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This Commentary was posted in the VIP area several months ago, so it is now out of date in some respects. The VIP version includes all of the video clips referenced herein, which obviously makes it easier to see and understand what I'm talking about here. For those interested in this kind of stuff, VIP membership is well worth it, not only for this post and the video clips, but for the higher level of analysis and discussion in there.
This is a follow up to my original Culpepper Manifesto, which can be found at:
http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=130336
As many on this site know, I was a big proponent of the Culpepper trade last past March. There was a lot of debate over Culpepper and Brees and it was a legitimate debate because they are both very good quarterbacks. It is also relatively rare for any good QB to become available, via trade or free agency.
While it was a reasonable debate as to which would be the better choice for this team, I was struck by all of the negative sentiment I was hearing about Culpepper. Not just that some people preferred Brees or thought that he was a better fit, but that so many people claimed that Culpepper was a “loser,” who was “stupid,” “inaccurate,” made “bad decisions” and couldn’t win a big game. In the course of this debate, I started analyzing the legitimacy of the various criticisms that I kept hearing. These started off as single topic posts, which I then cobbled together into what became the Culpepper Manifesto.
The Culpepper Manifesto started off as an advocacy piece in support of trading for Culpepper and when news of the trade hit, I kept the title (even though a manifesto denotes advocacy for something to happen in the future, rather than something that has already happened). The Culpepper Manifesto became something of a feel-good piece for a lot of Dolfans that had previously disliked Culpepper but would now have to learn to like him. Had I known how much attention it would get, I would have bothered to spell check it before posting it.
Despite the slow start this year, Culpepper’s career numbers are still among the best of any QB that has ever played the game. Nonetheless, many of the criticisms that I addressed in the Manifesto can still be heard throughout Finheaven and elsewhere. After a slow start to this season, all of those who disliked Culpepper before the trade and were temporarily silenced during the preseason have now come back in full force. Much of what I hear is the same stuff that I addressed in the Manifesto. The new criticisms du jour are that he holds onto the ball too long and he has lost all of his mobility and may never regain it.
There is no question that Daunte’s play during the first 4 weeks of this season was not what I, or any other Dolphins fan, hoped for. That said, I did not expect him to be ready to play this year until mid-season, which was the generally-accepted prognosis at the time of the trade. Nonetheless, as I said in the Manifesto, “The decision on a QB of the future should not hinge on whether he'll be at full strength at the beginning of this year (this goes for Brees too).” I figured that even after he did come back, that there would be a transition time of 4-6 weeks in which he’d be getting accustomed to the OL, his receivers and the new offense. By the time the schedules came out, the first half of the season looked so favorable, that I felt we’d still have a decent shot at making the playoffs, hopefully just as Daunte would be rounding into shape.
Even putting aside the fact that he came back several months before I expected, his performance in his first 4 games was not that far off from what I anticipated. His completion percentage of 60.4% was a few percentage points below his career average, but some drop-off was expected. His average per completion was a little under 7, which is about 10-15% below his career average. He threw 3 interceptions in 134 attempts (1 in every 45 attempts), which is very respectable. They were bad decisions, but every QB makes some of those. (I still think the stupidest pass I’ve ever seen in the NFL was Tom Brady’s interception to Ayanbadejo in the 2004 comeback game.). The 2 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD were below what I had expected, but I did not envision the offense as a whole to be as impotent as it has been.
A quarterback’s play is heavily influenced by those around him. This is true of every QB. During the 4 games that Daunte played, the Fins averaged 3.4 ypa on rushes by running backs (excluding gimmick plays, such as reverses, etc.). The offensive line gave up 21 sacks. Obviously, the more pressure a QB is under the more difficult it will be for him to be successful and for the team to be successful. The number of sacks allowed while Daunte was playing, however, has been portrayed by many as largely Daunte’s fault. The criticism now is that he is too slow to make decisions and holds onto the ball too long. The other criticism that I keep hearing is that he is a statue in the pocket, with no ability to avoid or escape pressure.
To evaluate the legitimacy of these criticisms, I have gone back to look at all of the plays on which Daunte was sacked. I owe a huge thanks to CrunchTime for making all of the video clips below, some of which he specifically made at my request. He put a ton of time into it. Before doing that, I expected to find that 4-5 were due to Daunte holding onto the ball too long, 2-3 due to his not realizing he doesn’t have his pre-injury mobility back yet, and 1 “Other” (the first fumble in the Buffalo game), with the rest being due to poor pass protection. As discussed below, my expectation was pretty accurate, although there were really only one or two sacks that I would consider to be Daunte’s fault.
Steelers 1Q, 10:03
It’s first and 10 early in the game. Joey Porter comes off the edge and Barnes barely alters his path to the QB. The clip is not in real time and there is no clock on the clip, but I’d say Porter definitely got there in 2.5 second or less. The fault for that sack clearly lies with the blocking, albeit not the OL. The sack makes it 2nd and 16 and, after a 9 yard completion to Welker, the drive ends with 4th and 7 and a punt.
Sack Fault Tally
Clearly Inadequate Blocking 1
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away 0
Holds Ball Too Long 0
Mobility 0
Other 0
Steelers 4Q, 2:50
It’s a 2nd and 10 play, with the Fins down 11 on its own 28 with less than 3 minutes to play. About 3 seconds into the play, Culpepper is in the defender’s arms. Brown is open at the end of the play on the lower portion of the screen. The protection is not very good at all, but Daunte had an opportunity to throw it away or dump it off to Brown. Considering that we were down 11 deep in our own territory with less than 3 minutes left, I can’t completely fault Daunte for looking downfield and trying to get something more substantial. It’s important to realize that there were 5 OL in blocking, plus McMichael, against a 4 man rush. That leaves only 4 “receivers” being covered by 7 defenders. Nonetheless, I’d say the sack was avoidable and would classify it as a “Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away.” This sets up a 3rd and 18, which Culpepper converts with a 19 yard completion to Chambers.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Steelers 4Q, 2:01
Similar to the play above. It’s 2nd and 20 following a holding penalty. We’re down 11 with just over 2 minutes left in the game and the ball on our own 29. Daunte had an opportunity to at least throw the ball away. On 2nd and 20, down 11 with 2 minutes left on one’s own 29, the “throw it away” option is not all that appealing. Here, there are 5 offensive linemen plus the RB and TE blocking a 5-man rush. That leaves only 3 receivers running pass routes being covered by 6 defenders – enough for each of them to be double covered. Since an incomplete pass at least stops the clock, it would have been better than the sack. Since I’ll almost certainly be criticized for being a Culpepper shill anyhow, I’ll err on the side of blaming Daunte. The sack results in 3rd and 28 and an eventual turnover on downs, from which the Steelers run out the clock in 3 plays.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Bills 1Q, 12:40
Second and 7 early in the game. Daunte drops back to throw and the ball slips out of his hand. There’s no one to blame but Daunte, but it has nothing to do with his holding the ball too long or a lack of mobility. This one goes in the “Other” category. This was followed by the sack below, and the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Bills 1Q, 12:01
Third and 16 after the play above. The stunt on the right side of the Bills’ DL completely baffles Shelton and James and the DT has a virtually unimpeded shot at Culpepper. Daunte is able to side step the DT and is escaping when the DE from the left side, who Carey couldn’t handle, comes around for the sack. This one is an inadequate blocking (x2) sack. While it’s possible that the old Daunte may have escaped the LDE, I think the LDE had enough of a head of steam that even the pre-injury Daunte would have been sacked on that one. The drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Bills 1Q, 9:38
Second and 6. Daunte stumbles in his backpedal, but the DL is free in the backfield before Daunte even has a chance to set up. The pre-injury Daunte may have been able to get away from this one, but few other NFL QBs could. This clearly had nothing to do with holding onto the ball too long. I could split the blame here on inadequate blocking and mobility, but since so few QBs would have escaped that pressure, I think it is more appropriately attributed to inadequate blocking. The sack makes it 3rd and 15 and, after a 5 yard completion, the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Bills 2Q, 14:00
First and 10 play. The DB comes in on the blitz completely untouched. Clearly an inadequate blocking sack. This play was followed by an illegal formation penalty, resulting in 2nd and 26, and that play results in the sack below and a 3rd and 32. Culpepper completes a 19 yarder to McMichael, but it is not enough and the drive ends with a missed 55 yard field goal.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Bills 2Q, 13:50
