Tampa Bay - Possible Trade Partner (ESPN Insider)

phunwin

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I posted this on the main board, but didn't quote the article directly. As I understand it, we're a little more liberal with being able to quote Insider-type stuff in the Premium Members area...

From today's ESPN Insider Draft Rumors...
Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen's recent visit to Utah quarterback Alex Smith and Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers unofficially gives the 49ers, Dolphins and Browns a possible trading partner if they are willing to make a sweetheart deal to move out of their picks in the draft. The Bucs consider Smith and Rodgers top-level quarterbacks.
Although no trade talks have begun, the Bucs' late push to visit the QBs creates some options for the top three teams. Going off the trade charts used by most teams, the normal cost of moving from No. 5 to No. 1 would be top-10, first-round pick. To move from No. 5 to No. 2 would be a top-12 pick. To move from No. 5 to No. 3 would be a second-round pick, something the Bucs could easily do.
 

phunwin

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BTW, this just confirms what Boomer has been saying, so cheers to him!
 

Celtkin

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Thanks for the info. That would be great if we could pick up a couple extra picks and still draft in the top tier of the first round. Question is, how would that affect our draft choice? Any ideas on who we might pick with TB's 1st rounder?
 

phunwin

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Celtkin said:
Thanks for the info. That would be great if we could pick up a couple extra picks and still draft in the top tier of the first round. Question is, how would that affect our draft choice? Any ideas on who we might pick with TB's 1st rounder?
BPA, probably. If we assume the Browns take Edwards at 3 and the Bears take Benson at 4, you can probably pencil us in for Ronnie Brown at 5. I can't see us taking Mike Williams over Brown, but who knows? If anyone knows what the Phins are doing on draft day, they're a smarter man than me.
 

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I wouldn't rule out Cadillac Williams at five if the Dolphins were to make a deal like that. The shock pick, if they traded down, could be Antrell Rolle. Think about it. Nick Saban is a big defensive secondary guy. He's a coach that will crave cornerbacks that can play in different styles.
 

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That would be perfect. We'd still get a super player at five.
 

DrAstroZoom

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If there were one pick that would truly disappoint me, it would be Antrell Role. :(
 

phunwin

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DrAstroZoom said:
If there were one pick that would truly disappoint me, it would be Antrell Role. :(
I agree. I like Antrell and all, but we have much bigger needs than CB. I'm happy to go into next year with Madison, Howard, Poole and Edwards. That's not a world-beating group, but they're plenty good enough. Hopefully, Saban isn't hellbent on shoe-horning the team into a set system, and ignoring better rated players and needs.
 

ckparrothead

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I said this out in the main threads, but knowing Gruden this is a sign that his real target is Ronnie Brown.

1. Talking up the QB's and getting into trade discussions with the Dolphins and/or Browns may actually convince the Dolphins or Browns to take whichever QB the 49ers do not.

2. Talking up the QB's may convince another team to "beat the Bucs to the punch" and trade with one of the top 4 teams to get a QB.

3. Having both QB's get taken in the top 4 dramatically increases the chances that Ronnie Brown will make it to #5.

4. Miami has publically stated they will trade down if presented with a good package.

5. The public perception is also that if unsuccessful at trading down, Miami WILL take Ronnie Brown.

6. The Bears do not appear to be enamoured with Brown. Neither do the Browns, who have Lee Suggs.

7. Ronnie Brown can run like all heck in wide open spaces (outrunning even cornerbacks, etc), he can catch better than any back in the draft, and he's huge and can hit. He's like a bigger Mike Pittman, without all of the off-field issues. Gruden's offense has always been at its best when they have that Pittman-type player playing really well.

In this case, Gruden is actually trying to facilitate a trade between Miami and some other team...which is fine by me.

