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The Dolphins Offseason Primer, Part 8
By Phil Unwin
Please note, the timing of this article is purely coincidental. I am in no way, shape or form trying to get you to head over to The Lounge and vote for me in Finheaven’s March Madness. Nope. Not me. Just ignore that hyperlinked text.
Okay, last up in our offseason primer is the special teams. As you’re probably aware, the commentary feature on this site is down, so for the time being, most of the material is lost somewhere in a server in Muck’s basement. However, if you want me to send you copies of the first seven parts of the Offseason Primer, just shoot me a PM and I’ll be happy to oblige.
The Current Situation:
At kicker, there is drama in the air. After a disappointing season by Olindo Mare, the Dolphins first signed Matt Prater, and then, and far more importantly, Jay Feely. Feely connected on 85.2% of his field goals in 2006 (13th in the NFL), compared to a paltry 72.2% for Mare (32nd).
To be fair, Mare missed 5 field goals from 50 yards or more, and if those were discounted, his accuracy rate goes up to 83.3%. Feely was 0/1 beyond 50, and if that is discounted, his accuracy rate goes up to 88.4%. But then, should we discount that? For one thing, for kickers, as much as any other position, confidence is absolutely crucial. Chances are, Mare’s not just brushing off that 51 yarder he missed against the Jets that would have forced overtime. And if he is, that’s indicative of another problem. Moreover, Feely connected on his kicks playing half his games in Giants Stadium, which is one of the toughest places in the NFL to kick. Mare was a miserable 12 for 18 at Dolphin Stadium, which is quite a bit more friendly. Moreover, Mare’s accuracy is trending downward; he’s been below an 80% accuracy rate four out of the last five years, and if one throws out the 2005 season, he would have declined in accuracy three straight years. Feely, meanwhile, has seen his accuracy increase for three years running, despite going from the Georgia Dome to Giants Stadium.
So, by any reasonable measure, Feely is a more accurate kicker. Mare’s strength comes in kickoffs; he remains one of the best in the NFL at pinning an opposing offense back deep in their own territory. Feely isn’t anything special in that department. The question is: does that outweigh Feely’s decided edge in accuracy? The Dolphins apparently thought it didn’t, and they’re probably right. A 13% increase (or more) in field goal accuracy would likely outweigh the extra couple yards in field position the defense would receive in most scenarios.
As the Dolphins have signed Feely, and are actively looking to trade Mare, the decision appears to be made there. Prater, presumably, is little more than training camp fodder. Mare continues to participate in minicamp, and if something was to happen to Feely, at least there would be insurance on hand.
At punter, Donnie Jones is a restricted free agent and figures to be back, since most teams will tend not to surrender a draft pick for a punter. Jones had an up-and-down 2006. He was down in that his net average was 36.2 yards, good for 25th in the NFL. However, 32.9% of his kicks landed inside the 20, good for 12th. And who could forget the game against the Patriots where he placed three kicks inside the five? I sure couldn’t. I know this because I was screaming at Nick Saban not to punt from inside the 40, and Jones made me look foolish each time.
Jones is also the holder on field goals and PATs, and by all accounts, a competent one. The other half of that equation, long snapper John Denney, was resigned today.
One of the more overlooked aspects to the offseason has been the raiding of Miami’s special teams. Wes Welker, of course, is gone, but so are Sammy Morris and Travis Minor. David Bowens seems to have a foot out the door and the team has shown little interest to date in bringing back Keith Adams. Donnie Spragan is almost certainly gone, with the signing of Joey Porter. Welker was a competent punt returner, but not as good on kickoffs. He will have to be replaced in both those capacities now. Travis Minor participated as a backup kick returner and was a very good coverage guy as well. So was Morris. Although all those guys are replaceable, it should be noted that most of them had been around for a few years, so their departures will create a continuity issue. It’s not a crisis, but it will need attention.
Of the Dolphins’ signings thus far, three have been potentially aimed at special teams. Most prominent was the addition of Chicago special teams ace Cameron Worrell. Worrell, nominally a safety, was a tremendous kick coverage guy for the Bears. Worrell could replace the role that Scott McGarrahan once filled: undersized safety who makes big special teams tackles and gets the defense pumped up. Also signed so far were WR Kelly Campbell and Az-Zahir Hakim. Unless someone is added in the draft, those two might end up competing for the right to be a return specialist/5th wide receiver.
The Alternatives:
Not an issue at kicker, obviously. The alternative is already signed and in camp.
If Jones isn’t brought back, it would probably be because the Dolphins signed Todd Sauerbrun. Sauerbrun was mentioned earlier in the process as a possible replacement and is the only punter on the market worth letting Jones walk to sign.
On special teams, one name stands out above all others: Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn has the game-breaking speed and quickness to make an immediate impact on special teams while the Dolphins break him in at wide receiver. Ginn has not run this offseason, and may not. At this point, he’s nearly certain to be available at #9, and might actually be a possibility for a trade down if he chooses not to run because his foot is bothering him from the BCS National Championship Game. Of course, any pick of Ginn would necessarily have to be accompanied by a thorough physical to make sure there was no long term damage from that idiot teammate jumping on him. Nevertheless, Ginn is an option, and could dramatically help the Dolphins’ long-mediocre kick and punt return teams.
