The First quarterbacks off the board. Are they the best?

[The New Guy]

Here is a list of the quarterbacks taken #1 overall and the rest from the same draft class. The list starts at 1998.

1998

Peyton Manning #1

Ryan Leaf #2

Charlie Batch #60 Round 2

Jonathan Quinn #86 Round 3

Brian Griese #91 Round 3

Matt Hasselbeck #187 round 7

Obviously, Manning was the best QB in the draft. It could be argued that the next best QB taken was in the 7th round. Out of the 5 QBS taken, the most successful QBS in my order were 1st, 5th, and 3rd taken off the board.

1999

Tim Couch #1

Donovan McNabb #2

Akili Smith #3

Daunte Culpepper #11

Cade McNown #12

Shaun King #50 Round 2

Brock Huard #77 Round 3

Joe Germaine #101 Round 4

Aaron Brooks #131 Round 4

Kevin Daft #151 Round 5

Michael Bishop #227 Round 7

Chris Greisen #239 Round 7

Scott Covington #245 Round 7

A couple of solid QBs came out of this draft, but I don't think you can all any of them franchise quarterbacks. Out of the 13 QBS taken, the most successful QBs in my order were the 2nd, 4th, and 9th QB taken.

2000

Chad Pennington #18

Giovanni Carmazzi #65 Round 3

Chris Redman #75 Round 3

Tee Martin #163 Round 5

Marc Bulger #168 Round 6

Spergon Wynn #183 Round 6

Tom Brady #199 Round 6

Todd Husak #202 Round 7

Tim Rattay #212 Round 7

Jarious Jackson #214 Round 7

Joe Hamilton #234 Round 7

A Frachise QB was found in the 6th round in this draft. Out of the 11 QBS taken, the most successful QBs in my order were the 7th, 1st, and 5th quarterbacks off the Board.

2001

Michael Vick #1

Drew Brees #32 Round 2

Quincy Carter #53 Round 2

Marques Tuiasosopo #59 Round 2

Chris Weinke #106 Round 4

Sage Rosenfels #109 Round 4

Jesse Palmer #125 Round 4

Mike McMahon #149 Round 6

A.J. Feeley #155 Round 6

Josh Booty #172 Round 6

Josh Heupel #177 Round 6

The best QB in this draft was taken in the 2nd round. Out of the 11 QBS taken, the most successful QBs in my order were the 2nd and 1st quarterbacks off the Board.

2002

David Carr #1

Joey Harrington #3

Patrick Ramsey #32

Josh McCown #81 Round 3

David Garrard #108 Round 4

Rohan Davey #117 Round 4

Randy Fasani #137 Round 5

Kurt Kittner #158 Round 5

Brandon Doman #163 Round 5

Craig Nall #164 Round 5

J.T. O'Sullivan #186 Round 6

Seth Burford #216 Round 7

Jeff Kelly #232 Round 7

Ronald Curry #235 Round 7

Wes Pate #236 Round 7

You know this was a bad draft class when Garrard is the best QB in the draft. Garrard is the only QB in this list to make the Pro Bowl and lead his team to the playoffs. Garrard was the 5th QB off the board.

2003

Carson Palmer #1

Byron Leftwich #8

Kyle Boller #19

Rex Grossman #22

Dave Ragone #88 Round 3

Chris Simms #97 Round 3

Seneca Wallace #110 Round 4

Brian St. Pierre #163 Round 5

Drew Henson #192 Round 6

Brooks Bollinger #200 Round 6

Kliff Kingsbury #201 Round 6

Gibran Hamdan #232 Round 7

Ken Dorsey #241 Round 7

Tony Romo Not Drafted

A few solid QBs came out of this draft, but again, I don't think you can say any franchise QBS.

2004

Eli Manning #1

Philip Rivers #4

Ben Roethlisberger #11

J.P. Losman #22

Matt Schaub #90 Round 3

Luke McCown #106 Round 4

Craig Krenzel #148 Round 5

Andy Hall #185 Round 6

Josh Harris #187 Round 6

Jim Sorgi #193 Round 6

Jeff Smoker #201 Round 6

John Navarre #202 Round 7

Cody Pickett #217 Round 7

Casey Bramlet #218 Round 7

Matt Mauck #225 Round 7

B.J. Symons #248 Round 7

Bradlee Van Pelt #250 Round 7

The first 3 QBs off the board were clearly the best, but I doubt any GM would take Eli #1 today (8 years later). Out of the 17 QBS taken, the best QBs in my order were the 3rd, 2nd 1st and 5th quarterbacks off the Board.

