Reading the boards lately, the Tua debacle and now this notion that Mcdaniel should somehow be on the hot seat, it really feels like there are some concepts that flow way over the head of many posters. First how much luck is actually required, on top of talent at different positions to win a championship and 2nd, how long it could take to materialize.
American football is by far the most luck driven team sports. The number of games alone makes it insane. 17 games compared to 80 or even 160 in some cases makes for heavy variance. Other factors being some of the most crushing flags being very subjective calls that can really change outcomes... think pass interference, holding calls, the ball still being spotted haphazardly in crucial situations... etc. The fact so many different position groups hold very different importance to roster building, amplified by the disparity brought to you by the salary cap. Yes! Everything has to go right, schedule, injuries, the division you play in, timely crucial calls and we're only talking about the in-game luck here.
The long run is a term i learned playing poker... Which might be like 80% luck and 20% skill(I'm not saying football is anywhere near that ratio but the concept still applies). The long run is the time it takes to really know if you're actually playing a winning strategy. In a poker setting, you could play well over 1000 hands and be up quite a bit, playing a **** game. The more luck involved, the more hands you need to play to be truly sure if you're strategy is a winning one.
That being said, I have no clue as to what the luck/skill% in football really is, but it's there. People like to talk about the late collapses 2 years in a row, and follow up with no excuses!!! Well I'm ****ing sorry but while I can't tell you for sure that they wouldn't have collapsed if they didn't lose their starting QB to injury the first time around and having to sign pass rushers off the street the following year, I can ABSOLUTELY tell you it was bad ****ing luck, that would have pretty much knocked any contender off the race.
There are many things though, that aren't luck related that typically win you games in the NFL, at the very top of that list is scoring points. And at the top of the list of what matters most to scoring point is an efficient passing offense, and while I've argued before that the running game doesn't really correlate to scoring points as much, I don't even give a **** anymore because the Fins are in the top 5 in all 3 categories anyway. This is good, no... This is ****ing great! You don't tell the dudes that are doing this it's time to **** or get off the pot, especially when they've been together for only 30 games.
You tell them, you keep doing what you're doing, keep getting better every year and we will have a shot every single ****ing year for the next decade.
American football is by far the most luck driven team sports. The number of games alone makes it insane. 17 games compared to 80 or even 160 in some cases makes for heavy variance. Other factors being some of the most crushing flags being very subjective calls that can really change outcomes... think pass interference, holding calls, the ball still being spotted haphazardly in crucial situations... etc. The fact so many different position groups hold very different importance to roster building, amplified by the disparity brought to you by the salary cap. Yes! Everything has to go right, schedule, injuries, the division you play in, timely crucial calls and we're only talking about the in-game luck here.
The long run is a term i learned playing poker... Which might be like 80% luck and 20% skill(I'm not saying football is anywhere near that ratio but the concept still applies). The long run is the time it takes to really know if you're actually playing a winning strategy. In a poker setting, you could play well over 1000 hands and be up quite a bit, playing a **** game. The more luck involved, the more hands you need to play to be truly sure if you're strategy is a winning one.
That being said, I have no clue as to what the luck/skill% in football really is, but it's there. People like to talk about the late collapses 2 years in a row, and follow up with no excuses!!! Well I'm ****ing sorry but while I can't tell you for sure that they wouldn't have collapsed if they didn't lose their starting QB to injury the first time around and having to sign pass rushers off the street the following year, I can ABSOLUTELY tell you it was bad ****ing luck, that would have pretty much knocked any contender off the race.
There are many things though, that aren't luck related that typically win you games in the NFL, at the very top of that list is scoring points. And at the top of the list of what matters most to scoring point is an efficient passing offense, and while I've argued before that the running game doesn't really correlate to scoring points as much, I don't even give a **** anymore because the Fins are in the top 5 in all 3 categories anyway. This is good, no... This is ****ing great! You don't tell the dudes that are doing this it's time to **** or get off the pot, especially when they've been together for only 30 games.
You tell them, you keep doing what you're doing, keep getting better every year and we will have a shot every single ****ing year for the next decade.
