Seattle, Dallas, Chiefs and especially New England hold the key to the 3rd pick in the draft. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Seattle, Dallas, Chiefs and especially New England hold the key to the 3rd pick in the draft.

The Ghost

The Ghost

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Like many I thought when Atlanta lost that game, we'd end up at 4th. Fine, still a good day. Then came the news that Houston's SOS dropped below Atlanta's by a razor thin margin. First thought was jubilation. Then came the hoping for a Green Bay victory, check. I concluded Houston loses to Tennessee next week, case closed, the pick is ours.

Because of this razor thin margin we need to hold onto this lead I examined Houston's and Atlanta's schedules to find the games with the most importance to us

With all the games being divisional week 17, most games cancel each other out as a 1-1 result for both teams so the only games that really matter are the 2 games scheduled in your conference against teams who finished in the same spot as you the previous season.

For Atlanta, that is Dallas and Seattle.

For Houston, its KC and New England.

Week 17
KC vs LAC (KC)
NE vs NYJ (NYJ)
SEA vs SF (SEA)
DAL vs NYG (NYG)

So if New England loses tonight, I can conclude we have enough cushion to where just two of those four week 17 outcomes have to fall in our favor to retain what's currently ours.......pick 3.

You'd expect Seattle is going to beat San Fran with the No.1 seed still in grasps, given Green Bay is traveling to Chicago against a win-and-they're-in Chicago team. Not a gimme.

You'd expect Belichek won't lose to that Jets team to end the season so getting that loss tonight might be critical.

Giants are our best hope along with KC resting their starters.

I tried to find the actual SOS % this morning, not having much luck. Can anyone provide them?

Edit:

Thanks @Nublar7 for the update:


Nublar7 said:
I did the math and compared the remaining schedules for the Texans and Falcons. The current SOS (Pre Bills vs Patriots) is:

Texans: 129.5-109.5, SOS: 0.5418
Falcons: 132-108, SOS: 0.5500

If both teams lose next week and every game goes for the Falcons to lower their SOS (factoring in that some of those games impact the Texans too and giving the worst possible outcome for all the non-related games to Houston), it is still mathematically possible the Falcons could move back to #3, and it would only be a half game. (Falcons would end 140-116 and the Texans would end 140.5-115.5) That would be an SOS of 0.5469 to 0.5418

However if just one game goes against the Falcons, the Texans(Dolphins) would clinch the 3rd pick with a loss to Tennessee next week. Basically if the Patriots lose to the Bills tonight, there is no mathematical path for the Falcons to #3 based on SOS alone.
Click to expand...
 
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Yes, and that would make our 2nd pick 35 rather than 36 due to the rotation of teams with the same record by round.
 
The Ghost said:
Like many I thought when Atlanta lost that game, we'd end up at 4th. Fine, still a good day. Then came the news that Houston's SOS dropped below Atlanta's by a razor thin margin. First thought was jubilation. Then came the hoping for a Green Bay victory, check. I concluded Houston loses to Tennessee next week, case closed, the pick is ours.

Because of this razor thin margin we need to hold onto this lead I examined Houston's and Atlanta's schedules to find the games with the most importance to us.

With all the games being divisional week 17, most games cancel each other out as a 1-1 result for both teams so the only games that really matter are the 2 games scheduled in your conference against teams who finished in the same spot as you the previous season.

For Atlanta, that is Dallas and Seattle.

For Houston, its KC and New England.

Week 17
KC vs LAC (KC)
NE vs NYJ (NYJ)
SEA vs SF (SEA)
DAL vs NYG (NYG)

So if New England loses tonight, I can conclude we have enough cushion to where just two of those four week 17 outcomes have to fall in our favor to retain what's currently ours.......pick 3.

You'd expect Seattle is going to beat San Fran with the No.1 seed still in grasps, given Green Bay is traveling to Chicago against a win-and-they're-in Chicago team. Not a gimme.

You'd expect Belichek won't lose to that Jets team to end the season so getting that loss tonight might be critical.

Giants are our best hope along with KC resting their starters.

I tried to find the actual SOS % this morning, not having much luck. Can anyone provide them?
Click to expand...
Houston is locked at 3 with a loss. SOS diff is .008 right now. NE win moves it to .006. Next week games count about .015 So if all games go in ATL favor. It would the the SOS. Next tiebreaker is W/L in common opponents. They are tied at 1-4 each. Then it is SOV. Teams ATL beat are 23-37 at the moment while Houston teams are 13-46. ATL has beaten better teams, Houston picks 3.
 
