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Some FF concepts that you might not know about....(entry level content)

NBP81

Its what you know for sure... that just aint so...
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So lets play a game... Texas hold'em, 100 players, 1 hand, everyone gets the same Flop, Turn and River and you get to pick your starting hand. Winner(or pot is split between ties) takes all... 10$ entry, 1k pot. Which starting hand would you pick?

This seems pretty straight forward on the surface right? AA! says everyone...

Its all fun and games until you realize that if you pick AA, A) You will win very often and B) When you do win, it wont be much more than what it cost you to enter the contest to begin with. On the other end of the spectrum, if you pick 7-2 off-suit, A) You will lose pretty much always but B) When you do win, you're most likely to win the whole pot. Now the right hand to pick here is probably neither AA or 72 off suit. You could come up with how everyone is likely to pick their hands vs how often every single one of these hands are likely to win and just take the one with the best expected value...

Now WTF does that have to do with FF? Let me preface this by admitting Im not very much into FF, but this concept pretty much applies to anything gambling related and whether you'd like to admit it or not, pretty much everything in life is a gambling proposition. Risk vs reward.

The poker game here is pretty much something you can do in daily fantasy football every single day, tourneys. Depending on the payout structure, you're going to build your team with either solid(AA) or Boom or Bust(7-2o) potential. Winner takes all = boom or bust while a game in which half the players get payed would warrant a more solid approach. Heads up games, or one vs one would absolutely warrant a solid roster too.

When it comes to season long fantasy leagues or even keepers, it becomes alot murkier... Like I said earlier, Im not into FF much and absolutely dont play vs pros but in the drafts and rankings I come across, its a very lopsided approach towards building a solid roster. Players seems to go for the solid positions first alot while waiting on the variance based groups later in the draft, which makes sense, season long FF is just a bunch 1v1 games stringed together. But at the same time, building a strictly solid team severely limits your upside, especially if one of your strongest solid player were to miss some time.

Long story short, player rankings and expected PPG are only half of what you should look at when building your team. You really need to pay attention to how the other guys are drafting and whether they're building solid teams or boom or bust teams. They might not even know what the **** they're doing but it doesnt matter, you can still exploit it. This will be most useful when you're drafting late or when you're severely outmatched in a particular game.

Dont expect solid to do miracles, they're called solid for a reason. If you're up against a solid team that should easily beat you, you need to switch it up. If you're going to lose, it doesnt matter by how many points you lose, you need to gamble it up... Some ways to add variance to your team or to neutralize the solid on the other team...

  • Matching QBs with their WRs/TEs
  • Matching your WRs/TEs with their QB and vice versa
  • Starting mediocre RBs on the winning side of an expected high scoring blowout. *check vegas total and odds.
  • When drafting late, picking the best WR off the board expecting to pick his QB later either as a backup or starter.
  • Sitting a solid QB for the mediocre backup with which you roster a great WR/TE.
These are not advice, only examples, and there are many ways to include variance to your rosters or game day strategy when its the correct approach to take. Im sure alot of people already know this but its something you should always keep in mind in any game you play actually.

One last example that has absolutely nothing to do with FF... Matt Moore and Fitzmagic milked a pretty nice, long and rich career in the NFL using exactly this concept. There's no way they would've lasted this long in the NFL trying to play a solid QB game, instead they just went out there and gambled it up and Im pretty sure they'd do it the same way again if given the opportunity.
 
ummmm in other words..... your balls itch and your trying to mask the sensation in your mind as long as possible.....

but lets put it this way..... RT Goat got me that 2019 badge, he was a backup qb to mariota when i drafted him and i was mocked. said player who mocked me for weeks is no longer on site he choked on my balls so much after that gamble
 
The key to being successful at fantasy football is watching all 32 teams. Having a good understanding of the personnel of every team is very important. When injuries happen, and they always happen, the waiver wire decisions will decide who wins the season.
 
So lets play a game... Texas hold'em, 100 players, 1 hand, everyone gets the same Flop, Turn and River and you get to pick your starting hand. Winner(or pot is split between ties) takes all... 10$ entry, 1k pot. Which starting hand would you pick?

This seems pretty straight forward on the surface right? AA! says everyone...

Its all fun and games until you realize that if you pick AA, A) You will win very often and B) When you do win, it wont be much more than what it cost you to enter the contest to begin with. On the other end of the spectrum, if you pick 7-2 off-suit, A) You will lose pretty much always but B) When you do win, you're most likely to win the whole pot. Now the right hand to pick here is probably neither AA or 72 off suit. You could come up with how everyone is likely to pick their hands vs how often every single one of these hands are likely to win and just take the one with the best expected value...

Now WTF does that have to do with FF? Let me preface this by admitting Im not very much into FF, but this concept pretty much applies to anything gambling related and whether you'd like to admit it or not, pretty much everything in life is a gambling proposition. Risk vs reward.

The poker game here is pretty much something you can do in daily fantasy football every single day, tourneys. Depending on the payout structure, you're going to build your team with either solid(AA) or Boom or Bust(7-2o) potential. Winner takes all = boom or bust while a game in which half the players get payed would warrant a more solid approach. Heads up games, or one vs one would absolutely warrant a solid roster too.