2nd and 26. The RDE makes in inside move (not even that much of one) and blows by Shelton. Culpepper might have been able to throw it away while the DE was wrapped around his ankle. While not really mobility-related, I think Daunte’s mind-set is that he could escape from that. Considering that throwing the ball away would have resulted in an automatic 3rd and 26, that is not a tremendously appealing option. Nonetheless, it would have saved 6 yards on the ensuing field goal attempt. This play is a four man rush with 5 OL blocking. Ronnie Brown goes out on a delay, but doesn’t turn to look for a pass before the rusher has Culpepper in his grasp. This is bad blocking, but he had a chance to throw it away while the DE had him by the ankles. This play results in 3rd and 32. Culpepper completes a 19 yarder to McMichael, but it is not enough and the drive ends with a missed 55 yard field goal.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Bills 4Q, 15:00
First and 15, following a false start penalty, at the beginning of the 4th quarter and down by 16. Daunte has some time in the pocket. Not a lot of time, but some. Unfortunately, to get that little bit of time, it took 5 OLs plus the RB and the TE to stay in blocking against a 4-man rush. That means we had 3 receivers being covered by 7 defenders. I’m very hesitant to assume that a receiver was open under those circumstances. Nonetheless, to err on the side of blaming Culpepper, I’ll split this one between “Poor Blocking But Could Throw it Away” and mobility – the pre-injury Daunte might have been able to get away from that. This play is followed by a 13 yard completion on 2nd and 19, but the sack below occurs on 3rd down and the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Bills 4Q, 14:06
Third and 6, down by 16. This is a tough one. The play starts at 14:08, and at 14:06 one of the pass rushers is diving at his ankles. We are in max protect here again – 5 OLs plus Brown and McMichael – against a 5-man rush. Despite the max protect, the blocking wasn’t good and I don’t think Daunte can really be faulted to trying to get away from the rusher. I’m also unwilling to assume that one of the 3 receivers was open when being covered by 6 defenders. I don’t know if mobility was really an issue here – I think he probably did about as much as he could have done (even pre-injury) to minimize the loss.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Titans 1Q, 11:55
First and 10 early in the game. The LDE blows past Carey. There was nothing Culpepper could have done to avoid that sack. After a 10 yard completion on 2nd and 19 and an incomplete pass on 3rd and 9, the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Titans 2Q, 2:48
Second and 9. Haynesworth blows around the left side of the Dolphins OL. The pre-injury Daunte might have been able to get away from that one, but I’m not so sure. Haynesworth has good quickness and a pretty good head start on Daunte. I’ll split it between inadequate blocking and mobility, but it definitely has nothing to do with holding onto the ball too long. A five yard completion on 3rd and 17 isn’t enough and the drive ends with a missed 30-yard field goal by Mare.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Titans 3Q, 4:12
Third and 5 play. This is another tough one. The difficulty is that Hadnot gets dominated and pushed back all the way into the pocket and the other inside rusher also comes free up the middle. It’s tough to step up and throw it in that kind of situation, and there is no where to run around the end. We had 6 men in blocking on this one, but I can’t tell from this angle whether they were rushing 4 or 5. Either way, I think this is an inadequate blocking sack. The drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Titans 4Q, 10:06
First and 10. The left DE blows around the corner and almost gets there before Daunte does. Culpepper steps up and tries to escape to the right, but the DT is right there. I don’t think the pre-injury Daunte or many other QBs would have escaped that one. After 2 completions for 15 yards, the drive ends with a punt on 4th and 4.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Titans 4Q, 5:05
Second and 10 play. Here, the play is clearly a hitch and go, with a planned pump fake to Chambers at the top of the screen. Chambers turns for a moment, but with no expectation of getting the short pass. The linebacker at the top of the screen sets up in coverage right in front of Chambers and the corner does come up and bite on the pump fake. Throwing it to Chambers at that point likely would have been a disaster – probably a TD going back the other way. Bullock is unblocked and has a free shot at Daunte from what has become his blind side. I find it very hard to criticize Daunte for holding onto the ball too long here. The drive ends with a 39 yard field goal.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Texans 1Q, 14:52
First and 10, first offensive play of the game. The blitzing DB comes in completely unblocked. Culpepper might have had a split second to dump it off, but the lion’s share of the blame here is clearly on the blocking/blitz pickup. The drive ends on a punt after an 11 yard completion on 3rd and 20.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Texans 2Q, 14:27
First and 10. This one Daunte gets a reasonable amount of time, although it took 7 blockers to do it. That leaves 3 receivers to choose from. I don’t know if there were any open receivers. To err on the side of blaming Daunte, I’ll assume someone was open and conclude that Daunte just holds the ball too long. With that assumption, which may or may not be true, this is the clearest example yet of Daunte holding onto the ball too long. Even so, it is not that egregious an example. This play was followed up by 2 consecutive penalties on McIntosh for 15 yards (one of which wiped out a 17 yard gain), resulting in a 2nd and 30. After two completions for 18 yards, the drive ends on a 52 yard field goal by Mare.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Texans 2Q, 2:46
First and 10 at the Houston 37. The blitzer and the left DE come around the corner almost completely unimpeded. Daunte steps up to avoid the outside pressure and the DT is right there. This one was due to inadequate blocking. The drive ends on a punt from the Houston 42.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Texans 4Q, 14:54
First and 10. The blitzing LB comes in untouched. When Daunte sidesteps him, Mario Williams just happens to be right there and falls into his first NFL sack. Clearly an inadequate blocking sack.. After another sack on the following play (see below), the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
Texans 4Q, 14:20
Second and 13. This one is a tough call. Daunte has some time on this one, but not a ton of time. The play starts at 14:20 and the first of several rushers to get to Daunte has him by the legs with the clock at 14:17. That is Hadnot’s man, who has completely driven Rex backwards 8 yards right into Daunte. That makes it tough to step up and throw. We have 6 men blocking the 5-man rush, leaving 4 receivers to choose from. Are any of them open? One can’t tell from this clip, but let’s again assume that there was at least someone in whose direction Daunte could have thrown the ball away without incurring an intentional grounding penalty. This could probably go either way, so I’ll split the blame on this one. The drive ends on a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
Holds Ball Too Long
Mobility
Other
That’s the final tally. Another play was ruled a sack after the fact, but I’m not sure what play that was and don’t have a clip for it. More than 10 of the sacks were complete blocking breakdowns. Six of them came on plays where a blitzer came in untouched or with little more than the “matador” treatment. On a few of those, Daunte managed to avoid the initial blitzer but was then quickly wrapped up by another rusher who had come free from a block. Two of the sacks came on plays in which Hadnot got embarrassingly dominated and was completely driven back into the pocket.
My tally has 6 sacks that were caused by poor blocking, but where Daunte at least had a chance to throw the ball away. Most of them came in max protect situations against a 4 or 5 man rush, thus permitting the defense to double cover all of the receivers. By my count, only 1.5 of the 20 sacks were due to Daunte holding the ball too long.
Sacks in which the QB has some reasonable time to throw used to be called “coverage sacks.” I’m pretty sure they still are in 31 NFL cities. Although never a desired result, there had never been any particular shame in a QB taking a coverage sack. That is because the alternative, in many situations, is an interception. Throwing the interception is definitely not a good decision and almost surely would have resulted in even more nonsensical noise about Daunte not being a good decision-maker.
Many looked at the reduction in sacks when Harrington came in as proof that the sacks were Culpepper’s fault. As indicated above, very few of them were. While Harrington has always gotten rid of the ball quickly and he has generally done so in the games he has started, the pass protection has been much, much better over the last few weeks. When Harrington has seen pressure comparable to what Daunte faced, he has been sacked too.
[In the VIP version, this portion compares video clips of Daunte sacks and Harrington sacks that indicate, at least in my opinion, that when Harrington faced similar pressure, he too was sacked. Some of the video clips are remarkably similar. This is followed by clips showing Harrington had plenty of time on most of his positive plays, in contrast to the conditions Daunte faced in the first few games.]
As the video clips show, when Harrington faced the kind of pressure Daunte faced, he too was sacked. When he was successful throwing the ball downfield, he had plenty of time to throw. The numbers bear this out.
According to the passing splits at si.com, in 4 games, Daunte was sacked 21 times and got off 31 passes under pressure in the first 4 games. That’s 52 pass attempts in which he was under pressure out of 155 total pass attempts (134 attempts plus 21 sacks). Daunte was under pressure in one out of every 3 times he dropped back to pass.
