keithjackson
junkyard dolphin
Welcome to the best game of the week, Dolphins at Lions, arguably pitting the NFL's top two defenses against each other for bragging as the world's best. Perhaps we'll finally see what's the most accurate indicators: yards/game (DET #1 v MIA #3) or yards/attempt (MIA #1 v DET #3); DET #1 scoring def/year or MIA #1 scoring def/last 3 games; and the matchup of what I'd call the best rush defense in Detroit versus the best pass defense in Miami. Also, while both DLines are top five, Detroit has the slight edge in the interior and Miami slightly on the exterior. Compiling plaudits despite playing the likes of Brees, Brady, Rivers, Eli, Cutler, Newton, Ryan and Rodgers(x2), this has all the makings of a close and low-scoring brawl. But don't tell that to a Dolphins team averaging 30 points/game over the last five games, or a Lions team welcoming back Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush after a perfectly timed bye. These two top ten drafted QBs will fight back against the notion this will be a defensive clinic with all the pluck of talented underdogs. This marquee matchup sees two contenders vying to make a statement with their fourth straight victory.
First off let's correct a misnomer, the MVP of the Lions' season is absolutely Golden Tate, the current #4 WR in the NFL. While the DLine is talented, Tate has single-handedly put them in position to win week after week, and without him this is a .500 team. He is a magician with the ball in his hands, displaying the best cutting ability of any WR in the game. He's proved to be the only big play threat for a Detroit team that has the second fewest big plays on offense in the NFL (14 rush 17 pass). He's great in tight spaces, takes perfect angles, and is clutch. The only weakness in his game is being able to win the contested ball; if you lay the wood on him as he makes a catch he will probably drop it. I'd send Delmas and Wilson to smack him all game and see if they can exploit that vulnerability into hesitation. Conversely, Calvin Johnson is the toughest WR you'll ever see, and obviously the best in the game if healthy, but that's a big IF. I honestly don't know what to expect from him this week, after injuring his ankle in Week 3, catching the ball only twice in Week 4, and only notching his first catch in the third quarter of Week 5 before a reaggrivation that's kept him out since. We all know with Koa Misi how lingering these ankle injuries can be, and how successfully a player can return to form. If Megatron is 100%, this is the best WR pair the Fins will face all year. Then again, making invisible men of Chicago's dynamic duo, this is the best secondary Johnson and Tate will cross as well. Our defense excels in coverage, and even moreso, in discipline. The benefit of having a veteran DB corps is a dearth of brainfarts, and the teamwork of being in the right spot will never be more important than this week.
The good news is Matt Stafford is not as good as you think. Yes, he's got a super strong arm and his deep ball is miles ahead of Tannehill's. (Plus he doesn't have the up-and-down weeks that RT17 has hopefully put behind him.) Otherwise, Ryan is superior is every other facet: intermediate & short passing, extending plays, running, and, most importantly, accuracy. Stafford's accuracy is consistently mediocre in all situations, especially in his intermediate passing. While not totally his fault, the short passing game, particularly dump offs in the flat, results in a humorous amount of drops (and one-hoppers). He shows no elusively; after watching five games, I don't think I saw him both elude a defender and complete the pass in the same play. (If he does, it's rare.) He's average: no elite strengths and no damning weaknesses. (His only true weakness this year may be in the redzone, where his 83.5 rating is 7th-worst.) I haven't seen any throws that made me say WOW, but he doesn't make bone-headed decisions either. In fact, he's probably thrown the ball away more than any other QB this year. With the pressure we bring, I fully expect him to throw the ball away a dozen times on Sunday. Also, while he usually throws the ball to the right person, he can be hurried into inaccuracy pretty easily, especially when the rush forces him to jostle side-to-side instead of climbing the pocket.
Between that and one of the league's worst running games, it actually seems like Detroit's offense is always working with just two downs. J Bell is a slow, plodding runner that we should handle as easily as we did Eddie Lacy. Reggie Bush, while more dangerous, is relying on smarts and technique instead of pure talent as he has clearly lost a step, and we could expect even less coming off an injury. Detroit is averaging 3.1 yards/attempt (#31) and 79.6 y/game (#31), and those stats should not improve against a stout MIA DLine. Also, it's still unclear what group of TEs will take the field this week, but it really doesn't matter as the unit as a whole has not had an impact this year. Their Oline is bottom five according to the stats considering the rush average, and the fact they've allowed 24 sacks (fifth-worst). (FYI, they just blanked Atlanta last week who has a league low seven sacks on the season - is that a good or bad sign?) However, the eyeball test doesn't agree with the stats. They are average, and I think the poor results have more to do with inadequate RBs and a QB that can't elude the rush. (They may be getting their RT back this week too.) Still, our pass rush should be as effective as always and, without a run game, we should feast on a one dimensional offense who's OTs are much worse than our DEs. The only other time they played a top five DLine (Bills) they surrendered six sacks and amassed 49 yards rushing. But don't get ahead of yourself, that ended up being a game they totally could've - and should've- won, and if weren't for a historically hideous kicking game, they would've. And honestly, we didn't do any better against BUF, KC, or JAX's Dlines. In fact, MIA and DET have combined to go 0-3 when playing top five defenses so far on the season.
