SIMPLIFIED playoff outlook, week 16 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

SIMPLIFIED playoff outlook, week 16

NYCphan

NYCphan

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Miami’s playoff outlook is discussed at length in other threads, but I think it’s worth summarizing in less detail.

As we all know, 11-5 wins the division for Miami. This makes a wildcard both unnecessary and impossible at 11-5. (Also, Miami cannot get a first-round bye this year, no matter what happens.)

Making the playoffs at 9-7 is already impossible mathematically, as either a division winner or wildcard.

That leaves 10-6 as the only scenario to consider. Obviously, this involves Miami losing once (and only once). So here’s what has to happen for Miami to make the playoffs at 10-6. (Note that these do not reflect the possibility of tie games.)

If the loss is to Kansas City

Division title: New England loses once (Cardinals or Bills).

Wildcard: Baltimore loses to both the Cowboys and Jaguars. (Pats win the division; Jets are out.)

If the loss is to New York

Division title: Impossible.

Wildcard: Baltimore loses its final two, and New England loses to Buffalo. (Jets win the division; Pats are out.)

This weekend

Miami can neither clinch a playoff spot, nor be eliminated, no matter what happens. (The same is true for the Jets.)

If Baltimore beats Dallas, Miami is eliminated from wildcard contention.

The Jets-Seahawks game has no direct bearing on Miami’s playoff chances.

Wins by the Fins and Jets would eliminate New England from the division race (unless the Jets-Fins game ends tied next week).

A Pats loss would eliminate them from the division race (barring a Jets-Fins tie). Combined with a Baltimore win, a Pats loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely.
 
Excellent and correct!!!! The Phins need to just focus on winning their last two as we have control over this. We cannot control what the Ravens do, but the Cowboys are always under a lot of pressure to win and they know if they lose to the Ravens they have little shot of making the playoffs. The Jaguars play in Baltimore to end the season and unfortunately they look like crap, so I think we just need to focus on beating the Chefs and Jests.
 
NYCphan said:
Miami’s playoff outlook is discussed at length in other threads, but I think it’s worth summarizing in less detail.

As we all know, 11-5 wins the division for Miami. This makes a wildcard both unnecessary and impossible at 11-5. (Also, Miami cannot get a first-round bye this year, no matter what happens.)

Making the playoffs at 9-7 is already impossible mathematically, as either a division winner or wildcard.

That leaves 10-6 as the only scenario to consider. Obviously, this involves Miami losing once (and only once). So here’s what has to happen for Miami to make the playoffs at 10-6. (Note that these do not reflect the possibility of tie games.)

If the loss is to Kansas City

Division title: New England loses once (Cardinals or Bills).

Wildcard: Baltimore loses to both the Cowboys and Jaguars. (Pats win the division; Jets are out.)

If the loss is to New York

Division title: Impossible.

Wildcard: Baltimore loses its final two, and New England loses to Buffalo. (Jets win the division; Pats are out.)

This weekend

Miami can neither clinch a playoff spot, nor be eliminated, no matter what happens. (The same is true for the Jets.)

If Baltimore beats Dallas, Miami is eliminated from wildcard contention.

The Jets-Seahawks game has no direct bearing on Miami’s playoff chances.

Wins by the Fins and Jets would eliminate New England from the division race (unless the Jets-Fins game ends tied next week).

A Pats loss would eliminate them from the division race (barring a Jets-Fins tie). Combined with a Baltimore win, a Pats loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely.
Click to expand...


Nice work as usual. :up:
 
Thanks bro,
I'm just scared of one scenario but I don't know if I'm right. Let's say we finished tied with NE at 10-6 (NE loose to ARI but beat Buff) and the Jets loose out (9-7). We split against NE, 2 lost in the division. same common games record, 5 lost in the conf. Then, they go to the strenght of schedule and I think NE gets it. Am I correct ???
 
PAT13 said:
Let's say we finished tied with NE at 10-6 (NE loose to ARI but beat Buff) and the Jets loose out (9-7). We split against NE, 2 lost in the division. same common games record, 5 lost in the conf. Then, they go to the strenght of schedule and I think NE gets it. Am I correct ???
Click to expand...

It goes to 'strength of victory' before 'strength of schedule.'

Since the list of teams that the Fins and Pats will have beaten would be identical except for the Chiefs (for New England) and Chargers (for Miami), and since the Chargers are now assured a better final record than the Chiefs, the Dolphins would have a higher strength of victory and win that tiebreak over the Pats.

Hope that makes sense.
 
NYCphan said:
It goes to 'strength of victory' before 'strength of schedule.'

