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tampa a 5 point favorite

adamprez2003

adamprez2003

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tampa opened as a five point favorite. Though it was a touch high. Wouldve made it 4.
 
Whether or not Caddy plays will have a huge influence on this game. Their offense works much better when they don't have to rely on Griese to make the plays.
 
Ark139954 said:
miami will go down there and kick there a***s
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I feel good about this one. We match up well with them. If we stay away from the turnovers I think we win.
 
touborg said:
Whether or not Caddy plays will have a huge influence on this game. Their offense works much better when they don't have to rely on Griese to make the plays.
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I think a 5 point spread means Vegas is saying he's playing
 
Actually Tampa is "up" from Miami, but I get your drift. Seeing that you're from NJ, I understand your lack of knowledge on the lay-out of Florida. I don't agree with it my friend, but I get it.
Back to the subject 5 points is a tad high. I think you'll see that come down to 3.5 by the end of the week. Not sold on Gruden's analysis of Carnell's injury.
 
adamprez2003 said:
tampa opened as a five point favorite. Though it was a touch high. Wouldve made it 4.
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just want to give you guy's a hint. I'm a recovering compulsive gambler :( and I can promise you this will be a 3 pt. start at gametime. Take the points now because the smart money will start hitting it hard on Saturday.
 
DolphinTiger said:
just want to give you guy's a hint. I'm a recovering compulsive gambler :( and I can promise you this will be a 3 pt. start at gametime. Take the points now because the smart money will start hitting it hard on Saturday.
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I prefer to wait and see the money hit it
 
adamprez2003 said:
tampa opened as a five point favorite. Though it was a touch high. Wouldve made it 4.
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I agree. I thought it should be 3.5.

This is a take. MUCH better value than taking 6 at New York or 3 at Buffalo. For one thing, we are coming off a loss, not a win. Road teams coming off a loss cover at a 54% clip, compared to 45% for road teams coming off a win. You get a more focused and less satisfied effort. Hardly a coincidence that New England was able to win at Pittsburgh and at Atlanta while coming off a loss, but lost at Carolina the week after a win.

Also, obviously Tampa Bay does not own the anti-revenge factor after beating us twice last year. That was severely understated prior to the Jets and Bills games, and essentially responsible for the 10-0 and 17-0 halftime leads. Just because the mainstream media never mentions anti-revenge as an edge at home, doesn't mean it isn't legit and considerable.

Unlike at New York and Buffalo, Miami should have at least equal energy to Tampa Bay at the beginning of the game. I also like that we beat them in preseason. That may seem trivial, but it's a very recent meeting and may establish a bit of a pecking order. I damn sure would rather have the knowledge and confidence of success in the most recent meeting, not failure. Revenge only works if you're the better team and blew the previous meeting. Otherwise, give me the mindset I beat you and no reason it shouldn't happen again.

One other factor in our favor: teams that go undefeated for at least 4 games at the start of the season tend to falter the week after their first defeat, if it's not a team that was expected to be very good or great going into the season. Regression to the mean. Tampa Bay's over/under on season wins was low, not much higher than ours. It doesn't make sense for a team like that to continue rolling, at 5-1 or 6-1.

This should be a low scoring battle among even teams. At +4 or higher it's a bet you'll win more often than not.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
I agree. I thought it should be 3.5.

This is a take. MUCH better value than taking 6 at New York or 3 at Buffalo. For one thing, we are coming off a loss, not a win. Road teams coming off a loss cover at a 54% clip, compared to 45% for road teams coming off a win. You get a more focused and less satisfied effort. Hardly a coincidence that New England was able to win at Pittsburgh and at Atlanta while coming off a loss, but lost at Carolina the week after a win.

Also, obviously Tampa Bay does not own the anti-revenge factor after beating us twice last year. That was severely understated prior to the Jets and Bills games, and essentially responsible for the 10-0 and 17-0 halftime leads. Just because the mainstream media never mentions anti-revenge as an edge at home, doesn't mean it isn't legit and considerable.

Unlike at New York and Buffalo, Miami should have at least equal energy to Tampa Bay at the beginning of the game. I also like that we beat them in preseason. That may seem trivial, but it's a very recent meeting and may establish a bit of a pecking order. I damn sure would rather have the knowledge and confidence of success in the most recent meeting, not failure. Revenge only works if you're the better team and blew the previous meeting. Otherwise, give me the mindset I beat you and no reason it shouldn't happen again.

One other factor in our favor: teams that go undefeated for at least 4 games at the start of the season tend to falter the week after their first defeat, if it's not a team that was expected to be very good or great going into the season. Regression to the mean. Tampa Bay's over/under on season wins was low, not much higher than ours. It doesn't make sense for a team like that to continue rolling, at 5-1 or 6-1.

This should be a low scoring battle among even teams. At +4 or higher it's a bet you'll win more often than not.
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I agree with its better for us next week coming off a loss. Unfortunately Tampa is also. I would be happier about the game if Tampa had pulled that one out. Then I think we might have caught them napping. Still I agree about the low scoring battle. The total hasnt been posted yet but I would imagine 36 or so should be the line.
 
adamprez2003 said:
I agree with its better for us next week coming off a loss. Unfortunately Tampa is also. I would be happier about the game if Tampa had pulled that one out. Then I think we might have caught them napping. Still I agree about the low scoring battle. The total hasnt been posted yet but I would imagine 36 or so should be the line.
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I haven't seen a total yet. I'm sure it's available here, but I didn't hit as many sportsbooks as typical on Monday. Might even be a shade lower than 36.

The books got hurt on our total vs. Buffalo. It should have been difficult to lose no matter which way you went. The total opened at 33 then went up once Holcomb was confirmed as the starter, which made sense. But on Saturday night I saw both 33.5 and 34.5 at various joints. At 20-14 that was the worst number possible for the sportsbooks. But at the same time the FG helped them, since 17-14 would have been a push for everyone who bet late, and a win for the players who took Buffalo -2.5.

Plus 4 is a critical number for ROAD underdogs. That's my take number among teams rated in the same ability group. My friends and I studied it going back to '78. If you get 4 or higher the likelihood of success goes up substantially from +3 or +3.5.
 
I just checked a few offshore joints. The total is even lower than we thought. Betcris.com, a very big offshore sportsbook, has Miami +4.5 and the total is 32. I think this pointspread will come down, if anything. The number 5 is not a critical number. I need to look for a 5 and then take a 4.5 if no 5s are available. You don't want to miss the 4.5s and then end up with a push if it ends something like 17-13.
 
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