Some interesting numbers halfway through the season

[NBP81]

Defensive interceptions correlate with wins at 0.41.

TD passes correlate with wins at 0.46.

QB rating differential, on the other hand correlates with wins at 0.81, and adjusted net yards per passing attempt differential correlates with wins at 0.84.

That gives you an idea of how some stats can be very strongly associated with winning, whereas others are much more weakly associated with winning.

Interestingly enough, Joe Philbin had his finger on the pulse of this in his introductory press conference with the Dolphins:

http://www.thephinsider.com/2012/1/22/2725109/miami-dolphins-coach-joe-philbin-introduction

INTs for and agains and passing TDs for and against are a big part of the quarterback rating differential rating you speak of. So by throwing more TDs and our defense getting more INTs is a big step in the right direction for improving that rating. All that's left to accomplish to get that rating to a superior level is to get the QB to cut down on the INTs. considering Tannehill is in his second pro football season, I'd say its very likely that he improves in that regard...

 

[rent this space]

Defensive interceptions correlate with wins at 0.41.

TD passes correlate with wins at 0.46.

QB rating differential, on the other hand correlates with wins at 0.81, and adjusted net yards per passing attempt differential correlates with wins at 0.84.

That gives you an idea of how some stats can be very strongly associated with winning, whereas others are much more weakly associated with winning.

Interestingly enough, Joe Philbin had his finger on the pulse of this in his introductory press conference with the Dolphins:

http://www.thephinsider.com/2012/1/22/2725109/miami-dolphins-coach-joe-philbin-introduction

wouldn't more TD passes lead to a higher QB rating differential?

 

[rent this space]

Also, how do Tannehill's numbers compare to last year at the midway point?

 

[ATL_PHIN_FAN]

Sure, but if you'd like to find out why that is, start with the stats that are strongly correlated with winning (as opposed to the ones linked in the OP), and see where we're falling short.

Thanks, but I know why. They are young. They have a new system they are still learning on both sides of the ball. They have an inexperienced, yet promising, HC. Their QB, while high on potential, is far from reaching it in just his second year. They don't know they're own system well enough to run it as designed on both sides of the ball. We have not yet filled all of our key positions with players our coach really wants. There have been a few disasters along the way; the loss of Keller and the absolute turnstile of Martin and Clabo that few would have predicted. They also have lacked confidence and professionalism and leadership at times. All of these things have contributed to our current record and the pis* poor stats you like to quote.

 

[Shouright]

wouldn't more TD passes lead to a higher QB rating differential?

Yes, but despite what one would think, given that points (i.e., TDs) would theoretically predict wins, there is another component of QB rating that's more strongly associated with winning.

Here are the components of QB rating and their correlations with winning (on offense only):

Attempts: -0.16

Completions: 0.10

Completion percentage: 0.43

Passing yards: 0.31

Yards per pass attempt (YPA): 0.58

TDs: 0.46

INTs: -0.45

So you can see that despite what one would think intuitively with regard to the relationship between TDs (i.e., points) and wins, and the relationship between INTs (i.e., one kind of turnover) and wins, YPA, which is a measure of passing efficiency, is more strongly associated with wins than either of those.

 

[Shouright]

Also, how do Tannehill's numbers compare to last year at the midway point?

Tannehill's numbers through this half of the season actually compare unfavorably with his stats during the second half of last season, and with Chad Henne's stats during the first half of his second season as a starter (2010).

 

[Shouright]

Thanks, but I know why. They are young. They have a new system they are still learning on both sides of the ball. They have an inexperienced, yet promising, HC. Their QB, while high on potential, is far from reaching it in just his second year. They don't know they're own system well enough to run it as designed on both sides of the ball. We have not yet filled all of our key positions with players our coach really wants. There have been a few disasters along the way; the loss of Keller and the absolute turnstile of Martin and Clabo that few would have predicted. They also have lacked confidence and professionalism and leadership at times. All of these things have contributed to our current record and the pis* poor stats you like to quote.

And those are perhaps the underlying reasons why the stats that correlate strongly with winning aren't up to snuff for this team right now.

Then again there could be entirely different reasons, such as the lack of sufficient ability in the key personnel responsible. Your personal explanations are almost entirely situational, whereas in reality they could be entirely dispositional (i.e., ability), or a mixture of both.

 

[ATL_PHIN_FAN]

And those are perhaps the underlying reasons why the stats that correlate strongly with winning aren't up to snuff for this team right now.