Since the list of teams that the Fins and Pats will have beaten would be identical except for the Chiefs (for New England) and Chargers (for Miami), and since the Chargers are now assured a better final record than the Chiefs, the Dolphins would have a higher strength of victory and win that tiebreak over the Pats.

Hope that makes sense.
Click to expand...

True, I misread the tiebrakers. It's kind of a relief cause I would have hate that scenario to happened.
Thanks and let's hope for 2 W!!!:up:
 
NYCphan said:
Miami’s playoff outlook is discussed at length in other threads, but I think it’s worth summarizing in less detail.

As we all know, 11-5 wins the division for Miami. This makes a wildcard both unnecessary and impossible at 11-5. (Also, Miami cannot get a first-round bye this year, no matter what happens.)

Making the playoffs at 9-7 is already impossible mathematically, as either a division winner or wildcard.

That leaves 10-6 as the only scenario to consider. Obviously, this involves Miami losing once (and only once). So here’s what has to happen for Miami to make the playoffs at 10-6. (Note that these do not reflect the possibility of tie games.)

If the loss is to Kansas City

Division title: New England loses once (Cardinals or Bills).

Wildcard: Baltimore loses to both the Cowboys and Jaguars. (Pats win the division; Jets are out.)

If the loss is to New York

Division title: Impossible.

Wildcard: Baltimore loses its final two, and New England loses to Buffalo. (Jets win the division; Pats are out.)

This weekend

Miami can neither clinch a playoff spot, nor be eliminated, no matter what happens. (The same is true for the Jets.)

If Baltimore beats Dallas, Miami is eliminated from wildcard contention.

The Jets-Seahawks game has no direct bearing on Miami’s playoff chances.

Wins by the Fins and Jets would eliminate New England from the division race (unless the Jets-Fins game ends tied next week).

A Pats loss would eliminate them from the division race (barring a Jets-Fins tie). Combined with a Baltimore win, a Pats loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely.
Click to expand...

Youre the one dude that I have noticed posting about this stuff that is on the money everytime. Its really not difficult to understand, and I dont get why so many people get confused about it.

Nevertheless, I wish some people wouldnt post on the matter and just refer to your posts. I think you would do a nice job as the FH official playoff scenerio breakdown guy. Hopefully, there would be work for you every season:up:.
 
Dolphin Playoff Picture (as of Week 15 heading into Week 16)

Two down, two to go. Incredible story, these Dolphins....winners again.

The Miami Dolphins continued successfully on their quest for the playoffs by outlasting the San Francisco 49ers, 14-9. The Pittsburgh Steelers also chipped in a tad to help the Dolphins in the wild-card race by downing the Baltimore Ravens, 13-9.

DIVISION
Within the division, the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots are still in the hunt for the divisional title, though only the Dolphins and Jets control their destiny; if the Dolphins win their last two games, they will be the AFC East Champions. The Dolphins would eliminate the Jets via superior overall record; nothing the Pats can do will change this (not even winning out) as the Dolphins would eliminate the Pats via superior conference record.

The Dolphins can also win the division title if the Dolphins, Jets, and Pats finish tied with 10-6 (or 10-5-1) records, and the Dolphins defeat the Jets. The Dolphins would win the division based on their common games tiebreaker over the Jets and their strength of victory tiebreaker advantage over the Pats.

Aside from winning out, the Jets can win the division if the Dolphins, Jets, and Pats finish tied with 10-6 (or 10-5-1) records and the Jets defeat the Dolphins. The Jets would eliminate the Dolphins on the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Pats on superior divisional record.

The only way the Patriots can win the division is if they win out and the Dolphins and Jets both lose or tie at least one game. If the Dolphins and Jets win next week, the Pats would be all but mathematically eliminated from the divisional race (the Pats would need the Dolphins and Jets to tie their final game, and they would need to defeat the Cardinals at home and the Bills on the road).

If the Miami Dolphins win the AFC East, they would host a first round playoff game the weekend of January 3-4 as the third seed by virtue of their head-to-head advantage over the 8-6 Denver Broncos (guaranteed yesterday when Denver lost to the Carolina Panthers) or the San Diego Chargers (if the Broncos lose their last two).

WILD-CARD
The Dolphins are still a big long shot to earn a wild-card berth, though the odds improved slightly when Baltimore lost to the Steelers.

Even though the 9-5 Ravens lost, they would still qualify for a wild-card berth if the season ended today as they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins and a strength of victory tiebreaker over the Patriots.

The Colts (10-4) avoided infamy (or preserved it!) by defeating the Lions.

