Ryan Tannehill Analytics Profile Video.

[Jerrysanders]

Some more than others. Depends on if the offense has a new coach, new OC, breaking in a new scheme(s), getting familiar with new receiver(s). It doesn't balance out for QBs who have had the luxury to have played with the same coaches, schemes, and players for a particularly longer period of time.

And here you are talking about averages yet use "elite" for comparison which is extremely rare and certainly not the norm with the exception of 2 to 3, maybe 4 organizations out of 32 who happen-chance to land one every few decades or so.

Sound logic, u might be on to something with that but the farther you move up the scale from above average ,very good, to elite the smaller significance those have on overall QB production. Tannehills production is above average in some stats and just average in key stats like TD/INT.

Yes but its not only that, the other organizations have QBs they believe have the potential to become elite in the future and the ones that don't are constantly looking to replace their below average, average or even above average QBs the Chiefs and the Redskins are a prime examples of this. Another concerning fact is that Tannehill's production hasn't drastically increased under Gase which i believe is a knock on Gase.

 

[NBP81]

I blame this thread solely on the emergence of fantasy football and sports betting. Where the football game merges with with sidegames, mostly odds driven. Sharp players understand the difference, amateurs do not. Even Awsi is guilty of this.

Analytics are very useful in a odds driven setting where you benefit from volume and can safely disregard anomalies. Simply put, I need to be right roughly 60% of the time to make a profit, run your stats and analytics and take your profits... THE 40% of the time that Im wrong is just normal variance.

You just cant do this in a single argument about a particular player.... Well you can but but the over-simplicity of your argument is going to get crushed by people who can actually explain to you why all of your stats happened and how some/most of them are useless in that particular case...

There are now a thousand sites/blogs/articles about analytics and how you can become a millionnaire playing DFS or sports betting, and some people seem to misunderstand the differences between winning at an odds driven game with a shitload of 2.5% wins and a specific argument about a specific player...

Just my 2 cents...

 

[Jerrysanders]

I blame this thread solely on the emergence of fantasy football and sports betting. Where the football game merges with with sidegames, mostly odds driven. Sharp players understand the difference, amateurs do not. Even Awsi is guilty of this.

Analytics are very useful in a odds driven setting where you benefit from volume and can safely disregard anomalies. Simply put, I need to be right roughly 60% of the time to make a profit, run your stats and analytics and take your profits... THE 40% of the time that Im wrong is just normal variance.

You just cant do this in a single argument about a particular player.... Well you can but but the over-simplicity of your argument is going to get crushed by people who can actually explain to you why all of your stats happened and how some/most of them are useless in that particular case...

There are now a thousand sites/blogs/articles about analytics and how you can become a millionnaire playing DFS or sports betting, and some people seem to misunderstand the differences between winning at an odds driven game with a ****load of 2.5% wins and a specific argument about a specific player...

Just my 2 cents...

Fantasy driven analytics is different from win outcomes predicator Analytics. Kirk Cousins is a Elite in Fantasy Leagues but in these type of analytics he's just above average.

 

[Sons Of Shula]

Another concerning fact is that Tannehill's production hasn't drastically increased under Gase which i believe is a knock on Gase.

After the bye week it significantly increased.

It also takes about 8 weeks for an offense to settle and become comfortable in a new system. By no mistake, our offensive completion percentage was 71% during weeks 9-13 and in 3 of those 5 games had a passer rating of 130.6, 130.6, and 124.0.

 

[NBP81]

Fantasy driven analytics is different from win outcomes predicator Analytics. Kirk Cousins is a Elite in Fantasy Leagues but in these type of analytics he's just above average.

Explain to me how win outcomes predictator functions without copy pasting it from an outside source and then we'll talk... Till then Im not wasting my time with you...

 

[Jerrysanders]

After the bye week it significantly increased.

It also takes about 8 weeks for an offense to settle and become comfortable in a new system. By no mistake, our offensive completion percentage was 71% during weeks 9-13 and in 3 of those 5 games had a passer rating of 130.6, 130.6, and 124.0.

All of those were his highest marks for the 2016 season and I see u didn't mention the Ravens game where he had a 63 Qb rating. I would love for Tannehill just to have a slightly above average TD/INT. I'm not sold on Gase, he has shown me plenty of red flags being an offensive guru and a talent evaluator.

 

[Jerrysanders]

Explain to me how win outcomes predictator functions without copy pasting it from an outside source and then we'll talk... Till then Im not wasting my time with you...

What's wrong did you lose your money playing in a fantasy league and now you've decided to go on a tirade against all analytics smh . Please don't waste your time leave the thread.

 

[Sons Of Shula]

All of those were his highest marks for the 2016 season and I see u didn't mention the Ravens game where he had a 63 Qb rating. I would love for Tannehill just to have a slightly above average TD/INT. I'm not sold on Gase, he has shown me plenty of red flags being an offensive guru and a talent evaluator.

Of course those were where the highest marks of the season. It correlates with the time period for an offense to adjust to a new system.

The completion percentage still includes the Ravens game, but overall that was an abysmal game for the entire team and the Raven's kicked our ass in every phase.

Out of honest curiosity, what are the red flags you've seen from Gase on offense?

 

[Jerrysanders]

Of course those were where the highest marks of the season. It correlates with the time period for an offense to adjust to a new system.

The completion percentage still includes the Ravens game, but overall that was an abysmal game for the entire team and the Raven's kicked our *** in every phase.

Out of honest curiosity, what are the red flags you've seen from Gase on offense?