And, oh yea, Detroit has the BEST defense in football right now. It's not a toss-up; Miami had a had to chance to be #1 on the final drive against GB, but they couldn't do what #1 does. Now they have another shot, but they're gonna have to outplay a unit that piles strength upon strength. While BUF and JAX may be more disruptive, the Lion's Dline is overall more solid. I'm convinced they secretly play with 14 men on the field, swarming from sideline-to-sideline. Remove all slow-developing plays, stretch plays, plays behind the LOS, and plays that rely on trying to "juke" your way to yards from the playbook; they won't work. Suh, Mosley and Fairley are the only other DT trio that can contest ours, consistently pushing back every Oline they face. (What will the drop off be without Nick?) With the NFL's best rush defense, their interior should provide our running game a long day. (The only other time they faced a top five running game, the Jets ran for 132 yards and 4.9 average, but I think NYJ match up better against them.) Tough runners do better than fast runners. My biggest concern is their NFL-best ability to stuff 16.5% of runs because, despite our top five attack, we are stuffed on a sixth-worst 10.9%. Our run game is boom-or-bust, countering 25 stuffed runs with 31 ten yard-plus runs (#4), but DET has only allowed 16 of those (#3). I question how susceptible they are to the read option and the legs of Ryan Tannehill. A small sample against Cam Newton, including yards redacted by penalty, showed glimpses of vulnerability and think Ryan should be able to continue his running streak. However, especially with Lamar Miller's uncertain status, I don't foresee either team controlling the game on the ground. An inability to run should give us fits with third-and-longs, as the Lions have the the #2 third down defense (32%).
The DET secondary is opportunistic, good tacklers, and almost impossible to beat in one-on-one situations, but if you're going to beat the Lions it's got to be in the air. Both offenses throw short passes with low YATC, DET 5.92 yards/pass (#22) and MIA 4.79 (#28) in the air, relying on YAC, DET 6.43 yards/rec (#4) and MIA 5.92 (#9). However, DET's defense is allowing 125.6 yards/game of YAC (#20) and MIA 111.1 (#7). The YAC battle could decide this game. I actually like our chances against their pass rush, which is not that productive. Ansah leads their team with only four hurries and 4.5 sacks, and our tackles are playing all-world. In fact they total 23 sacks (#9) and 12 TOs (#17), but 6 sacks and 4 TOs came against Minnesota. The key to this game will be Bill Lazor, who spurned the Lions' offer to become their OC this offseason in order to join the Dolphins. When you can't out-talent them, you've got to out-smart them. While they are money on covering sideline routes, they have a weakness in the intermediate middle, particularly on slant routes. I also think you could have luck scheming moving pockets or quick throws to the edge with blockers in front (like that trips formation we love). This is the week to use your bag of tricks. If there was any faith in the deep ball, Wallace does match up well against this secondary. Play the game like its a two-minute drill, keep the pace quick, and rely on Tannehill's ability to throw lasers. Of the eight QBs Detroit has played, four have recorded ratings better than their average and four worse. To win this game, we need Ryan Tannehill to keep playing well.
Other Notables With a defensive game difficult to run in and with a lot of short passes, this could come down to Special Teams. The highlight of MIA's ST unit is the return game, but DET should negate that by boasting one of the league's best punters and kicking touchbacks 77.14% (#3). Miami's coverage unit is the 3rd-worst against both punts and kickoffs, and should only get worse without its best player, Michael Thomas. the Lions have a very capable returner, posting a 30.9 average starting field position (#4). The Fins' average starting field position will be interesting to watch, as they average an NFL-best at the 33.6 yardline and the Lions force an NFL second-best 24.2 yardline. DET has the edge if it comes down to STs, ignoring an abysmal 47.4% FG kicking (they've had three kickers, and their current, Prater, is 5/7). On the other hand, perhaps it'll come down to turnovers, as many close games do. If so, the Dolphins should have the edge with +9 differential over the last three weeks (the Dolphins have a remarkable +55 point differential off TOs (#1)). Still, the other key to this game may be the third quarter, a true bout of Strength v. Strength. Coming out of halftime adjustments, MIA is scoring 11.8 points in Q3 (#1) and DET is only allowing 3 points (#2).
