Some stats for evaluating Y Bell

[FinHopeful]

There are interesting questions raised by the most recent daily stat from Football Outsiders. The stat is Pass Tackles for Safeties. This stat tracks the ability of a safety to make a key tackle (stop) before the receiver reaches a goal such as a first down. I was shocked to find out that Y Bell is one of the top 10 safeties in the league for stop rate, and that he lead the league in stops. I was not expecting to him rated this high in any stat. I decided to use the raw coverage stats (not subject ratings) from Pro Football Focus.

He has a better than average catch percentage allowed and a reasonable QB rating allowed. He did allow a huge Yards After the Catch total, but he had a pretty good year. The other thing I learned or should I say relearned is that J.Leonhard from the Jets is a high impact safety.


Top 10 SAF Stop Rate on Complete Passes, 2009
(min. 20 tackles after receptions)
Player Team Plays Stops Stop Rate
----------------------------------------------
27-Q.Mikell PHI 43 14 33%
42-C.Crocker CIN 26 8 31%
24-A.Afalava CHI 23 7 30%
20-M.Adams CLE 33 10 30%
36-J.Leonhard NYJ 34 10 29%
37-Y.Bell MIA 49 14 29%
20-E.Reed BAL 29 8 28%
20-D.Whitner BUF 26 7 27%
35-V.Harris PHI 23 6 26%
37-R.Doughty WAS 27 7 26%


Player Team % Ct AVG YAC Rating
------------------------------------------------
27-Q.Mikell PHI 60% 8.6 104 81.9
42-C.Crocker CIN 58% 14.8 82 80.8
24-A.Afalava CHI 69% 14.3 134 123.6
20-M.Adams CLE 66% 11.4 180 88.7
36-J.Leonhard NYJ 37% 8.9 38 24.5
37-Y.Bell MIA 54% 12.4 191 65.5
20-E.Reed BAL 67% 10.1 59 62.1
20-D.Whitner BUF 62% 12.8 126 58.1
35-V.Harris PHI 76% 11.9 123 129.8
37-R.Doughty WAS 68% 8.9 135 90.3

 

[LibertineOneThree]

I'd love to be able to believe these stats and I'd love even more for someone to find a couple of stat groups to really accurately judge a DB but... I'm pretty confident in saying these particular ones don't really mean too much.

My basis for this is twofold.
1) Ed Reed being outside the top 5.
2) Chris Crocker being mentioned.

So nice try but I still suspect that Bell, for all his heart and work is a little short of being un-upgradable. He missed on some plays this year and his overall play, together with his age tell me he's probably not going to be a starting part of a Dolphins deep playoff run.

 

[Spesh]

I'd love to be able to believe these stats and I'd love even more for someone to find a couple of stat groups to really accurately judge a DB but... I'm pretty confident in saying these particular ones don't really mean too much.

My basis for this is twofold.
1) Ed Reed being outside the top 5.
2) Chris Crocker being mentioned.

So nice try but I still suspect that Bell, for all his heart and work is a little short of being un-upgradable. He missed on some plays this year and his overall play, together with his age tell me he's probably not going to be a starting part of a Dolphins deep playoff run.

Keep in mind many of those stats are dependent on the QB throwing the ball around them. Usually QB's stay as far away from Reed as possible, and the same cannot be said for Crocker(who, from my understanding, had a fairly decent year for the Bengals).

Personally, im a big fan of Bell, he works hard and i never see him give up on a play. He's the reason why alot of those "big plays" against us werent "homeruns". At the moment, i see only 1 position on the team safe from non-upgradable(Jake Long). But Bell seems solid, especially with the supporting cast of clowns and schemes we had on defense last year.
Is he in the league of Reed or Polamalu? Certainly not, but we surely dont have a hole at that position at the moment.

 

[miamiron]

Bell was targeted 61 times or more than any safety in the NFL in 2009
You think defensive coordinators know something about Bell's ability in pass coverage?

Only 6 safeties allowed more receptions out of 87 in 2009

In 2008 guess who was targeted more than any safety in the NFL
YOUR RIGHT...BELL WAS TARGETED MORE THAN 82 OTHER
SAFETIES...77 TIMES WITH 54 OPPOSITION RECEPTIONS
Maybe just maybe defensive coordinators target Bell for a reason
more than any safety in football 2 years in a row.

