Sports luck, and the long run. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Sports luck, and the long run.

NBP81

Its what you know for sure... that just aint so...
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Reading the boards lately, the Tua debacle and now this notion that Mcdaniel should somehow be on the hot seat, it really feels like there are some concepts that flow way over the head of many posters. First how much luck is actually required, on top of talent at different positions to win a championship and 2nd, how long it could take to materialize.

American football is by far the most luck driven team sports. The number of games alone makes it insane. 17 games compared to 80 or even 160 in some cases makes for heavy variance. Other factors being some of the most crushing flags being very subjective calls that can really change outcomes... think pass interference, holding calls, the ball still being spotted haphazardly in crucial situations... etc. The fact so many different position groups hold very different importance to roster building, amplified by the disparity brought to you by the salary cap. Yes! Everything has to go right, schedule, injuries, the division you play in, timely crucial calls and we're only talking about the in-game luck here.

The long run is a term i learned playing poker... Which might be like 80% luck and 20% skill(I'm not saying football is anywhere near that ratio but the concept still applies). The long run is the time it takes to really know if you're actually playing a winning strategy. In a poker setting, you could play well over 1000 hands and be up quite a bit, playing a **** game. The more luck involved, the more hands you need to play to be truly sure if you're strategy is a winning one.

That being said, I have no clue as to what the luck/skill% in football really is, but it's there. People like to talk about the late collapses 2 years in a row, and follow up with no excuses!!! Well I'm ****ing sorry but while I can't tell you for sure that they wouldn't have collapsed if they didn't lose their starting QB to injury the first time around and having to sign pass rushers off the street the following year, I can ABSOLUTELY tell you it was bad ****ing luck, that would have pretty much knocked any contender off the race.

There are many things though, that aren't luck related that typically win you games in the NFL, at the very top of that list is scoring points. And at the top of the list of what matters most to scoring point is an efficient passing offense, and while I've argued before that the running game doesn't really correlate to scoring points as much, I don't even give a **** anymore because the Fins are in the top 5 in all 3 categories anyway. This is good, no... This is ****ing great! You don't tell the dudes that are doing this it's time to **** or get off the pot, especially when they've been together for only 30 games.

You tell them, you keep doing what you're doing, keep getting better every year and we will have a shot every single ****ing year for the next decade.
 
Good take NP.

We have yet to see the derivitive affects of keeping the regime together.

Culture takes time.

Every staff must be given a clean slate, there cannot be any bleed from the past in how we judge the current staff.

Context us so important.

First time head coach is context..

We should allow time for his philosophies to manifest.
 
Good take NP.

We have yet to see the derivitive affects of keeping the regime together.

Culture takes time.

Every staff must be given a clean slate, there cannot be any bleed from the past in how we judge the current staff.

Context us so important.

First time head coach is context..

We should allow time for his philosophies to manifest.
I think they've already manifested tbh. Im a big proponent of no excuses at a personnal level. But as outside observers, it's a whole different story, context is an absolute must to make a correct analysis.

If you're top 5 in scoring, YPA and YPC consistently, you will go deep at some point. And it won't be when you have no QB to finish the season or when you have to sign important position players off the street to field a roster.

It's only a matter of time. Unless Ross ****s it up. Patience isn't an option for him. That might be a ****ing problem.
 
Love this post!!! Also look at how long it took Andy Reid to get credited for being a great coach. And he is great. Mcdaniel on the hot seat blows my mind. The offense is finally fun to watch!
We will get our share of tilted refereeing once the nfl notices we are trending. I can finally say that this team is fun to watch and the rise is coming.
As much as I hate bandwagon fans, they are the secret cheat code. Nfl will alway follow the $. Let's recruit some quick easy fans!
 
People also seem to forget that with 5 games left, we lost one of the top rated centers in the league in Connor Williams. And unfortunately, he was replaced by one of the worst rated centers in the league. Considering that center is the most important position on the offensive line, this was a HUGE loss, absolutely devastating. Combined with all the other injuries on the OLine, our offense was not the same after that.

Not having an adequate backup for Williams is not Tua's fault, nor is it McDaniel's. If anyone is to blame for lack of depth there, its Grier.
 