Prediction The Lions are amongst the league leaders in slower, 10+ play and five-minute drives, whereas the Dolphins should rely on a faster tempo to keep the defense off balance. Both offenses should have trouble dictating the script, with running yards scarce and defenses dominating. While the Dolphins have the more prolific offense in yards/first downs/points, Detroit has showed the tenacity to overcome 21- and 13-point deficits in huge fourth quarter comebacks the last two weeks. Ultimately, I have to pick the Dolphins to WIN. BUF and KC showed the key to unlocking the Miami defense is by establishing the run, and the Lions just don't have the running game to do that. On the other hand, the key to unlocking the Detroit defense is quick intermediate passing in the middle of the field, and that just happens to be Ryan Tannehill's specialty.
MIA 20 DET 16
First off let's correct a misnomer, the MVP of the Lions' season is absolutely Golden Tate, the current #4 WR in the NFL. While the DLine is talented, Tate has single-handedly put them in position to win week after week, and without him this is a .500 team. He is a magician with the ball in his hands, displaying the best cutting ability of any WR in the game. He's proved to be the only big play threat for a Detroit team that has the second fewest big plays on offense in the NFL (14 rush 17 pass). He's great in tight spaces, takes perfect angles, and is clutch. The only weakness in his game is being able to win the contested ball; if you lay the wood on him as he makes a catch he will probably drop it. I'd send Delmas and Wilson to smack him all game and see if they can exploit that vulnerability into hesitation. Conversely, Calvin Johnson is the toughest WR you'll ever see, and obviously the best in the game if healthy, but that's a big IF. I honestly don't know what to expect from him this week, after injuring his ankle in Week 3, catching the ball only twice in Week 4, and only notching his first catch in the third quarter of Week 5 before a reaggrivation that's kept him out since. We all know with Koa Misi how lingering these ankle injuries can be, and how successfully a player can return to form. If Megatron is 100%, this is the best WR pair the Fins will face all year. Then again, making invisible men of Chicago's dynamic duo, this is the best secondary Johnson and Tate will cross as well. Our defense excels in coverage, and even moreso, in discipline. The benefit of having a veteran DB corps is a dearth of brainfarts, and the teamwork of being in the right spot will never be more important than this week.
The good news is Matt Stafford is not as good as you think. Yes, he's got a super strong arm and his deep ball is miles ahead of Tannehill's. (Plus he doesn't have the up-and-down weeks that RT17 has hopefully put behind him.) Otherwise, Ryan is superior is every other facet: intermediate & short passing, extending plays, running, and, most importantly, accuracy. Stafford's accuracy is consistently mediocre in all situations, especially in his intermediate passing. While not totally his fault, the short passing game, particularly dump offs in the flat, results in a humorous amount of drops (and one-hoppers). He shows no elusively; after watching five games, I don't think I saw him both elude a defender and complete the pass in the same play. (If he does, it's rare.) He's average: no elite strengths and no damning weaknesses. (His only true weakness this year may be in the redzone, where his 83.5 rating is 7th-worst.) I haven't seen any throws that made me say WOW, but he doesn't make bone-headed decisions either. In fact, he's probably thrown the ball away more than any other QB this year. With the pressure we bring, I fully expect him to throw the ball away a dozen times on Sunday. Also, while he usually throws the ball to the right person, he can be hurried into inaccuracy pretty easily, especially when the rush forces him to jostle side-to-side instead of climbing the pocket.
Between that and one of the league's worst running games, it actually seems like Detroit's offense is always working with just two downs. J Bell is a slow, plodding runner that we should handle as easily as we did Eddie Lacy. Reggie Bush, while more dangerous, is relying on smarts and technique instead of pure talent as he has clearly lost a step, and we could expect even less coming off an injury. Detroit is averaging 3.1 yards/attempt (#31) and 79.6 y/game (#31), and those stats should not improve against a stout MIA DLine. Also, it's still unclear what group of TEs will take the field this week, but it really doesn't matter as the unit as a whole has not had an impact this year. Their Oline is bottom five according to the stats considering the rush average, and the fact they've allowed 24 sacks (fifth-worst). (FYI, they just blanked Atlanta last week who has a league low seven sacks on the season - is that a good or bad sign?) However, the eyeball test doesn't agree with the stats. They are average, and I think the poor results have more to do with inadequate RBs and a QB that can't elude the rush. (They may be getting their RT back this week too.) Still, our pass rush should be as effective as always and, without a run game, we should feast on a one dimensional offense who's OTs are much worse than our DEs. The only other time they played a top five DLine (Bills) they surrendered six sacks and amassed 49 yards rushing. But don't get ahead of yourself, that ended up being a game they totally could've - and should've- won, and if weren't for a historically hideous kicking game, they would've. And honestly, we didn't do any better against BUF, KC, or JAX's Dlines. In fact, MIA and DET have combined to go 0-3 when playing top five defenses so far on the season.