2005

Alex Smith #1

Aaron Rodgers #24

Jason Campbell #25

Charlie Frye #67 Round 3

Andrew Walter #69 Round 3

David Greene #85 Round 3

Kyle Orton #106 Round 4

Stefan LeFors #121 Round 4

Dan Orlovsky #145 Round 5

Adrian McPherson #152 Round 5

Derek Anderson #213 Round 6

Matt Cassel #230 Round 7

Ryan Fitzpatrick #250 Round 7

The big winner here is A. Rodgers who was the 2nd QB taken and at #24.

2006

Vince Young #3

Matt Leinart #10

Jay Cutler #11

Kellen Clemens #49 Round 2

Tarvaris Jackson #64 Round 2

Charlie Whitehurst #81 Round 3

Brodie Croyle #85 Round 3

Ingle Martin #148 Round 5

Omar Jacobs #164 Round 5

Bruce Gradkowski #194 Round 6

D.J. Shockley #223 Round 7

No franchise QBs here. The 3rd QB taken is probably the best out of this group.

2007

JaMarcus Russell #1

Brady Quinn #22

Kevin Kolb #36 Round 2

John Beck #40 Round 2

Drew Stanton #43 Round 2

Trent Edwards #92 Round 3

Jeff Rowe #151 Round 5

Troy Smith #174 Round 5

Jordan Palmer #205 Round 7

Tyler Thigpen #217 Round 7

Another bad draft Class. The only guy starting is Kolb drafted #36 in the 2nd round.

2008

Matt Ryan #3

Joe Flacco #18

Brian Brohm #56 Round 2

Chad Henne #57 Round 2

Kevin O'Connell #94 Round 3

John David Booty #137 Round 5

Dennis Dixon #156 Round 5

Josh Johnson #160 Round 5

Erik Ainge #162 Round 5

Colt Brennan #186 Round 6

Andre Woodson #198 Round 6

Matt Flynn #209 Round 7

Alex Brink #223 Round 7

Both Ryan and Flacco are good QBs, but I have a hard time saying that either of them are franchise guys.

2009

Matthew Stafford #1

Mark Sanchez #5

Josh Freeman #17

Pat White #44 Round 2

Stephen McGee #101 Round 4

Rhett Bomar #151 Round 5

Nate Davis #171 Round 5

Tom Brandstater #174 Round 6

Mike Teel #178 Round 6

Keith Null #196 Round 6

Curtis Painter #201 Round 6

I think it is too early to say that Stafford is a franchise guy, but it looks like he is on the way if he can stay healthy.


The only 2 QBs that were taken #1 overall to make it to the Super Bowl are the Mannings. It took Eli 3 years before he won his first playoff game, and it took 6 years before Peyton won his first playoff game.

 

[datruth55]

This just goes to show how rare a true franchise QB is and that they don't come along very often.

 

[The New Guy]

This just goes to show how rare a true franchise QB is and that they don't come along very often.

It also shows that it is more rare for them to be taken #1 overall.

 

[Vaark]

Rodgers was a little misleading: he was either 1A or 1B of the QBs depending which guru was selecting and a preemptive pick to go top 10 if not earlier. Otherwise he wouldn't have been sitting there embarrassed at RCMusicHall. He could have as easily gone #1 to SF, but certainly should have gone either #2 to us, or #5 to TB/Gruden, 2 QB hungry teams sitting with AJ Feeley and Brian Griese. No one else needed a QB as a top priority including Ted Thompson but that's what makes him such an insightful GM. All these arguments of "well how good could he be if he went 24th?" are BS cause he should have gone 1st, 2nd or 5th if not for all the brainfarting.

Damn, considering Schaub is no slouch, 04 was a helluva draft.

 

[DisturbedShifty]

What this tell me is that we haven't had a front office that can't evaluate talent for ****. Don't get me wrong, same could be said for a majority of the teams in the NFL. But to me this means when Ross goes to replace Sparano and company, it needs to be with a front office that is good at recognizing rookie talent.

