SN: Dolphins-Can the Phins continue to be successful in '09?

[DKphin]

Jason Ferguson was drafted by a 1-15 Jets club in 1997.
And almost immediately, he got the wrong idea.
Bill Parcells directed sad-sack New York through a swift two-year turnabout, going 9-7 in Ferguson's rookie campaign and then 12-4 in '98 with a berth in the AFC championship game.
"I remember thinking that it was easy, and it was going to be like that every year," Ferguson said. "And we went 8-8 (in '99)."
That makes it easy for the 13th-year nose tackle, part of last year's Miami renaissance -- led, again, by Parcells -- to say the Dolphins' challenge for '09 is more significant than what the team faced last year.
"It's easier, what we did last year. If you hit someone first, it's always easier," Ferguson said. "Now, everyone's expecting that punch, and that's the hard part -- knocking them out when they see it coming."

If history is your guide, then water likely is to seek its level in '09. The Phins join 15 others this decade to post a bounce-back of at least six wins. Out of those 15 ...

Twelve dropped off in wins the year after bounce-back. Only one ascended in wins again.
Thirteen made the playoffs. Of those 13, only four returned to the postseason the year after.
Conversely, all four teams that did return to the playoffs went at least one round further, with two playing in the Super Bowl, and one winning it.

With that in mind, here are snapshots of what's up against the Dolphins:

Reasons to believe: Miami aggressively addressed its primary issue -- pass defense -- by adding defensive backs Gibril Wilson, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, and rushers Jason Taylor and Cameron Wake. Patrick Turner and Pat White, the club believes, are playmakers Miami needed offensively. And then there's the grounded approach that Tony Sparano has instilled.
"The team is focused, the 'year before' won't be a problem for us," Ferguson said. "The hard part is we have to worry about everyone staying healthy. ... As a vet, we really didn't do anything last year anyway. We won the division. Big deal."

Reasons to doubt: The Dolphins were 7-2 in games decided by less than a touchdown and had the league's 27th-ranked schedule in 2008. They have the NFL's toughest slate, by last season's record at least, in '09.
And remember, the emergence of the option-based Wildcat package was a result of Miami not being explosive or consistent enough offensively, so questions remain -- and likely will be answered in development of young players -- on that side of the ball.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/art...ns-can-these-successful-08-teams-win-again-09

 

[SoDakDolfan]

I believe!!

 

[SpaceMountain16]

What was our schedule ranked coming into last season? Because if it ended up being 27th ranked at seasons end and you're going to call that a reason we wont repeat our success, how can you use this years "toughest" schedule as a reason. Maybe by seasons end next year our schedule will be ranked 27th again. Maybe the tough teams we face have injuries and implode. You can't predict that. So what will the excuse be if Manning, Roethlisberger and Brady all go down for the season and we win those 4 games? Another easy schedule?

 

[phinfan33]

i believe we can and will be successful this year...i can see us repeating as AFCE Champs and again making the playoffs and advancing...

 

[ckparrothead]

Looking through the 15 teams they cited as turnaround stories, it looks to me like five of them improved the following year, five of them regressed moderately, and five of them just went totally in the tank. Or put differently, two of them had wild improvement (won the conference championship and/or super bowl), eight of them ranged from moderate improvement (winning more playoff games, etc) to moderate regression (hovering around .500), and five teams went back to the same or worse than they were before they had executed a turnaround (e.g. Bears were 5-11 in 2000, 13-3 in 2001, 4-12 in 2002 which was even worse than 2000).

Overall with three teams turning it around in 2008, the odds say one team will have a mild, moderate or crazy improvement even off the 2008 record, one team will have a moderate regression, and one team will fall completely off the map.

I think the Ravens could have a moderate regression just because they set the bar real high in 2008 with 13 wins (counting playoffs) and a Conference Championship Game appearance. They could win 10 games in 2009 and lose the first playoff game and it would be a successful season but still a moderate dropoff. I'm not a believer in the Matt Birk or L.J. Shelton acquisitions. I don't know that Joe Flacco will be ready to really do especially well in his second year, and losing Rex Ryan and defensive staff has to hurt the defense just a little bit I would think.

The Dolphins do have some things going against them most notably the schedule, and most people think they overreached themselves in 2008 with the Wildcat. I'm sure a lot of folks would have us pegged for the team that goes in the tank in 2009. That could be, but I have a hard time believing it. Having come away from 9 close games in 2008 with 7 victories is not a bad thing. It shows that the team knows how to come away with close victories and play in crunch time. The line should be improved, but will play better pass rushing teams. There has been no significant loss of talent, returning 18 of 22 starters (minus Satele, Holliday, Goodman and Hill). Two of those losses should turn out upgrades (Satele, Hill) while one should be a tossup (Holliday for Merling/Starks) and one should be a negative (Goodman for Green/Davis/Smith). Some of the starters stand to get a little better, few of them really stand to get worse.

The Falcons though, I'm not so sure. They've lost some defensive personnel and are replacing them with rookies. History does not tend to favor backs that get 394 carries in a season the way Michael Turner did a year ago. When Ricky got ridden like that in 2002 (384 carries) he had a pretty marked dropoff in 2003. Miami ran Ricky 392 times in 2003 and that was enough to drive the man into sudden retirement, lol. When Eddie George had 400+ carries in 2000, he was never the same afterwards. Jamal Lewis had a bunch of carries in 2003 and then had a pretty big dropoff in 2004. Curtis Martin never recovered from a 408 carry crescendo in 2004. Shaun Alexander never recovered from a 430 carry high in 2005. Look what happened when Larry Johnson got 429 carries in 2006. The only guy that I can think of that recovered from a high workload like that was Tomlinson in 2007 when he had gotten 371 carries in 2006. The Falcons really played with fire when they rode Michael Turner as hard as they did. The backs always say they can handle it, the coaches always think they just get stronger the more carries you give them. Then comes the next season and you wonder why the guy just isn't the same.