Sacks Have Little to Nothing to Do with NFL Quarterback Play and Winning | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Sacks Have Little to Nothing to Do with NFL Quarterback Play and Winning

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Shouright

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Given that the Miami Dolphins led the league in sacks with 58 this year, the following information may be of some interest.

At the following link we have the NFL quarterbacks who have made at least 500 pass attempts in a season since 1994, the first year of the salary cap:

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

Based on the 203 cases at the link above, the following correlations can be obtained:


COMP
ATT
COMP %
YARDS
TDs
INTs
QB RATING
SACKS
YPA
SACK YARDS
ADJ. YPA
ADJ. NET YPA
WIN %
SACK % CORRELATION
-0.32
-0.32
-0.16
-0.21
-0.23
-0.09
-0.10
0.98
0.00
0.90
-0.03
-0.26
-0.23

The correlations between sacks and the above variables, most notably QB rating, YPA, adjusted YPA, adjusted net YPA, and team win percentage, do not indicate that sacks have a significant impact on quarterback play, or on overall team play in terms of wins.

In other words, the way quarterbacks play in the NFL has nothing significant to do with how often they're sacked, and whether NFL teams win or lose has little to do with how often their quarterbacks are sacked.

Now, the idea that quarterback pressure, and not necessarily sacks, may impact quarterback play, may be one's next logical thought.

If so, realize that the Miami Dolphins, despite its league-leading number of sacks, did not experience any more frequent pressure on its quarterback than did the average NFL team in 2013.
 
Yeah except most significant QB injuries occur when getting sacked, and injuries do have an affect on qb play and winning. No offense but this is really stupid.
 
Tiger said:
Yeah except most significant QB injuries occur when getting sacked, and injuries do have an affect on qb play and winning. No offense but this is really stupid.
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Irrelevant to the 2013 Miami Dolphins' season, obviously.
 
After much reflection, I realized you don't know any more about statistics than you do football.

---------- Post added at 09:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:38 AM ----------

You put up the numbers but your conclusions are simply wrong.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
After much reflection, I realized you don't know any more about statistics than you do football.
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As always, I'm ready and willing to be enlightened by the more learned. Unfortunately I don't think I'm going to get it from the post quoted above, however. :)
 
...this just getting pathetic. Here's another's 10 pages of attention for you home dog. This is like saying in a fight that if one person got the **** kicked out of them, they're just as likely to preform well.
 
I'll give you a hint.... you are looking for a strong correlation between winning (or QB stats) based on the outcome of approx 2% of the offensive plays (that usually don't result directly in points) in a game. I would expect the correlation to be near 0. The fact that you find it "thread worthy" is an indication that you really don't understand what you are posting. This doesn't mean that sacks are not significant or have no impact on games. In fact, the sack by Wake against the Bengals WON THE GAME.
 
Travis34 said:
...this just getting pathetic. Here's another's 10 pages of attention for you home dog. This is like saying in a fight that if one person got the **** kicked out of them, they're just as likely to preform well.
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It's only attention for me if we talk about me, which I'm not here to do. What are you here to do?
 
Tiger said:
Yeah except most significant QB injuries occur when getting sacked, and injuries do have an affect on qb play and winning. No offense but this is really stupid.
Click to expand...

Agreed. It astounds me on the erroneous conclusions people base of stats. Watch the games people - when QB's are under constant pressure, they don't throw the ball as well and they get hurt. Duh.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
I'll give you a hint.... you are looking for a strong correlation between winning (or QB stats) based on the outcome of approx 2% of the offensive plays (that usually don't result directly in points) in a game. I would expect the correlation to be near 0. The fact that you find it "thread worthy" is an indication that you really don't understand what you are posting.
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That could indeed be the underlying reason for the weak to nil correlations. However, that doesn't nullify the conclusion that sacks have little to no impact on QB play and winning.

This doesn't mean that sacks are not significant or have no impact on games. In fact, the sack by Wake against the Bengals WON THE GAME.
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And now you're down to a sample size of just one, despite what you posted above.
 
rainmanat-1.jpg
 
Andyman said:
Agreed. It astounds me on the erroneous conclusions people base of stats. Watch the games people - when QB's are under constant pressure, they don't throw the ball as well and they get hurt. Duh.
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Well then if that's so obvious to even a moron, why isn't it readily found in the numbers?
 
Thank you for the info Shou. I value the statistics that you constantly provide us here at Finheaven. There are times when I agree with the info and times where I don't. In this particular situation I'm kind of on the fence. While I get what you are showing and definitely see the correlation that your statistics make.....I have watched every Dolphins game this season. While there have been many sacks that I would consider to be part of the norm in Football today I also believe that the Dolphins O-line has given up sacks at the worst possible times. I've also seen sacks that RT17 has taken without being able to get to a 2nd read and many where I don't even think he's be able to make a 1st read because he's not even finished in his drop. The "eyeball" test, to me, has clearly shown that there have been many situations in which a 1/4 to 1/2 second more would have allowed RT17 to have made a play versus having taken a sack. Especially in the 4th quarter. That being said, I see a quarterback like David Carr and how being sacked sooo many times may or may not have affected his QB play and there are many "analysts" out there that would say that was a huge cause if his lack of growth into the NFL game. Just me $.02
 
shouright said:
It's only attention for me if we talk about me, which I'm not here to do. What are you here to do?
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I couldn't put it any better than FinFanInBuf. Claiming you don't like all the attention from your weekly bs posts... lol okay
 
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