Run the Ball + Stop the Run = Success

[DolFan in NE]

The correlation between win percentage and yards per carry differential is 0.28.

By contrast, the correlation between win percentage and yards per pass attempt differential is 0.77.

Now, does that change in the playoffs as a function of weather? I don't think we really know. I suspect the first correlation may increase somewhat, but I suspect passing efficiency (YPA differential) still drives the bus.

What you're not understanding is the effect that running ball has in the playoffs and overall. Your YPA can drastically improve when you run the ball effectively. When you can establish the threat of the run you don't fall into predictability. See Hayden's post about Seattle running on 3rd and 9 and getting a 1st down. If you run the ball, your YPA becomes more effective, and you don't turn the ball over. Look at Luck last night. He had a higher YPA than Brady and yet they got hammered. Why? Cause they ran the ball at a ratio of 2:1. The Colts on the other hand ran it at a ratio of 1:2. It was also the same in the Seahawks game. The team that ran the ball more and was more effective at stopping the run dominated both games.

3 things can happen when you pass the ball and 2 of them are not good. Is your stat correlation based on regular season? If so, you play so many garbage teams that you can win throwing the ball 45 times and running it 20. Playoffs are a whole different animal.

I bet if you see a 1.5-2.0:1 ratio from the Chargers today, they will win.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Of the teams still alive, the team with the lowest rushing attempts per game is the Denver Broncos - at 28.8 (11th in the NFL).

Seattle - 31.8 (2nd)
New England - 29.4 (9th)

SF - 31.6 (3rd)
Carolina - 30.2 (7th)
SD - 30.4 (6th)

By contrast, Miami averaged 21.8 (29th).

 

[Shouright]

What you're not understanding is the effect that running ball has in the playoffs and overall. Your YPA can drastically improve when you run the ball effectively. When you can establish the threat of the run you don't fall into predictability. See Hayden's post about Seattle running on 3rd and 9 and getting a 1st down. If you run the ball, your YPA becomes more effective, and you don't turn the ball over. Look at Luck last night. He had a higher YPA than Brady and yet they got hammered. Why? Cause they ran the ball at a ratio of 2:1. The Colts on the other hand ran it at a ratio of 1:2. It was also the same in the Seahawks game. The team that ran the ball more and was more effective at stopping the run dominated both games.

3 things can happen when you pass the ball and 2 of them are not good. Is your stat correlation based on regular season? If so, you play so many garbage teams that you can win throwing the ball 45 times and running it 20. Playoffs are a whole different animal.

I bet if you see a 1.5-2.0:1 ratio from the Chargers today, they will win.

Well now you're talking about rushing attempts, and not yards per carry (rushing efficiency).

That correlation (rushing attempts differential and win percentage) on the other hand is 0.71.

 

[Hayden Fox]

If you define for me the most appropriate measure of "effective running team," I can tell you with precision.

Umm..I am not sure. I look at many of the top QB's that have a great yard per attempt stat and they are obviously know as good QB's. However, for example, I look at Nick Foles and I cannot help, but think Shady McCoy helps his yards per attempt.

Anyways, I am not a stat guy, but I wondered if there was a correlation.

I am a blue collar football guy, so I hate how the Fins have turned more finesse under Philbin. Give me a roster that players like the Seahawks, Niners or 2012 Ravens any day.

---------- Post added at 09:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:05 AM ----------

Of the teams still alive, the team with the lowest rushing attempts per game is the Denver Broncos - at 28.8 (11th in the NFL).

Seattle - 31.8 (2nd)
New England - 29.4 (9th)

SF - 31.6 (3rd)
Carolina - 30.2 (7th)
SD - 30.4 (6th)

By contrast, Miami averaged 21.8 (29th).

There was way too much burden put on RT this year. In his second year, he needed more support from, at the very least, more run calls.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Well now you're talking about rushing attempts, and not yards per carry (rushing efficiency).

That correlation (rushing attempts differential and win percentage) on the other hand is 0.71.

Most people - by now - know that winning the TO battle and winning the YPPA battle has a strong correlation to winning. I think because people are impatient by nature, they don't want to admit/hear/see that winning the RA battle is in that arena.

I coveted Jeremy Hill, because he's a bell cow. He would have been the closest thing to M. Lynch in the 2014 Draft.

 

[DolFan in NE]

Well now you're talking about rushing attempts, and not yards per carry (rushing efficiency).

That correlation (rushing attempts differential and win percentage) on the other hand is 0.71.