Through 8 games, Harrington was sacked 5 times and pressured 33 times in 183 dropbacks, a rate of one for every 4.8 dropbacks. For the sake of reference, the following QBs were sacked or threw a pass under pressure at the following rates through Week 9:
Tom Brady (279/55 = one per 5.1 attempts)
Peyton Manning (291/54 = 5.4)
Drew Brees (292/52 = 5.6)
Carson Palmer (281/76 = 3.7)
Donovan McNabb (297/65 = 4.6)
Marc Bulger (314/63 = 5)
Jake Delhomme (298/71 = 4.2)
The pressure rate that Joey has seen through his first 4 starts has been pretty consistent with what the top QBs have faced. In other words, a QB can be successful in that environment. None of the top QBs have faced anywhere near the pressure that Daunte faced. If you have any doubt about how pressure affects a QBs performance, take a look at how some of the top QBs have performed when under pressure through Week 9.
Tom Brady – 9/43, 75 yards, 1 TDs, 3 INTs, 12 sacks, 18.3 QB Rating
Peyton Manning – 23/44, 325 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 10 sacks, 99.2 QB Rating
Drew Brees – 22/44, 239 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 8 sacks, 70.2 QB Rating
Palmer – 17/53, 220 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 23 sacks, 43.0 QB Rating
McNabb – 19/45, 213 yards, 2 TD, ) INT, 20 sacks, 71.8 QB Rating
Bulger – 18/39, 274 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 24 sacks, 78.4 QB Rating
Delhomme – 17/53, 136 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 18 sacks, 9.9 QB Rating
[BTW, the performance of Mr. Cool, Tom Brady, under pressure, is pretty remarkable. Nine completions in 43 attempts for 75 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs? Note: Brady finished the year having completed only 17 of 74 for 147 yards, 1 TD and 5 INTs, for a QB rating of 15.9.]
When he was able to get the ball off under pressure, Daunte completed 14 of 31, for 220 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. While not eye-popping numbers, they are generally consistent with how the other top QBs fared under such circumstances – better than some, not quite as good as some others. Through Week 9, Harrington has completed 14 of 33, for 200 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT when under pressure.
Mobility
As I suspected, lack of mobility had very little to do with the sacks Daunte took. While there were 2-3 in which one could speculate about whether Daunte would have avoided them before the injury, none were clear cut in my opinion. Similarly, very few, if any, of these sacks would have been escaped from by an NFL QB with average mobility. Maybe Michael Vick or Vince Young might have gotten away from a few of them, but that’s about it.
As shown on the video clips above, Daunte did move in the pocket and was able to avoid several free pass rushers only to get wrapped up by another one. On several other plays, however, Daunte was able to use his mobility to evade pressure and make some positive plays.
I keep hearing people say that Daunte was a statute out there, with no ability to make anything happen with his feet. I hear others say that they didn’t see anything from Daunte that would lead them to believe he has a decent chance of regaining his pre-injury mobility (notwithstanding the fact that he came back several months before he was expected to). I just don’t see it that way, or anything close to that. On the contrary, there were numerous plays in which Daunte did use his feet to turn a negative play into a positive one. Several of these are shown and discussed below. Considering that he was out there 10 months after the injury (McGahee didn’t play for 21 months after the injury), I think there is every reason to think that he will regain much, if not all, of his pre-injury mobility.
Texans 4Q, 2:12
Daunte avoids the sack, gets out of the pocket, gives McMichael time to get open and completes the pass for 22 yards.
Texans 1Q, 10:49
Culpepper escapes from 2 pass rushers, gets out of the pocket, and completes the pass to brown for a 9 yard gain.
Bills 3Q, 9:17
Daunte escapes from pressure and rushes for a gain of 7.
Steelers 3Q, 8:30
Daunte escapes from pressure and hits Booker for a 50 yard gain.
Steelers 4Q, 8:28
Daunte tucks it and runs for a 5-yard gain.
Titans 3Q, 9:00
Daunte runs it in from 6 yards out.
The plays above easily could have been a sack with a less mobile and/or physically weaker QB. If Daunte was to blame for holding the ball too long on 1 or 2 of the sacks, he should get credit for escaping from pressure and making something happen on the 6 plays above.
Impact of 3rd and Very Long
Now that I think it’s clear that the vast majority of the sacks that Daunte took were not his fault, we can focus on the impact those sacks had on the offense. The biggest impact was in leaving the Fins in 3rd and very long situations, i.e., 3rd and 11 or more. Third and 11+ is the number that they track for statistical purposes, but that really understates the problem that Daunte faced. The average yardage needed in these situations in weeks 1-4 was 18.7 yards and the shortest distance needed was 13 yards (once).
Third and nearly 19 is very, very difficult to convert on a consistent basis, especially when the protection isn’t good enough to provide enough time to effectively throw the ball downfield. Sure enough, Daunte was only able to convert 1 out of 13 3rd and 13+ situations. That resulted in 12 failed drives in 4 games, which is roughly 25% of the Dolphins’ offensive possessions during that time period.
When faced with 3rd down situations and less than 11 yards to go, Daunte was quite effective. He converted 14 of 30 such attempts, which comes out to 46.6%. That would rank 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down conversions behind only the Colts. It would have been 2nd last year too, behind only the Colts at 48.7%. Daunte’s QB rating on 3rd and less than 11 this year is also quite respectable – 98.9.
If, as I believe, the OL has settled in (after some personnel shuffling) and improved its pass protection, we should have a lot fewer 3rd and very longs. Indeed, in 5 games, Harrington has faced only 6 3rd and 11+ situations (and converted none of them). With Daunte at QB, having a lot fewer 3rd and longs would dramatically improve the overall 3rd down conversion rate and, consequently, the success of the offense.
Decision-Making
There has been a lot of criticism of Daunte’s decision-making too. It isn’t entirely clear to me what this is referring to. From some people, it seemed to refer to his “decisions” to take sacks instead of getting rid of the ball. As discussed above, I don’t think that is a fair criticism. Not even close. Even with regard to those few situations where he arguably held the ball longer than he needed to (and those were close calls), the “decision” to take a sack is not always a bad one. The alternatives – interceptions and intentional grounding penalties – can be much worse.
Maybe someone with aerial view game films could make that call on those few sacks, but one simply cannot make that criticism in a meaningful way based on the film we get from the TV feed. I am 99.9% sure that Jimmy Johnson was out on his boat sipping margaritas, and not in an office breaking down coach’s tape, when he made his comments about Daunte’s poor decision-making.
The other type of poor decision-making that comes to mind is interceptions. The fact that the defender ended up catching the ball means there was a defender too close to the receiver and that often means that throwing the pass was a bad decision.
Of course, there are exceptions. Harrington has had a few interceptions where there was no problem with the decision, but the ball got tipped and intercepted anyhow. Every QB throws interceptions and every QB makes a bad decision on a pass from time to time. At least two of Daunte’s 3 interceptions were poor decisions and I’m still undecided (after numerous reviews) about Polamalu’s pick. When I can’t decide with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and numerous video reviews, I’m pretty hesitant to place too much blame on the QB who had a split second to make the decision with numerous 300+ lb. men bearing down on him.
Steelers 4Q, 5:52
Chambers does appear to come open for a second, but there are also 3 defenders in a semi-circle around him. The pass rush is coming pretty hard from the left side of the DL. Maybe, if thrown a fraction of a second earlier, he could have squeezed it in there. I don’t know.
But for the sake of argument here, let’s say that all 3 of the interceptions were bad decisions. Although I understand that we were down by 11 deep in our own territory with less than 3 minutes left for the second of the Steeler interceptions, I’m not giving Daunte a free pass on that basis. The interception against Buffalo was clearly a very bad decision.
In 165 dropbacks (134 pass attempts, 21 sacks and 10 rushes), Daunte threw 3 interceptions. That’s one for every 55 dropbacks. That is not an excessive number of bad decisions by any means. If you don’t include the Polamalu pick, it is one bad decision in every 82.5 dropbacks, which is very good. As a point of reference, Marino had 8,929 dropbacks in his career (8,358 attempts, 270 sacks and 301 rushes) and threw 252 interceptions – one every 35.4 dropbacks. I have no recollection of Marino suffering from a disproportionate number of tipped interceptions or from interceptions where the decision to throw was good, but the pass was thrown so inaccurately that it ended up going to a defender.Was Marino a bad decision-maker?
