Spread: Even Steven

[roy_miami]

Dolphins went from getting +2.5 a few days ago to no spread for the game on the site I use (unless there is a glitch?). Looks like a lot of people are betting on the fins this week. Maybe the refs put a little coin on our team for a change...

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I took New England +1. That was available at the Hilton and my friend grabbed it for us.

There's a mixture of pick and New England -1 but that was the only Dolphins -1 that we saw. It's not atypical. I used to do that frequently at the Horseshoe when I was in charge of making the numbers, use a game that was pick-em or -1 everywhere and make the other side -1 if I had a strong opinion or statistical/situational angle that pointed to that team. It wasn't much of a risk because you couldn't get middled, only sided.

My formulas had New England as a play at -2.5 or lower. It's based on a team with a high long term history of winning suddenly thrown into a game with a second or third tier team, and the spread merely asks the winning team to do what it is accustomed to doing. The Patriots dominate division games.

Too much of an adjustment, IMO, particularly considering the Dolphins don't enjoy much of a home field edge. I would expect the line to move back toward the Patriots tomorrow. That's generally what happens at Sun Life in a competitively priced game, for the road team to draw the late money. It seldom fails.

I tend to agree with Daniel Jeremiah, who said yesterday on NFL Network that he thinks New England will win tomorrow but have trouble next week at Baltimore. The Ravens have a commanding home field edge. When a key player(s) is out due to injury or other reasons, it typically can be covered up in the first game but the problem shows up later.

Naturally this won't be popular here. But I'll still root for the Dolphins, even if I wager against them. I root for only a handful of teams but make thousands of wagers per year. No problem rooting for the Dolphins, Canes, Heat or USC when I bet against them. Only on the Canes sites am I attacked for that type of admission. Always kind of amusing, especially when you've got fans on those sites saying they are boycotting games in some type of protest over D'Onofrio the defensive coordinator. I guess it's smart and acceptable to whine and stay home but not to wager the other way.

 

[Shouright]

I took New England +1. That was available at the Hilton and my friend grabbed it for us.

There's a mixture of pick and New England -1 but that was the only Dolphins -1 that we saw. It's not atypical. I used to do that frequently at the Horseshoe when I was in charge of making the numbers, use a game that was pick-em or -1 everywhere and make the other side -1 if I had a strong opinion or statistical/situational angle that pointed to that team. It wasn't much of a risk because you couldn't get middled, only sided.

My formulas had New England as a play at -2.5 or lower. It's based on a team with a high long term history of winning suddenly thrown into a game with a second or third tier team, and the spread merely asks the winning team to do what it is accustomed to doing. The Patriots dominate division games.

Too much of an adjustment, IMO, particularly considering the Dolphins don't enjoy much of a home field edge. I would expect the line to move back toward the Patriots tomorrow. That's generally what happens at Sun Life in a competitively priced game, for the road team to draw the late money. It seldom fails.

I tend to agree with Daniel Jeremiah, who said yesterday on NFL Network that he thinks New England will win tomorrow but have trouble next week at Baltimore. The Ravens have a commanding home field edge. When a key player(s) is out due to injury or other reasons, it typically can be covered up in the first game but the problem shows up later.

Naturally this won't be popular here. But I'll still root for the Dolphins, even if I wager against them. I root for only a handful of teams but make thousands of wagers per year. No problem rooting for the Dolphins, Canes, Heat or USC when I bet against them. Only on the Canes sites am I attacked for that type of admission. Always kind of amusing, especially when you've got fans on those sites saying they are boycotting games in some type of protest over D'Onofrio the defensive coordinator. I guess it's smart and acceptable to whine and stay home but not to wager the other way.

Let's hope something like this happens again so you don't lose any money:

http://www.footballdb.com/boxscore/2009120614

 

[rrrrphin]

Awsi
Your betting/spread knowledge is uncanny
From one source that I have seen when spread was 2.5, they said 73% of money was flowing to Pats
How the ;?)$!!!! Can the line still drift to even or Miami-1?

 

[roy_miami]

The Patriots getting a point now, thats a 3.5 point swing since Tuesday. I was half serious when I said the refs may be putting coin on us this time and it'll be interesting to see if we get a phantom call or two in our favor.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Now moved to Miami -1 all over the place, after news spread of the two injured receivers.

Probably will tick higher tomorrow. Blanket injuries at one position is one thing that moves a line beyond where it otherwise would go.

 

[AL R]

Still at Miami -1 at least on the sportscenter app. this morning. This should be, if both teams play to form this year, a close nail bitter type of game. I expect a playoff atmosphere at the stadium, can't wait to head down and enjoy the atmosphere.