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Slimm's 2018 Defensive Ends (Underclassman)

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1. Josh Sweat / Florida St. / 6'5", 251 [#16 overall]

2. Sam Hubbard / Ohio St. / 6'5", 270 [#17 overall]

3. Dorance Armstrong / Kansas / 6'4", 257 [#57 overall]

4. Arden Key / LSU / 6'5", 238 [#85 overall]

5. Hercules Mata'afa / Washington St. / 6'2", 254 [#238 overall]

6. Olasunkanmi Adeniyi / Toledo / 6'1", 248 [#251 overall]
 
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To me there's a bit of a gap between Jaylen Ferguson/Jabari Zuniga, to Porter Gustin et al.

Clelin Ferrell looked absolutely amazing in the playoffs. I had been disappointed in him with a few games earlier in the season, as he basically vaulted Antonio Garcie into the 3rd round, but I just have to keep reminding myself this was the guy's first year playing. He and Bradley Chubb, woof.

The Arden Key temporarily quitting football thing, real hard to know how to take that. That's not the type of hiccup you usually see in a guy who is about to embark on a pro bowl or hall of fame level professional career.
 
ckparrothead said:
To me there's a bit of a gap between Jaylen Ferguson/Jabari Zuniga, to Porter Gustin et al.

Clelin Ferrell looked absolutely amazing in the playoffs. I had been disappointed in him with a few games earlier in the season, as he basically vaulted Antonio Garcie into the 3rd round, but I just have to keep reminding myself this was the guy's first year playing. He and Bradley Chubb, woof.

The Arden Key temporarily quitting football thing, real hard to know how to take that. That's not the type of hiccup you usually see in a guy who is about to embark on a pro bowl or hall of fame level professional career.
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Agreed on all.
 
Dorance Armstrong Jr is NICE!! I saw that David Beaty, who recruited Garrett, said he's "just like Myles" (or something to that extent). I don't think they're super similar, other than them both appearing to be freak athletes (we knew/know Garrett is). Garrett's athleticism, though, is more about explosive power, burst, and strength. Armstrong runs the arch better, and I think he'll do really well in the agility drills. Different strengths, and Garrett is not a fair comparison, but Armstrong Jr looks like the goods.
 
I don't know about Zuniga being leaps and bounds better than Jefferson, especially long term. Zuniga really came into his own last season in terms of consistent pass rush but has a ways to go and a frame than may not facilitate much more weight gain. Good weight at least. Jefferson displays better technique (he was a 5 star so no surprise there) and has a frame that will allow him to gain another 15-20 lbs. Then he can be more effective being lined up on the inside ... with some inside moves in the arsenal already. Already has the leverage advantage there at 6'1". He doesn't have the bend to run the arc consistently but core strength and versatility will always be on his side. Zuniga may have the better season next year but I see Jefferson as an odds on favorite for a better career ... counting playing on Sundays.

I like having to go back and 'like' these lists every few days. Hoping that sticks at some point. If not I'll just keep doing it ... no one does lists this early that even halfway hold up.
 
Sweat is probably one of the top-5 athletes in college football at any position, but his tape is surprisingly boring. When he does the right thing, you see flashes. Can't remember if it was Michigan or UF where he timed his coil on a stunt and absolutely buckled an OG, but there aren't enough plays where he shows that he can win with his hands, and he never gets a good jump on the ball. I worry that his instincts will limit his ceiling in the NFL. Typically for someone that athletic at that position, I assume they'll put the pieces together. At bare minimum, Sweat has to increase the amount of plays he makes - even if unable to significantly increase his sacks and TFL. At least then, you could view him as a potential Danielle Hunter/Frank Clark. Both players were knocked - correctly, but too much - for their lack of pass-rush success, but both did not receive enough love for their overall activity level. Sweat's motor ran hot and cold in 2016.

If he can pick up where he left off, though, there's reason for optimism. I'm like you, though; I want to see him do it before I rank him ahead of some of these other guys, who combine physical talent with some level of accomplishment. I'll be watching him as closely as anyone in 2017.

It's looking like another strong group of pass rushers. With the exception of a somewhat boring 2016 class (Bosa and Ogbah notable exceptions), 2014-2018 has been a great stretch for pass-rush talent. I expect that's the result of more premium athletes being funneled to that position, but that's just a guess.

Forgot to mention that the rankings, as usual, are outstanding this year, Slimm.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Sweat is probably one of the top-5 athletes in college football at any position, but his tape is surprisingly boring. When he does the right thing, you see flashes. Can't remember if it was Michigan or UF where he timed his coil on a stunt and absolutely buckled an OG, but there aren't enough plays where he shows that he can win with his hands, and he never gets a good jump on the ball. I worry that his instincts will limit his ceiling in the NFL.
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Exactly right.