And while Dan did have that great, quick release that helped avoid sacks, he never faced the kind of pressure that Daunte had this year. For much of Marino’s career he had a HOF center (Stephenson) and/or a perennial All Pro left tackle (Webb). I think we can all agree that Daunte has not had that this year. The point is that Marino’s 1 interception for every 35.4 dropbacks was generally under a lot less pressure than Daunte faced in his first 4 games.
Harrington has 7 picks in 153 dropbacks (146 pass attempts, 5 sacks and 2 rushes). Excluding those that were tipped, he has 3 bad decision interceptions in those 153 dropbacks – roughly the same rate as Daunte, if you include the Polamalu interception. Notably, however, I have not heard a single person criticizing Joey for his decision-making (and rightfully so).
The “bad decision maker” criticism seems to be a sub-species of the “lacks intelligence” or “can’t read defenses” criticisms addressed in the original Culpepper Manifesto. You simply can’t put up the numbers Daunte has over his career if you are not intelligent or can’t read defenses. You similarly cannot put up those numbers if you are a bad decision-maker.
While I hate to say it, I suspect it is a race thing. People will get angry about my bringing race into this, but name one white QB with a career QB rating over 90 who gets criticized for not being able to read defenses or for making too many bad decisions. OK, that’s a bit of a trick question, since there are only 3 other QBs with career QB ratings over 90. So make it a rating of 80. Is there a single white QB with a career rating over 80 who gets criticized for not being able to read defenses or for making too many poor decisions? None? Fine, go down to 75. Still none.
Be Patient
Although not what I had hoped for, Culpepper’s performance in his first 4 games was not that far off from what I expected. There is nothing uncommon about a QB on a new team struggling in his first few games with a new OL, new receivers and a new offensive coordinator. While there have been QBs that have switched teams without tremendous growing pains, that does not mean that some struggles in the first few games means that there won’t be improvement after that. Trent Green had a QB rating of 71.1 in his first year in Kansas City, but had a rating of 92.6 in his second year there. Mark Brunell’s rating his first year in Washington was 63.9, but went up to 85.9 the following year. Matt Hasselbeck had a 70.9 rating his first year in Seattle, but an 87.8 the following year.
When you look at Daunte’s numbers in the first 4 games, the only real deficiency was TDs. His completion percentage, yards per attempt and interception rate were all respectable. Not great, but respectable. Even the TD figure is a bit misleading. One was taken away on the pass to Chambers at the goal line against the Titans. Daunte ended up running it in, but that doesn’t show up in the passing stats. He also had a TD dropped by Chambers in the Steelers game:
Steelers 2Q, 00:40
The ball is properly placed in light of the location of the defender and hits Chambers in the hands and the facemask.
Daunte easily could have had 4 TDs in those first 4 games. No, that’s not great, but had Chambers caught that pass and the officials ruled the Chambers catch in the Titans game a TD, Daunte’s QB rating over those first 4 games would have been 87.2. While that’s not up to his previous standards, it is pretty respectable. It also illustrates how small a sample size 4 games is. Two plays can change a QB’s rating by 10 points. And let’s face it, this offense (excluding the QB position) is hardly a well-oiled machine. Harrington has not played badly and we still have struggled mightily to put up points.
Brees
This brings us back to the Brees comparison. Brees is a very good QB and has played well in New Orleans. That, however, does not mean he would have played well here. Moreover, his performance there has not been quite as good as it may look on paper. Let’s focus on his first 4 games, so it provides a fair comparison to Daunte’s.
In the first 4 games, Brees completed 90 of 137 for 1063, 4 TDs and 2 INTs, for a QB rating of 92.8. He also lost 2 fumbles, which don’t show up in his passer rating. If you treat those 2 fumbles as interceptions (they have the same effect), his passer rating comes down to 85.5, which is lower than Culpepper’s rating if he’s credited with the two extra TDs. One of Brees’ 4 TDs was a “garbage time” 86 yarder to Marques Colston with 1:15 left in the game when they were down by 11. If you take that TD out of the equation, his QB rating comes down to 80.5.
But isn’t this just facile statistical manipulation? Yes. I’m not suggesting that we should pretend that certain things that didn’t happen happened or that other things that did happen didn’t. It does illustrate, however, how a 4 game sample is too small and too easily influenced by one or two plays to enable one to draw meaningful conclusions about how one might perform over a longer haul. That is true even if they played under identical conditions, which they have not. As discussed above, Brees has faced pressure only half as frequently as Daunte has this year. He also has a pretty nice stable of RBs (Bush and McAllister) and some pretty good receivers.
Even if you are convinced that Brees truly played better than Culpepper and would have under the same conditions Culpepper faced, that he had more success sooner does not mean that Brees was the better choice in the long run.That kind of thinking would have led one to think that Charlie Batch was going to be a vastly superior QB to Peyton Manning after their rookie year in 1998. Batch’s QB rating was 83.5, compared to Manning’s 71.2. That kind of thinking might have made one comparing the numbers of the Cowboys’ two rookie QBs in 1989 to keep Steve Walsh and trade away Troy Aikman.
Similarly, one with that mindset would have concluded that Ken O’Brien would be a much better QB than John Elway after their first year or two in the NFL. He who has success first does not necessarily have it most or longest.
What To Do Now
After leading two scoring drives in the last 10 minutes of the Texans game, it was announced in the middle of the following week that Daunte was experiencing problems with his shoulder. Harrington would get the next start and the two after that. A lot of contradictory and illogical statements came out of Saban’s mouth regarding Daunte’s status. I don’t believe much of what was said, but my purpose here is not to try to decode or decipher what was really going on. I have no inside knowledge of what was really going on behind closed doors. I just don’t know. [Note: With the events surrounding Saban's departure, I think most people would agree that what he says or said is hardly the gospel]. What I do know is that we have continued to lose games, with little offensive firepower.
While his statistics are awful, I don’t think Harrington has looked that bad. It is clear that, even with the recent OL improvement, this offense still just isn’t right. The question now is what to do about Daunte for the remainder of the year. The season is all but completely lost from a playoffs perspective. This team needs to see what it can do to improve and to get a picture of what it needs to do in the offseason. For those reasons, Daunte needs to play.
The team has consistently said, from the beginning of camp, that Daunte was not at increased risk of re-injuring the knee. Assuming that to be true (I am not an orthopedic specialist), there is no reason not to put Daunte back in and get him more comfortable with this offense and his receivers. As discussed (with video illustration) at length above, Daunte was not taking additional punishment because of any perceived lack of mobility, nor was any perceived lack of mobility hurting the team as a result of his taking an unnecessary number of sacks.While there was about a 48 hour period when Saban said Daunte’s benching was due to his shoulder, he subsequently said it is about the knee, not the shoulder.
For the last several weeks there has been absolutely no mention of any shoulder problems. If the concern is that Daunte may be bumped around or bruised, he will certainly have ample time to heal from that before next season begins. If the concern is that he may suffer a more significant injury in a freak accident, etc. then better to know that going into the offseason. Injuries are a part of the game. If a 340 lb DT rolls over his knee (even his previously uninjured left knee), he’ll be injured and out for a long time. The same is true of Joey or any other QB. You can’t not play your franchise QB for fear that a freak injury might occur.
It looks fairly likely that the Fins will be picking pretty high in the draft. Questions may arise as to whether to take a QB high in the draft (Brady Quinn?) or spend money on a QB in free agency.
To best answer those questions, we need to see as much of Daunte as possible this year. I think we’ll see improvement over time, that his mobility is fine, and that he is, indeed, our QB of the future. If that is the case, then let’s find out as soon as possible and use our draft and free agency capital on one of our numerous other positions of need.
If he doesn’t show improvement this year, that will not mean that he can’t or won’t be our QB of the future, but it will leave that question open (in some people’s minds) during the offseason. But at least we’ll have a better picture of Daunte’s future with this team than we do now, and the team will be able to plan accordingly.
[That's it. As mentioned at the top, this was written several months ago. Obviously, Daunte did not play in the closing weeks of the season and we still have questions about the QB position. Nonetheless, the suggestion that we should give up on him after 4 weeks whent he OL was horrible, he was not fully recovered from the knee injury, the play-calling and offense as a whole was miserable (all season long), etc. is ridiculous, especially if you actually look at the video clips.]
This is a follow up to my original Culpepper Manifesto, which can be found at:
http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=130336
As many on this site know, I was a big proponent of the Culpepper trade last past March. There was a lot of debate over Culpepper and Brees and it was a legitimate debate because they are both very good quarterbacks. It is also relatively rare for any good QB to become available, via trade or free agency.