A Punter will be drafted with pick #3 uh oh I forgot Tannenclown isn't in charge anymore. We actually have a shot of landing a decent player. Here's to hoping it's a playmaker for Tua that can get "Alabama Open".
 
dan the fin said:
Houston is locked at 3 with a loss. SOS diff is .008 right now. NE win moves it to .006. Next week games count about .015 So if all games go in ATL favor. It would the the SOS. Next tiebreaker is W/L in common opponents. They are tied at 1-4 each. Then it is SOV. Teams ATL beat are 23-37 at the moment while Houston teams are 13-46. ATL has beaten better teams, Houston picks 3.
Click to expand...
Holy cow that’s insane analysis. Thanks!
 
dan the fin said:
Houston is locked at 3 with a loss. SOS diff is .008 right now. NE win moves it to .006. Next week games count about .015 So if all games go in ATL favor. It would the the SOS. Next tiebreaker is W/L in common opponents. They are tied at 1-4 each. Then it is SOV. Teams ATL beat are 23-37 at the moment while Houston teams are 13-46. ATL has beaten better teams, Houston picks 3.
Click to expand...

You're my new best friend. I have like 13 best friends, your now in the club.
 
Thanks for the work. If Miami ends up at #3 imagine the possibilities?

First, look at all the teams that need a quarterback. Carolina and Denver picking in the top 10. San Francisco, New England, maybe Dallas just outside of the top 10. The Vikings maybe and I'm sure a few others.

My gut says the NY Jets take Wilson at #2. The old axion still holds. If you don't have a franchise quarterback, you keep drafting until you get one.

The question then becomes will teams trade up to #3 for Fields? Admittedly, I haven't seen much of him or paid a lot of attention to the quarterback position this season, but he hasn't looked like a top 10 pick in the limited amount of games I've seen. But we know teams will give a kings ransom when it comes to quarterbacks, even if they just have traits (think Mitch Trubisky).

A trade would seem like the Dolphins best option.
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Thanks for the work. If Miami ends up at #3 imagine the possibilities?

First, look at all the teams that need a quarterback. Carolina and Denver picking in the top 10. San Francisco, New England, maybe Dallas just outside of the top 10. The Vikings maybe and I'm sure a few others.

My gut says the NY Jets take Wilson at #2. The old axion still holds. If you don't have a franchise quarterback, you keep drafting until you get one.

The question then becomes will teams trade up to #3 for Fields? Admittedly, I haven't seen much of him or paid a lot of attention to the quarterback position this season, but he hasn't looked like a top 10 pick in the limited amount of games I've seen. But we know teams will give a kings ransom when it comes to quarterbacks, even if they just have traits (think Mitch Trubisky).

A trade would seem like the Dolphins best option.
Click to expand...

Given no one will know much until after FA, Miami could move down to #3>7 and still (maybe) get the guy they want. But, sooooo many variables
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Thanks for the work. If Miami ends up at #3 imagine the possibilities?

First, look at all the teams that need a quarterback. Carolina and Denver picking in the top 10. San Francisco, New England, maybe Dallas just outside of the top 10. The Vikings maybe and I'm sure a few others.

My gut says the NY Jets take Wilson at #2. The old axion still holds. If you don't have a franchise quarterback, you keep drafting until you get one.

The question then becomes will teams trade up to #3 for Fields? Admittedly, I haven't seen much of him or paid a lot of attention to the quarterback position this season, but he hasn't looked like a top 10 pick in the limited amount of games I've seen. But we know teams will give a kings ransom when it comes to quarterbacks, even if they just have traits (think Mitch Trubisky).

A trade would seem like the Dolphins best option.
Click to expand...
As Miami is considered out of the running for drafting a QB, this whole debate/discussion will be a hot topic all the way up to the draft. Will we trade, will we pick?
In theory, at three, Sewell, Chase, Smith, Waddle, Parsons all are still on the table. A trade down of four or five spots still nabs us one of them. If those guys are our next highly graded players.
What is the value of a trade down to 7 or 8 from 3?
 
dan the fin said:
Houston is locked at 3 with a loss. SOS diff is .008 right now. NE win moves it to .006. Next week games count about .015 So if all games go in ATL favor. It would the the SOS. Next tiebreaker is W/L in common opponents. They are tied at 1-4 each. Then it is SOV. Teams ATL beat are 23-37 at the moment while Houston teams are 13-46. ATL has beaten better teams, Houston picks 3.
Click to expand...
What are you talking about? There's no tiebreaker for SOS. If they both have the same SOS then it's a coin flip to determine who picks first...usually done at the scouting combine.

Only time W/L common opponents and all that other stuff comes into play is for the division or playoffs.
 
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