Speculation: Green release may result in draft pick compensation | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Speculation: Green release may result in draft pick compensation

Nublar7

Nublar7

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This is just me thinking and speculating. Let me first start off by saying, I don't know the exact formula for compensatory picks, and there are very few people outside of the NFL that actually do. There is a guy that goes by the name AdamJT13 on KFFL that has pretty closely predicted the compensatory picks for the past eight years. Even he admits though that he doesn't exactly know the exact formula the NFL uses.

Here is what I do know. Every year around the end of March, the NFL awards 32 compensatory draft picks. These picks take place at the end of rounds 3-7. They are based on teams that lose more free agents then they acquire. Though, it is possible for teams to qualify if they lose the same amount as they acquire. The formula takes into account the size of the contract they signed, the amount of playing time they get and postseason honors. It is also noted that not every free agent goes into the formula.

Also, this is a very important part of the equation that I got from AdamJT13:

As always, please note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula. I don’t pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that the formula I use is a pretty good simulation.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value must be above a specific minimum amount; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.
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http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=247418

The above section is very important. That means that guys like Jason Taylor and Gibril Wilson do NOT qualify for the formula. From what I remember, this is who the Dolphins signed and lost(signed with another team) via the unrestricted free agency period:

Signed: Joe Berger, Jake Grove, Eric Green
Lost: Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, Al Johnson

Hill signed a 4 year $10 million deal with the Broncos and Goodman signed a 5 year $25 million deal with the Broncos. Grove signed a 5 year $30 million deal with the Dolphins. Green signed a 2 year $6 million deal with the Dolphins

Al Johnson signed pretty cheap with the Patriots and I think Berger got a small deal(three years I think).

Now, Al Johnson has already been released from the Patriots and now Green is gone from the Dolphins also. This puts the Dolphins back to having lost two(Hill and Goodman) and only signing two(Berger and Grove).

With Hill and Goodman likely starters for the Broncos and only Grove a starter for the Dolphins, the playing time part of the equation is going to tip in favor of the Dolphins. With Green being a bust and not counting at all towards the formula, it is very likely the Dolphins will end up with at least one compensatory pick.

While it may only end up being a 6th or 7th round pick, it is better then nothing.
 
So We think production has nothing to do with compensatory picks??
that kind of makes sense why a team like the patriots who always seems to build up in house gets compensatory picks every year...
 
We don't get anything for cutting a player. We only get something if another team signs them away in free agency.
 
I think it has everything to do with him sucking more then anything else!

NE gets compensated alot because bad teams sign NE FA's for huge contracts and they constently sign hungry FA's that have something to prove.
 
TXFinFan said:
We don't get anything for cutting a player. We only get something if another team signs them away in free agency.
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You are right. That wasn't my point though. Green no longer counts against the formula and no longer counts as a "player signed".
 
Nublar7 said:
You are right. That wasn't my point though. Green no longer counts against the formula and no longer counts as a "player signed".
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Well We signed Grove and lost Goodson so we really did not help anything
 
I'll settle for Green signing with a team we play. :)
 
dlockz said:
we signed Berger so Hill and Berger balance out plus Grove signed for more than Goodman.
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Maybe I need to re-read my original post because I thought I made it pretty clear.

We signed three and lost three originally. However, one of those three we signed was cut and the Patriots cut one of those that we lost.

So, when it comes to the formula, we lost Goodman and Hill, but gained Grove and Berger. As long as you don't LOSE more then you gain, you qualify for the formula. Doesn't guarantee you will get a pick, but it also means you are not shut out of the calculations.

Hill and Goodman both signed decent sized contracts. Grove got the biggest deal out of all of them, but Berger signed for peanuts. Grove and Goodman's contracts were pretty similar, so they will almost cancel each other out. Hill is making a lot more then Berger.

Another big part of the formula is playing time. Baring injuries to any player, Hill and Goodman are likely to combine for 32 starts. Grove and Berger would only combine for 16. Post season honors will also be a factor.

The point I was trying to make is that the two we lost compared to the two we gained is a lot more favorable in the formula compared to the original three we lost compared to the original three we signed. May sound a little confusing, but it is pretty easy to understand. Green got a decent contract and Johnson got a small deal. That would have hurt us, but now with both off the books, that helps us. When Johnson was cut in New England we were out of the formula because we would have signed three compared to have just lost two.

Get it?
 
Nublar7 said:
Maybe I need to re-read my original post because I thought I made it pretty clear.

We signed three and lost three originally. However, one of those three we signed was cut and the Patriots cut one of those that we lost.

So, when it comes to the formula, we lost Goodman and Hill, but gained Grove and Berger. As long as you don't LOSE more then you gain, you qualify for the formula. Doesn't guarantee you will get a pick, but it also means you are not shut out of the calculations.

Hill and Goodman both signed decent sized contracts. Grove got the biggest deal out of all of them, but Berger signed for peanuts. Grove and Goodman's contracts were pretty similar, so they will almost cancel each other out. Hill is making a lot more then Berger.

Another big part of the formula is playing time. Baring injuries to any player, Hill and Goodman are likely to combine for 32 starts. Grove and Berger would only combine for 16. Post season honors will also be a factor.

The point I was trying to make is that the two we lost compared to the two we gained is a lot more favorable in the formula compared to the original three we lost compared to the original three we signed. May sound a little confusing, but it is pretty easy to understand. Green got a decent contract and Johnson got a small deal. That would have hurt us, but now with both off the books, that helps us. When Johnson was cut in New England we were out of the formula because we would have signed three compared to have just lost two.

Get it?
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I missed that post somehow. Also not sure if signing a bust that we cut has as much affect on things as we think.


Also its very likely that Hill will not start al 16 games they have two good young rookies drafted fairly high
 
Thank you for this well thought out post. Best explanation I have ever heard.
 
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