 

[The New Guy]

Rodgers was a little misleading: he was either 1A or 1B of the QBs depending which guru was selecting and a preemptive pick to go top 10 if not earlier. Otherwise he wouldn't have been sitting there embarrassed at RCMusicHall. He could have as easily gone #1 to SF, but certainly should have gone either #2 to us, or #5 to TB/Gruden, 2 QB hungry teams sitting with AJ Feeley and Brian Griese. No one else needed a QB as a top priority including Ted Thompson but that's what makes him such an insightful GM. All these arguments of "well how good could he be if he went 24th?" are BS cause he should have gone 1st, 2nd or 5th if not for all the brainfarting.

Damn, considering Schaub is no slouch, 04 was a helluva draft.

I agree, but it is just another example of the better QB being the 2nd choice.

 

[HarryBagpipe]

Somewhat misleading. Number one picks have different grades year to year. Just because Tim Couch and Peyton Manning were both picked one doesnt mean that they were thought of as similiar prospects. How about we do a list of quarterbacks that were taken number one that graded similar to Andrew Luck. That would be Manning and Elway. Lets also expand it to number one picks at any position with similar draft grades as Andrew Luck. That would be Orlando Pace and Bo Jackson. I think Deion Sanders and Suh had similar grades but they werent picked one for various reasons namely St. Louis wanted a QB and 3 hall of famers were picked ahead of Sanders.

Ill take my chances.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

You can do this with every position and you'll find that the best player is often not the first one selected. It's nothing more than a case of mathematical odds working themselves out.

A lot of these QB's shouldn't have been the first one selected, nor had any business being a 1st round pick to begin with.

If you really want to learn something, learn WHY certain quarterbacks were taken #1 overall, or ended up being the first QB selected. Not all QB's that were #1 overall picks are equal. Not all 1st round QB's are equal.

A lot of these QB's who busted a decade ago could play in the NFL now with the current rules in place, along with the influx of spread principles being rampid in the NFL. A majority of these QB's were coming from spread offenses in college that simply didn't translate to the pro game, because the pro game was vastly different 10 years ago than it is now.

 

[ANUFan]

Let's find a franchise Qb

Great thread OP! Lets try and do what scouts are payed alot of money to try and figure out...Drafting a Franchise QB, unfortuantely i only saw a few of the QBs on the list play while they were in college so those that saw a majority of them play please weight in. Overalll

1) Is it more about individual Skill Set compared to Organizational makeup(coaching, scheme, players etc)?

IMO i think the #1 thing for most successful QBs is their overall skill set(pre-draft)( How they naturally read defenses, handle pressure, decision making etc). Someone like Payton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaaron Rogers i think from a purely skill set evaluation would have been successful pretty much anywhere. I think its been more about what they brought than what was given to them...Thoughts?

 

[The New Guy]

Let's find a franchise Qb

Great thread OP! Lets try and do what scouts are payed alot of money to try and figure out...Drafting a Franchise QB, unfortuantely i only saw a few of the QBs on the list play while they were in college so those that saw a majority of them play please weight in. Overalll

1) Is it more about individual Skill Set compared to Organizational makeup(coaching, scheme, players etc)?

IMO i think the #1 thing for most successful QBs is their overall skill set(pre-draft)( How they naturally read defenses, handle pressure, decision making etc). Someone like Payton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaaron Rogers i think from a purely skill set evaluation would have been successful pretty much anywhere. I think its been more about what they brought than what was given to them...Thoughts?

That's hard to say. Certainly what they bring from a skill point is the most important, but I do believe that the team they get drafted by, the coach they have, and the players that are around them play a big role in the success or failure of a player. I don't know if Alex Smith can completely turn things around, but he is playing better than he ever has.

Somewhat misleading. Number one picks have different grades year to year. Just because Tim Couch and Peyton Manning were both picked one doesnt mean that they were thought of as similiar prospects. How about we do a list of quarterbacks that were taken number one that graded similar to Andrew Luck. That would be Manning and Elway. Lets also expand it to number one picks at any position with similar draft grades as Andrew Luck. That would be Orlando Pace and Bo Jackson. I think Deion Sanders and Suh had similar grades but they werent picked one for various reasons namely St. Louis wanted a QB and 3 hall of famers were picked ahead of Sanders.