If I were Miami I would call Gruden up and say listen, level with me, what would you give to move up to #2 and take Ronnie Brown. If we really DO like one of the quarterbacks, and if we have good intell that the Browns are not really prepared to take one of the QBs, then I would do the trade for the Browns 3rd this year, and 2nd next year...which I know does not mesh with the infamous "trade value chart" but whatever. The extra picks in Saban's first couple of years while he actually has the inside track knowledge of the college players will benefit us down the road.

Imagine this.

Miami trades the #2 for Tampa's #5, their 3rd, and 2006 2nd round pick, Tampa picks Ronnie Brown, the Browns pick Braylon Edwards, the Bears pick either Mike Williams or Cedric Benson, and the Dolphins pick up Aaron Rodgers at #5.

That scenario COULD indeed happen.
 

DrAstroZoom

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ckparrothead said:
Imagine this.

Miami trades the #2 for Tampa's #5, their 3rd, and 2006 2nd round pick, Tampa picks Ronnie Brown, the Browns pick Braylon Edwards, the Bears pick either Mike Williams or Cedric Benson, and the Dolphins pick up Aaron Rodgers at #5.

That scenario COULD indeed happen.
The nicest thing about that scenario is we would end up paying Rodgers #5 money instead of #2 money. The drawback: I'd really like to see more picks THIS year. But that, admittedly, is being greedy and not cognizant of a multi-year rebuilding plan.
 

phunwin

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ckparrothead said:
I said this out in the main threads, but knowing Gruden this is a sign that his real target is Ronnie Brown.

1. Talking up the QB's and getting into trade discussions with the Dolphins and/or Browns may actually convince the Dolphins or Browns to take whichever QB the 49ers do not.

2. Talking up the QB's may convince another team to "beat the Bucs to the punch" and trade with one of the top 4 teams to get a QB.

3. Having both QB's get taken in the top 4 dramatically increases the chances that Ronnie Brown will make it to #5.

4. Miami has publically stated they will trade down if presented with a good package.

5. The public perception is also that if unsuccessful at trading down, Miami WILL take Ronnie Brown.

6. The Bears do not appear to be enamoured with Brown. Neither do the Browns, who have Lee Suggs.

7. Ronnie Brown can run like all heck in wide open spaces (outrunning even cornerbacks, etc), he can catch better than any back in the draft, and he's huge and can hit. He's like a bigger Mike Pittman, without all of the off-field issues. Gruden's offense has always been at its best when they have that Pittman-type player playing really well.

In this case, Gruden is actually trying to facilitate a trade between Miami and some other team...which is fine by me.

If I were Miami I would call Gruden up and say listen, level with me, what would you give to move up to #2 and take Ronnie Brown. If we really DO like one of the quarterbacks, and if we have good intell that the Browns are not really prepared to take one of the QBs, then I would do the trade for the Browns 3rd this year, and 2nd next year...which I know does not mesh with the infamous "trade value chart" but whatever. The extra picks in Saban's first couple of years while he actually has the inside track knowledge of the college players will benefit us down the road.

Imagine this.

Miami trades the #2 for Tampa's #5, their 3rd, and 2006 2nd round pick, Tampa picks Ronnie Brown, the Browns pick Braylon Edwards, the Bears pick either Mike Williams or Cedric Benson, and the Dolphins pick up Aaron Rodgers at #5.

That scenario COULD indeed happen.
I don't know, CK. It sounds interesting, and fairly logical, but it's got more ins and outs than a JFK assassination conspiracy theory. Seems like an awfully big stretch to me. If the Bucs want to jump to #2, they would seem to have no incentive to smokescreen the Phins, who are obviously not dead set on Brown.

That said, I hope you're right; if there was some way we could end up with Aaron Rodgers at 5 with a few other picks in tow, all the better.
 

ckparrothead

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I don't know, CK. It sounds interesting, and fairly logical, but it's got more ins and outs than a JFK assassination conspiracy theory. Seems like an awfully big stretch to me. If the Bucs want to jump to #2, they would seem to have no incentive to smokescreen the Phins, who are obviously not dead set on Brown.

