Very obvious relationship between height and red zone efficiency. Overall, wide receivers who stand 6’3” or taller have converted over 27 percent of all red zone targets into scores, compared to 22 percent for receivers 6’0” or shorter - meaning on any given red zone target, a tall receiver is over 20 percent more likely to score than a short one. That’s a significant difference.
The numbers are even more distorted if we sort by weight. While wide receivers checking in below 196 pounds have converted fewer than 20.9 percent of their red zone targets into touchdowns, those weighing 217 pounds or more have recorded a 28.4 percent red zone touchdown rate. That means the heaviest receivers are 35.9 percent more likely than the lightest receivers to convert a red zone target into a touchdown.
That suggests that weight is a better predictor of wide receiver scoring than height, which is represented in the overall numbers. The strength of the correlation between wide receiver height and red zone efficiency is 0.29. That’s strong, but not nearly as high as the correlation coefficient for weight and red zone efficiency—0.40. Height and weight themselves are of course strongly correlated (0.73), so there’s really good evidence that while height certainly helps pass-catchers in the red zone, weight is more important.
I’m assuming the heaviest receivers are also the best in the red zone because they’re also usually the strongest. Height and leaping ability probably help in certain situations, but wide receivers see far more “regular” targets than jump balls. Because of that—the fact that heavier receivers can shield off defenders and use their bodies to help them make plays on the football—I think we see the numbers come out the way they do.
