shoulder.
Lewin on Chad Henne: Henne was never all that accurate at Michigan, but his college pedigree and skill set are similar to Brady Quinn's. With loads of starts against top defenses, Henne established that he can play at a pretty high level. Scouts do not miss on guys who started all four years. Henne is probably the No. 2 quarterback in the draft, behind only Brohm, and just ahead of Woodson and Ryan.
Verdict: Henne's college stats were never prolific, which could be due to a number of factors (i.e. opponents, conservative UM offense). He also never got much better after his freshman season. But Henne has the intangibles, toughness, and physical traits to be a ten-year starter and an above average NFL quarterback. His stock is on the rise after a strong showing at the Senior Bowl, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he's a late first-round pick. Just don't expect many Pro Bowl appearances.
[SIZE=+1]5. Josh Johnson, San Diego[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/198
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.61
Comparison: Steve McNair
2007 Statistics: 206-of-301 (68.4%), 2,988 Yds, 41 Tds, 1 Int, 101 carries (7.2 YPC), 2 Tds
Positives: Johnson is the top athlete among QBs who will be drafted. He has speed to pick up yards with his feet and moves to elude defenders in the open field. Johnson started three years at USD and never completed less than 66.3% of his passes. He improved by leaps and bounds each season. Johnson faced weak competition in D-IAA, but excelled against higher level players and won Offensive MVP of the East-West Shrine Game. He is a legitimate dual threat who is not known to be involved in dog fighting.
Negatives: Johnson must add weight to his frame to hold up at the next level, and more bulk could slow him down. He is considered to have a good arm, but must work on his touch. He also faces a major jump up in not only competition, but concepts as he learns an offense that will be much more complex and demanding than the one he played in at San Diego. Johnson is highly unlikely to make an impact during his initial one to two NFL seasons.
Lewin on Josh Johnson: In comparing two D-IAA quarterbacks, Johnson clearly is a better prospect than Joe Flacco. These are the Steve McNair-type numbers you look for from sub-Division I QBs.
Verdict: Johnson was recruited by Jim Harbaugh before Harbaugh took the coaching job at Stanford. Johnson drew interest from D-I schools, but was not offered scholarships. His high school used a run-first attack, with Johnson's cousin Marshawn Lynch the centerpiece on offense. Johnson broke his leg as a prep junior. Clearly he is a project, but Johnson's elite multi-faceted skills make him well worth a third- or fourth-round pick. Because Johnson has exhibited a high degree of accuracy, he is a far better prospect than Tarvaris Jackson was at this time two years ago.
[SIZE=+1]6. John David Booty, USC[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'2/213
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.93
Comparison: Damon Huard
2007 Statistics: 215-of-340 (63.2%), 2,361 Yds, 23 Tds, 10 Ints, 0 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Booty was at USC for five seasons and injured in four. He underwent back surgery in spring 2006 and was limited in or missed five games as a senior with a broken finger on his throwing hand. Booty is an excellent touch passer and throws well on the run, but his arm strength is average. He also lacks good size. However, Booty is very bright, plays well under pressure, and his mechanics are NFL ready. He was also in a pro-style offense for five years.
Lewin on John David Booty: Booty definitely isn't a top-two round pick, but you could see at USC why he was the No. 1 quarterback recruit coming out of high school. Booty comes from a quarterback family and a school rich in quarterback history. He has a real chance to be a good NFL starter.
Verdict: There are enough physical limitations on Booty's game that his upside in the pros is as a manager who won't make mistakes and cost his team wins. But Booty is tailor made for a West Coast offense that relies on timing patterns and asks a quarterback to roll out and make throws on the run. Booty played well when healthy at USC against top competition. At worst, he projects to be one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL.
[SIZE=+1]7. Erik Ainge, Tennessee[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'6/225
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.98
Comparison: Charlie Whitehurst
2007 Statistics: 325-of-519 (62.6%), 3,522 Yds, 31 Tds, 10 Ints, 0 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Ainge briefly split snaps with Rick Clausen as a sophomore, but ultimately started all four years. He had two legitimately good seasons. Ainge missed time as a freshman with a separated shoulder, five games as a sophomore with a neck injury, parts of two with an ankle sprain in 2006, and had ankle surgery in spring 2007. Ainge is bright and was annually an All-Academic SEC pick, but was prone to poor decisions and wildly inconsistent year to year at Tennessee. He did make huge strides when David Cutcliffe took over the Vols' offense in 2006 and finished his career on a high note.
Lewin on Erik Ainge: After four years, people know what Ainge is. He's not super talented, but is tall and has a pretty good arm. This is the type of quarterback you use a fourth-round pick on.
Verdict: Ainge has ideal size and can make most of the throws, but his extreme ups and downs are alarming. His confidence is easily shaken. Ainge's durability is another huge question mark. He was surrounded by NFL-caliber talent each year in college, but was something of an underachiever. While he's a risk worth taking on the second day of the draft, Ainge is still a work in progress. He should benefit from two or three years of learning behind an entrenched, veteran starter.
