Somebody look this up

[caneaddict]

Andre Wadsworth was supposed to be the greatest DE to come out since Bruce Smith. A true can't miss prospect. There's tons of these guys, weather t be injury or poor play they just don't get it done.

 

[ROSCO P.C. JR]

dont mince words finjim tell us how you really feel about the talent in this years draft.

i know that qb brad smith would make a good wr and fb shawn willis is a beast . lt charle johnson is a workhorse and doesnt make a lot of mistakes .
i wish i knew who some cornerbacks are . the linebacker i want is a.j. hawk or daniel mclemore.

 

[caneaddict]

What I've always wanted to see done is an objective analysis analyzing the success percentage among various picks.

You would start by defining different levels of success:

1) 5+ Pro Bowls
2) At least 1 Pro Bowl and X number of starts
3) X number of starts

You could find classifications for each position if you want and then have an objective grade say 1-4 for each player drafted. You would then look at the probability of reaching success at each pick and compare that to the Draft value chart used for trades.

So maybe you find that a #10 pick has a 8% chance of becoming a superstar and a #25 player has a 6% chance. So if you could trade down from 10 to 25 and acquire say a mid 2nd rounder that theoretically has a 3% chance of being a superstar then it would always make sense to trade down.

Instead of having a #10 pick with an 8% chance you have 2 players that together have a 9% chance of at least one of them becoming a superstar.

I wonder if the Phins would pay me to do the analysis?

 

[finjim]

that's what I'm saying. So many people in here think it's a lock to get a stud in the first round. But it's not, especially at QB

 

[arsenal]

What I've always wanted to see done is an objective analysis analyzing the success percentage among various picks.

You would start by defining different levels of success:

1) 5+ Pro Bowls
2) At least 1 Pro Bowl and X number of starts
3) X number of starts

You could find classifications for each position if you want and then have an objective grade say 1-4 for each player drafted. You would then look at the probability of reaching success at each pick and compare that to the Draft value chart used for trades.

So maybe you find that a #10 pick has a 8% chance of becoming a superstar and a #25 player has a 6% chance. So if you could trade down from 10 to 25 and acquire say a mid 2nd rounder that theoretically has a 3% chance of being a superstar then it would always make sense to trade down.

Instead of having a #10 pick with an 8% chance you have 2 players that together have a 9% chance of at least one of them becoming a superstar.

I wonder if the Phins would pay me to do the analysis?

somehting like that has already been done, dont remember where it is, but im sure it'll resurface as we get towards the offseason and draft time...

 

[General Tso]

I'm talking about can't-miss-sure-fire-gonna be a stud in the NFL player.

Like Ryan Leaf.

Or that guy out of Iowa State who led the NCAA in rushing.

If you're talking about Iowa State's Troy Davis, he was never considered a can't-miss-sure-fire-gonna be a stud NFL player. He was simply a very good college RB. Hence why he wasn't drafted until the 3rd round.

 

[Superself]

Yatil Green

 

[Motion]

Terrance Neuman

 

[finfan75]

Are you saying Vick, Palmer, Manning and Smith are busts?

]

No way! I am saying 2 of the last 5 #1 picks are busts. The others we will see in the next couple years or like Vick and Palmer are already at or near the top of their game.

 

[ch19079]

so to recap what people have added:

2000- courtney brown, peter warrick
2001- gerard warren
2002- mike williams (at this point i completly agree)
2003- charles rogers
2004- sean taylor
Ki-Jana Carter
Rashaan Salaam
Andre Ware
David Terrell
Ryan Leaf

i will add "The Soldier" Winslow
WR Rodgers (#2 overall in 2003)
QB Rex Grossman (#22 overall in 2003)
QB K. Boller (#19 overall in 2003)
DE Justin Smith (#4 overall in 2001) (L.T. was drafted #5 overall that year)

 

[NLude33]

What about Robert Gallery? Wasn't he the can't miss franchise LT? He didn't ever start the opener last year, played at gaurd then because of an injury, and this year plays RT. Guess we can see for ourselves this weekend, but I don't think he was made the impact a #2 overall picked OL should make.