While it was a reasonable debate as to which would be the better choice for this team, I was struck by all of the negative sentiment I was hearing about Culpepper. Not just that some people preferred Brees or thought that he was a better fit, but that so many people claimed that Culpepper was a “loser,” who was “stupid,” “inaccurate,” made “bad decisions” and couldn’t win a big game. In the course of this debate, I started analyzing the legitimacy of the various criticisms that I kept hearing. These started off as single topic posts, which I then cobbled together into what became the Culpepper Manifesto.
The Culpepper Manifesto started off as an advocacy piece in support of trading for Culpepper and when news of the trade hit, I kept the title (even though a manifesto denotes advocacy for something to happen in the future, rather than something that has already happened). The Culpepper Manifesto became something of a feel-good piece for a lot of Dolfans that had previously disliked Culpepper but would now have to learn to like him. Had I known how much attention it would get, I would have bothered to spell check it before posting it.
Despite the slow start this year, Culpepper’s career numbers are still among the best of any QB that has ever played the game. Nonetheless, many of the criticisms that I addressed in the Manifesto can still be heard throughout Finheaven and elsewhere. After a slow start to this season, all of those who disliked Culpepper before the trade and were temporarily silenced during the preseason have now come back in full force. Much of what I hear is the same stuff that I addressed in the Manifesto. The new criticisms du jour are that he holds onto the ball too long and he has lost all of his mobility and may never regain it.
There is no question that Daunte’s play during the first 4 weeks of this season was not what I, or any other Dolphins fan, hoped for. That said, I did not expect him to be ready to play this year until mid-season, which was the generally-accepted prognosis at the time of the trade. Nonetheless, as I said in the Manifesto, “The decision on a QB of the future should not hinge on whether he'll be at full strength at the beginning of this year (this goes for Brees too).” I figured that even after he did come back, that there would be a transition time of 4-6 weeks in which he’d be getting accustomed to the OL, his receivers and the new offense. By the time the schedules came out, the first half of the season looked so favorable, that I felt we’d still have a decent shot at making the playoffs, hopefully just as Daunte would be rounding into shape.
Even putting aside the fact that he came back several months before I expected, his performance in his first 4 games was not that far off from what I anticipated. His completion percentage of 60.4% was a few percentage points below his career average, but some drop-off was expected. His average per completion was a little under 7, which is about 10-15% below his career average. He threw 3 interceptions in 134 attempts (1 in every 45 attempts), which is very respectable. They were bad decisions, but every QB makes some of those. (I still think the stupidest pass I’ve ever seen in the NFL was Tom Brady’s interception to Ayanbadejo in the 2004 comeback game.). The 2 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD were below what I had expected, but I did not envision the offense as a whole to be as impotent as it has been.
A quarterback’s play is heavily influenced by those around him. This is true of every QB. During the 4 games that Daunte played, the Fins averaged 3.4 ypa on rushes by running backs (excluding gimmick plays, such as reverses, etc.). The offensive line gave up 21 sacks. Obviously, the more pressure a QB is under the more difficult it will be for him to be successful and for the team to be successful. The number of sacks allowed while Daunte was playing, however, has been portrayed by many as largely Daunte’s fault. The criticism now is that he is too slow to make decisions and holds onto the ball too long. The other criticism that I keep hearing is that he is a statue in the pocket, with no ability to avoid or escape pressure.
To evaluate the legitimacy of these criticisms, I have gone back to look at all of the plays on which Daunte was sacked. I owe a huge thanks to CrunchTime for making all of the video clips below, some of which he specifically made at my request. He put a ton of time into it. Before doing that, I expected to find that 4-5 were due to Daunte holding onto the ball too long, 2-3 due to his not realizing he doesn’t have his pre-injury mobility back yet, and 1 “Other” (the first fumble in the Buffalo game), with the rest being due to poor pass protection. As discussed below, my expectation was pretty accurate, although there were really only one or two sacks that I would consider to be Daunte’s fault.
Steelers 1Q, 10:03
It’s first and 10 early in the game. Joey Porter comes off the edge and Barnes barely alters his path to the QB. The clip is not in real time and there is no clock on the clip, but I’d say Porter definitely got there in 2.5 second or less. The fault for that sack clearly lies with the blocking, albeit not the OL. The sack makes it 2nd and 16 and, after a 9 yard completion to Welker, the drive ends with 4th and 7 and a punt.
Sack Fault Tally
Clearly Inadequate Blocking 1
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away 0
Holds Ball Too Long 0
Mobility 0
Other 0
Steelers 4Q, 2:50
It’s a 2nd and 10 play, with the Fins down 11 on its own 28 with less than 3 minutes to play. About 3 seconds into the play, Culpepper is in the defender’s arms. Brown is open at the end of the play on the lower portion of the screen. The protection is not very good at all, but Daunte had an opportunity to throw it away or dump it off to Brown. Considering that we were down 11 deep in our own territory with less than 3 minutes left, I can’t completely fault Daunte for looking downfield and trying to get something more substantial. It’s important to realize that there were 5 OL in blocking, plus McMichael, against a 4 man rush. That leaves only 4 “receivers” being covered by 7 defenders. Nonetheless, I’d say the sack was avoidable and would classify it as a “Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away.” This sets up a 3rd and 18, which Culpepper converts with a 19 yard completion to Chambers.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
1
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
1
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0
Other
0
Steelers 4Q, 2:01
Similar to the play above. It’s 2nd and 20 following a holding penalty. We’re down 11 with just over 2 minutes left in the game and the ball on our own 29. Daunte had an opportunity to at least throw the ball away. On 2nd and 20, down 11 with 2 minutes left on one’s own 29, the “throw it away” option is not all that appealing. Here, there are 5 offensive linemen plus the RB and TE blocking a 5-man rush. That leaves only 3 receivers running pass routes being covered by 6 defenders – enough for each of them to be double covered. Since an incomplete pass at least stops the clock, it would have been better than the sack. Since I’ll almost certainly be criticized for being a Culpepper shill anyhow, I’ll err on the side of blaming Daunte. The sack results in 3rd and 28 and an eventual turnover on downs, from which the Steelers run out the clock in 3 plays.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
1
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
2
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0
Other
0
Bills 1Q, 12:40
Second and 7 early in the game. Daunte drops back to throw and the ball slips out of his hand. There’s no one to blame but Daunte, but it has nothing to do with his holding the ball too long or a lack of mobility. This one goes in the “Other” category. This was followed by the sack below, and the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
1
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
2
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0
Other
1
Bills 1Q, 12:01
Third and 16 after the play above. The stunt on the right side of the Bills’ DL completely baffles Shelton and James and the DT has a virtually unimpeded shot at Culpepper. Daunte is able to side step the DT and is escaping when the DE from the left side, who Carey couldn’t handle, comes around for the sack. This one is an inadequate blocking (x2) sack. While it’s possible that the old Daunte may have escaped the LDE, I think the LDE had enough of a head of steam that even the pre-injury Daunte would have been sacked on that one. The drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
2
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
2
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0
Other
1
Bills 1Q, 9:38
Second and 6. Daunte stumbles in his backpedal, but the DL is free in the backfield before Daunte even has a chance to set up. The pre-injury Daunte may have been able to get away from this one, but few other NFL QBs could. This clearly had nothing to do with holding onto the ball too long. I could split the blame here on inadequate blocking and mobility, but since so few QBs would have escaped that pressure, I think it is more appropriately attributed to inadequate blocking. The sack makes it 3rd and 15 and, after a 5 yard completion, the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
3
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
2
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0
Other
1
Bills 2Q, 14:00
First and 10 play. The DB comes in on the blitz completely untouched. Clearly an inadequate blocking sack. This play was followed by an illegal formation penalty, resulting in 2nd and 26, and that play results in the sack below and a 3rd and 32. Culpepper completes a 19 yarder to McMichael, but it is not enough and the drive ends with a missed 55 yard field goal.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
4
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
2
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0
Other
1
Bills 2Q, 13:50
2nd and 26. The RDE makes in inside move (not even that much of one) and blows by Shelton. Culpepper might have been able to throw it away while the DE was wrapped around his ankle. While not really mobility-related, I think Daunte’s mind-set is that he could escape from that. Considering that throwing the ball away would have resulted in an automatic 3rd and 26, that is not a tremendously appealing option. Nonetheless, it would have saved 6 yards on the ensuing field goal attempt. This play is a four man rush with 5 OL blocking. Ronnie Brown goes out on a delay, but doesn’t turn to look for a pass before the rusher has Culpepper in his grasp. This is bad blocking, but he had a chance to throw it away while the DE had him by the ankles. This play results in 3rd and 32. Culpepper completes a 19 yarder to McMichael, but it is not enough and the drive ends with a missed 55 yard field goal.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
