FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
By Allen Trieu
April 12, 2005
In an internet draft culture where conformity has become prevalent, it is now time to go out on a limb, go balls out and go with my gut feelings, some may be right, others may be dead wrong...but here they are:
Gut Feeling: Every mock maker will all strike out together on at least 1 selection
That's right, there will be one 1st Round pick that NO ONE predicts. That's just the way it is. We argue over these mocks, over analyze them, read them over and over again and in the end, no one ever gets 100% right. Some picks just can't be predicted. But to put these mock drafts in perspective, I offer simply a question rather than a lesson. What carries greater significance? The mock which predicts Calvin Pace to Arizona in the 1st Round correctly when no one else did....or the mock that projects Pace in the 4th Round because he isn't worth a first day pick...it depends on what you want, accuracy in April '05, or in three years.
For Real - Guys Who Will Make An Impact
1. Mark Clayton
What are Mark Clayton's weaknessess? It shouldn't even be plural, he has one and it's his size. But he has something special in the open field. He's not as fast as Jerome Mathis, but he's better at making people miss. He doesn't have the size of Mike Williams, but he's just as tough. He may not quite have Braylon's hops, but he can catch the ball in traffic just as well. Braylon has had a few inconsistency issues, Troy Williamson is mostly potential, Mike Williams took a year off, the surest thing at WR in this draft is Clayton and he'll make teams sorry. Bet on it.
2. Derrick Johnson
Dropping? It seems like the popular talk is that Johnson is sliding into the early teens, why? He is only going to get bigger and stronger and he has the inate ability to make plays. He's a ballhawk and the best sideline to sideline defender in this entire draft. It is a popular perception that this draft lacks star power, Johnson has the ability to become a star and he has been one for four years in college. Derrick Johnson will start for an NFL team this season and he should be right there in the rookie of the year chase.
3. David Baas
Baas was a steady player for every year he was at Michigan. He has better athleticism than advertised and he can play both Guard and Center. He immediately adjusted to center and was as dominant there as a senior as he was at guard his junior season. The current buzz is that Baas may be sliding into the late 2nd or even the early 3rd, if that turns out to be true on draft day, one team will get an absolute steal and 31 others will be kicking themselves.
4. Mike Patterson
I've been calling Patterson the "Dwight Freeney" of defensive tackles, because he is undersized, but he can be unblockable at times. He is quick and proved throughout his college career that he could get past much bigger linemen. In the right system, Patterson will step right in and make an immediate impact.
5. Justin Miller
Miller has been lost in the shuffle a bit, but he has great ability. He has the speed and the physicality to play in the NFL. Truth be told, Miller and Pacman Jones are actually very similar, but for some reason Jones is being projected in the top 10, and Miller is being talked about as a late 1st Rounder. A lot of it is hype, and Miller is receiving very little, but he is poised to be one of the best corners to come out of this class.
BUYER BEWARE - not that they'll be busts, but these hype machines have been on overtime lately
1. Adrian McPherson
There is a lot of hooplah over him after he exhibited his arm strength and athleticism, but this guy still hasn't played 11-11 football in a long time. Yeah Kurt Warner and Tommy Maddox made the transitions, but only after playing in Europe or XFL first and really, how well are those guys doing now? There is talk of McPherson going as high as the 2nd Round, that is ludicrous. With few teams needing QBs, expect Charlie Frye and Jason Campbell to possibly slide into the late 2nd themselves. McPherson is too unproven to be even a 1st day pick, let alone 2nd Round. Some team will take a chance on him though and likely earlier than they should because of those athletic skills, but they must be cautious. Many say the knock on McPherson is character, that is not my issue. He's fine in the off field department. It's making reads and adjusting to the NFL after only playing 1 season of college ball that worries me.
2. Troy Williamson
Williamson is another player who has received a lot of attention in the post season. He's extremely explosive, but the NFL is a different animal and he will have a tougher time just blowing by people. He will has more to work on than Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams or Mark Clayton. He will need more time than those players and as a result, this talk of him leapfrogging Edwards and/or Williams and becoming a top 7-10 selection is a bit of a headscratcher. Like McPherson, potential will get Williamson drafted before he should, but teams be wary, he might not make an instant impact. Williamson is better off going to a team with proven receivers who can draw coverage away from him and allow him to run free, if forced to be a go to guy early on, Williamson may struggle.
3. Pacman Jones
Just when and how did Pacman get ahead of Antrel Rolle? Making Jones the first CB selected could be the draft's first big surprise. Teams have fallen in love with Jones' speed and his aggressive style, but it is that aggressiveness that could get him into trouble. He has the attitude you want in a corner as he is very competitive, but Jones wasn't the complete shutdown corner he's been made out to be of late. He had a good college career, but not an outstanding one. His game does project well to the NFL level, but he hasn't proven himself just yet and that makes him a risk, especially if chosen in the top 10 where many have him.
4. Chris Canty
Canty was a great prospect before his injury, but that knee injury and a year off has to worry some teams. Canty is a high risk/reward player who will probably end up going in the 2nd Round, but the injury would scare me too much to take him on the first day.
5. Matt Jones
He's the hot name right now, but let's remember that he is changing positions. Yes he's a big guy and a great athlete, but it is hard to project into the 1st Round when he is learning a new position. It worked for Adam Archuleta, Brian Urlacher and Antwaan Randle-El, so Jones has some history on his side, but teams who hear the hype and don't want to lose Jones may end up taking him higher than they should.
WILL GO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
Brandon Browner, CB/S, Oregon State
Remember when he was a 1st Round pick? Yeah, that 4.7 hurt, but Michael Clayton ran a 4.7 last year and he slid to 15th Overall (sarcasm).
WILL GO LOWER THAN EXPECTED
Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State
He just doesn't stand out on film to me. There is potential here but the mid-round projections are high. Johnson will be a late 1st Rounder, maybe an early 2.
SURPRISE 1st ROUNDER
Marcus Johnson to the Steelers at 30. They need line depth and they really like Johnson. This could be similar to when they took Kendall Simmons a few years back, Simmons was projected as a mid 2nd rounder then much like Johnson is now. Could history repeat?
ANOTHER GUT FEELING: Adam Kieft will be a Bear in the 3rd/4th Round. His former line coach, Harold Goodwin is now an assitant with the Bears. The Bears have a need at OT, but will likely fill other needs first, Kieft is a massive sleeper and could be the Bears' pick.
BJ SAMS anyone? - This year's undrafted return man marvel: John McPherson, CB, Central Missouri State
TOM BRADY? - This year's late round QB steal: Stefan LeFors, Louisville
CECIL COLLINS? This year's player who some team will take a chance on and lose with: Chris Henry, WR, West Virginia
HOW ABOUT TERRELL DAVIS? - Oft-injured college back becomes late round gem? Frank Gore, RB, Miami