Texas CB Aaron Ross is a potential second-round pick who could step in as a return man as well, though probably not with Ginn’s impact. Ditto Cal’s Daymeion Hughes. Florida State’s Lorenzo Booker might be worth a late first-day pick as a third-down back and returner. There was recently speculation that the Dolphins might be looking at Ginn’s teammate, Anthony Gonzalez, in round 2, and he has contributed quite a bit on special teams as well.
One late round prospect for whom I have a soft heart is Michigan’s Steve Breaston. As a follower of Michigan football, I found Breaston's career to be a tad disappointing; he never did as much as a receiver as he should have, given his talents. Still, Breaston is the sort of multi-faceted player who could offer great rewards with a 5th or 6th round pick. He lacks the size and the concentration to be a star receiver in the NFL, but he could be a valuable 3rd or 4th receiver, and is a fine return man.
As for the coverage roles, there will likely be camp competition for the final few roster spots, and that is where players will make or break their NFL futures. Here, the team will be looking at backup defensive backs, running backs, wide receivers either on the active roster, picked in the draft or signed as bargain free agents. Because these roles are often filled in as afterthoughts, it’s impossible to speculate who might be targeted either in free agency or the draft. Anyone who can run fast, has a high threshold for pain and isn’t one of the 20 most valuable contributors on the team will probably get due consideration.
The Final Assessment:
The Dolphins continue to shop Mare, and unless Jay Feely has a horrible Chris Hanson-like accident, Feely will be the team’s placekicker in 2007. If the Dolphins can get value in trade for Mare, Randy Mueller should be commended, since pretty much everyone knows he’ll be cut if they can’t find a taker. Mare, understandably, has been agitating for his release so he can find a team before all 32 placekicking jobs are taken. The prediction here is that Mare will end up being cut outright before the draft. Look for Jones to come back for another year, at least.
Ginn remains a definite possibility either at #9 or for a trade down, and would immediately add spice to the return game. Breaston would be a fine late round option, too. The exodus from the coverage units is a potential concern, and it will probably need to be a point of emphasis in training camp more so than usual, but good kick coverage guys are readily available, and as long as some bargain signings, late round draft picks and undrafted free agents are picked up with an eye toward that, the coverage units should be fine.
By Phil Unwin
Please note, the timing of this article is purely coincidental. I am in no way, shape or form trying to get you to head over to The Lounge and vote for me in Finheaven’s March Madness. Nope. Not me. Just ignore that hyperlinked text.
Okay, last up in our offseason primer is the special teams. As you’re probably aware, the commentary feature on this site is down, so for the time being, most of the material is lost somewhere in a server in Muck’s basement. However, if you want me to send you copies of the first seven parts of the Offseason Primer, just shoot me a PM and I’ll be happy to oblige.
The Current Situation:
At kicker, there is drama in the air. After a disappointing season by Olindo Mare, the Dolphins first signed Matt Prater, and then, and far more importantly, Jay Feely. Feely connected on 85.2% of his field goals in 2006 (13th in the NFL), compared to a paltry 72.2% for Mare (32nd).
To be fair, Mare missed 5 field goals from 50 yards or more, and if those were discounted, his accuracy rate goes up to 83.3%. Feely was 0/1 beyond 50, and if that is discounted, his accuracy rate goes up to 88.4%. But then, should we discount that? For one thing, for kickers, as much as any other position, confidence is absolutely crucial. Chances are, Mare’s not just brushing off that 51 yarder he missed against the Jets that would have forced overtime. And if he is, that’s indicative of another problem. Moreover, Feely connected on his kicks playing half his games in Giants Stadium, which is one of the toughest places in the NFL to kick. Mare was a miserable 12 for 18 at Dolphin Stadium, which is quite a bit more friendly. Moreover, Mare’s accuracy is trending downward; he’s been below an 80% accuracy rate four out of the last five years, and if one throws out the 2005 season, he would have declined in accuracy three straight years. Feely, meanwhile, has seen his accuracy increase for three years running, despite going from the Georgia Dome to Giants Stadium.
So, by any reasonable measure, Feely is a more accurate kicker. Mare’s strength comes in kickoffs; he remains one of the best in the NFL at pinning an opposing offense back deep in their own territory. Feely isn’t anything special in that department. The question is: does that outweigh Feely’s decided edge in accuracy? The Dolphins apparently thought it didn’t, and they’re probably right. A 13% increase (or more) in field goal accuracy would likely outweigh the extra couple yards in field position the defense would receive in most scenarios.
As the Dolphins have signed Feely, and are actively looking to trade Mare, the decision appears to be made there. Prater, presumably, is little more than training camp fodder. Mare continues to participate in minicamp, and if something was to happen to Feely, at least there would be insurance on hand.