4
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
3
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0
Other
1
Bills 4Q, 15:00
First and 15, following a false start penalty, at the beginning of the 4th quarter and down by 16. Daunte has some time in the pocket. Not a lot of time, but some. Unfortunately, to get that little bit of time, it took 5 OLs plus the RB and the TE to stay in blocking against a 4-man rush. That means we had 3 receivers being covered by 7 defenders. I’m very hesitant to assume that a receiver was open under those circumstances. Nonetheless, to err on the side of blaming Culpepper, I’ll split this one between “Poor Blocking But Could Throw it Away” and mobility – the pre-injury Daunte might have been able to get away from that. This play is followed by a 13 yard completion on 2nd and 19, but the sack below occurs on 3rd down and the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
4
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
3.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0.5
Other
1
Bills 4Q, 14:06
Third and 6, down by 16. This is a tough one. The play starts at 14:08, and at 14:06 one of the pass rushers is diving at his ankles. We are in max protect here again – 5 OLs plus Brown and McMichael – against a 5-man rush. Despite the max protect, the blocking wasn’t good and I don’t think Daunte can really be faulted to trying to get away from the rusher. I’m also unwilling to assume that one of the 3 receivers was open when being covered by 6 defenders. I don’t know if mobility was really an issue here – I think he probably did about as much as he could have done (even pre-injury) to minimize the loss.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
4
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
4.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0.5
Other
1
Titans 1Q, 11:55
First and 10 early in the game. The LDE blows past Carey. There was nothing Culpepper could have done to avoid that sack. After a 10 yard completion on 2nd and 19 and an incomplete pass on 3rd and 9, the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
4.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
0.5
Other
1
Titans 2Q, 2:48
Second and 9. Haynesworth blows around the left side of the Dolphins OL. The pre-injury Daunte might have been able to get away from that one, but I’m not so sure. Haynesworth has good quickness and a pretty good head start on Daunte. I’ll split it between inadequate blocking and mobility, but it definitely has nothing to do with holding onto the ball too long. A five yard completion on 3rd and 17 isn’t enough and the drive ends with a missed 30-yard field goal by Mare.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
5.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
4.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
1
Other
1
Titans 3Q, 4:12
Third and 5 play. This is another tough one. The difficulty is that Hadnot gets dominated and pushed back all the way into the pocket and the other inside rusher also comes free up the middle. It’s tough to step up and throw it in that kind of situation, and there is no where to run around the end. We had 6 men in blocking on this one, but I can’t tell from this angle whether they were rushing 4 or 5. Either way, I think this is an inadequate blocking sack. The drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
5.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
5.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
1
Other
1
Titans 4Q, 10:06
First and 10. The left DE blows around the corner and almost gets there before Daunte does. Culpepper steps up and tries to escape to the right, but the DT is right there. I don’t think the pre-injury Daunte or many other QBs would have escaped that one. After 2 completions for 15 yards, the drive ends with a punt on 4th and 4.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
6.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
5.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
1
Other
1
Titans 4Q, 5:05
Second and 10 play. Here, the play is clearly a hitch and go, with a planned pump fake to Chambers at the top of the screen. Chambers turns for a moment, but with no expectation of getting the short pass. The linebacker at the top of the screen sets up in coverage right in front of Chambers and the corner does come up and bite on the pump fake. Throwing it to Chambers at that point likely would have been a disaster – probably a TD going back the other way. Bullock is unblocked and has a free shot at Daunte from what has become his blind side. I find it very hard to criticize Daunte for holding onto the ball too long here. The drive ends with a 39 yard field goal.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
7.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
5.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
1
Other
1
Texans 1Q, 14:52
First and 10, first offensive play of the game. The blitzing DB comes in completely unblocked. Culpepper might have had a split second to dump it off, but the lion’s share of the blame here is clearly on the blocking/blitz pickup. The drive ends on a punt after an 11 yard completion on 3rd and 20.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
8.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
5.5
Holds Ball Too Long
0
Mobility
1
Other
1
Texans 2Q, 14:27
First and 10. This one Daunte gets a reasonable amount of time, although it took 7 blockers to do it. That leaves 3 receivers to choose from. I don’t know if there were any open receivers. To err on the side of blaming Daunte, I’ll assume someone was open and conclude that Daunte just holds the ball too long. With that assumption, which may or may not be true, this is the clearest example yet of Daunte holding onto the ball too long. Even so, it is not that egregious an example. This play was followed up by 2 consecutive penalties on McIntosh for 15 yards (one of which wiped out a 17 yard gain), resulting in a 2nd and 30. After two completions for 18 yards, the drive ends on a 52 yard field goal by Mare.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
8.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
5.5
Holds Ball Too Long
1
Mobility
1
Other
1
Texans 2Q, 2:46
First and 10 at the Houston 37. The blitzer and the left DE come around the corner almost completely unimpeded. Daunte steps up to avoid the outside pressure and the DT is right there. This one was due to inadequate blocking. The drive ends on a punt from the Houston 42.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
9.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
5.5
Holds Ball Too Long
1
Mobility
1
Other
1
Texans 4Q, 14:54
First and 10. The blitzing LB comes in untouched. When Daunte sidesteps him, Mario Williams just happens to be right there and falls into his first NFL sack. Clearly an inadequate blocking sack.. After another sack on the following play (see below), the drive ends with a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
10.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
5.5
Holds Ball Too Long
1
Mobility
1
Other
1
Texans 4Q, 14:20
Second and 13. This one is a tough call. Daunte has some time on this one, but not a ton of time. The play starts at 14:20 and the first of several rushers to get to Daunte has him by the legs with the clock at 14:17. That is Hadnot’s man, who has completely driven Rex backwards 8 yards right into Daunte. That makes it tough to step up and throw. We have 6 men blocking the 5-man rush, leaving 4 receivers to choose from. Are any of them open? One can’t tell from this clip, but let’s again assume that there was at least someone in whose direction Daunte could have thrown the ball away without incurring an intentional grounding penalty. This could probably go either way, so I’ll split the blame on this one. The drive ends on a punt.
Sack Fault Tally Clearly Inadequate Blocking
10.5
Bad Blocking But Could Throw it Away
6
Holds Ball Too Long
1.5
Mobility
1
Other
1
That’s the final tally. Another play was ruled a sack after the fact, but I’m not sure what play that was and don’t have a clip for it. More than 10 of the sacks were complete blocking breakdowns. Six of them came on plays where a blitzer came in untouched or with little more than the “matador” treatment. On a few of those, Daunte managed to avoid the initial blitzer but was then quickly wrapped up by another rusher who had come free from a block. Two of the sacks came on plays in which Hadnot got embarrassingly dominated and was completely driven back into the pocket.
My tally has 6 sacks that were caused by poor blocking, but where Daunte at least had a chance to throw the ball away. Most of them came in max protect situations against a 4 or 5 man rush, thus permitting the defense to double cover all of the receivers. By my count, only 1.5 of the 20 sacks were due to Daunte holding the ball too long.
Sacks in which the QB has some reasonable time to throw used to be called “coverage sacks.” I’m pretty sure they still are in 31 NFL cities. Although never a desired result, there had never been any particular shame in a QB taking a coverage sack. That is because the alternative, in many situations, is an interception. Throwing the interception is definitely not a good decision and almost surely would have resulted in even more nonsensical noise about Daunte not being a good decision-maker.
Many looked at the reduction in sacks when Harrington came in as proof that the sacks were Culpepper’s fault. As indicated above, very few of them were. While Harrington has always gotten rid of the ball quickly and he has generally done so in the games he has started, the pass protection has been much, much better over the last few weeks. When Harrington has seen pressure comparable to what Daunte faced, he has been sacked too.
[In the VIP version, this portion compares video clips of Daunte sacks and Harrington sacks that indicate, at least in my opinion, that when Harrington faced similar pressure, he too was sacked. Some of the video clips are remarkably similar. This is followed by clips showing Harrington had plenty of time on most of his positive plays, in contrast to the conditions Daunte faced in the first few games.]
As the video clips show, when Harrington faced the kind of pressure Daunte faced, he too was sacked. When he was successful throwing the ball downfield, he had plenty of time to throw. The numbers bear this out.