Assuming the Colts defeat the Jaguars this Thursday, there are two remaining scenarios whereby a 10-6 Dolphins team could win a wild-card berth:

a) If the Dolphins defeat the Chiefs but lose to the Jets, the Ravens would have to lose their final two games (or have a loss and a tie) and the Patriots would have to lose their final game at Buffalo, or

b) If the Dolphins lose to the Chiefs but defeat the Jets, the Ravens would have to lose their final two games (or have a loss and a tie) and the Patriots would have to win their final two games, or have a win and a tie; in this event, the Pats would be AFC East champions and the Dolphins would eliminate the Jets via the Common Games tiebreaker.

The Ravens and Colts can eliminate the Dolphins from wild-card contention by winning this week (@ DAL and @JAX, respectively). The Colts will clinch the first wild-card berth with a win over the Jaguars; this would leave only the Ravens and Pats in the running for the final wild-card berth (assuming the Ravens defeat the Cowboys at Texas Stadium, and the Pats defeat the Cardinals at Gillette).

The only way an 11-5 Patriots team could qualify for the wild-card in this event would be for the Ravens to lose or tie their final game at Jacksonville. If the Ravens and Pats finished tied at the end of the season, the Ravens would earn the final wild-card berth (strength of victory tiebreaker).

THIS WEEK (key games for the Dolphins)
Dolphins at Chiefs
Jets at Seahawks
Cardinals at Patriots
Ravens at Cowboys
 
Good write, but all im hoping for is that we win our next 2
 
WVdolphan said:
Youre the one dude that I have noticed posting about this stuff that is on the money everytime. Its really not difficult to understand, and I dont get why so many people get confused about it.

Nevertheless, I wish some people wouldnt post on the matter and just refer to your posts. I think you would do a nice job as the FH official playoff scenerio breakdown guy. Hopefully, there would be work for you every season:up:.
Click to expand...

Thanks. There are others who post and get it right too, and it's always good to have people who understand it double-check the work, so we can get it right for everyone. Even though this stuff had been posted over the past day, it was showing up in different places and I thought i simple breakdown without all the detail would be useful.

Years ago I was the semi-official playoff calculator here, back when Miami was contending every season. Hasn't been much need for that in a while. Plus there are more playoff resources online now (although the Yahoo gizmo isn't 100% accurate when it gets to weird tiebreaks like strength of victory).

The most fun was the year that the Colts were still unbeaten late in the season, and they finally lost to San Diego. Everyone was rooting for the Chargers, but I figured out that a Chargers win would actually eliminate Miami. The morning of the game, I e-mailed it to a Herald writer, who forwarded it to the NFL, which replied an hour later that yes, it was correct. As you might imagine, posting it here resulted in a bunch of people refusing to accept that Miami was done, because ESPN hadn't said so. Explaining that the NFL had verified it didn't convince, until it showed up in the media a day later and became "official."
 
NYCphan said:
Miami’s playoff outlook is discussed at length in other threads, but I think it’s worth summarizing in less detail.

As we all know, 11-5 wins the division for Miami. This makes a wildcard both unnecessary and impossible at 11-5. (Also, Miami cannot get a first-round bye this year, no matter what happens.)

Making the playoffs at 9-7 is already impossible mathematically, as either a division winner or wildcard.

That leaves 10-6 as the only scenario to consider. Obviously, this involves Miami losing once (and only once). So here’s what has to happen for Miami to make the playoffs at 10-6. (Note that these do not reflect the possibility of tie games.)

If the loss is to Kansas City

Division title: New England loses once (Cardinals or Bills).

Wildcard: Baltimore loses to both the Cowboys and Jaguars. (Pats win the division; Jets are out.)

If the loss is to New York

Division title: Impossible.

Wildcard: Baltimore loses its final two, and New England loses to Buffalo. (Jets win the division; Pats are out.)

This weekend

Miami can neither clinch a playoff spot, nor be eliminated, no matter what happens. (The same is true for the Jets.)

If Baltimore beats Dallas, Miami is eliminated from wildcard contention.

The Jets-Seahawks game has no direct bearing on Miami’s playoff chances.

Wins by the Fins and Jets would eliminate New England from the division race (unless the Jets-Fins game ends tied next week).

A Pats loss would eliminate them from the division race (barring a Jets-Fins tie). Combined with a Baltimore win, a Pats loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely.
Click to expand...

Great post and that is the best I seen in regards our chances. It is an easier task for miami to beat the chiefs and beat a struggling Jets team that could barely beat buffalo and was manhandled by the 49rs. Those are two teams that we beat without any major struggles(except the gut wrecking final 1 min against 49rs).

If the Fins get beat by the chiefs then they are going to have to hope that the Ravens lose both of their games.


Here is how the playoffs can look if we get in.


Titans (vs either denver or colts)



Steelers (if we win against ravens then we face steelers)



Miami vs Ravens


Denver Colts


Wildcard: Baltimore and Colts
 
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