At punter, Donnie Jones is a restricted free agent and figures to be back, since most teams will tend not to surrender a draft pick for a punter. Jones had an up-and-down 2006. He was down in that his net average was 36.2 yards, good for 25th in the NFL. However, 32.9% of his kicks landed inside the 20, good for 12th. And who could forget the game against the Patriots where he placed three kicks inside the five? I sure couldn’t. I know this because I was screaming at Nick Saban not to punt from inside the 40, and Jones made me look foolish each time.
Jones is also the holder on field goals and PATs, and by all accounts, a competent one. The other half of that equation, long snapper John Denney, was resigned today.
One of the more overlooked aspects to the offseason has been the raiding of Miami’s special teams. Wes Welker, of course, is gone, but so are Sammy Morris and Travis Minor. David Bowens seems to have a foot out the door and the team has shown little interest to date in bringing back Keith Adams. Donnie Spragan is almost certainly gone, with the signing of Joey Porter. Welker was a competent punt returner, but not as good on kickoffs. He will have to be replaced in both those capacities now. Travis Minor participated as a backup kick returner and was a very good coverage guy as well. So was Morris. Although all those guys are replaceable, it should be noted that most of them had been around for a few years, so their departures will create a continuity issue. It’s not a crisis, but it will need attention.
Of the Dolphins’ signings thus far, three have been potentially aimed at special teams. Most prominent was the addition of Chicago special teams ace Cameron Worrell. Worrell, nominally a safety, was a tremendous kick coverage guy for the Bears. Worrell could replace the role that Scott McGarrahan once filled: undersized safety who makes big special teams tackles and gets the defense pumped up. Also signed so far were WR Kelly Campbell and Az-Zahir Hakim. Unless someone is added in the draft, those two might end up competing for the right to be a return specialist/5th wide receiver.
The Alternatives:
Not an issue at kicker, obviously. The alternative is already signed and in camp.
If Jones isn’t brought back, it would probably be because the Dolphins signed Todd Sauerbrun. Sauerbrun was mentioned earlier in the process as a possible replacement and is the only punter on the market worth letting Jones walk to sign.
On special teams, one name stands out above all others: Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn has the game-breaking speed and quickness to make an immediate impact on special teams while the Dolphins break him in at wide receiver. Ginn has not run this offseason, and may not. At this point, he’s nearly certain to be available at #9, and might actually be a possibility for a trade down if he chooses not to run because his foot is bothering him from the BCS National Championship Game. Of course, any pick of Ginn would necessarily have to be accompanied by a thorough physical to make sure there was no long term damage from that idiot teammate jumping on him. Nevertheless, Ginn is an option, and could dramatically help the Dolphins’ long-mediocre kick and punt return teams.
Texas CB Aaron Ross is a potential second-round pick who could step in as a return man as well, though probably not with Ginn’s impact. Ditto Cal’s Daymeion Hughes. Florida State’s Lorenzo Booker might be worth a late first-day pick as a third-down back and returner. There was recently speculation that the Dolphins might be looking at Ginn’s teammate, Anthony Gonzalez, in round 2, and he has contributed quite a bit on special teams as well.
One late round prospect for whom I have a soft heart is Michigan’s Steve Breaston. As a follower of Michigan football, I found Breaston's career to be a tad disappointing; he never did as much as a receiver as he should have, given his talents. Still, Breaston is the sort of multi-faceted player who could offer great rewards with a 5th or 6th round pick. He lacks the size and the concentration to be a star receiver in the NFL, but he could be a valuable 3rd or 4th receiver, and is a fine return man.
As for the coverage roles, there will likely be camp competition for the final few roster spots, and that is where players will make or break their NFL futures. Here, the team will be looking at backup defensive backs, running backs, wide receivers either on the active roster, picked in the draft or signed as bargain free agents. Because these roles are often filled in as afterthoughts, it’s impossible to speculate who might be targeted either in free agency or the draft. Anyone who can run fast, has a high threshold for pain and isn’t one of the 20 most valuable contributors on the team will probably get due consideration.
The Final Assessment:
The Dolphins continue to shop Mare, and unless Jay Feely has a horrible Chris Hanson-like accident, Feely will be the team’s placekicker in 2007. If the Dolphins can get value in trade for Mare, Randy Mueller should be commended, since pretty much everyone knows he’ll be cut if they can’t find a taker. Mare, understandably, has been agitating for his release so he can find a team before all 32 placekicking jobs are taken. The prediction here is that Mare will end up being cut outright before the draft. Look for Jones to come back for another year, at least.
Ginn remains a definite possibility either at #9 or for a trade down, and would immediately add spice to the return game. Breaston would be a fine late round option, too. The exodus from the coverage units is a potential concern, and it will probably need to be a point of emphasis in training camp more so than usual, but good kick coverage guys are readily available, and as long as some bargain signings, late round draft picks and undrafted free agents are picked up with an eye toward that, the coverage units should be fine.
