Running Back Myth (Ronnie Brown, a case study) | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Running Back Myth (Ronnie Brown, a case study)

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quikphish83

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In Armando Salguero's latest blog entery on Dolphins in Depth, Armando proceeds to perpetuate the common myth that runningbacks improve as they get more carries in a game. I've always been skeptical of this myth because journalists always back it up by comparing games where the back got 20+ carries with games where they got fewer. Inevitably the back would have a better ypc in the games they had more carries. But is this because they got more carries? Or is this simply the fact that when a team can run well, they run often. When a team cant run well, they quit before their primary back can reach the 20 carry mark.

To test this myth I looked at all 14 games since 2005 where Ronnie brown ran the ball at least 20 times (yes there are only 14!) I then compared the average ypc for carries 1-10 of each game with the average ypc of carries 11+.

Guess what I found. Ronnie averaged 4.81 ypc on the first ten runs and 4.68 ypc for carries 11+. Thus this myth is debunked. At least for Ronnie Brown. No one should believe that Ronnie Brown actually gets worse through the game because 4.68 and 4.81 are very similar. I actually ran a simple t-test in excel and found they are not statistically different.

Yes, I had too much time on my hands, but now you know...
 
Still want Ronnie getting more than 10 touches. He's clearly the most talented offensive player we have, or have had since he's been here.
 
In Armando Salguero's latest blog entery on Dolphins in Depth, Armando proceeds to perpetuate the common myth that runningbacks improve as they get more carries in a game. I've always been skeptical of this myth because journalists always back it up by comparing games where the back got 20+ carries with games where they got fewer. Inevitably the back would have a better ypc in the games they had more carries. But is this because they got more carries? Or is this simply the fact that when a team can run well, they run often. When a team cant run well, they quit before their primary back can reach the 20 carry mark.

To test this myth I looked at all 14 games since 2005 where Ronnie brown ran the ball at least 20 times (yes there are only 14!) I then compared the average ypc for carries 1-10 of each game with the average ypc of carries 11+.

Guess what I found. Ronnie averaged 4.81 ypc on the first ten runs and 4.68 ypc for carries 11+. Thus this myth is debunked. At least for Ronnie Brown. No one should believe that Ronnie Brown actually gets worse through the game because 4.68 and 4.81 are very similar. I actually ran a simple t-test in excel and found they are not statistically different.

Yes, I had too much time on my hands, but now you know...
Click to expand...

You're absolutely right in your assertion that teams run more when they're successful. I"m shocked that this isn't viewed around the NFL as common sense.

But, I think you failed to take something into account when viewing run 11 and on. Often when a RB gets over 20 carries his team is winning, and the team is running out the clock by handing off the ball. Of course, during these situation, the D knows the run is coming - stacking 8 or 9 players in the box.

I'm not saying anything you've posted here is wrong - just that it'd be more complete with the aforementioned acknowledgments.
 
tell that to zonk-ad-any great back.you are talking about .68 to .81 lol.take the computer and go away.its the second 10 that win games.its the second 10 that wears down a defenses.i was at every game the dolphins went 17-0.dont talk about running the football on some xl sheet.its played on the field.and i promise you the jets and every team in the nfl pray ronnie only carries it 10 times.
 
bert said:
tell that to zonk-ad-any great back.you are talking about .68 to .81 lol.take the computer and go away.its the second 10 that win games.its the second 10 that wears down a defenses.i was at every game the dolphins went 17-0.dont talk about running the football on some xl sheet.its played on the field.and i promise you the jets and every team in the nfl pray ronnie only carries it 10 times.
Click to expand...

To quote Football Outsiders: "You run when you win, not win when you run."
 
Really nice work. It's interesting analysis like this that make Finheaven great.

I especially like the T-test you applied. Nerd props.
 
It is not just that running backs get better.

The OL also gets into rhythm.

The defense also gets worn down.

I remember Ricky Williams and others breaking off 50 yard runs at the end of games.
 
rob19 said:
Still want Ronnie getting more than 10 touches. He's clearly the most talented offensive player we have, or have had since he's been here.
Click to expand...
Aren't you forgetting Ted Ginn?
 
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