Then again there could be entirely different reasons, such as the lack of sufficient ability in the key personnel responsible. Your personal explanations are almost entirely situational, whereas in reality they could be entirely dispositional (i.e., ability), or a mixture of both.

And that's exactly why I don't talk about it much. Because, it is more of a feeling than any hard evidence. It's just an opinion. What's happening with this team was expected, at least by me. I predicted the Dolphins would squeeze into the playoffs. And they still might. The record they have now is as good or better than most on this board hoped would be possible, even though we are a developing team.

While I may be disappointed at opportunities lost, I'm not going to panic just because everything isn't coming together all at the same time. For that to happen, the team we were building 2 years ago would have to mesh personal wise with the team we are building now. That's just not the case. Since it's not the case, we have consistency issues on this team. The players Sporano wanted and the players Philbin wants aren't the same. Considering what Philbin started with, I think he's done well. That is why continuity is so important, so we don't have to go through this every few years. Did no one learn anything from the Shula years?

 

[Daytona Fin]

Sure, but it's funny how when stats are used in support of the need for "good news," there is no "agenda" attributed to the person providing them. It's all warm and fuzzy, regardless of how meaningful the stats really are.

On the other hand, when someone presents stats that aren't what everybody wants to hear, regardless of the fact that those stats are strongly correlated with winning, ah, then look out -- that person needs to be burned at the stake!

I posted the article because it shows that are defense is on pace for tying or breaking some prestigious records. We have had some very dominating defenses in our history and for this squad to be performing at the level they are deserves some praise. It's also been a long time since we have had a qb that is progressing rather than regressing, you can doubt tannehill all day but if you can't see that he is going to be a great qb then you don't know much about football.

 

[Shouright]

I posted the article because it shows that are defense is on pace for tying or breaking some prestigious records. We have had some very dominating defenses in our history and for this squad to be performing at the level they are deserves some praise. It's also been a long time since we have had a qb that is progressing rather than regressing, you can doubt tannehill all day but if you can't see that he is going to be a great qb then you don't know much about football.

What if one is uncertain as to how good Tannehill is going to be? What does that say about one's knowledge of football?

 

[fishfanmiami]

Then go to one of the other Tannehill suks threads or start one youself.

Look you are an excellent numbers guy. i'll give you that and for me the QB play needs much improvement but some of the blame for sacks and fumbles going to the makeshift O line.
I do think it's really unfair to squash this very small nugget of hope thread just to justify that you are right which you very well could be. Just my opinion dude.

 

[Crazysimon]

We have a chance to make the playoffs. I think that's what most people were expecting at the beginning of the season. Lets do it!

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Tannehill really needs to raise the level of his game. That's the bottom line. I started mentioning yards per attempt almost immediately after joining this site in 2005. That stat seldom lies. One basic criteria I always look for is how often the quarterback averages 7 yards per attempt or higher during a game. Forget interceptions and adjusted numbers. They can be somewhat random, IMO. The base number is typically enough. You need consistency from the quarterback in getting the ball effectively down the field. Tannehill has averaged 7 yards per attempt or higher in only 9 games total in 2012 and 2013 combined. In contrast, Russell Wilson has managed it 19 times, including a current run of 16 times in the past 18 games, including last year's playoffs. That should demonstrate how far Tannehill is from Wilson's level, especially since Wilson has had similar offensive line and sack issues, yet he's still getting the ball down the field. And this is without Percy Harvin. Peyton Manning is on another level completely, with 21 games of 7+ in 2012 and 2013, including every game this season.

 

[Shouright]

Then go to one of the other Tannehill suks threads or start one youself.

Look you are an excellent numbers guy. i'll give you that and for me the QB play needs much improvement but some of the blame for sacks and fumbles going to the makeshift O line.
I do think it's really unfair to squash this very small nugget of hope thread just to justify that you are right which you very well could be. Just my opinion dude.

I don't think anyone's hope should be contingent on what anyone else here is doing. If you have hope, good for you. Don't let anyone squash it. :up:

 

[fishfanmiami]

I'd like to get the running game going so we can play action and give the receiver a chance to get down the field and maybe improve on this number which is very low AD.

Pressure means dump offs and cut off routes which only adds to the problem so again the O line has something to do with this don't you think ? Wilson is much more mobile at least in the pocket and much better at side stepping the pass rush.