[SIZE=+1]8. Colt Brennan, Hawaii[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'2/185
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.73
Comparison: John Beck
2007 Statistics: 359-of-510 (70.4%), 4,343 Yds, 38 Tds, 17 Ints, 8 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Brennan's production was outrageous in coach June Jones' run-and-shoot system. He throws a tight spiral and will spread the ball around. A three-year starter, Brennan is a quick study and doesn't telegraph his throws. However, he's worked almost strictly from the shotgun and didn't have to go through progressions often. He also wasn't consistently asked to throw downfield. Brennan is confident and was a leader at Hawaii, but was kicked out of Colorado as a freshman after being accused of sexual misconduct. The charges were later dropped. Brennan entered the offseason as a possible first-day selection, but struggled (like Woodson) while being nitpicked by Mike Martz at the Senior Bowl. He also weighed in at 6'2/185 after being listed at 6'3/201 at UH.
Lewin on Colt Brennan: People knock Brennan for playing in Jones' run and shoot, but you didn't see Timmy Chang putting up those numbers. Chang's completion rates were always in the 50s. Brennan's were consistently in the high 60s and low 70s. Brennan has an unbelievable combination of vision and accuracy and his arm strength isn't a problem. His main issue is the big learning curve moving to a pro-style offense. With the right coaching, Brennan can be a successful starting NFL quarterback.
Verdict: It's going to be all about patience and opportunity with Brennan. If he falls to the sixth or seventh round or goes undrafted, Brennan will be buried on a depth chart or practice squad. He could get lost because he won't see any practice reps and his physical skills won't stand out. The signs do point to Brennan becoming a successful starter if he's brought along and nurtured like one. But as it stands now, he probably won't get that chance.
[SIZE=+1]9. Joe Flacco, Delaware[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'6/232
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 5.0
Comparison: Andrew Walter
2007 Statistics: 331-of-521 (63.5%), 4,263 Yds, 23 Tds, 5 Ints, 4 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: A classic dropback passer, Flacco has possibly the strongest pure arm in the draft. His accuracy at Delaware was solid, but Flacco faced weak D-IAA competition. He possesses tremendous size and is hard to bring down. However, Flacco played in a shotgun-heavy offense in college and struggled taking snaps from center at the Senior Bowl. His footwork is poor, and he has a slow dropback. Flacco also lacks any kind of mobility.
Lewin on Joe Flacco: Flacco's inability to beat out Tyler Palko for a starting job at Pitt sends up an immediate red flag. He posted good numbers in two seasons, but they still weren't on McNair or Chad Pennington's level. You want D-IAA guys to dominate like Josh Johnson. Flacco carries a lot of risk, and isn't worth a first-day pick.
Verdict: Flacco was behind Tyler Palko on the Pittsburgh depth chart early in his college career. He transferred to D-IAA Delaware, sat out the 2005 season, and began starting in 2006. Flacco has some intriguing tools, but wasn't good enough to beat out a quarterback that ultimately went undrafted and likely doesn't have a career in the NFL. Using reason, the idea that Flacco should be a second- or third-round draft pick is illogical. Flacco is more of a second-day to late second-day prospect who should be viewed as a project, not relied on to play within the next two seasons.
[SIZE=+1]10. Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'5/224
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.88
Comparison: Matt Gutierrez
2007 Statistics: 257-of-439 (58.5%), 3,063 Yds, 15 Tds, 8 Ints, 135 carries (3.0 YPC), 11 Tds
Positives/Negatives: O'Connell has good arm strength and ideal size. A four-year starter, he was also team captain each season after being redshirted. O'Connell exhibited resourcefulness, leading the Aztecs in rushing as a senior after RB Lynell Hamilton aggravated a knee injury that cost him the season. O'Connell also frequently played through nagging injury. However, his delivery, footwork, and accuracy are below NFL standards. O'Connell was a threat to run at SDSU, but won't be in the NFL.
Lewin on Kevin O'Connell: O'Connell's San Diego State teams were never any good and his statistics weren't either. Take him in the seventh round and see what happens, but there's little reason to believe he has a future.
Verdict: From a raw physical standpoint, O'Connell offers some potential. But his inability to win games or produce at an outstanding level against low-end Mountain West competition should eliminate most expectations. O'Connell was a decent quarterback at San Diego State, but has a ways to go if he hopes to have a career as a backup. He's a long shot to ever start an NFL game.
[SIZE=+1]11. Dennis Dixon, Oregon[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]12. Paul Smith, Tulsa [/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]13. Matt Flynn, Louisiana State [/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]14. Nick Hill, Southern Illinois[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]15. Ricky Santos, New Hampshire[/SIZE]
Other QBs with an Outside Shot to be Drafted: Sam Keller (Arizona State), Anthony Morelli (Penn State), Bernard Morris (Marshall), Kyle Wright (Miami FL), Xavier Lee (Florida State), Bret Meyer (Iowa State), Adam Tafralis (San Jose State), Bobby Reid (Oklahoma State)
Discuss.
