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In honor of our dearly departed trolling brethren, I've decided that we need a silly stats thread at the halfway point of the 2014 season. And because there is absolutely nothing to stop me from posting yet one more pointless waste of a thread, here we go.
Quarterback Play and Pass Offense
The first thing I want to talk about is the play of Ryan Tannehill and -- more importantly -- our overall pass offense. I've mentioned before that one statistic I find interesting is Touchdown-Interception Rate Differential. TID is calculated as follows: (Touchdowns Thrown / Passes Attempted) - (Interceptions Thrown / Passes Attempted). In other words, this number represents the difference between how often the quarterback throws touchdowns and how often he throws interceptions. It's actually a really stupidly simple statistic.
If you look at all seasons played over the past ten years, there is a fairly strong correlation between an offense's Yards per Pass (YPA) and the number of games that team wins that season. Yet the correlation between winning and TID is actually stronger (by a statistically significant margin), so that's why I'm going to use it. If you don't like it, kiss my ass.
As of this particular moment, the Miami Dolphins' pass offense, when Ryan Tannehill is in the game (i.e. not during the 4th quarter of a total blowout) has a very respectable TID of 2.9. That is, when Ryan Tannehill drops back to throw the football, the result is a touchdown 5.0% of the time, and an interception 2.1% of the time.
That is the best mark the team has put up in the past ten years. In fact, it is the best the team has managed since 1987. So put to rest the idiotic Tannehenne portmanteaus, folks. Chad Henne has never had a TID above 0 in his entire career. He has never played more than ten games and had a TID above -0.4. Chad Henne ****ing blows.
How about compared to the rest of the NFL? Well, I decided to chart this number across all quarterback seasons from 2004 to 2013. I chose 2004 as my start date, because that was the year that the NFL changed the downfield contact rules to benefit offenses. Out of 320 quarterback seasons I charted during that period, a 2.9 TID would be tied for 58th overall -- that is, it's consistent with about what the 6th best quarterback in the league would do during any given year. That's pretty good.
Between 2004 and 2013, six quarterbacks posted a TID of exactly 2.9. Their offenses had an average scoring rank of 8.3 out of 32. Their teams won 11 games on average. The most recent quarterback in that grouping is none other than our local favorite M.att Ryan, who did it in 2012. The Falcons won 13 games that year.
So there you have it. When you take the single aspect of the pass offense that most closely correlates with winning football games in the NFL, the Miami Dolphins are good enough to be a playoff football team. Considering how well we run the ball and how good our defense is, I would say that's pretty nice to know.
The Simple Rating System and DVOA
The Simple Rating System (SRS) is a sort of mathematical power ranking method that considers a team's average margin of victory, strength of schedule, and overall offensive/defensive metrics. DVOA is a another advanced analytic that is a bit more complicated, but also attempts to evaluate a team 'by the numbers' by comparing its performance against its schedule.
After 8 games, the Miami Dolphins have a SRS rating of 8.4. That is the highest number the Miami Dolphins have managed since 1984. I repeat, that is the best that the Miami Dolphins have shown in SRS since 1984. Our SRS the last time we made the playoffs was an uninspiring -0.5, as we just kept squeaking by cupcakes in 2008.
Our current SRS of 8.4, if it holds, will be the fifth best mark in franchise history. The only years that it was higher were 1984, 1975, 1973, and 1972. We made the Super Bowl in three of those season.
The Dolphins' total DVOA is currently 19.6%, good for third best in the NFL. That's the best mark since 2002. You may recall that we had a pretty good football team that year, and then Ray Lucas started six games. A DVOA in that range is typically good enough for 6th best in the league or so in any given year.
So in honor of 'objective analysis,' here's mine for the week: we are a dang good football team! It's a fact!
Ryan Tannehill is Not a Sack Taker
Finally, this one's a personal pet peeve of mine. The narrative that Ryan Tannehill has awful pocket presence, holds the ball too long, and is a 'sack taker' needs to be put to rest. Ryan Tannehill's overall sack rate in his three years: 6.7%, 9.0%, 5.7%. That's a pretty big jump and decline into and out of 2013. Similar to what Philip Rivers experienced in 2012 when he had a garbage offensive line and a UDFA left tackle protecting his blindside.
Ryan Tannehill's current sack rate in 2014 of 5.7% is actually pretty decent. That's the 13th best number in the league, and about consistent with the career averages of players like M.att Ryan and Philip Rivers. Are those guys sack takers?
We Are a Playoff Team
That's it. That's my conclusion from these silly stats. The 2014 Miami Dolphins are playing very good football and have the appearance of a playoff team. We have a strong running game, an excellent defense, an efficient passing attack, and most importantly, our backup quarterback doesn't wear huggies.