Guess WHO ALLOWED THE MOST RECEPTIONS BY A SAFETY IN 2008
YOUR RIGHT...BELL WITH 54 RECEPTIONS

Bell may be strong in run defense but he is a liability in any pass defense situation being targeted the most of any NFL safety 2 years in a row...by allowing receptions that put him if not at the bottom of the nfl then very close...by being at the bottom or very close to allowing the most passing yards by a safety in the NFL

THE ONLY SAFETY TO ALLOW BACK TO BACK 400+ PASSING YRDS

You decide if this is the kind of production that will
help us get to the playoffs and super bowl

 

[FinHopeful]

I'd love to be able to believe these stats and I'd love even more for someone to find a couple of stat groups to really accurately judge a DB but... I'm pretty confident in saying these particular ones don't really mean too much.

My basis for this is twofold.
1) Ed Reed being outside the top 5.
2) Chris Crocker being mentioned.

So nice try but I still suspect that Bell, for all his heart and work is a little short of being un-upgradable. He missed on some plays this year and his overall play, together with his age tell me he's probably not going to be a starting part of a Dolphins deep playoff run.

The first block of stats only indicate the best safeties in the league for making bone jarring tackles or limiting yardage after the catch. In other words, it indicates the safety you would prefer to be facing a WR that caught the ball 4 yards from the first down. The stat prefers big hitters.

The second block of stats does not represent the best in the league. It is a look at the coverage abilities of the top ten stop after the catch safeties. I complied these stats from Pro Football Focus coverage stats (not the subjective ones). The purpose of compiling these stats is to see how good the stop after the catch aces perform in coverage. I am sure that Ed Reed performed no where near the top due to his injuries. Ed Reed's numbers are still impressive. He held the receivers to 59 yards after the catch on 29 catches. That is very good.

The point is I thought Y. Bell had a poor year because of the long pass plays, and this shows that his yards after the catch total certainly suffered. I was shocked to see his catch percentage allowed was reasonable. My point is my perception of his performance was off.

 

[sharp]

Chris Crocker LOL

We've been cursed at Safety since Marion started to get old.

 

[BARF]

Chris Crocker LOL

We've been cursed at Safety since Marion started to get old.

lol, and we let him go, just like alomst every player we let go and they do good elsewhere

 

[FinHopeful]

Bell was targeted 61 times or more than any safety in the NFL in 2009

That is a good point. Is that a function of the scheme or the player? I am not sure which one is at fault. Why target a safety with 54.1 catch percentage allowed twice as often as a safety (Wilson) with a 58.1 catch percentage allowed. Wilson gave up 13.8 yards per catch as opposed to 12.4 yards per catch for Bell. Either way the targets and yardage allowed is not good.

 

[FinHopeful]

There are 59 safeties that had worse completion percentage allowed numbers that Bell. There are 58 safeties with higher QB Ratings allowed than Bell. Before you say who cares, the top 5 safeties by QB rating allowed excluding players with fewer the 400 snaps are the following.

George Wilson 20.5
Jim Leonhard 34.0
Michael Huff 34.2
Darren Sharper 34.7
Ryan Clark 36.2

 

[j-off-her-doll]

A lot of our woes at the Safety were a result of poor schematics. Bell's not a great cover Safety, but he used to be pretty good, and he used to make tons of plays. In prior seasons, he was one of my favorite Dolphins. PP had Bell and Wilson covering TE's and WR's man-to-man while giving them 15 yard cushions. I'm not particularly down on either, but they both should be SS's.

 

[ColonelJ]

Right on! Bell is a beast in tackling. I love the guy. He even looks like a linebacker, only running at the speed of light. But the guy seriously gets lost in pass coverage a lot. Hey Yeremiah, there is no safety behind you! You are the safety!

 

[#1dolphinsfan]

Right on! Bell is a beast in tackling. I love the guy. He even looks like a linebacker, only running at the speed of light. But the guy seriously gets lost in pass coverage a lot. Hey Yeremiah, there is no safety behind you! You are the safety!

Maybe we should Try him out at OLB he has the strength, he would need to gain some weight though

 

[twg76]

Here's my take on Bell.

He's more of a tackler and run stopper than a ball hawk. That's probably why teams pass on him. Ed Reed is so famous because of his ball hawking skills. Reed gets INTs all the time. He gets them at pivotal moments when the team needs an INT most. That is what has made Reed so famous.

Bell is not a big INT guy. That is a weakness for sure. He did start to grab a few at the end of 2009, but he usually only gets a few each year. And they don't always come at the most pivotal moments in games. BUT... he does knock passes down at those pivotal moments. He's well-known for knocking the ball away from receivers late in the game when we need a stop.

As the rookie DBs get experience, they will cover better and better. That will allow YB to do what he does best - stop the run and tackle.