According to the passing splits at si.com, in 4 games, Daunte was sacked 21 times and got off 31 passes under pressure in the first 4 games. That’s 52 pass attempts in which he was under pressure out of 155 total pass attempts (134 attempts plus 21 sacks). Daunte was under pressure in one out of every 3 times he dropped back to pass.
Through 8 games, Harrington was sacked 5 times and pressured 33 times in 183 dropbacks, a rate of one for every 4.8 dropbacks. For the sake of reference, the following QBs were sacked or threw a pass under pressure at the following rates through Week 9:
Tom Brady (279/55 = one per 5.1 attempts)
Peyton Manning (291/54 = 5.4)
Drew Brees (292/52 = 5.6)
Carson Palmer (281/76 = 3.7)
Donovan McNabb (297/65 = 4.6)
Marc Bulger (314/63 = 5)
Jake Delhomme (298/71 = 4.2)
The pressure rate that Joey has seen through his first 4 starts has been pretty consistent with what the top QBs have faced. In other words, a QB can be successful in that environment. None of the top QBs have faced anywhere near the pressure that Daunte faced. If you have any doubt about how pressure affects a QBs performance, take a look at how some of the top QBs have performed when under pressure through Week 9.
Tom Brady – 9/43, 75 yards, 1 TDs, 3 INTs, 12 sacks, 18.3 QB Rating
Peyton Manning – 23/44, 325 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 10 sacks, 99.2 QB Rating
Drew Brees – 22/44, 239 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 8 sacks, 70.2 QB Rating
Palmer – 17/53, 220 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 23 sacks, 43.0 QB Rating
McNabb – 19/45, 213 yards, 2 TD, ) INT, 20 sacks, 71.8 QB Rating
Bulger – 18/39, 274 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 24 sacks, 78.4 QB Rating
Delhomme – 17/53, 136 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 18 sacks, 9.9 QB Rating
[BTW, the performance of Mr. Cool, Tom Brady, under pressure, is pretty remarkable. Nine completions in 43 attempts for 75 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs? Note: Brady finished the year having completed only 17 of 74 for 147 yards, 1 TD and 5 INTs, for a QB rating of 15.9.]
When he was able to get the ball off under pressure, Daunte completed 14 of 31, for 220 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. While not eye-popping numbers, they are generally consistent with how the other top QBs fared under such circumstances – better than some, not quite as good as some others. Through Week 9, Harrington has completed 14 of 33, for 200 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT when under pressure.
Mobility
As I suspected, lack of mobility had very little to do with the sacks Daunte took. While there were 2-3 in which one could speculate about whether Daunte would have avoided them before the injury, none were clear cut in my opinion. Similarly, very few, if any, of these sacks would have been escaped from by an NFL QB with average mobility. Maybe Michael Vick or Vince Young might have gotten away from a few of them, but that’s about it.
As shown on the video clips above, Daunte did move in the pocket and was able to avoid several free pass rushers only to get wrapped up by another one. On several other plays, however, Daunte was able to use his mobility to evade pressure and make some positive plays.
I keep hearing people say that Daunte was a statute out there, with no ability to make anything happen with his feet. I hear others say that they didn’t see anything from Daunte that would lead them to believe he has a decent chance of regaining his pre-injury mobility (notwithstanding the fact that he came back several months before he was expected to). I just don’t see it that way, or anything close to that. On the contrary, there were numerous plays in which Daunte did use his feet to turn a negative play into a positive one. Several of these are shown and discussed below. Considering that he was out there 10 months after the injury (McGahee didn’t play for 21 months after the injury), I think there is every reason to think that he will regain much, if not all, of his pre-injury mobility.
Texans 4Q, 2:12
Daunte avoids the sack, gets out of the pocket, gives McMichael time to get open and completes the pass for 22 yards.
Texans 1Q, 10:49
Culpepper escapes from 2 pass rushers, gets out of the pocket, and completes the pass to brown for a 9 yard gain.
Bills 3Q, 9:17
Daunte escapes from pressure and rushes for a gain of 7.
Steelers 3Q, 8:30
Daunte escapes from pressure and hits Booker for a 50 yard gain.
Steelers 4Q, 8:28
Daunte tucks it and runs for a 5-yard gain.
Titans 3Q, 9:00
Daunte runs it in from 6 yards out.
The plays above easily could have been a sack with a less mobile and/or physically weaker QB. If Daunte was to blame for holding the ball too long on 1 or 2 of the sacks, he should get credit for escaping from pressure and making something happen on the 6 plays above.
Impact of 3rd and Very Long
Now that I think it’s clear that the vast majority of the sacks that Daunte took were not his fault, we can focus on the impact those sacks had on the offense. The biggest impact was in leaving the Fins in 3rd and very long situations, i.e., 3rd and 11 or more. Third and 11+ is the number that they track for statistical purposes, but that really understates the problem that Daunte faced. The average yardage needed in these situations in weeks 1-4 was 18.7 yards and the shortest distance needed was 13 yards (once).
Third and nearly 19 is very, very difficult to convert on a consistent basis, especially when the protection isn’t good enough to provide enough time to effectively throw the ball downfield. Sure enough, Daunte was only able to convert 1 out of 13 3rd and 13+ situations. That resulted in 12 failed drives in 4 games, which is roughly 25% of the Dolphins’ offensive possessions during that time period.
When faced with 3rd down situations and less than 11 yards to go, Daunte was quite effective. He converted 14 of 30 such attempts, which comes out to 46.6%. That would rank 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down conversions behind only the Colts. It would have been 2nd last year too, behind only the Colts at 48.7%. Daunte’s QB rating on 3rd and less than 11 this year is also quite respectable – 98.9.
If, as I believe, the OL has settled in (after some personnel shuffling) and improved its pass protection, we should have a lot fewer 3rd and very longs. Indeed, in 5 games, Harrington has faced only 6 3rd and 11+ situations (and converted none of them). With Daunte at QB, having a lot fewer 3rd and longs would dramatically improve the overall 3rd down conversion rate and, consequently, the success of the offense.
Decision-Making
There has been a lot of criticism of Daunte’s decision-making too. It isn’t entirely clear to me what this is referring to. From some people, it seemed to refer to his “decisions” to take sacks instead of getting rid of the ball. As discussed above, I don’t think that is a fair criticism. Not even close. Even with regard to those few situations where he arguably held the ball longer than he needed to (and those were close calls), the “decision” to take a sack is not always a bad one. The alternatives – interceptions and intentional grounding penalties – can be much worse.
Maybe someone with aerial view game films could make that call on those few sacks, but one simply cannot make that criticism in a meaningful way based on the film we get from the TV feed. I am 99.9% sure that Jimmy Johnson was out on his boat sipping margaritas, and not in an office breaking down coach’s tape, when he made his comments about Daunte’s poor decision-making.
The other type of poor decision-making that comes to mind is interceptions. The fact that the defender ended up catching the ball means there was a defender too close to the receiver and that often means that throwing the pass was a bad decision.
Of course, there are exceptions. Harrington has had a few interceptions where there was no problem with the decision, but the ball got tipped and intercepted anyhow. Every QB throws interceptions and every QB makes a bad decision on a pass from time to time. At least two of Daunte’s 3 interceptions were poor decisions and I’m still undecided (after numerous reviews) about Polamalu’s pick. When I can’t decide with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and numerous video reviews, I’m pretty hesitant to place too much blame on the QB who had a split second to make the decision with numerous 300+ lb. men bearing down on him.
Steelers 4Q, 5:52
Chambers does appear to come open for a second, but there are also 3 defenders in a semi-circle around him. The pass rush is coming pretty hard from the left side of the DL. Maybe, if thrown a fraction of a second earlier, he could have squeezed it in there. I don’t know.
But for the sake of argument here, let’s say that all 3 of the interceptions were bad decisions. Although I understand that we were down by 11 deep in our own territory with less than 3 minutes left for the second of the Steeler interceptions, I’m not giving Daunte a free pass on that basis. The interception against Buffalo was clearly a very bad decision.
In 165 dropbacks (134 pass attempts, 21 sacks and 10 rushes), Daunte threw 3 interceptions. That’s one for every 55 dropbacks. That is not an excessive number of bad decisions by any means. If you don’t include the Polamalu pick, it is one bad decision in every 82.5 dropbacks, which is very good. As a point of reference, Marino had 8,929 dropbacks in his career (8,358 attempts, 270 sacks and 301 rushes) and threw 252 interceptions – one every 35.4 dropbacks. I have no recollection of Marino suffering from a disproportionate number of tipped interceptions or from interceptions where the decision to throw was good, but the pass was thrown so inaccurately that it ended up going to a defender.Was Marino a bad decision-maker?