Ill take my chances.

Manning and Leaf were similar prospects. Couch and McNabb were similar prospects. A. Smith and A. Rodgers were similar prospects. More times than not, the better QB was 2nd or 3rd choice.

 

[ANUFan]

That's hard to say. Certainly what they bring from a skill point is the most important, but I do believe that the team they get drafted by, the coach they have, and the players that are around them play a big role in the success or failure of a player. I don't know if Alex Smith can completely turn things around, but he is playing better than he ever has.

I'm not discounting their respective organizations and all that it encompasses(coordinators, players etc) it goes without questions their are lots of variables involve ..we all get and know that. My query is simple asking if you took those Qbs i mentioned and had them drafted by other orginizations what are the chances their still elite? IMO i think for the most part they still would stand out! Agree? Disagree?

Adding to what your saying i would say their are categories of QBs

1)Qbs that would be elite more or less no matter what(simply because of their make-up)
Ex. Manning, Brady, Big-Ben, A.Rogers

2)Qbs that would be good based on 50% talent and 50% organizational makeup (Most Qbs IMO)
Ex. Alex Smith(maybe), Chad Henne,Vick, Romo

3) Qbs that would suck no matter what
Ex. Tim Ratey, Brock Berlin etc

 

[HarryBagpipe]

That's hard to say. Certainly what they bring from a skill point is the most important, but I do believe that the team they get drafted by, the coach they have, and the players that are around them play a big role in the success or failure of a player. I don't know if Alex Smith can completely turn things around, but he is playing better than he ever has.




Manning and Leaf were similar prospects. Couch and McNabb were similar prospects. A. Smith and A. Rodgers were similar prospects. More times than not, the better QB was 2nd or 3rd choice.

Manning and Leaf were never similar prospects. Couch and McNabb, A. Smith and A. Rodgers werent the same type of prospect as Andrew Luck. There is no similar prospect to Luck in this draft or for that matter in the last 15 years. As TeddSlimm said before, look at why certain qbs were picked one. You'll find many of them werent thought of as much until the end of their last college season and up until the combine. In many of the drafts you mentioned the number one pick was in doubt up until the name was called. Luck has been touted as the number one pick since last year. He has undeniably held his status all through this year and will with a doubt be the number one pick in this years draft.

Do you know how rare it is for a prospect to hold that kind of draft status for that long of a period of time. Trust me, if luck wasnt in this draft, there wouldnt be a suck for barkley or lose for landry movement going on

 

[Clipse]

Not all 1st round QB's pan out. No ****. Neither does every 1st round (name position here). What I do know, is there are a hell of a lot more starter/franchise quality QB's coming out of the 1st round than all the other ones combined. And you're not getting franchise QB's in trades or in free agency either.

 

[Clipse]

Manning and Leaf were similar prospects.

Never. Leaf was a head case, still is. He didn't give a ****, no intangibles, no work ethic.

 

[Ferretsquig]

Let's find a franchise Qb

Great thread OP! Lets try and do what scouts are payed alot of money to try and figure out...Drafting a Franchise QB, unfortuantely i only saw a few of the QBs on the list play while they were in college so those that saw a majority of them play please weight in. Overalll

1) Is it more about individual Skill Set compared to Organizational makeup(coaching, scheme, players etc)?

IMO i think the #1 thing for most successful QBs is their overall skill set(pre-draft)( How they naturally read defenses, handle pressure, decision making etc). Someone like Payton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaaron Rogers i think from a purely skill set evaluation would have been successful pretty much anywhere. I think its been more about what they brought than what was given to them...Thoughts?

Watching Griese, Brady, and Henne in college running the same offense and I'm sure most people came away with the impression that the best prospect of the three was Henne. Henne three years after graduating looks like the same QB while Brady becomes an all pro. How can you know? Alex Smith was supposed to be a very bright kid who had all the necessary physical attributes but six years later can still look like a complete idiot on the field. Maybe Smith saw that first 10 million land in his checking account and decided to go party while Brady spent every waking moment poring over the film.

A player that shows significant improvement from year to year in college and lands in a stable situation in the pros seems to have the highest probability of success, but even that is no accurate predictor.