eclaycamp
17-0 > 18-1
Lots of folks call them "hidden gems," and that's not a bad description. I've always been interested in how teams spend their second day picks. I believe you find your starters in the first three rounds, while you improve your depth and look for surprises on Day 2. Good teams have a way of finding good players, regardless of draft position. To that end (and because I was bored), I researched the last 10 drafts, concentrating specifically on Pro Bowl players that were drafted in Round 4 or later. I understand that the Pro Bowl is essentially a beauty contest, but it was the easiest qualifier that I could find. Without further ado, here's the list:
1998
Lance Shulters (S)
Matt Birk (C)
Fred Beasley (FB)
Matt Hasselbeck (QB)
1999
Aaron Smith (DE)
Josh Bidwell (P)
Jerry Azumah (CB)
Rod Coleman (DT)
Desmond Clark (TE)
Donald Driver (WR)
2000
Shane Lechler (P)
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (DE)
Dante Hall (WR)
Marc Bulger (QB)
Neil Rackers (K)
Adalius Thomas (LB)
Tom Brady (QB)
Brian Jennings (LS)
2001
Rudi Johnson (RB)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR)
2002
Aaron Kampman (DE)
2003
Terrance McGee (CB)
Asante Samuel (CB)
Ryan Pontbriand (LS)
Dan Koppen (C)
Hanik Milligan (S)
Cato June (LB)
David Tyree (WR)
2004
Nathan Vasher (CB)
Jared Allen (DE)
Andy Lee (P)
2005
Marion Barber III (RB)
Jerome Mathis (WR)
Trent Cole (LB/DE)
Derek Anderson (QB)
2006
Antoine Bethea (CB)
2007
Nick Fok (K)
My thoughts? Well, I've got several ...
First of all, Day 2 is tough. Let's do the math. This works out to 3.7 Pro Bowlers taken on Day 2, per year. With 32 teams picking in 4 rounds, your mathematical chance of drafting a 4th round or better Pro Bowler is 3% or less. I'm not a math guy though, so someone may wish to check my figures.
Secondly, what jumps out at me immediately is that 2000 was a banner year, with 8 picks going to a Pro Bowl. Only 2003 is close to matching that output. I'm not a guru, so I have to wonder if this was a great year for talent, or if talent evaluation was just that poor that year.
Also, the Green Bay Packers were really on a tear from 1998 - 2002, hitting on late round gems Matt Hasselbeck, Donald Driver, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, and Aaron Kampman. That's four second-day Pro Bowlers in 5 years. Kind of makes me happy that Ron Wolf was checking out our last game of the season with the Tuna.
Special teamers abound across this list. From Punters, to Kickers, to Long Snappers, they're there. This just makes first day picks of special team players that much more laughable.
It doesn't really surprise me that there's only been 2 Pro Bowlers in the last 2 years. I've heard it said across the board, that many guys are drafted on day 2 as "projects." These guyts obviously take extra time to develop. The fact that there's only been 2 guys make the Pro Bowl serves to back up that hypothesis.
Lastly, what stands out to me most, is that with 37 Pro Bowlers, one could logically expect one per team, based on the fact that there's 32 teams in the league. However, Miami has whiffed in this regard, as not one player drafted in Round 4 or later has gone to the Pro Bowl as a Fin. You could point out that we're in the position we're in today due to terrible drafting across the board - and you'd be right. This data just serves to further back up that point. Not only are we missing in the early rounds, but we're failing in the later rounds too.
Here's hoping that Parcells/Ireland have more success in this year's draft. In recent years they've found both Marion Barber III and (while not as impressive) Nick Folk, so the future does look bright. I'm hoping that this year the Fins can turn up some hidden gems of their own.
1998
Lance Shulters (S)
Matt Birk (C)
Fred Beasley (FB)
Matt Hasselbeck (QB)
1999
Aaron Smith (DE)
Josh Bidwell (P)
Jerry Azumah (CB)
Rod Coleman (DT)
Desmond Clark (TE)
Donald Driver (WR)
2000
Shane Lechler (P)
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (DE)
Dante Hall (WR)
Marc Bulger (QB)
Neil Rackers (K)
Adalius Thomas (LB)
Tom Brady (QB)
Brian Jennings (LS)
2001
Rudi Johnson (RB)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR)
2002
Aaron Kampman (DE)
2003
Terrance McGee (CB)
Asante Samuel (CB)
Ryan Pontbriand (LS)
Dan Koppen (C)
Hanik Milligan (S)
Cato June (LB)
David Tyree (WR)
2004
Nathan Vasher (CB)
Jared Allen (DE)
Andy Lee (P)
2005
Marion Barber III (RB)
Jerome Mathis (WR)
Trent Cole (LB/DE)
Derek Anderson (QB)
2006
Antoine Bethea (CB)
2007
Nick Fok (K)
My thoughts? Well, I've got several ...
First of all, Day 2 is tough. Let's do the math. This works out to 3.7 Pro Bowlers taken on Day 2, per year. With 32 teams picking in 4 rounds, your mathematical chance of drafting a 4th round or better Pro Bowler is 3% or less. I'm not a math guy though, so someone may wish to check my figures.
Secondly, what jumps out at me immediately is that 2000 was a banner year, with 8 picks going to a Pro Bowl. Only 2003 is close to matching that output. I'm not a guru, so I have to wonder if this was a great year for talent, or if talent evaluation was just that poor that year.
Also, the Green Bay Packers were really on a tear from 1998 - 2002, hitting on late round gems Matt Hasselbeck, Donald Driver, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, and Aaron Kampman. That's four second-day Pro Bowlers in 5 years. Kind of makes me happy that Ron Wolf was checking out our last game of the season with the Tuna.
Special teamers abound across this list. From Punters, to Kickers, to Long Snappers, they're there. This just makes first day picks of special team players that much more laughable.
It doesn't really surprise me that there's only been 2 Pro Bowlers in the last 2 years. I've heard it said across the board, that many guys are drafted on day 2 as "projects." These guyts obviously take extra time to develop. The fact that there's only been 2 guys make the Pro Bowl serves to back up that hypothesis.
Lastly, what stands out to me most, is that with 37 Pro Bowlers, one could logically expect one per team, based on the fact that there's 32 teams in the league. However, Miami has whiffed in this regard, as not one player drafted in Round 4 or later has gone to the Pro Bowl as a Fin. You could point out that we're in the position we're in today due to terrible drafting across the board - and you'd be right. This data just serves to further back up that point. Not only are we missing in the early rounds, but we're failing in the later rounds too.
Here's hoping that Parcells/Ireland have more success in this year's draft. In recent years they've found both Marion Barber III and (while not as impressive) Nick Folk, so the future does look bright. I'm hoping that this year the Fins can turn up some hidden gems of their own.
But yes, I agree Colston is a great player and an even better find for New Orleans in Round 7.