Statistical analysis of performance of 1st round picks.

[Pauly]

I posted a similar thread a month or two back, but I have found a new and better source of information.

Taking the period 1967, the start of the AFL/NFL common draft, through to 1996, a period of thirty years. Looking at that period I charted the number of HOFers, number of probowlers, average length of career as a starter and busts and the average number of probowls each probowler was selected to.

For HOFers I have deemed players with 5 or more Probowls as HOFers in order to allow for players who's careers have finished recently but haven't been inducted yet. 5 PBs seems to be the starting point for inclusion in the hall with a few exceptions so I think I'm on reasonably safe ground to say that most players with 5 or more PBs will eventually make their way into the HOF.

I've labelled anyone who had less than three years as a starter a bust.

I've broken the picks into groups of 4 as when I did my data crunching that seemed to work out as the best way to group the picks.

1967 to 1996
#1 Overall
HOFers: 9
PBers: 19
Busts: 3
Avge seasons as starte: 8.7
Avge No of PBs selected to: 4.3

#2 Overall
HOFers: 9
PBers: 16
Busts: 5
Avge seasons as starter: 7.8
Avge No of PBs selected to: 4.7

#3 Overall
HOFers: 4
PBers: 19
Busts: 6
Avge seasons as starter: 7.6
Avge No of PBs selected to: 3.7

#4 Overall
HOFers: 12
PBers: 19
Busts: 6
Avge Seasons as starter: 7.8
Avge no of PBs selected to: 5.3

# 1-4 Overall as a group:
HOFers: 34
Pbers: 73
Busts: 20
Avge seasons as starter: 7.98
Avge No of PBs selected to: 4.50

# 5-8
HOFers: 13
Pbers: 54
Busts: 37
Avge seasons as starter: 6.37
Avge No of PBs selected to: 3.62

# 9-12
HOFers: 11
Pbers: 43
Busts: 38
Avge seasons as starter: 5.94
Avge No of PBs selected to: 3.45

# 13-16
HOFers: 10
Pbers: 41
Busts: 44
Avge seasons as starter: 5.71
Avge No of PBs selected to: 3.62

# 17 to 20
HOFers: 10
Pbers: 35
Busts: 43
Avge seasons as starter: 5.15
Avge No of PBs selected to: 3.31

# 21 to 24
HOFers: 6
Pbers: 33
Busts: 50
Avge seasons as starter: 4.96
Avge No of PBs selected to: 2.44

# 25 to 28
HOFers: 6
PBers: 22
Busts: 63
Avge seasons as starter: 4.44
Avge no of PBs selected to: 2.86

#29 to 32
HOFers: 6
PBers: 16
Busts: 65
Avge seasons as starter: 3.95
Avge no of PBs selected to: 3.04

Interesting trends.
1) The #4 overall slot seems to be the single best slot to be picking from. Theories anyone?
2) The best place to find HOF calibre players is in the first 4 picks.
3) The chance of finding a PB calibre player steadily drops the further back in the draft you go.
4) The chance of drafting a bust steadily increases the further back in the draft you go.
5) The chance of drafting a HOFer drops dramatically from the 4th overall pick, but then only slowly drops.

 

[Marino420TD]

Good research.

 

[NJ Dolphan]

I can name you three #1 pick busts since 1996: David Carr, Tim Couch, Alex Smith (and that's just off the top of my head).

An analysis that leaves out the past ten years, isn't going to be particularly telling.

 

[NJ Dolphan]

We can also add, Courtney Brown.

 

[Pauly]

I can name you three #1 pick busts since 1996: David Carr, Tim Couch, Alex Smith (and that's just off the top of my head).

An analysis that leaves out the past ten years, isn't going to be particularly telling.

OK we'll throw out 30 years of data just because we want to include 3 guys from an incomplete data set (the last 10 years). At this point the Jury is still out on Alex Smith, although it don't look good for him. Remember though that Jim Plunkett was considered a huge bust too early in his career, but he did manage to go an and wina Superbowl later in his career.

Of course all the other data showing that the later you go back inthe draft the less likley you are to find a quality player and more likely you are to find a bust is rendered null and void by three names.

I apologise for wasting your time with actual facts.