That said, I hope you're right; if there was some way we could end up with Aaron Rodgers at 5 with a few other picks in tow, all the better.
What is a stretch to me, is that the Buccaneers would show their hand so early in the process by gushing about the quarterbacks and talking about trading up as a possibility, before they even have a good idea of which QB the 49ers will take.

Jon Gruden simply would not do that. All he does by doing that is create demand for the very same quarterbacks that he supposedly would like to look into moving up for. What also strikes me is how multiple people within the organization are on the same page on this one. In the modern NFL era, that usually is not the case, as the head coach is often guarded even with his own people over where he will end up going.

What is no stretch of the imagination whatsoever, is that this whole ordeal is a sign that Jon Gruden is NOT looking to take one of the quarterbacks. It is my own opinion that the player he has settled on is Ronnie Brown, however if you look at it logically from an incentive, cause and effect point of view, it is easy to see why Gruden would do this, if his target was indeed Ronnie Brown.

And no, it does not make more sense for Gruden to contact us directly about trading to #2 to get Ronnie Brown, because why in the heck would he want to do that when he can do other easier things (like put out a few easy words in a newspaper) and get Ronnie at #5 all the same.

It is my opinion that the Bucs have indeed made a mistake, though one they've attempted to obfuscate. Their ploy is just a little too easy to work out. Contact them and offer them terms on a trade up to #2 to get a quarterback, and they'll play coy and probably use language like "we'll see what happens," and "we have to see how a few more things play out," etc and they might just pretend to balk at our asking price...and we'll never get them to commit, because they'll think we and the rest of the league are falling for the bait. They'll probably also use the negotiations as a tool to gauge which teams might be moving up to the Dolphins position because, after all in these types of trade negotiations, it would be to our benefit to use any other offers we have on the table as leverage against the Bucs.

The mistake is that now the Dolphins can fool the Bucs into thinking we have fallen for their bait, and when we are on the clock, if all other trade-down options are exhausted, we can lay it to them straight and say listen, we're going to take Ronnie Brown. Do you want to trade up with us to get him or not? Here's our offer.

Make the offer reasonable (as in far less than the infamous trade value chart would say), and I bet they would bite...because they will have gone into the draft pretty sure they would snag Ronnie Brown.

Just look at the player breakdown, though. If they are truly after a QB, what does going public with it accomplish? Absolutely nothing. It only tempts teams to trade ahead of them for one of those QBs, and tempts teams picking ahead of them to take a second look at those QBs since a QB guru like Jon Gruden is interested in them.

Would it help them get Braylon Edwards? I think everyone and their sister knows that if Braylon somehow made it past the Dolphins and Browns, he would be a Bear.

Is it Mike Williams? It really could be him, I will admit. In fact, I'm guessing that the Bucs are merely trying to ensure that either Ronnie Brown or Mike Williams are available when they select. His name has been tied to Tampa all along, being a home town boy, and with them needing a young WR to grow with Michael Clayton. Furthermore, ensuring that both QBs get selected in the top 4 also helps ensure that Mike Williams makes it to #5.

What is interesting here is that Tampa would probably end up screwed if Miami takes Ronnie Brown, and Cleveland takes Braylon Edwards. In that scenario, would the Bears take a runningback? Or would they take Mike Williams. I think they would take Mike Williams. So then the Bucs will be sitting there with one of the QBs in front of them, supposedly "getting their wish" and they won't be very happy.

That's why I think Saban could pull one on them by simply telling them that they plan on taking Ronnie Brown.
 

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This draft rumor thing is a joke. First of all TB would be stupid not to look at the two QBs. very easily, Edwards, Brown, Benson, Williams could all go before both QBs are taken. So it is would be irresponsible of any team with a top five pick not to research all the top five potential players. But researching does not mean anything. They did not even come out and say they are interested in a trade. They just looked.