Another part of the issue is that he's not even sure where the ball is a lot of time.

He has time to put it all together in the next year or two, but his awareness of the ball needs to improve in order for his stats on the ball to improve.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Kid has some serious issues off the field though. LSU won't say what it is, but I think it could be an opioid addiction that he sought treatment for.
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Very sad if true. He's a really weird prospect all around - but gifted, of course.

Do you think Dorance Armstrong is talented enough to finish the season as the #1 DE?
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Very sad if true. He's a really weird prospect all around - but gifted, of course.

Do you think Dorance Armstrong is talented enough to finish the season as the #1 DE?
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Probably not on my board. I don't see him passing Clelin Ferrell in my ranking. Although he could and most likely will finish 2 or 3 here.

Secondly, I'd like to point out that it has nothing to do with talent. Talent isn't an issue with Armstrong in my opinion. I have a 1st round grade on him.

I just don't particularly like him as a full time DE in the NFL as much as some of the guys I rank ahead of him. I like him and project him playing more from a 2-point stance at the next level.

But make no mistake, I believe he has consistent double digit sack potential in the NFL. I don't necessarily see that in a lot of prospects. So many of them year after year get over hyped by the draft media, and NFL teams draft them too early over and over again.

I do think that if teams aren't comfortable with Arden Key and his confusing and ambiguous off field situation, teams could opt for Armstrong instead. Similar skillsets.

That's a situation where I could see Armstrong being #2, and potentially #1 here provided Ferrell decides not to declare.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Probably not on my board. I don't see him passing Clelin Ferrell in my ranking. Although he could and most likely will finish 2 or 3 here.

Secondly, I'd like to point out that it has nothing to do with talent. Talent isn't an issue with Armstrong in my opinion. I have a 1st round grade on him.

I just don't particularly like him as a full time DE in the NFL as much as some of the guys I rank ahead of him. I like him and project him playing more from a 2-point stance at the next level.

But make no mistake, I believe he has consistent double digit sack potential in the NFL. I don't necessarily see that in a lot of prospects. So many of them year after year get over hyped by the draft media, and NFL teams draft them too early over and over again.

I do think that if teams aren't comfortable with Arden Key and his confusing and ambiguous off field situation, teams could opt for Armstrong instead. Similar skillsets.

That's a situation where I could see Armstrong being #2, and potentially #1 here provided Ferrell decides not to declare.
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Appreciate the thoughts, Slimm. Great take. I saw Lance Zierlein compared him to a bigger Haason Reddick. I'm guessing that's just for the sake of catering to a broad audience (needing a more immediate comp), but I agree that his body type dictates a move to 3-4 WOLB or 4-3 SLB (preferably in an Under front). His combination of bend and burst keeps me coming back to him. I'd like to see him increase his overall activity, and I'm looking for him to improve his ability to control OT's in 2017. Armstrong and Landry are my favorites to be #1 and #2 at 3-4 OLB. Landry, right now, is better, but I think Armstrong may have a little more burst, and Armstrong showed more pass-rush ability as a Soph than Landry did at the same stage.

If Ferrell is able to pick up where he left off, it's hard to imagine him returning, but stranger things have happened.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Exactly right.

Another part of the issue is that he's not even sure where the ball is a lot of time.

He has time to put it all together in the next year or two, but his awareness of the ball needs to improve in order for his stats on the ball to improve.
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Thought Sweat picked up where he left off. Got in the backfield a lot, but awareness is still an issue. I do think he showed some improvement in this area, and as a result got in on more plays, but there were still too many plays where he achieved full extension without finding the ball. His ability to disengage on the pass rush looks to be getting better, though, and he even showed some bend around the edge - probably because of the improvement to his hands.

Work in progress, but the game gave me some hope that his play will begin to approximate his talent.
 
Ferrell has only 1 sack and 1 TFL this year but on tape he still looks like something out of Greek mythology.

Probably can't go wrong between he, Chubb, and Landry.
 
ckparrothead said:
Ferrell has only 1 sack and 1 TFL this year but on tape he still looks like something out of Greek mythology.

Probably can't go wrong between he, Chubb, and Landry.
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Was thinking the same thing, and his production has spiked the last few weeks. If he wants it, he'll be the top DE/pass rusher imo. But, Landry and Chubb have proven that they want it, so it's Ferrell's race to lose, but he's got to finish 2017 the way he did 2016.

If Sweat finishes the year at his current rate and tests like he did at the Nike Combine, it'll be enough for me to like him in the 1st. I'd view him like a Danielle Hunter or Frank Clark, because he's around the ball a lot more than for most of his time at FSU. Lot of ifs, and I'm not sure he's regained all that athleticism, but that's where I'm at with him.
 
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