Statistical 2005 projects by team

[thedayafter]

For those with the time and the mentallity Football Outsiders offers their projections on the 2005 season.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=2854&cat=3

Worth a look as well

http://www.protrade.com/insight_auth03_article02.html

Explanation of Tables


Division: How often this team won division after simulating season 1,500 times.
Playoffs: How often this team made the playoffs after simulating season 1,500 times.
Mean Wins: Average wins for team based on DVOA projections and schedule strength.
Std Dev: This number represents how predictible the team is for 2005, according to the projection system. The lower the number, the more stable the projection. Jacksonville is the lowest team at 61. Arizona is the highest team at 115. (For math geeks, this is standard deviation of wins divided by mean wins, times 100. Arizona’s standard deviation was actually higher than its mean wins.)
Adjusted Offense: Projected level of offense, separated from defense, special teams, schedule, and luck, along with rank among the 32 teams.
Adjusted Defense: Same for defense.
Adjusted Special Teams: Same for special teams.
Total: Theoretically, point spread for this team if it played a perfectly average team on a neutral field, with rank among the 32 teams.
Schedule: Average DVOA of all 16 opponents, without considering home field. Ranked from hardest schedule (1: San Diego, 7.8%) to the easiest schedule (32: Seattle, -5.7%).

See chart on the site... it won't copy on here

 

[HysterikiLL]

They think NYJ will have such a good offense? Pfft.

 

[thedayafter]

This is a very soild site for stat based references... they ran the simulation 1500 times based on stats from 2000 to 2004.... I was actually encouraged by the report.

 

[billybojim]

who farted?

 

[ErroneousFlint]

For those with the time and the mentallity Football Outsiders offers their projections on the 2005 season.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=2854&cat=3

Worth a look as well

http://www.protrade.com/insight_auth03_article02.html

Explanation of Tables


Division: How often this team won division after simulating season 1,500 times.
Playoffs: How often this team made the playoffs after simulating season 1,500 times.
Mean Wins: Average wins for team based on DVOA projections and schedule strength.
Std Dev: This number represents how predictible the team is for 2005, according to the projection system. The lower the number, the more stable the projection. Jacksonville is the lowest team at 61. Arizona is the highest team at 115. (For math geeks, this is standard deviation of wins divided by mean wins, times 100. Arizona’s standard deviation was actually higher than its mean wins.)
Adjusted Offense: Projected level of offense, separated from defense, special teams, schedule, and luck, along with rank among the 32 teams.
Adjusted Defense: Same for defense.
Adjusted Special Teams: Same for special teams.
Total: Theoretically, point spread for this team if it played a perfectly average team on a neutral field, with rank among the 32 teams.
Schedule: Average DVOA of all 16 opponents, without considering home field. Ranked from hardest schedule (1: San Diego, 7.8%) to the easiest schedule (32: Seattle, -5.7%).

See chart on the site... it won't copy on here

it's definitely interesting but i trust that you can go round and round with numbers in any given direction. i feel tempted to hold it to it's predictions if you can refer to them as such but i don't put too much stock in playing the numbers game which is probably why i'm a full time loser but get a rush from the risk one takes being one.

 

[NorFlaFin]

When a team totally changes coaching staffs(Phins, 49ers) how are the stats figured?