Targets at #11

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by SF Dolphin Fan, Jan 13, 2018.

  1. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Assuming there is no trade, who do you think the top five targets are at #11. I'll take a bit of a stab.

    Guice, RB --- Free agency might be the place to find a complement to Drake, but Guice is certainly interesting and could be in consideration.

    Nelson/Brown OL --- I would be somewhat surprised if Miami went offensive line in the first, but if they do these guys would seem like the top two available.

    Fitzpatrick, FS --- I think he could go top five, but if he falls I would think the Dolphins pounce.

    Smith, OLB --- Smith is most likely a weakside, which probably isn't where Miami will look. His talent, though, is undeniable.

    Key, DE -- Is he too risky?

    Ferrell, DE --- Not sure if he's declared, but certainly a pass rusher has to be a high priority.

    Davenport, DE/OLB -- Another pass rush option.

    James, SS --- I think he'll be there, but with Jones and McDonald would Miami bite?

    Bryan, DT --- Interesting option. Can he play end? Comparisons out there to JJ Watt.

    Mayfield, QB --- Doubt Miami goes quarterback, but you just never know.
     
  2. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Might wanna add deshone Elliott. He's a good looking FS and will be a riser
     
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  3. Stills&Landry

    Stills&Landry A True Fan

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    Smith, James, Fitzpatrick, Wilkins, Ferrell, Andrews, Mayfield, Landry, Bryan, Elliott and Evans in that order, actually at least one of these will likely be there all the way down to, say NO pick. I could see us trading down all the way there. If we lose Landry throw in Ridley, Kirk and DJ Moore. That's 14 names. Plus the positions we're not interested in, we might be better off trading down if we get good value.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
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  4. Stills&Landry

    Stills&Landry A True Fan

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    I like him but I'm having a hard time separating him from Justin Reid. His instincts are better of course but I like Reid better in run support, overall intelligence and as an athlete. I guess I would wait until the second and take the one left from those two. Specially cause someone will take Harrison who I don't think fits here with Reshad since I see no FS or man coverage more like freelancing like Jones.
     
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  5. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    I do wonder how far Miami could trade down and get Andrews. Have to think Gase would love a TE like that.
     
  6. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Maybe it's me but Andrews looked real slow in the semi final against Georgia. I don't think he's as good as i had hoped. He does catch everything but i question his athleticism
     
  7. MiamiDolfan85

    MiamiDolfan85 DA M.I.A IS WHERE I STAY

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    Even in highlights you could tell he's getting open by mostly design, & savy (almost unorthodox) route running. Definitely a good player though, but how good?
     
  8. Stills&Landry

    Stills&Landry A True Fan

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    He's huuuge and sure fast enough. He arrived at OU as a WR. IDK but I'm expecting a Gronk-esque mismatch. We'll see what he runs. If he runs under 4.7, which he will, he's gone by Seattle's pick no doubt.
     
  9. fininpsl

    fininpsl A True Fan Donator

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    Take Ferrell off the list. Swinney announced at the Clemson team banquet that Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant, Kendall Joseph, and Mark Fields are all returning to school for their senior seasons.
     
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  10. Stills&Landry

    Stills&Landry A True Fan

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    Bad decision from Ferrell; of course he could do better next year but he was already a lock for the 1st round, good from Bryant and Joseph. Sucks for us. Those three would have fit our defensive scheme and needs.
     
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  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Think the advisory board gave him a 2nd-RD grade. A Chubb-like Senior year could put him in the top 10. I wouldn't have blamed him for leaving, but I don't blame him for returning either. If he can keep his health, and improve his consistency, it should pay off for him.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2018
  12. aquaman54

    aquaman54 Starter

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    Roquan Please!!! After having Foster Literally fall into our laps last year....and then NOT take Him.....

    Please Don't Screw This Up Ross,Gase,Bomb!!!
     
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  13. Birdmond

    Birdmond A True Fan Donator

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    Still glad we passed on Foster. Drug testing in the NFL is an intelligence test and foster is a dumb arse.
     
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  14. Stills&Landry

    Stills&Landry A True Fan

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    Foster is both stupid and a horrible human being. I'd find it hard to root for him.
     
  15. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs UCF 13-0 Finheaven VIP Donator

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    That dline next year for Clemson is going to be so good. ****
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I have a lot of guys that I think are pretty worthwhile. Some I like more than others, obviously.

    QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
    QB Sam Darnold, USC
    QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
    QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
    RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
    TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma
    WR Christian Kirk, Texas A&M
    OT Orlando Brown, Oklahoma
    DT Vita Vea, Washington
    DT Da'Ron Payne, Alabama
    DE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State
    DE Marcus Davenport, UTSA
    DE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
    LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
    LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
    DB Derwin James, Florida State
    DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
    CB Joshua Jackson, Iowa
    CB Tarvarus McFadden, Florida State
    CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
    CB Mike Hughes, UCF
    CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
    S Ronnie Harrison, Alabama
     
  17. CedarPhin

    CedarPhin King of the Winter Carnival Finheaven VIP

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    What are your thoughts on Josh Allen, CK?
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    First off, I fell in love with Josh Allen back in 2016.

    So I've been watching the market go through this story arc from hope to hype to hate and now some sort of odd demonstration of cognitive dissonance as the people try and reconcile their hatred for the player with the consistent signaling from the professionals that they still value him very high...and I've been fairly disconnected from it, in part because I have known the player longer than them.

    The good stuff is obvious.

    He really has a great arm. Top tier. Like, tippy-top. Maybe not the strongest arm I've seen but he's pretty far up there. There are areas of the football field defenders will have to defend more assertively because of his arm, and that can open up some easier stuff. I'm not an arm strength nut; I generally think there's a requisite level of arm strength you need to start in the NFL and, once you have that, incremental arm strength won't necessarily lead to incremental effectiveness. However, it's a basic tool in the tool kit. The more tools you have that can hurt a defense, the better. It counts, and it adds up with the other tools.

    He's huge. Why's that good? It's typically harder to intimidate a big guy in the pocket, which sucks for the defense because half the benefit of pressure is what the QB does when you aren't touching him, or when you're not even pressuring him at all. The size makes him harder to bring down, so you'll have extra time to get the ball off in some instances, which can lead to game-changing big plays. He can reasonably be assumed to be able to see over the line and throw the ball into other areas where smaller guys would have to be especially cognizant of passing lanes. There's a good and bad in that, in that the guys that have to pay attention to those passing lanes and slide their feet can at times become savants in part because of their need to pay attention to such fine details.

    He's fast. He can scramble and run. He's got natural elusiveness. We're not talking Quinton Flowers elusiveness but it's certainly better than a Mason Rudolph or someone of his ilk. But combine the feet and the elusiveness with his size, a guy that can buy time like he does and make big plays like he does can force a defense to play them differently. Playing him differently means easier stuff opens up.

    When you add up the arm strength, the size, and the feet, these things stack in a way that can really put a defense on their heels, and extract yardage that they weren't trying to give. That's important. Defenses give up some things and take away other things. Guys like Josh Allen can take what they weren't trying to give up.

    Step back, stop dissecting things into their basic elements, and just watch a play:

    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs San Diego State

    Who the hell makes that play, that throw, and wouldn't you rather that guy be on your team rather than on the other team?

    Oh and that's hardly an isolated incident. Picking out THE most singly stupefying touchdown throw from among Josh Allen's collection of stupefying touchdown throws is a pretty tough task.

    Here is a choice selection of the others from 2016:

    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs Nebraska (note the down, distance, clock, quarter, scoreboard)
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs UC Davis
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs UC Davis
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs Boise State (note the down, distance, clock, quarter, scoreboard)
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs Utah State
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs Utah State
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs UNLV (note the down, distance, clock, quarter, and scoreboard)
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs San Diego State (note the down, distance, clock, quarter, and scoreboard)
    2016 Josh Allen TD throw vs BYU (note the down, distance, clock, quarter, and scoreboard)

    This guy's A+ plays are A+ for anyone who has ever played the game. There's no grading on a curve, there.

    That's worth something. It's not about just arm strength. I can take or leave arm strength that's never put to good use. It's about play making, and that's a whole lot different from how a guy "looks". Baker Mayfield couldn't possibly look more different from Josh Allen, but he makes damn good plays. Russell Wilson makes damn good plays. Josh Allen does as well.

    The legs and size to buy extra time, the vision to see it, the daring to take it, and the arm to get it there, and the accuracy to land it, it takes all those things to make plays. I used to be a huge fan of a kid that was 5'11" and 171 lbs with half the arm strength of a Josh Allen, because he was one of the most prolific lightning strike play makers I'd seen at the position in college.

    But that kid had a tragic background, more than a few emotional issues, a learning disability, communication issues, and no experience with a pro style system. Josh Allen has a stable background, no learning issues I know of, good communication skills, and he's executed pro concepts you generally don't see from 90% of the passers that are drafted nowadays. That's in addition to, as I said before, being half a foot taller and 70 pounds harder to bring down.

