Sports luck, and the long run. | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Sports luck, and the long run.

Agreed! Having said that, Zach Wilson would throw INTs at alarming rates no matter what the situation !!! 😂

As you say, INTs in certain situations are more predictable than in others making them “less random” in that you can see them coming to a greater extent than fumbles. That said, point understood about winning teams throwing less / having the lead etc.

everybody has a gift.
 
Fins were the 12th most injured team by games lost in 2023. We were actually a bit worse off in 2022.

Source

Are all injuries equally “bad luck” or does the organization’s investment into injury prone players factor into that?

Tua & Phillips, love both players but they had college medical red flags by some teams in the draft, and injuries, albeit different ones, factored into both getting 5th year options exercised instead of early extensions.

Armstead, Wynn, and Chubb were all available because of constant health issues on their former teams.
 
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Fins were the 12th most injured team by games lost in 2023. We were actually a bit worse off in 2022.

Source

Are all injuries equally “bad luck” or does the organization’s investment into injury prone players factor into that?

Tua & Phillips, love both players but they had college medical red flags by some teams in the draft, which is factoring into both getting extensions.

Armstead, Wynn, and Chubb were all available because of constant health issues on their former teams.
Phillips injury was while riding a scooter or something in college, right? I cringed on Hard Knocks when Tyreek bought the whole team 🛴. Last thing JP needs
 
Phillips injury was while riding a scooter or something in college, right? I cringed on Hard Knocks when Tyreek bought the whole team 🛴. Last thing JP needs

Phillips had a concussion in 2017 and another in 2018 playing for UCLA. The second concussion was bad enough that he missed 8 games.

You’re referencing that he got hit in 2018 on his moped by a car that severely injury his wrist that needed two surgeries.

Source
 
Where the ball bounces and who is around when a fumble occurs is almost all luck.
Right. When the Steelers fumbled the ball into the end zone and Miami recovered it, it was a lucky break that the Official was from Pittsburgh and gave the ball back to the Steelers. :ponder: Why can't Miami get that kind of luck?
 
Right. When the Steelers fumbled the ball into the end zone and Miami recovered it, it was a lucky break that the Official was from Pittsburgh and gave the ball back to the Steelers. :ponder: Why can't Miami get that kind of luck?
I still don’t understand how Pitt basically got a “do over”. Horrible.
 
Right. When the Steelers fumbled the ball into the end zone and Miami recovered it, it was a lucky break that the Official was from Pittsburgh and gave the ball back to the Steelers. :ponder: Why can't Miami get that kind of luck?
Remember when Brady fumbled the ball in the red zone and the Fins recovered the ball wayyyyyy back... And then Vernon got called for a flag that I literally never heard of before... And instead of a takeaway, we got hit with a 15 yard penalty and an automatic 1st down.... Good times.
 
Here's another way to look at it to get my point across...

1 NFL game
=
~5 NHL games
=
~10 MLB games

In a season.

Mistakes, varience, pure ****ing luck is amplified.

Imagine a garbage goal in hockey costing you a 5 game losing streak by itself.

Or losing your star pitcher for 2 weeks and costing you a 30 game losing streak

Losing your starting QB for 4 weeks in the NFL would amount to a 5-15 stretch in the NHL.

There is 0 room for error in each NFL game. And many errors are random or close to it.
 
The only season that we’ve won the division since realignment in 2002 when Brady blew out his knee in 2008.

Did the Dolphins only get “lucky” because of Pats misfortune, and the Dolphins have been “unlucky” the other 20 years?
 
The only season that we’ve won the division since realignment in 2002 when Brady blew out his knee in 2008.

Did the Dolphins only get “lucky” because of Pats misfortune, and the Dolphins have been “unlucky” the other 20 years?
See this thread isnt about explaining why the Fins have sucked for the past 20 years.

It's about the variance in sports and how football is affected by it.

We're 7 pages in and so far, you seem to be the only one looking for an argument.

I'm not looking for an argument... I'm just a dude who likes to study games and how they work. I realize most people spend their time learning much more important things.

And so I feel like sharing my thoughts on my findings so that these fanatics, like me, might learn a concept or 2 from my time wasting endeavor.

It's become blantatly obvious that this subject isnt for you. And it's perfectly fine.

That being said, if you dont have anything intelligent to contribute on this subject. Just get the **** out.
 
* Variance: Imagine a doctor seeing many patients. They know that some patients will naturally get sick more often than others, due to genetics, lifestyle, or just random chance. This variation in health is like variance - the natural spread of outcomes around an average.

* Bad Luck: If a particular patient seems to get an unusual number of illnesses in a short time, the patient might say they have bad luck. But the doctor would likely view it as variance. They'd focus on understanding the underlying causes, not blaming chance.

Dolphins need a better doctor.
 
I can’t stand the “no excuses” bs. You are not winning a snow playoff game with your 3rd string rookie qb and you’re not winning a 0 degree playoff game without half your starters.
 
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