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You keep bringing up next year. The Colts aren't drafting Luck to win anything next year. Stop and think for a moment. They're going to draft Luck then build around him. That's how good teams do it. That's how they did it before, when they built a team around Peyton Manning and competed damn near every year, including winning a Super Bowl. What did the Phins accomplish over the same time period? And I fully understand how much Manning lifted the talent-level of that team, because I understand that QB is by far the most important position in football. Far more important than LT.
While I enjoy the backtracking regarding competitiveness, I will agree on one thing: getting the number one pick does not guarantee success. You still need to use that pick wisely. For example, you never take an LT when a QB is available and you are in desperate need of one. You also never take a RB when one is available at the #2, but I digress... Taking a QB is always a risk, but it's always a risk worth taking. Sticking with the safe picks, which linemen usually are, guarantees continued mediocrity, at best (6-10 isn't even that).
It's still too early to judge the Lions, but they've gone from 2-14 to the playoffs and I don't see any reason, outside of potential Stafford health issues (many of which have to do with his competitiveness and willingness to play hurt when he probably shouldn't), that that team won't be a perennial playoff contender. They got their QB, surrounded him with weapons, and then built a solid defense. I don't see anything inconsistent about that.
The Houston Texans after 2006 were inconsistent? They've owned the Phins, that's for sure, but that's neither here nor there. They gave Carr one more shot and drafted Mario Willams, then moved on in 2007 to Matt Schaub. Once they had the QB settled, they began to build the team, especially the defense (noticing a theme here?) over the next couple of years. Now that they have a solid D under Wade Phillips, you still see them as being inconsistent? You don't see them winning that division again next year?
I don't really need to say anything about the Chargers since drafting Rivers. If you don't realize that the only thing that has held that potential powerhouse back is Norv Turner, well, now's not the time for football lessons. How that guy keeps his job (and continues getting head coaching jobs) is beyond me. Despite him, they still made three straight playoff appearances including a conference championship. How many playoff appearances have the Phins made in the past decade?
The Bengals are the only ones on my list that I would qualify as inconsistent. They certainly used the 1st pick properly, and gave him weapons. They even had a solid D. I can't really explain why they haven't been successful. Difficult division? Building the team with a bunch of headcases? Using the 1st pick doesn't guarantee success. You still have to make wise decisions regarding the team. But it is a HUGE stepping stone to success. They got that part right, then bombed on the rest.
The Falcons are a good example of using the 1st pick correctly twice (I'll count their use of the #2 for Matt Ryan as a 1st pick, since he should have been), but getting different results out of it. They were successful under Vick, but they failed to build anything around him. They just didn't know what to do with a player like that (plus, he was a little overrated IMO). He held that team up as much as he could and got them to the playoffs twice, but in the end, they didn't bother to build around that 1st pick.
They didn't make that same mistake with Matt Ryan. That team was in shambles in 2007. I have no idea how they won 4 games. I honestly think we could have gotten our second win if we played them. They needed a QB as badly as we did, but unlike us, they actually drafted one. They then gave him some weapons and built a D. Since then, they haven't had a losing season and have made the playoffs 3 years out of 4. They've lost to Super Bowl appearing teams each time, two of which won it. That's hardly "inconsistent." You can call him mediocre all you want, but that "mediocre" QB has led his team to the playoffs 3 times with no losing seasons while our elite LT hasn't led us to ****.
In summary, having the 1st pick doesn't guarantee you anything, you still need to use it wisely and build a team around it. Some teams get it, others don't. Further, every draft is different. People don't seem to get this. They basically think all 1st picks are the same, that every top QB in a given draft is the same as every top QB in every other draft. That's ridiculous. There hasn't been a prospect like Luck in years. Hell, since 1998. And we missed out on it. But, at least we have Matt Moore and an awesome LT (when healthy).
Great post. Would read again. Wish i could thank this more than once.