This post is based on the following QB rating numbers for Ryan Tannehill over the course of his career:
Everyone knows what an average is. Not everyone knows what a standard deviation is. It's the average distance from the average of all the values in the dataset.
So what we see above is that in 2012, Ryan Tannehill's QB rating was all over the map. His average QB rating for the season was 76.36, but he posted QB ratings that ranged all the way from 39 to 123.3, again with an average distance from the season average (a standard deviation) of 25.79.
Through the first seven games of 2013, his average QB rating increased to 80.03, and his standard deviation decreased to 17.97. So through roughly the first half of 2013, we see an increase in his QB rating, with a simultaneous decrease in the variability of his QB rating. Or, said differently, we see an increase in his QB rating, with a simultaneous increase in his consistency.
Now here's the kicker: through the last five games, we see another increase in his QB rating -- this time roughly eight points -- to 88.30, which is above the league average, and we see a tremendous decrease in the variability of his QB rating.
In other words, through the last five games, not only has Ryan Tannehill performed better than he has through any five-game stretch in his career, but he's also been far more consistently good during that five-game stretch than he has through any other five-game stretch in his career.
The mark of a truly good player is consistently good play, by and large. Up-and-down play can be largely "fluke" play -- you never know what you're going to get. In other words, significant variability in someone's play prevents an accurate and reliable assessment of his ability.
I'd say the last five games are probably the single biggest sign of Ryan Tannehill's achievement and potential to this point in his NFL career. :up:
| GAME # | 2012 | 2013 First 7 Games | 2013 Last 5 Games |
| 1 | 39.0 | 82.3 | |
| 2 | 91.0 | 107.4 | |
| 3 | 50.2 | 94.5 | |
| 4 | 86.5 | 57.9 | |
| 5 | 92.3 | 86.1 | |
| 6 | 112.0 | 71.2 | |
| 7 | 50.4 | 60.8 | |
| 8 | 90.9 | 92.6 | |
| 9 | 42.4 | 84.3 | |
| 10 | 46.9 | 84.0 | |
| 11 | 97.1 | 86.4 | |
| 12 | 74.1 | 94.2 | |
| 13 | 66.2 | ||
| 14 | 123.2 | ||
| 15 | 93.8 | ||
| 16 | 65.8 | ||
| AVERAGE | 76.36 | 80.03 | 88.30 |
| STANDARD DEVIATION | 25.79 | 17.97 | 4.78 |
Everyone knows what an average is. Not everyone knows what a standard deviation is. It's the average distance from the average of all the values in the dataset.
So what we see above is that in 2012, Ryan Tannehill's QB rating was all over the map. His average QB rating for the season was 76.36, but he posted QB ratings that ranged all the way from 39 to 123.3, again with an average distance from the season average (a standard deviation) of 25.79.
Through the first seven games of 2013, his average QB rating increased to 80.03, and his standard deviation decreased to 17.97. So through roughly the first half of 2013, we see an increase in his QB rating, with a simultaneous decrease in the variability of his QB rating. Or, said differently, we see an increase in his QB rating, with a simultaneous increase in his consistency.
Now here's the kicker: through the last five games, we see another increase in his QB rating -- this time roughly eight points -- to 88.30, which is above the league average, and we see a tremendous decrease in the variability of his QB rating.
In other words, through the last five games, not only has Ryan Tannehill performed better than he has through any five-game stretch in his career, but he's also been far more consistently good during that five-game stretch than he has through any other five-game stretch in his career.
The mark of a truly good player is consistently good play, by and large. Up-and-down play can be largely "fluke" play -- you never know what you're going to get. In other words, significant variability in someone's play prevents an accurate and reliable assessment of his ability.
I'd say the last five games are probably the single biggest sign of Ryan Tannehill's achievement and potential to this point in his NFL career. :up:
