The Big O is on right now from the Senior Bowl practices | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The Big O is on right now from the Senior Bowl practices

I've come to the conclusion that its extraordinarily difficult to try and compare these kinds of things damn near impossible. I'll just say a few things I came up with...and keep in mind these aren't statistical observations per se they are more intuitive based on sets of names

#1. Guys drafted #1 through #19 have about a 50/50 chance of doing something with their careers....tracked all the way back to 1982 with 36 names in this category.

#2. Guys drafted #20 through #32 have between a 10% and 20% chance of doing something with their careers...of about 10 names only Marino had a really good career, though Jim Harbaugh did alright and some of the young guys haven't had a true shot yet to be evaluated...but keep in mind the percentage is intuitive.

#3. If you include guys drafted #33 through #40, that percentage actually jumps up as you can include guys like Brett Favre, Randall Cunningham, and Boomer Esiason.

#4. The top QB chosen, given that he is picked prior to pick #20, is about 6/10 for having good careers so far given that you can't really evaluate David Carr or Carson Palmer yet. But that only means the percentage can go UP. Chad Pennington, Mike Vick, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, and Drew Bledsoe were all first choice QBs...and the jury is still out I feel on both David Carr and Carson Palmer, so for all we know it could go up to 8 of 10 with Shuler and Klingler being the only busts

#5. I'm looking right now at the names of guys who were the 2nd QB taken in the draft, but still drafted #12 overall or higher (there are no #13 through #20 names or I would have counted them too). Of 12 total, four maybe five have done pretty well with their careers, maybe six depending on what you count as "well" I think this is concerning for those wanting to draft Roethlisberger...because Donovan McNabb is the best name on the list BY FAR...and I'm counting Byron Leftwich who I think will have a brilliant career. Mostly this list seems like a bunch of Rick Mirer's, Todd Blackledges, and Trent Dilfers. I think the only championships won by this group is Jim McMahon.

#6. I'm just kinda lookin in general at second tier QB guys, the kinda category where ya count someone like Rivers or Losman, prolly Schaub, and its very very hit or miss. You're either gettin Dan Marino, Brett Favre, or Boomer Esiason, or you're gettin like a complete nobody. The journeyman tweeners are like Harbaugh, Cunningham, Plummer. Strictly speaking of 28 names I'm starin at the only ones remembered for posterity are Marino, Esiason, Kelly, O'Brien, and Favre. There's prolly like 4 other names you can jot down as guys who bounced around, did alright here or there, stayed alive in the league etc but never did anything meaningful.

Overall, I'm lookin at the #1 QBs in the draft and I'm seein names like Manning, Pennington, McNair, Bledsoe, Elway...and I'm just thinkin, these are championship caliber guys ya know? There's room on that list for another Manning I think, and since we've already got a pretty good team in place that is exactly why I think it would be a good idea for us to draft a #1 guy....whereas a David Carr or Tim Couch might have been hampered by the lack of overall weapons or help on their team, with the talent we have here in Miami and the front office we have, I think drafting Eli would be a good idea for even the near term future.
 
Either QB is a definite step above Rivers, Losman, and Schaub.

I don't think two first rounders is too expensive for Roethlisberger, which is what it would take. For Eli Manning three first rounders? Is it worth it?
 
I do agree that Eli would cost probably about 3 first rounders. But, maybe it is worth it...to us. You gotta ask if you think this is a team that can afford giving up 3 first round picks. I think we are a team that can afford that. We've operated virtually without first round picks for almost a decade now considering the disasters of Yatil and Avery.
 
no.....

he is on WQAM.com

look for the schedule there...remember that the times are eastern time
 
Originally posted by RUDEbyallMEANS
560 WQAM is the sporting news station.. I'm listening to the link the "thread starter" gave out..

I'll check out the times..
Click to expand...
560 WQAM is virtually the only sports talk programming we have. There's another competitor, but they mainly broadcast national stuff. They do the Dolphins, Marlins, and Panthers games, so 560 is the big dog. All their shows are local too except for some on the weekend.
 
What's all this 2 1st round pick talk coming from? Honestly, who is gonna give us a 1st and a 3rd for O-Gun? They'd be crazy, he hasn't proven he can do it by himself. The most likely scenario is we tag him and eventually sign him to a long-term deal. We rarely lose our good players.
 
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