    And I just alluded to something I've been talking about for over a year that people don't realize, which are the intangibles with Josh Allen. This is the entire reason he entered the season as a top 10 pick for a lot of NFL teams. Josh Allen was present at pre-Draft events a year ago (the Senior Bowl or Combine, can't remember which but it honestly doesn't matter) and he met with teams. They got a preview of his intellect, communications skills, and football knowledge a year in advance, and loved what they found out. That's why they still love him despite what many view to be a disappointing year.

    I didn't love his 2017, mostly because he didn't seem to take a big step forward in many of things that nagged me about his 2016. He doesn't always manage the pocket as he should. He can lose his cool and start trying to create rather than work within the confines of the play. He still takes some chances that might best be left on the field. The accuracy wasn't what it should have been.

    But I understood that it was tough to take a step FORWARD as a player when the rest of the offense so clearly took a step BACKWARD. The running game was not even close to what it was a year ago with Brian Hill rushing for 1,860 yards and 22 TDs. Together, Wyoming's top three running backs combined for 1,004 yards on 3.5 yards per carry.

    Allen also lost his top three receiving options from a year ago (Taylor Gentry, Jake Maulhardt, Jacob Hollister, all of whom got shots in the NFL). These were guys that totaled 142 catches for 2,455 yards and 25 TDs a year ago. His top two targets this year were sophomores.

    It takes a toll. It's not an excuse to go out there and play bad football from a personal standpoint, but it's tough to take a step forward and be a significantly better football player under those conditions. I think you see this sort of second year correction in lots of college QB careers, and usually the third year they're better than ever.

    Allen won't have that third year because he came out early. He came out early because he was a JUCO transfer. He was a JUCO transfer because he came from a town of like 500 people and almost literally nobody from any big colleges ever scouted his high school games.

    I probably can't possibly communicate all the positive reasons I like him, nor can I tally up the potential pitfalls he could've fallen into with me that he deftly avoids, which is part of why I continue to view him as such a good prospect. In the end you just feel a certain way and that's how it goes. I see people comparing him to Christian Hackenberg, whom I strongly disliked as a prospect, and while I can appreciate the comparisons on some level, there's the simple fact that I disliked one and like the other. So we'll see.
     
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  19. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

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    He's about as exciting as a prospect as the color beige.
     
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  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    How fast is Mark Andrews?

    May I remind you of this:

    TE Mark Andrews 2015 long touchdown vs Tulsa

    The man you see try and catch Mark Andrews from behind is a 5'10" & 170 lbs corner named Kerwin Thomas. NFL Draft Scout estimates that Kerwin Thomas has 4.48 speed. Think about that.

    And it's not an isolated incident:

    TE Mark Andrews 2016 long touchdown vs Houston

    This time he did the same thing to CB Howard Wilson, who ran a 4.53 at the NFL Combine.
     
  21. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

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    Those clips really don't show a lot...

    Shows a guy with a decent lead still make it to the end zone. For science...It takes someone about 5 seconds, running in a straight line, to make up a yard if the difference in 40 times is a 10th of a second.
     
  22. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I'm not as high on Allen, but his physical tools are a few levels up from Hackenberg, and he throws a beautiful ball. Hackenberg was just ugly to watch. I could never understand why anyone would consider drafting him.
     
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  23. Zounds

    Zounds CPA4LYFE Donator

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    My board at 11 (excluding QB's) pending any combine meltdowns:

    1. QB1
    2. QB2
    3. QB3
    4. DE Bradley Chubb
    5. RB Saquon Barkley
    6. S Derwin James
    7. DT Vita Vea
    8. S Minkah Fitzpatrick (He's a safety to me)
    9. DT DaRon Payne
    10. CB Denzel Ward
    11. CB Josh Jackson

    I don't care if we have good depth at DT or CB, I'll draft one anyways at 11. On day 2 or 3 though, I'm probably not thinking hard about DT's or CB's.
     
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  24. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    That's a nice order. I get the quarterback thing. If the team can upgrade over Tannehill, why not. It's a qb driven league. Although the irony there is Tannehill is probably better than three of the four quarterbacks in the conference championships. Guess that speaks for defense.

    I also think Guice is pretty close to Barkely and wouldn't mind that pick at all. I really like Bryan as someone who can move around the DL and apply pressure. Miami looks pretty set at DT, but the ability to attack inside is huge against a team like NE and the Suh contract could cause the team to move on from him after this next season.
     
  25. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    This is probably the best top 11 I've seen. Nicely done. I would shuffle Minkah with Barkley.
     
  26. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    I like the designation "DB" with Minkah & Derwin. They will be all over the field and just impact games.
     

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