Study: Why RB Over WR was the way to Go; Plus, Saban quote | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Study: Why RB Over WR was the way to Go; Plus, Saban quote

Da 'Fins

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Apr 29, 2003
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This from a friend:

Looking at the draft from 1994-2003:

*The following QB’s were selected in the top 10 of their draft:

C. Palmer, B. Leftwich, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, Mcnabb, A. Smith, P. Manning, R. Reaf, McNair, K. Collins, H. Shueler and T. Dilfer.

14 QB’s, 7 of which (Collins, McNair, Manning, McNabb, Vick, Leftwich & Palmer) look to be very good to great players. You could swap Carr for Collins in this group if you wanted too. That means that your chances of finding a franchise QB selected in the top 10 is 50%.

**The following RB’s were taken in the top 10 over the same time period:

Tomlinson, J. Lewis, T. Jones, E. James, R. Williams, C. Enis, F. Taylor, L. Phillips, T. Biakabatuka, K. Carter and M. Faulk.

11 RB’s, 6 of which (Tomlinson, Lewis, James, Williams, Taylor & Faulk) should be considered franchise RB’s (yes I’m including Ricky. He did have 5 seasons over 1,000yards). That means your chances of finding a franchise RB in the top 10 are 55%.

***The following WR’s went in the top ten during the same period:

C. Rogers, A. Johnson, D. Terrell, K. Robinson, P. Warrick, P. Burress, T. Taylor, T. Holt, D. Boston, I Hilliard, Key. Johnson, T. Glenn, M. Westbrook, J. Galloway and JJ Stokes.

15 WR’s, of which 3 (A. Johnson, T. Holt and Key. Johnson), maybe 4 (Burress or Boston??), are franchise WR’s. Only 5 are still with the team that drafted them. Or in other words, you had about a 20% chance of hitting pay dirt with a WR.

And, Saban said:

"Well you know we did a study of all that, and actually found that the receivers were the guys that, if you looked at the top ten or the first round draft picks in the last ten years - there were like 50 some guys, I can’t give you the exact numbers, but this information is available - only like six of those guys produced more than 1,000 yards out of 58 in their rookie year. So there was really some evidence that maybe receivers were a lot more of a risk to take than running backs were. And if you look at the running backs, whether it be Ricky Williams, Edgerain James, Thomlinson at San Diego, Jamal Lewis, those guys have pretty much been what everybody thought they were. And have contributed to their team in the same kind of way. So we felt like this was an outstanding pick for us. It was the best player available to us and it satisfied a real need for our football team, and the versatility of this guy gives us more than just a running back and I think everybody should really have some appreciation for the kind of receiver this guy is and the other things that he can do as a blocker for our team."
This was copied right out of his press transcript.
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