People also seem to forget that with 5 games left, we lost one of the top rated centers in the league in Connor Williams. And unfortunately, he was replaced by one of the worst rated centers in the league. Considering that center is the most important position on the offensive line, this was a HUGE loss, absolutely devastating. Combined with all the other injuries on the OLine, our offense was not the same after that.

Not having an adequate backup for Williams is not Tua's fault, nor is it McDaniel's. If anyone is to blame for lack of depth there, its Grier.
I don't even blame Grier... the Fins have a clear path to a SB. The question is, can they win 3 home games against playoff teams.

You cant have good backups everywhere.

This is how they are built, and the anwser is, in a luck neutral environement, yes! They absolutely can.
 
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Love this post!!! Also look at how long it took Andy Reid to get credited for being a great coach. And he is great. Mcdaniel on the hot seat blows my mind. The offense is finally fun to watch!
We will get our share of tilted refereeing once the nfl notices we are trending. I can finally say that this team is fun to watch and the rise is coming.
As much as I hate bandwagon fans, they are the secret cheat code. Nfl will alway follow the $. Let's recruit some quick easy fans!

I haven't had so much fun in an offense in I don't remember when... Run, Ricky, run? Wildcat?

But the sweet makes the sour all so much more bitter.

When this guy trips all over his fking self i.e. we're moving the sticks gingerly on the ground & out of nowhere he calls 3 straight back to back to back pass plays, I want to run around a labour ward punching newborn babies in the face.

But, yeah, man- we finally head into Sundays KNOWING WE CAN SCORE AT WILL. If we do is another thing.
 
Good take. I remember sitting w Ryan Tannehill at a company sponsored event in 2013 watching the SB between Seattle and Denver when he said, “to get to where these teams are so much has to go right / you need a lot of luck” or something to that effect. He mentioned injuries for one. I think we all know this, intuitively.

What I will say, is the late season collapses for me are not about the two playoff games, but the poor late season W/L. It could be nothing, or it could be indicative of a team that might not be built for the elements - we don’t know yet. That said, win the top seed and play all the post season in Miami!

One thing that truly bugs me about football is the penalties can dictate the outcome of the game more so than in any other sport by far. As you said - a PI, holding, roughing the passer etc - there is no good answer to how to fix it but one call can decide a game or a championship like we saw two years ago as Philly got called for a ticky tack DPI in a game when to that point, only procedural infractions had been called. That penalty gave KC the game and the fans an anti-climactic experience after a great back and forth football game was played.

So yeah, talent is tops but luck is a huge factor in this sport.

As Don Shula once said, “sure there’s bad luck in football. It’s bad luck if you don’t have a good QB” - or something to that effect.
 
Not sure I love the poker vs. Football analogy. One is a game of incomplete information played against multiple opponents; the other a sport played against one set opponent at a time. But I do agree poker is an interesting game that can provide insight into many facets of life - just not sure how poker luck equates to "football" luck other than "it pays to be lucky"... But that really applies to just about anything, right?

Also... It's one thing is blaming luck for not succeeding. Sure, injuries happen. They can happen at any time and one could just hang their head and chalk it up to bad luck. But it's another thing altogether to be prepared for bad luck (having a better QB room, for example) to give yourself a better chance to compete and succeed.
 
Not sure I love the poker vs. Football analogy. One is a game of incomplete information played against multiple opponents; the other a sport played against one set opponent at a time. But I do agree poker is an interesting game that can provide insight into many facets of life - just not sure how poker luck equates to "football" luck other than "it pays to be lucky"... But that really applies to just about anything, right?

Also... It's one thing is blaming luck for not succeeding. Sure, injuries happen. They can happen at any time and one could just hang their head and chalk it up to bad luck. But it's another thing altogether to be prepared for bad luck (having a better QB room, for example) to give yourself a better chance to compete and succeed.
I used the term luck because that's how the majority of people view it... The true term is variance and there's no such thing as good or bad variance. It's about how consistently things should happen vs. how they actually happen in real life. The disparity is called variance. It doesn't matter how much poker looks like football... Both are games and both involve a certain degree of variance. I used poker, I could've used sports betting I guess, to highlight the fact that ALL games involve a certain degree of variance... Chess is pretty much free of it... There is no "luck" involved, no bad bounces, not affected by human error outside of participants. 1V1.

Football, with 17 games seasons(and plenty other reasons), is the sport most affected by variance.
 
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