Statistical Benchmarks for QBs in the Modern NFL

[LarryLarry]

"There are new statistical benchmarks for quarterbacks.

The NFL is so pass-happy that our standards for statistical success have to be recalibrated.

It used to be that a 300-yard game, a 4,000-yard season, a 65 percent completion rate, and a 100 passer rating were marks of greatness. Now they are average.

Last weekend, 11 quarterbacks threw for 300 yards. Now 400 yards (reached by Prescott and Carr in Week 1) should be the benchmark for a big game.

In Week 1, 13 quarterbacks completed at least 70 percent of their passes. In 2020, three quarterbacks completed 70 percent of their passes for the season (Rodgers, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson), and 23 completed at least 65 percent. The minimum standard for a good performance now is 70 percent, and a great performance is 80 percent.

Last year, 12 quarterbacks threw for 4,000 yards. Now the standard should be 4,500 yards (five QBs reached it in 2020), and really, 5,000 yards, which has been achieved 12 times in history, is the real accomplishment.

Last week, 16 of 32 quarterbacks finished with a passer rating over 100 (the maximum is 158.3). The new standard of greatness should be 115, which was achieved by nine QBs last week."

Yes, you can spot trends after just one week of the NFL season - The Boston Globe

If it seems as though teams are passing more and running less, it's because they are, perhaps at a historic rate.

www.bostonglobe.com

 

[circumstances]

In before this is moved to General NFL

 

[Dolph N.Fan]

In before this is moved to General NFL

Good points...if Larry is talking about how people should view Tua....sounds like even if Tua puts up "good numbers" they'll be like well they played 17 games, those really aren't good numbers. 4k passing yards and 30 TDs in a season really hasn't been impressive for about the last 10 years now.

 

[royalshank]

This topic is well understood by the fans of yore. Pre rule changes in 2007, neither Brady nor Brees ever hit 30 TDs.

I remember when Kenny Anderson hit 70% in 1981 and it broke a record. Now 70% as pointed out above is almost a baseline.

John Elway’s career QBR is 77. Imagine a 77 today? You’d have to try really hard to be that bad.

Comparing today’s stats with those of not-that-long-ago is filled non-starters. This happens as all sports evolve. I think the thing that makes this one stand out so much is how quickly it changed post 2007.

This is also why we prefer to get our running backs from the Dollar Store. They barley matter - as long as they can catch.

 

[Digital]

This is good stuff. The new meta of every team running tons of short passes inflates the QB stats tremendously, and continues the progressive devaluation of the running game. With the extreme emphasis on RAC, we're seeing this bubble-screen surge everywhere, and offenses banking on a WR to break a slant for chunk yardage even more than occasionally threatening downfield. The new age LB's are all LB/SS hybrids tasked with coverage underneath, which is why the Derek Henry types are devastating defenses. QB's stats are dominated with these short routes. But for teams to win, they still need a real threat of a downfield game to hold the safety high. QB's who have deep threats--such as Will Fuller, Jalen Waddle, Albert Wilson, and Jakeem Grant--will have a much easier time getting WR's separation underneath.

This is ideal for Tua. He has a decent long passing game, and a very good short passing game. It's those intermediate throws that require more arm and precision than he typically has. But if we can develop an offense that sprinkles in the long pass to keep the defensive coverages honest and eats off of a steady diet of short passes, Tua can really shine. It complements his game well and hides his deficiencies against most defenses. But good defenses and good DC's will force him to throw those intermediate routes ... so Tua absolutely needs to be working on improving those throws.

The new QB metrics are real, but they do not show the whole picture. Guys like Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen can make all the throws, are good in the pocket, can take a hit and can scramble to make plays out of the pocket and with their feet. Literally, even good defenses need to pick their poison. For Tua, he needs to shore up the intermediate throw hole in his game somehow, and fingers crossed, he will. So far we've seen a bit more velocity on Tua's throws compared to last year .... but his arm isn't going to get any stronger, so we need him to be precise on those crossing routes and our OC needs to be clinical in our play calls. But so far ... we're still seeing improvement, and that's great to see.

Fins up!

 

[Dolph N.Fan]

This topic is well understood by the fans of yore. Pre rule changes in 2007, neither Brady nor Brees ever hit 30 TDs.

I remember when Kenny Anderson hit 70% in 1981 and it broke a record. Now 70% as pointed out above is almost a baseline.

John Elway’s career QBR is 77. Imagine a 77 today? You’d have to try really hard to be that bad.

Comparing today’s stats with those of not-that-long-ago is filled non-starters. This happens as all sports evolve. I think the thing that makes this one stand out so much is how quickly it changed post 2007.

This is also why we prefer to get our running backs from the Dollar Store. They barley matter - as long as they can catch.

A 1000 yards a season isn’t even that impressive any more for RBs and especially WRs. With a 17th game it’s basically just under 60 ypg

 

[superphin]

"There are new statistical benchmarks for quarterbacks.

The NFL is so pass-happy that our standards for statistical success have to be recalibrated.