When it comes to season long fantasy leagues or even keepers, it becomes alot murkier... Like I said earlier, Im not into FF much and absolutely dont play vs pros but in the drafts and rankings I come across, its a very lopsided approach towards building a solid roster. Players seems to go for the solid positions first alot while waiting on the variance based groups later in the draft, which makes sense, season long FF is just a bunch 1v1 games stringed together. But at the same time, building a strictly solid team severely limits your upside, especially if one of your strongest solid player were to miss some time.

Long story short, player rankings and expected PPG are only half of what you should look at when building your team. You really need to pay attention to how the other guys are drafting and whether they're building solid teams or boom or bust teams. They might not even know what the **** they're doing but it doesnt matter, you can still exploit it. This will be most useful when you're drafting late or when you're severely outmatched in a particular game.

Dont expect solid to do miracles, they're called solid for a reason. If you're up against a solid team that should easily beat you, you need to switch it up. If you're going to lose, it doesnt matter by how many points you lose, you need to gamble it up... Some ways to add variance to your team or to neutralize the solid on the other team...

  • Matching QBs with their WRs/TEs
  • Matching your WRs/TEs with their QB and vice versa
  • Starting mediocre RBs on the winning side of an expected high scoring blowout. *check vegas total and odds.
  • When drafting late, picking the best WR off the board expecting to pick his QB later either as a backup or starter.
  • Sitting a solid QB for the mediocre backup with which you roster a great WR/TE.
These are not advice, only examples, and there are many ways to include variance to your rosters or game day strategy when its the correct approach to take. Im sure alot of people already know this but its something you should always keep in mind in any game you play actually.

One last example that has absolutely nothing to do with FF... Matt Moore and Fitzmagic milked a pretty nice, long and rich career in the NFL using exactly this concept. There's no way they would've lasted this long in the NFL trying to play a solid QB game, instead they just went out there and gambled it up and Im pretty sure they'd do it the same way again if given the opportunity.
I agree with your strategy. I think the other important thing is to really have a good understanding of how your league's score settings work. Something as simple as a scoring bonus or a subtraction for incomplete passes can change the game regarding which players to field. I go so far as to take the settings, pull the stats and do the math to find an average per position type to base my draft picks on. Sure, luck and injuries factor in but, just like in anything else, the more research you do, the better prepared you are. Then you toss in 3 shots and 8 drinks with your buddies on draft day and the whole plan is out the window!
 
I use the tier system when I conduct a draft. There are different websites but I use The Huddle @ https://thehuddle.com/ . It will take some reading about Tiers but I will give the meatball version.

I have an excel spreedsheet and place my players by ranking them and then their Tiers. For Example QB 1-3 are Tier 1, QB 4-10 are Tier 2, so on. Do this for each player grouping. You then need to ask yourself, how do you value your players worth and what tier do you want to select your QB. When it comes time for draft day, players are taken in front of you and usually there are runs by position and all of the Tier 1 WR are taken in front of you. You have to decide if you take the best Tier 2 WR or a tier 1 RB, QB or TE? I was in this situation last year and picked the #1 TE as Kelce was going to get more points in the season than a Tier 2 (barring injury, trade, etc.). I took Justin Herbert in RD#2 and created run on the Tier 1 QB's and then panic set in and peeps started drafting Tier 2 QB's fearing they would not have a quality starting QB. This then made a Tier 1 RB available to me. I also draft only 1 DEF and one Kicker at the last two rounds. I can always pick up a K/DEF for bye weeks and drop them. I use their 2nd slots for sleepers.

No draft is the same because of the human component, fear. Fear of not getting a quality person at a certain position. As you draft, watch the runs on positions and do not continue the run if there is a higher Tier player at another position. I have used this system the past 4 years in two leagues which I have been in the top for teams for both leagues for all four years. I switched from drafting in a RB-WR-WR/TE-RB-QB format which was okay and created solid teams but did not have the performance of the tier system.

Just my thoughts
 
I use the tier system when I conduct a draft. There are different websites but I use The Huddle @ https://thehuddle.com/ . It will take some reading about Tiers but I will give the meatball version.

I have an excel spreedsheet and place my players by ranking them and then their Tiers. For Example QB 1-3 are Tier 1, QB 4-10 are Tier 2, so on. Do this for each player grouping. You then need to ask yourself, how do you value your players worth and what tier do you want to select your QB. When it comes time for draft day, players are taken in front of you and usually there are runs by position and all of the Tier 1 WR are taken in front of you. You have to decide if you take the best Tier 2 WR or a tier 1 RB, QB or TE? I was in this situation last year and picked the #1 TE as Kelce was going to get more points in the season than a Tier 2 (barring injury, trade, etc.). I took Justin Herbert in RD#2 and created run on the Tier 1 QB's and then panic set in and peeps started drafting Tier 2 QB's fearing they would not have a quality starting QB. This then made a Tier 1 RB available to me. I also draft only 1 DEF and one Kicker at the last two rounds. I can always pick up a K/DEF for bye weeks and drop them. I use their 2nd slots for sleepers.

No draft is the same because of the human component, fear. Fear of not getting a quality person at a certain position. As you draft, watch the runs on positions and do not continue the run if there is a higher Tier player at another position. I have used this system the past 4 years in two leagues which I have been in the top for teams for both leagues for all four years. I switched from drafting in a RB-WR-WR/TE-RB-QB format which was okay and created solid teams but did not have the performance of the tier system.

Just my thoughts
Yes, it's a great system. I've used it.
 
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