And while Dan did have that great, quick release that helped avoid sacks, he never faced the kind of pressure that Daunte had this year. For much of Marino’s career he had a HOF center (Stephenson) and/or a perennial All Pro left tackle (Webb). I think we can all agree that Daunte has not had that this year. The point is that Marino’s 1 interception for every 35.4 dropbacks was generally under a lot less pressure than Daunte faced in his first 4 games.
Harrington has 7 picks in 153 dropbacks (146 pass attempts, 5 sacks and 2 rushes). Excluding those that were tipped, he has 3 bad decision interceptions in those 153 dropbacks – roughly the same rate as Daunte, if you include the Polamalu interception. Notably, however, I have not heard a single person criticizing Joey for his decision-making (and rightfully so).
The “bad decision maker” criticism seems to be a sub-species of the “lacks intelligence” or “can’t read defenses” criticisms addressed in the original Culpepper Manifesto. You simply can’t put up the numbers Daunte has over his career if you are not intelligent or can’t read defenses. You similarly cannot put up those numbers if you are a bad decision-maker.
While I hate to say it, I suspect it is a race thing. People will get angry about my bringing race into this, but name one white QB with a career QB rating over 90 who gets criticized for not being able to read defenses or for making too many bad decisions. OK, that’s a bit of a trick question, since there are only 3 other QBs with career QB ratings over 90. So make it a rating of 80. Is there a single white QB with a career rating over 80 who gets criticized for not being able to read defenses or for making too many poor decisions? None? Fine, go down to 75. Still none.
Be Patient
Although not what I had hoped for, Culpepper’s performance in his first 4 games was not that far off from what I expected. There is nothing uncommon about a QB on a new team struggling in his first few games with a new OL, new receivers and a new offensive coordinator. While there have been QBs that have switched teams without tremendous growing pains, that does not mean that some struggles in the first few games means that there won’t be improvement after that. Trent Green had a QB rating of 71.1 in his first year in Kansas City, but had a rating of 92.6 in his second year there. Mark Brunell’s rating his first year in Washington was 63.9, but went up to 85.9 the following year. Matt Hasselbeck had a 70.9 rating his first year in Seattle, but an 87.8 the following year.
When you look at Daunte’s numbers in the first 4 games, the only real deficiency was TDs. His completion percentage, yards per attempt and interception rate were all respectable. Not great, but respectable. Even the TD figure is a bit misleading. One was taken away on the pass to Chambers at the goal line against the Titans. Daunte ended up running it in, but that doesn’t show up in the passing stats. He also had a TD dropped by Chambers in the Steelers game:
Steelers 2Q, 00:40
The ball is properly placed in light of the location of the defender and hits Chambers in the hands and the facemask.
Daunte easily could have had 4 TDs in those first 4 games. No, that’s not great, but had Chambers caught that pass and the officials ruled the Chambers catch in the Titans game a TD, Daunte’s QB rating over those first 4 games would have been 87.2. While that’s not up to his previous standards, it is pretty respectable. It also illustrates how small a sample size 4 games is. Two plays can change a QB’s rating by 10 points. And let’s face it, this offense (excluding the QB position) is hardly a well-oiled machine. Harrington has not played badly and we still have struggled mightily to put up points.
Brees
This brings us back to the Brees comparison. Brees is a very good QB and has played well in New Orleans. That, however, does not mean he would have played well here. Moreover, his performance there has not been quite as good as it may look on paper. Let’s focus on his first 4 games, so it provides a fair comparison to Daunte’s.
In the first 4 games, Brees completed 90 of 137 for 1063, 4 TDs and 2 INTs, for a QB rating of 92.8. He also lost 2 fumbles, which don’t show up in his passer rating. If you treat those 2 fumbles as interceptions (they have the same effect), his passer rating comes down to 85.5, which is lower than Culpepper’s rating if he’s credited with the two extra TDs. One of Brees’ 4 TDs was a “garbage time” 86 yarder to Marques Colston with 1:15 left in the game when they were down by 11. If you take that TD out of the equation, his QB rating comes down to 80.5.
But isn’t this just facile statistical manipulation? Yes. I’m not suggesting that we should pretend that certain things that didn’t happen happened or that other things that did happen didn’t. It does illustrate, however, how a 4 game sample is too small and too easily influenced by one or two plays to enable one to draw meaningful conclusions about how one might perform over a longer haul. That is true even if they played under identical conditions, which they have not. As discussed above, Brees has faced pressure only half as frequently as Daunte has this year. He also has a pretty nice stable of RBs (Bush and McAllister) and some pretty good receivers.
Even if you are convinced that Brees truly played better than Culpepper and would have under the same conditions Culpepper faced, that he had more success sooner does not mean that Brees was the better choice in the long run.That kind of thinking would have led one to think that Charlie Batch was going to be a vastly superior QB to Peyton Manning after their rookie year in 1998. Batch’s QB rating was 83.5, compared to Manning’s 71.2. That kind of thinking might have made one comparing the numbers of the Cowboys’ two rookie QBs in 1989 to keep Steve Walsh and trade away Troy Aikman.
Similarly, one with that mindset would have concluded that Ken O’Brien would be a much better QB than John Elway after their first year or two in the NFL. He who has success first does not necessarily have it most or longest.
What To Do Now
After leading two scoring drives in the last 10 minutes of the Texans game, it was announced in the middle of the following week that Daunte was experiencing problems with his shoulder. Harrington would get the next start and the two after that. A lot of contradictory and illogical statements came out of Saban’s mouth regarding Daunte’s status. I don’t believe much of what was said, but my purpose here is not to try to decode or decipher what was really going on. I have no inside knowledge of what was really going on behind closed doors. I just don’t know. [Note: With the events surrounding Saban's departure, I think most people would agree that what he says or said is hardly the gospel]. What I do know is that we have continued to lose games, with little offensive firepower.
While his statistics are awful, I don’t think Harrington has looked that bad. It is clear that, even with the recent OL improvement, this offense still just isn’t right. The question now is what to do about Daunte for the remainder of the year. The season is all but completely lost from a playoffs perspective. This team needs to see what it can do to improve and to get a picture of what it needs to do in the offseason. For those reasons, Daunte needs to play.
The team has consistently said, from the beginning of camp, that Daunte was not at increased risk of re-injuring the knee. Assuming that to be true (I am not an orthopedic specialist), there is no reason not to put Daunte back in and get him more comfortable with this offense and his receivers. As discussed (with video illustration) at length above, Daunte was not taking additional punishment because of any perceived lack of mobility, nor was any perceived lack of mobility hurting the team as a result of his taking an unnecessary number of sacks.While there was about a 48 hour period when Saban said Daunte’s benching was due to his shoulder, he subsequently said it is about the knee, not the shoulder.
For the last several weeks there has been absolutely no mention of any shoulder problems. If the concern is that Daunte may be bumped around or bruised, he will certainly have ample time to heal from that before next season begins. If the concern is that he may suffer a more significant injury in a freak accident, etc. then better to know that going into the offseason. Injuries are a part of the game. If a 340 lb DT rolls over his knee (even his previously uninjured left knee), he’ll be injured and out for a long time. The same is true of Joey or any other QB. You can’t not play your franchise QB for fear that a freak injury might occur.
It looks fairly likely that the Fins will be picking pretty high in the draft. Questions may arise as to whether to take a QB high in the draft (Brady Quinn?) or spend money on a QB in free agency.
To best answer those questions, we need to see as much of Daunte as possible this year. I think we’ll see improvement over time, that his mobility is fine, and that he is, indeed, our QB of the future. If that is the case, then let’s find out as soon as possible and use our draft and free agency capital on one of our numerous other positions of need.
If he doesn’t show improvement this year, that will not mean that he can’t or won’t be our QB of the future, but it will leave that question open (in some people’s minds) during the offseason. But at least we’ll have a better picture of Daunte’s future with this team than we do now, and the team will be able to plan accordingly.
[That's it. As mentioned at the top, this was written several months ago. Obviously, Daunte did not play in the closing weeks of the season and we still have questions about the QB position. Nonetheless, the suggestion that we should give up on him after 4 weeks whent he OL was horrible, he was not fully recovered from the knee injury, the play-calling and offense as a whole was miserable (all season long), etc. is ridiculous, especially if you actually look at the video clips.]