Bump this thread in January and change my screen name to Nastrdamus, baby.
Quarterback Play and Pass Offense
The first thing I want to talk about is the play of Ryan Tannehill and -- more importantly -- our overall pass offense. I've mentioned before that one statistic I find interesting is Touchdown-Interception Rate Differential. TID is calculated as follows: (Touchdowns Thrown / Passes Attempted) - (Interceptions Thrown / Passes Attempted). In other words, this number represents the difference between how often the quarterback throws touchdowns and how often he throws interceptions. It's actually a really stupidly simple statistic.
If you look at all seasons played over the past ten years, there is a fairly strong correlation between an offense's Yards per Pass (YPA) and the number of games that team wins that season. Yet the correlation between winning and TID is actually stronger (by a statistically significant margin), so that's why I'm going to use it. If you don't like it, kiss my ass.
As of this particular moment, the Miami Dolphins' pass offense, when Ryan Tannehill is in the game (i.e. not during the 4th quarter of a total blowout) has a very respectable TID of 2.9. That is, when Ryan Tannehill drops back to throw the football, the result is a touchdown 5.0% of the time, and an interception 2.1% of the time.
That is the best mark the team has put up in the past ten years. In fact, it is the best the team has managed since 1987. So put to rest the idiotic Tannehenne portmanteaus, folks. Chad Henne has never had a TID above 0 in his entire career. He has never played more than ten games and had a TID above -0.4. Chad Henne ****ing blows.
How about compared to the rest of the NFL? Well, I decided to chart this number across all quarterback seasons from 2004 to 2013. I chose 2004 as my start date, because that was the year that the NFL changed the downfield contact rules to benefit offenses. Out of 320 quarterback seasons I charted during that period, a 2.9 TID would be tied for 58th overall -- that is, it's consistent with about what the 6th best quarterback in the league would do during any given year. That's pretty good.
Between 2004 and 2013, six quarterbacks posted a TID of exactly 2.9. Their offenses had an average scoring rank of 8.3 out of 32. Their teams won 11 games on average. The most recent quarterback in that grouping is none other than our local favorite M.att Ryan, who did it in 2012. The Falcons won 13 games that year.
So there you have it. When you take the single aspect of the pass offense that most closely correlates with winning football games in the NFL, the Miami Dolphins are good enough to be a playoff football team. Considering how well we run the ball and how good our defense is, I would say that's pretty nice to know.
The Simple Rating System and DVOA
The Simple Rating System (SRS) is a sort of mathematical power ranking method that considers a team's average margin of victory, strength of schedule, and overall offensive/defensive metrics. DVOA is a another advanced analytic that is a bit more complicated, but also attempts to evaluate a team 'by the numbers' by comparing its performance against its schedule.
After 8 games, the Miami Dolphins have a SRS rating of 8.4. That is the highest number the Miami Dolphins have managed since 1984. I repeat, that is the best that the Miami Dolphins have shown in SRS since 1984. Our SRS the last time we made the playoffs was an uninspiring -0.5, as we just kept squeaking by cupcakes in 2008.
Our current SRS of 8.4, if it holds, will be the fifth best mark in franchise history. The only years that it was higher were 1984, 1975, 1973, and 1972. We made the Super Bowl in three of those season.
The Dolphins' total DVOA is currently 19.6%, good for third best in the NFL. That's the best mark since 2002. You may recall that we had a pretty good football team that year, and then Ray Lucas started six games. A DVOA in that range is typically good enough for 6th best in the league or so in any given year.
So in honor of 'objective analysis,' here's mine for the week: we are a dang good football team! It's a fact!
Ryan Tannehill is Not a Sack Taker
Finally, this one's a personal pet peeve of mine. The narrative that Ryan Tannehill has awful pocket presence, holds the ball too long, and is a 'sack taker' needs to be put to rest. Ryan Tannehill's overall sack rate in his three years: 6.7%, 9.0%, 5.7%. That's a pretty big jump and decline into and out of 2013. Similar to what Philip Rivers experienced in 2012 when he had a garbage offensive line and a UDFA left tackle protecting his blindside.
Ryan Tannehill's current sack rate in 2014 of 5.7% is actually pretty decent. That's the 13th best number in the league, and about consistent with the career averages of players like M.att Ryan and Philip Rivers. Are those guys sack takers?
We Are a Playoff Team
That's it. That's my conclusion from these silly stats. The 2014 Miami Dolphins are playing very good football and have the appearance of a playoff team. We have a strong running game, an excellent defense, an efficient passing attack, and most importantly, our backup quarterback doesn't wear huggies.
Bump this thread in January and change my screen name to Nastrdamus, baby.
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