Correct. Rushing YPA can be skewed by a big run but if you pound away that big run is more likely to come. I'm all about effectiveness and balance. It's just like in life, if you over do something you're probably going to pay for it in the end. The Broncos, while flashy and Madden-esque, will not win the Super Bowl this year. The Pats, in my opinion, are better equipped to get to New York at this point. Them running the ball effectively not only helps Brady, it also makes the other team one dimensional and helps that crappy defense out where they only have to worry about one avenue on offense instead of two.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Umm..I am not sure. I look at many of the top QB's that have a great yard per attempt stat and they are obviously know as good QB's. However, for example, I look at Nick Foles and I cannot help, but think Shady McCoy helps his yards per attempt.

Anyways, I am not a stat guy, but I wondered if there was a correlation.

I am a blue collar football guy, so I hate how the Fins have turned more finesse under Philbin. Give me a roster that players like the Seahawks, Niners or 2012 Ravens any day.

---------- Post added at 09:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:05 AM ----------



There was way too much burden put on RT this year. In his second year, he needed more support from, at the very least, more run calls.

Absolutely. There's no doubt in my mind that we'll NEVER be a good team if we continue with our pass/run ratio. Whoever we bring in at GM and OC has to understand this. The Bills and Jets, btw, both understand this, and if we don't make significant changes, we're in danger of falling to the cellar of our division. It's rare for a team to commit TO's at the pace of the Jets when they run the ball that much (30.8 - 5th).

 

[Cowboynemo]

We had zero running game...we scared no one. Therefore, teams stacked the box and we were forced to throw more. Ryan T. had little chance to breathe, and receivers had little chance to run routes. That has got to be addressed. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Pouncey is the only survivor off the Oline.

 

[tcdrover]

Having your qb play better than the opposing teams qb = success.

The thread title is absolutely correct.

Teams MUST be able to run and stop the run, the QB play can't win you games if you can't stop the other team from taking all the time,

and you can't take time when you need to.

 

[So Be]

Anyone know how many playoff teams are using the ZBS as a base, vs the power 1 on 1 blocking?

 

[HarryBagpipe]

The thread title is absolutely correct.

Teams MUST be able to run and stop the run, the QB play can't win you games if you can't stop the other team from taking all the time,

and you can't take time when you need to.

In terms of passer rating differential, the top 7 and 10 the top 12 teams in this category made the playoffs. If you wanna add rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing tds, fumbles and sacks by the qb to the equation, teams with the higher qb rating posted an 86% winning percentage the last 2 seasons

There's a reason it's the most important position in the game. Your qb plays well while getting the other qb to struggle = success. That's why pass rushers and good secondary play is of imperative importance.

 

[FinHopeful]

You need to have a balance. Balanced teams are the most successful. I've always been a bigger fan of running the ball effectively than anything else. It gives you so many more options.

I agree. The option to attack the opponents weakness with your offensive game plan is very important!!

 

[jtsacksyou]

A smart GM would have seen this trend years ago. I've been saying it for a while. Right now you can get bargains on running backs and running oline in the draft. Also defensively, run stopping linebackers and NT's are as coveted as the athletic cover linebackers and the pass rush DT's. The strong safety's of the old days that can lay the wood and play the run have been phased out some too. Over the past few years smart teams should have been taking advantage of this. Today's defenses can't stop the 90's run offenses, they wouldn't stand a chance. Just think, a good full back would be had in the mid rounds in the past, now you can take your pick and get a good blocking full back if you want one, most teams elect not to have one. From a value perspective, you can be a strong running team much cheaper than you can be a strong passing team. Build the run, and keep looking for the QB to make everything else fall in place.

 

[gofins60]

Being able to run the ball effectively when you WANT to is what matters. I want an offensive line that will let the team run when they want to. No more of this letting the defense dictate what we do.
"Well they had 8 in the box so we had to throw"

Bull Hockey!! Line up and run the damn ball down their throats! Then, mix in the play action, bootleg, etc...

This is exactly what I'd like to see, but as long as Philbin is the Head Coach we'll never see it. The running game is just an afterthought in his offense, and that's why he needs to go!!!!!!!

 

[DuderinoN703]

It's funny. With all the emphasis on the NFL becoming a passing league, look at what's happening in the playoffs. It seems to bear out every single year. When the weather gets cold and more importantly the refs allow tighter coverage in the playoffs, being able to run the ball and stop the run become big factors in winning. Just on a whim, I went to the stats to look at the top 10 teams in each category. Very telling. http://www.nfl.com/stats/team?seasonId=2013&seasonType=REG&Submit=Go

We had a thread last week that said no team had a 100 yd rusher and that having a passing attack is how you succeed in this league. Now it's back to needing a running game?

Balance is key. If Miami had homefield advantage they'd be able to pass more because the weather would cooperate.