I don't know, CK. It sounds interesting, and fairly logical, but it's got more ins and outs than a JFK assassination conspiracy theory. Seems like an awfully big stretch to me. If the Bucs want to jump to #2, they would seem to have no incentive to smokescreen the Phins, who are obviously not dead set on Brown.
That said, I hope you're right; if there was some way we could end up with Aaron Rodgers at 5 with a few other picks in tow, all the better.
What is a stretch to me, is that the Buccaneers would show their hand so early in the process by gushing about the quarterbacks and talking about trading up as a possibility, before they even have a good idea of which QB the 49ers will take.
Jon Gruden simply would not do that. All he does by doing that is create demand for the very same quarterbacks that he supposedly would like to look into moving up for. What also strikes me is how multiple people within the organization are on the same page on this one. In the modern NFL era, that usually is not the case, as the head coach is often guarded even with his own people over where he will end up going.
What is no stretch of the imagination whatsoever, is that this whole ordeal is a sign that Jon Gruden is NOT looking to take one of the quarterbacks. It is my own opinion that the player he has settled on is Ronnie Brown, however if you look at it logically from an incentive, cause and effect point of view, it is easy to see why Gruden would do this, if his target was indeed Ronnie Brown.
And no, it does not make more sense for Gruden to contact us directly about trading to #2 to get Ronnie Brown, because why in the heck would he want to do that when he can do other easier things (like put out a few easy words in a newspaper) and get Ronnie at #5 all the same.
It is my opinion that the Bucs have indeed made a mistake, though one they've attempted to obfuscate. Their ploy is just a little too easy to work out. Contact them and offer them terms on a trade up to #2 to get a quarterback, and they'll play coy and probably use language like "we'll see what happens," and "we have to see how a few more things play out," etc and they might just pretend to balk at our asking price...and we'll never get them to commit, because they'll think we and the rest of the league are falling for the bait. They'll probably also use the negotiations as a tool to gauge which teams might be moving up to the Dolphins position because, after all in these types of trade negotiations, it would be to our benefit to use any other offers we have on the table as leverage against the Bucs.
The mistake is that now the Dolphins can fool the Bucs into thinking we have fallen for their bait, and when we are on the clock, if all other trade-down options are exhausted, we can lay it to them straight and say listen, we're going to take Ronnie Brown. Do you want to trade up with us to get him or not? Here's our offer.
Make the offer reasonable (as in far less than the infamous trade value chart would say), and I bet they would bite...because they will have gone into the draft pretty sure they would snag Ronnie Brown.
Just look at the player breakdown, though. If they are truly after a QB, what does going public with it accomplish? Absolutely nothing. It only tempts teams to trade ahead of them for one of those QBs, and tempts teams picking ahead of them to take a second look at those QBs since a QB guru like Jon Gruden is interested in them.
Would it help them get Braylon Edwards? I think everyone and their sister knows that if Braylon somehow made it past the Dolphins and Browns, he would be a Bear.
Is it Mike Williams? It really could be him, I will admit. In fact, I'm guessing that the Bucs are merely trying to ensure that either Ronnie Brown or Mike Williams are available when they select. His name has been tied to Tampa all along, being a home town boy, and with them needing a young WR to grow with Michael Clayton. Furthermore, ensuring that both QBs get selected in the top 4 also helps ensure that Mike Williams makes it to #5.
What is interesting here is that Tampa would probably end up screwed if Miami takes Ronnie Brown, and Cleveland takes Braylon Edwards. In that scenario, would the Bears take a runningback? Or would they take Mike Williams. I think they would take Mike Williams. So then the Bucs will be sitting there with one of the QBs in front of them, supposedly "getting their wish" and they won't be very happy.
That's why I think Saban could pull one on them by simply telling them that they plan on taking Ronnie Brown.