As far as Offensive Philosphy goes there's not many, I'm fan of Mesh Concepts but Im meh on some of the west coast spacing implements my biggest issue would be play calling which is much more important than offensive scheme philosophy, at the NFL level the game is a chess match between coordinators many philosophies can win its just who utilizies their tools (Lazors offensive philosophy was not bad at all) the best and exposes the other teams weakness the best. I don't see the type of jump in Tannehill's play the way Mcvay improved Cousins play, I firmly believe great coordinators improve QB play. I plan on making a thread on Gase's free agency moves, drafting, mismanagment of players, personnel hiring decision. and how we beat up on the weakest teams (weakest divisions) in the NFL and how 2016 might of been an outlier season. 2017 will be the real test for Gase.

 

[Sons Of Shula]

As far as Offensive Philosphy goes there's not many, I'm fan of Mesh Concepts but Im meh on some of the west coast spacing implements my biggest issue would be play calling which is much more important than offensive scheme philosophy, at the NFL level the game is a chess match between coordinators many philosophies can win its just who utilizies their tools (Lazors offensive philosophy was not bad at all) the best and exposes the other teams weakness the best. I don't see the type of jump in Tannehill's play the way Mcvay improved Cousins play, I firmly believe great coordinators improve QB play. I plan on making a thread on Gase's free agency moves, drafting, mismanagment of players, personnel hiring decision. and how we beat up on the weakest teams (weakest divisions) in the NFL and how 2016 might of been an outlier season. 2017 will be the real test for Gase.

Very good points all around. 2017 will be a great test on Gase's coaching abilities. I happen to agree and have similar concerns about the subjects you mentioned. One in particular is the high amount of close games we won is an indicator that we will slump this coming season.

Though I have to say I vehemently disagree with what you said about Lazor. He was an awful OC. He stole a partial playbook from Kelly and never improved on any of it. Here's a thread on that subject along with a mesh play I broke down of Lazor's and it's deficiencies in post #4.

Link: Chip Kelly (Bill Lazor) and the Vanishing Offense

 

[Jerrysanders]

Very good points all around. 2017 will be a great test on Gase's coaching abilities. I happen to agree and have similar concerns about the subjects you mentioned. One in particular is the high amount of close games we won is an indicator that we will slump this coming season.

Though I have to say I vehemently disagree with what you said about Lazor. He was an awful OC. He stole a partial playbook from Kelly and never improved on any of it. Here's a thread on that subject along with a mesh play I broke down of Lazor's and it's deficiencies in post #4.

Link: Chip Kelly (Bill Lazor) and the Vanishing Offense

Good Read.

I completely agree, Lazor was a horrible OC but I'm saying his Offensive philosophy wasn't horrible( I'm biased towards tempo and exploiting mismatches) even if it was a partial playbook, Lazor completely elevated the offense at Virginia where it was a pro style offense, He just sucked due to bad play calling and game management. The System could of worked with a decent Coordinator that won't handicap Tanny.

 

[Jerrysanders]

Very good points all around. 2017 will be a great test on Gase's coaching abilities. I happen to agree and have similar concerns about the subjects you mentioned. One in particular is the high amount of close games we won is an indicator that we will slump this coming season.

No matter what anyone tells you, the Miami Dolphins overachieved last season.

Their “expected wins,” a metric based on point differential (a better indicator of strength than record), was 7.6 wins and they had the AFC’s third easiest schedule, per Football Reference. They were the 17th best overall team last year, per Football Outsiders’efficiency ratings.

So despite the 10-6 record Miami was the quintessential average football team.

While I think the over/under of 7.5 wins may be a hair low, we also must keep in mind their schedule in 2017 appears to be unfavorable. This is before considering the fact they punted another home game, as they’ll “host” the Saints in London in Week 4.

http://slicemiami.com/2017/05/01/miami-dolphins-over-under-vegas/

Vegas is more optimistic than I am on us being 8-8,Unless Tanny plays Elite in 2017 its going to be a long season.

 

[Sons Of Shula]

Cheers Jerrysanders. It's been a pleasure discussing and debating football with you. I'll catch ya later. :thumbsup

 

[LoneStarPhin]

Jerry Sanders..... Never have so few argued so long against so many with so little ammo.

 

[Digital]

Its much better to use A/YA (better indicator of QB performance)

Assuming those adjustments are taking in things like ... down and distanace, score, etc. But the raw A/YA stat doesn't really do that to a large degree, so those adjustments aren't always telling. Again, people may have differing opinions, but if we are going to use one stat only, I'd go with Y/A. I do agree that A/YA is also a decent metric if you are only using one stat. But doubling down on both as two of your metrics is not wise. They are essentially trying to capture the same thing. In a weighted analysis it would be like weighting that metric twice as heavily but using two different analytical approaches to the same data capture.

The Author does the same thing by mentioning both QB Rating and QBR. Anyone with strong analytical background knows that those are not the best metrics for judging QB's, and the reasons are the ones I've stated in multiple posts now so I'll not be redundant. But his analysis is kinda like looking at a baseball batter and only gauging his average and home runs vs. left handed pitching, then doubling both of those. Its simply not enough information to determine whether the batter is an effective against the majority of the pitchers he faces. It doesn't even consider large parts of his game (like play vs. right handers). Doubling down on both Y/A AND A/YA is an extremely narrow analysis. Compounding that by doubling down on two less effective metrics like QB Rating and QBR, it simply isn't nearly as effective as he could have been. It compounds the narrow analysis.