I think for the many needs TB has, they will be able to get a great player at #5. They need RB, WR real bad, and they just signed a QB. To pass on all those needs to get someone "in case" Griese fails, and knowing they have Simms, just does not make sense. Sorry but this is a very unlikely and very doubtful scenario.
 

phunwin

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ckparrothead said:
What is a stretch to me, is that the Buccaneers would show their hand so early in the process by gushing about the quarterbacks and talking about trading up as a possibility, before they even have a good idea of which QB the 49ers will take.
Why's it a stretch? There's ample precedent for the whole "Team X is hot for so-and-so and is looking to move up for him" situation, which leads to Team X doing just that. Happens every single year, and often about this time.

Jon Gruden simply would not do that. All he does by doing that is create demand for the very same quarterbacks that he supposedly would like to look into moving up for. What also strikes me is how multiple people within the organization are on the same page on this one. In the modern NFL era, that usually is not the case, as the head coach is often guarded even with his own people over where he will end up going.
I don't see how he's creating demand, though. That assumes that NFL GMs will say, "Huh, Jon Gruden sees something in these guys, maybe we should take another look." My experience with the draft, such as it is, is that teams are starting to lock in on a small group of guys right about now at their pick, and are focusing on that, and not getting distracted by things like, "well, Tampa likes this QB, even though we ruled him out already."

What is no stretch of the imagination whatsoever, is that this whole ordeal is a sign that Jon Gruden is NOT looking to take one of the quarterbacks. It is my own opinion that the player he has settled on is Ronnie Brown, however if you look at it logically from an incentive, cause and effect point of view, it is easy to see why Gruden would do this, if his target was indeed Ronnie Brown.

And no, it does not make more sense for Gruden to contact us directly about trading to #2 to get Ronnie Brown, because why in the heck would he want to do that when he can do other easier things (like put out a few easy words in a newspaper) and get Ronnie at #5 all the same.
It makes sense because everyone and their brother knows that we want to trade down, and believes that if forced to pick at #2, we will take Brown. Even if we assume that Brown isn't a lock at #2 for us (and I don't think he is), it's still the most likely place for him to go. All this sneaking around isn't going to pay off until and unless they work out a deal for the pick. If they want Brown to fall to 5, they basically need to sell Miami on Rodgers and Smith. How are they going to do that? Nick Saban's certainly not going to say, "wow, Gruden's brilliant. If Rodgers is good enough for him, he's good enough for me. I'll take Rodgers instead of going along with my carefully laid plan."

If he's not trying to sell Miami on one of those guys, who else is going to be in a position to trade up for a QB? There aren't many teams. Cleveland could, but that doesn't help Tampa at all. Dallas? Unlikely. San Diego and Minnesota have the ammunition, but obviously not the need. Arizona's a longshot at best, considering they already signed Kurt Warner and have a hundred other needs. Green Bay has the need, but probably not the ammunition. Who else is out there?

We'll see what happens, but I think you're outthinking yourself.
 

phunwin

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Here's some more on the Bucs' plans, such as they are. This is from today's ESPN Insider look at NFC South draft plans:

ESPN Insider said:
The Bucs have 12 overall draft selections, including four on day one, and they can use each and every one of them. The team needs to find a starting running back, outside linebacker, strong safety, guard and defensive tackle, as well as a No. 3 receiver with speed.

Allen is one of the best in the business at "massaging" the draft and will entertain several bidders for the No. 5 pick. However, when it's all said and done, the Bucs likely will use that pick on the best available athlete. If one of the top quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) falls to them at No. 5, don't be shocked if they pull the trigger. Otherwise, we expect they will take the highest-rated wide receiver or running back on the board.

Michigan's Braylon Edwards would be the best-case scenario, but there's a good chance he'll be gone. That means they'll have a tough decision between USC WR Mike Williams and whichever of the three top running backs (Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams and Cedric Benson) are still available. If it is a running back, coach Gruden could push for the "Cadillac" after coaching him at the Senior Bowl.
Not a word about trading up. :mad:
 
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