It used to be that a 300-yard game, a 4,000-yard season, a 65 percent completion rate, and a 100 passer rating were marks of greatness. Now they are average.

Last weekend, 11 quarterbacks threw for 300 yards. Now 400 yards (reached by Prescott and Carr in Week 1) should be the benchmark for a big game.

In Week 1, 13 quarterbacks completed at least 70 percent of their passes. In 2020, three quarterbacks completed 70 percent of their passes for the season (Rodgers, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson), and 23 completed at least 65 percent. The minimum standard for a good performance now is 70 percent, and a great performance is 80 percent.

Last year, 12 quarterbacks threw for 4,000 yards. Now the standard should be 4,500 yards (five QBs reached it in 2020), and really, 5,000 yards, which has been achieved 12 times in history, is the real accomplishment.

Last week, 16 of 32 quarterbacks finished with a passer rating over 100 (the maximum is 158.3). The new standard of greatness should be 115, which was achieved by nine QBs last week."

Yes, you can spot trends after just one week of the NFL season - The Boston Globe

If it seems as though teams are passing more and running less, it's because they are, perhaps at a historic rate.

www.bostonglobe.com

A 4,000-yard season, with 65% completion % and a 100 QB rating is still an impressive season when put together and I would add 30+ TDs. Last year only 7 QB's matched these criteria. Rodgers, Allen, Wilson, Mahomes, Watson Brady, and Cousins. Out of all those QB's I would say only Cousins is not an elite QB.

Sure some QB's might hit some of these benchmarks but not many hit all the benchmarks.

In 2019 only Russel Wilson hit all 4 statistical benchmarks.

In 2018 it was Mahomes, Rivers, and Matt Ryan.

In 2017 only Brady.

 

[superphin]

This topic is well understood by the fans of yore. Pre rule changes in 2007, neither Brady nor Brees ever hit 30 TDs.

I remember when Kenny Anderson hit 70% in 1981 and it broke a record. Now 70% as pointed out above is almost a baseline.

John Elway’s career QBR is 77. Imagine a 77 today? You’d have to try really hard to be that bad.

Comparing today’s stats with those of not-that-long-ago is filled non-starters. This happens as all sports evolve. I think the thing that makes this one stand out so much is how quickly it changed post 2007.

This is also why we prefer to get our running backs from the Dollar Store. They barley matter - as long as they can catch.

I believe the rule change was in the 2004 off-season after the Colts lost to the Pats in the 2003 AFC Championship game. Immediately after the rule Peyton Manning throws for a then career-high 49 TDs in 2004.

Much like the Mel Blount rule of 1977 changed passing in the late '70s and 80's, the Ty Law rule opened it up even more.

 

[AdamD13]

I believe the rule change was in the 2004 off-season after the Colts lost to the Pats in the 2003 AFC Championship game. Immediately after the rule Peyton Manning throws for a then career-high 49 TDs in 2004.

Much like the Mel Blount rule of 1977 changed passing in the late '70s and 80's, the Ty Law rule opened it up even more.

The rule change was put in place in 1978.

In 2004 the refs were instructed to enforce it more severely which they did.

 

[royalshank]

I believe the rule change was in the 2004 off-season after the Colts lost to the Pats in the 2003 AFC Championship game. Immediately after the rule Peyton Manning throws for a then career-high 49 TDs in 2004.

Much like the Mel Blount rule of 1977 changed passing in the late '70s and 80's, the Ty Law rule opened it up even more.

You’re right. Didn’t they tweak it in 2007 too ?

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson aren’t meeting these benchmarks.

They’ve thrown 9 interceptions so far today collectively.

 

[Kebo]

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson aren’t meeting these benchmarks.

They’ve thrown 9 interceptions so far today collectively.

They all lost too, so did Herbert. Mac and Fields won though.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

They all lost too, so did Herbert. Mac and Fields won though.

Tua was 11/20 for 83 yards 1 TD and 0 INT’s coming off a hip injury while his oline was getting mauled against Denver last year before he got pulled from the game.

Trevor passed for 3.6 YPA and threw 2 picks yesterday against Denver as a rookie. That’s how you know everybody is full of s—t.

Burrow threw 3 picks on 3 consecutive passes yesterday against the Bears. They acted like Tua was the only QB that’s ever had a 3 INT game last year against the Bills while his receivers were falling all over the place.

That’s how you know everybody is full of s—t.

 

[Kebo]

Tua was 11/20 for 83 yards 1 TD and 0 INT’s coming off a hip injury while his oline was getting mauled against Denver last year before he got pulled from the game.

Trevor passed for 3.6 YPA and threw 2 picks yesterday against Denver as a rookie. That’s how you know everybody is full of s—t.

Burrow threw 3 picks on 3 consecutive passes yesterday against the Bears. They acted like Tua was the only QB that’s ever had a 3 INT game last year against the Bills while his receivers were falling all over the place.

That’s how you know everybody is full of s—t.

Flores has done a crap job hiring offensive coaches.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Flores has done a crap job hiring offensive coaches.

He’ll be coaching linebackers for Saban soon. I tried to tell y’all that last year.