And, oh yea, Detroit has the BEST defense in football right now. It's not a toss-up; Miami had a had to chance to be #1 on the final drive against GB, but they couldn't do what #1 does. Now they have another shot, but they're gonna have to outplay a unit that piles strength upon strength. While BUF and JAX may be more disruptive, the Lion's Dline is overall more solid. I'm convinced they secretly play with 14 men on the field, swarming from sideline-to-sideline. Remove all slow-developing plays, stretch plays, plays behind the LOS, and plays that rely on trying to "juke" your way to yards from the playbook; they won't work. Suh, Mosley and Fairley are the only other DT trio that can contest ours, consistently pushing back every Oline they face. (What will the drop off be without Nick?) With the NFL's best rush defense, their interior should provide our running game a long day. (The only other time they faced a top five running game, the Jets ran for 132 yards and 4.9 average, but I think NYJ match up better against them.) Tough runners do better than fast runners. My biggest concern is their NFL-best ability to stuff 16.5% of runs because, despite our top five attack, we are stuffed on a sixth-worst 10.9%. Our run game is boom-or-bust, countering 25 stuffed runs with 31 ten yard-plus runs (#4), but DET has only allowed 16 of those (#3). I question how susceptible they are to the read option and the legs of Ryan Tannehill. A small sample against Cam Newton, including yards redacted by penalty, showed glimpses of vulnerability and think Ryan should be able to continue his running streak. However, especially with Lamar Miller's uncertain status, I don't foresee either team controlling the game on the ground. An inability to run should give us fits with third-and-longs, as the Lions have the the #2 third down defense (32%).
The DET secondary is opportunistic, good tacklers, and almost impossible to beat in one-on-one situations, but if you're going to beat the Lions it's got to be in the air. Both offenses throw short passes with low YATC, DET 5.92 yards/pass (#22) and MIA 4.79 (#28) in the air, relying on YAC, DET 6.43 yards/rec (#4) and MIA 5.92 (#9). However, DET's defense is allowing 125.6 yards/game of YAC (#20) and MIA 111.1 (#7). The YAC battle could decide this game. I actually like our chances against their pass rush, which is not that productive. Ansah leads their team with only four hurries and 4.5 sacks, and our tackles are playing all-world. In fact they total 23 sacks (#9) and 12 TOs (#17), but 6 sacks and 4 TOs came against Minnesota. The key to this game will be Bill Lazor, who spurned the Lions' offer to become their OC this offseason in order to join the Dolphins. When you can't out-talent them, you've got to out-smart them. While they are money on covering sideline routes, they have a weakness in the intermediate middle, particularly on slant routes. I also think you could have luck scheming moving pockets or quick throws to the edge with blockers in front (like that trips formation we love). This is the week to use your bag of tricks. If there was any faith in the deep ball, Wallace does match up well against this secondary. Play the game like its a two-minute drill, keep the pace quick, and rely on Tannehill's ability to throw lasers. Of the eight QBs Detroit has played, four have recorded ratings better than their average and four worse. To win this game, we need Ryan Tannehill to keep playing well.
Other Notables With a defensive game difficult to run in and with a lot of short passes, this could come down to Special Teams. The highlight of MIA's ST unit is the return game, but DET should negate that by boasting one of the league's best punters and kicking touchbacks 77.14% (#3). Miami's coverage unit is the 3rd-worst against both punts and kickoffs, and should only get worse without its best player, Michael Thomas. the Lions have a very capable returner, posting a 30.9 average starting field position (#4). The Fins' average starting field position will be interesting to watch, as they average an NFL-best at the 33.6 yardline and the Lions force an NFL second-best 24.2 yardline. DET has the edge if it comes down to STs, ignoring an abysmal 47.4% FG kicking (they've had three kickers, and their current, Prater, is 5/7). On the other hand, perhaps it'll come down to turnovers, as many close games do. If so, the Dolphins should have the edge with +9 differential over the last three weeks (the Dolphins have a remarkable +55 point differential off TOs (#1)). Still, the other key to this game may be the third quarter, a true bout of Strength v. Strength. Coming out of halftime adjustments, MIA is scoring 11.8 points in Q3 (#1) and DET is only allowing 3 points (#2).
Prediction The Lions are amongst the league leaders in slower, 10+ play and five-minute drives, whereas the Dolphins should rely on a faster tempo to keep the defense off balance. Both offenses should have trouble dictating the script, with running yards scarce and defenses dominating. While the Dolphins have the more prolific offense in yards/first downs/points, Detroit has showed the tenacity to overcome 21- and 13-point deficits in huge fourth quarter comebacks the last two weeks. Ultimately, I have to pick the Dolphins to WIN. BUF and KC showed the key to unlocking the Miami defense is by establishing the run, and the Lions just don't have the running game to do that. On the other hand, the key to unlocking the Detroit defense is quick intermediate passing in the middle of the field, and that just happens to be Ryan Tannehill's specialty.
MIA 20 DET 16
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